Ten Reasons Why High Definition DVD Formats Have Already Failed

[en sabur nur]

I agree wholeheartedly with your editorial, as well.

 

[Dezoris]

This was mentioned in somewhat in the article, however I wanted to expand on this.

Newer technologies today outside the A/V industry that have had trouble such as Natural Gas powered cars, and soon Hydrogen a have the same problem.

The technology is there, but there is no infrastructure in place to to sell them.

The HDDVD and BluRay disks are a novelty at best.
HDTV is a novelty as well.

The content providers are not serious about selling programming or software.
I remember my dad telling me when he first bought a LaserDisc player in the early 80s that by the time I was 20 everything would be HD.
25 years later, we have not even scratched the surface. HDTV and programming is premium service.

Without an infrastructure setup to provide HD content the mass market will not buy the hardware.

There is very little consumer confidence in adopting any new technology right now. The only people to blame are the companies who put the R&D into the hardware but did not make sure we could use it first.

People want to buy and consume, it's our nature. But the companies can't figure out how to tap the market and it shows.

 

[jonnythan]

This was mentioned in somewhat in the article, however I wanted to expand on this.

Newer technologies today outside the A/V industry that have had trouble such as Natural Gas powered cars, and soon Hydrogen a have the same problem.

The technology is there, but there is no infrastructure in place to to sell them.

The HDDVD and BluRay disks are a novelty at best.
HDTV is a novelty as well.

The content providers are not serious about selling programming or software.
I remember my dad telling me when he first bought a LaserDisc player in the early 80s that by the time I was 20 everything would be HD.
25 years later, we have not even scratched the surface. HDTV and programming is premium service.

Without an infrastructure setup to provide HD content the mass market will not buy the hardware.

There is very little consumer confidence in adopting any new technology right now. The only people to blame are the companies who put the R&D into the hardware but did not make sure we could use it first.

People want to buy and consume, it's our nature. But the companies can't figure out how to tap the market and it shows.

Are you nuts?

They sell HD DVD and Blu-Ray at existing stores that sell DVDs. There's no additional "infrastructure" that is needed.

HDTV is a novelty as well? WTF? ABC, NBC, CBS, and Fox are currently distributing HDTV via local broadcast to an area that covers 90% of the nation's population. Cable and satellite networks across the country are beaming HDTV to everyone who wants it. It's free. It's not premium.

It's difficult to buy a new TV that's *not* an HDTV. There are millions of HDTVs in this country already. They are all over commercials and on the front page of every ad from every electronics retailer from Tweeter to Best Buy to Wal Mart and Target.

HDTV is *here*. It has *already* been adopted.

 

[renindy]

Good Article

I agree with the primary points of your editorial. Ironically, the root cause of the problem with the technological rollout, isn't the technology itself.

But with the leaders of the companies/consortiums being unwilling to work to make this move forward. We live in a time where there is becoming an endless fragmentation with respect to compatibilities, formats, etc, and this rollout could have been a unifying factor.

Whilst much criticsism has been sent towards TV broadcasters in the 80s and 90s with respect to HDTV rollout. It has been pointed out in this thread that in most markets, TODAY, free Over the Air HDTV (sometimes 1080i in Dolby Digital 5.1) is being broadcast by multiple networks each nearly night during "prime". Something that can be enjoyed now, in 720p 480p, or 1080i.

Unfortunately, there appears to be no-one reaching across the aisle in any shape or form, with the HD-DVD vs BluRay. Its sad, in that, this techology *could* be a substantial leap forward if handled properly. We've all seen how a well mastered standard def 16x9 DVD can look extremely good. I suspect that a well mastered High-def DVD, with 4 to 5 times the number of picture information, could look more dazzling still. Yet, we may not ever get to know this. Or ever see the Full potential of High Definition.

Perhaps the big corporation & studios (with their beautiful analog film masters deteriorating) are hanging on to their last bastions of power. Yet, they don't realise, they would benefit from enthusiasts & subsequently the masses, purchasing & enjoying their movies in a manner much closer to the way they were meant to be seen. And the development of a standardised digital archival medium, can help with the restoration of many of the classics that are needed today.

Time may heal this wound somewhat, or it may get shuffled under the rug & abandoned altogether in favor of "convenient" hand held video players, etc. But SACD, DVD-A have proven that you can actually turn the consumer off, even with a potentially superior product.

The solution will require industry leaders to put Pride aside, while of course not neglecting profits, and get on with this thing.
Or else we all may wind up recording the high def movie on our home computers and spend endless time chopping out commercials, then archiving it later. Not at lot of joy in that.

Thanks to forums like audioholics that foster discussion, and provide an avenue that I believe seeks the truth, which uses their resources to cut throught the "snake oil" hype that dominates our beloved internet.

Keep up the good work.

Don R.
Indianapolis

 

[web_maven]

There is a new standard.

Why on Earth would you buy HD-DVD or Blue-Ray the technology came too late in the game. If it was to have any chance they needed to do this about 2 years ago.

Take a look at SanDisk's upcoming product line. HCSD (High capacity Secure Digital) right now the product only goes up to 8GB but they will release a 32GB card (I am not sure when). The player would be a glorified card reader with some software and connections to your home theater (I am sure Apple will add it to their ITV box).

I predict that the future will be as follows, I would go as far to say that you would own one (maybe two or more) of these cards, walk into Wal-Mart or your local grocery store and while you shop you can rent a movie or two and download the video to your HCSD memory card. Or for that matter go and download it on your computer (ITunes did great with music why not video).

I believe the on-demand stuff will take off (BIG) but you can't take it with you. You will always need portable media for road trips and the like. (Having a DVD player in my mini-van made many trips much easier)

By having the HCSD card you will eliminate mini-DVD/DVD/HD-DVD/Blue-Ray disk production. So the movie industry will save money there, You can offer the title in different formats like iPOD, PDAs, 4:3, 16:9, PAL, 480p, 780p, 1080i, 1080p, etc... The movie industry will save a boat loads of money because they do not have to warehouse extra disks, the local stores will save space and we will have the problem of losing the memory cards. And if a new standard appears on the market they would be able to make a switch quicker and easier.

I see this technology as the simple, convenient and best solution for all. And I am not sure why they still make mini-DVD video cameras when you have these memory cards that are cheap, reusable and have more storage. Come on people optical media is so 80’s.

For whoever is reading this I thank you for listening to my dribble.

 

[BMXTRIX]

Why on Earth would you buy HD-DVD or Blue-Ray the technology came too late in the game. If it was to have any chance they needed to do this about 2 years ago.

Take a look at SanDisk's upcoming product line. HCSD (High capacity Secure Digital) right now the product only goes up to 8GB but they will release a 32GB card (I am not sure when). The player would be a glorified card reader with some software and connections to your home theater (I am sure Apple will add it to their ITV box).

I predict that the future will be as follows, I would go as far to say that you would own one (maybe two or more) of these cards, walk into Wal-Mart or your local grocery store and while you shop you can rent a movie or two and download the video to your HCSD memory card. Or for that matter go and download it on your computer (ITunes did great with music why not video).

I believe the on-demand stuff will take off (BIG) but you can't take it with you. You will always need portable media for road trips and the like. (Having a DVD player in my mini-van made many trips much easier)

By having the HCSD card you will eliminate mini-DVD/DVD/HD-DVD/Blue-Ray disk production. So the movie industry will save money there, You can offer the title in different formats like iPOD, PDAs, 4:3, 16:9, PAL, 480p, 780p, 1080i, 1080p, etc... The movie industry will save a boat loads of money because they do not have to warehouse extra disks, the local stores will save space and we will have the problem of losing the memory cards. And if a new standard appears on the market they would be able to make a switch quicker and easier.

I see this technology as the simple, convenient and best solution for all. And I am not sure why they still make mini-DVD video cameras when you have these memory cards that are cheap, reusable and have more storage. Come on people optical media is so 80’s.

For whoever is reading this I thank you for listening to my dribble.

Flash based memory is good, but is not where it needs to be yet to accomplish what you are talking about. If someone wants to build a video library collection, they still need terrabytes of storage space for a couple hundred DVDs. HD movies are pushing 25 to 40+ GB per disc, which works out to a hundred movies occupying about 3TB of storage space.

So, yes, eventually HD downloads and HD direct to storage rentals will become the 'norm', it is still about ten years off from reality. Don't forget the simply having a card isn't enough, you need to have the ability to pull the data off the card and the processing horsepower to convert that data into audio and video that your TV can use.

I fully believe that what you are describing will happen, but it won't be for years and years. The effort necessary for studios to get behind a format is phenomenal. Just because it is 'possible' it doesn't mean that it is going to be accepted by the industry to even allow us to adopt it.

Then there is still the matter of how many people LIKE to own their discs.

 

[jonnythan]

Why on Earth would you buy HD-DVD or Blue-Ray the technology came too late in the game. If it was to have any chance they needed to do this about 2 years ago.

Take a look at SanDisk's upcoming product line. HCSD (High capacity Secure Digital) right now the product only goes up to 8GB but they will release a 32GB card (I am not sure when). The player would be a glorified card reader with some software and connections to your home theater (I am sure Apple will add it to their ITV box).

I predict that the future will be as follows, I would go as far to say that you would own one (maybe two or more) of these cards, walk into Wal-Mart or your local grocery store and while you shop you can rent a movie or two and download the video to your HCSD memory card. Or for that matter go and download it on your computer (ITunes did great with music why not video).

I believe the on-demand stuff will take off (BIG) but you can't take it with you. You will always need portable media for road trips and the like. (Having a DVD player in my mini-van made many trips much easier)

By having the HCSD card you will eliminate mini-DVD/DVD/HD-DVD/Blue-Ray disk production. So the movie industry will save money there, You can offer the title in different formats like iPOD, PDAs, 4:3, 16:9, PAL, 480p, 780p, 1080i, 1080p, etc... The movie industry will save a boat loads of money because they do not have to warehouse extra disks, the local stores will save space and we will have the problem of losing the memory cards. And if a new standard appears on the market they would be able to make a switch quicker and easier.

I see this technology as the simple, convenient and best solution for all. And I am not sure why they still make mini-DVD video cameras when you have these memory cards that are cheap, reusable and have more storage. Come on people optical media is so 80’s.

For whoever is reading this I thank you for listening to my dribble.

An 8G flash card is $70 and has less than 1/5 the capacity of a BD.

They still make Mini DVD video cameras because, oh, Mini DVD has been around for years and is cheap whereas 2GB+ flash cards have only been affordable for a year or two and can't be played back anywhere except a computer?

 

[stratman]

They way things are panning out, HDTV will be the norm, 1080p will be the norm, Bluray will be the norm and a host of other innovations that are coming down the pike will be the norm, all it takes is patience. Early adopters are a factor in bringing these innovations on line for they're the ones that help the industry recover the initial investment faster, then as mainstream follows, the market balances itself, prices come down the "cutting edge" product becomes "everyday" and innovation marches on untill the next cycle begins again. Sure some formats are weeded out, but the resilient always become the norm.

 

[web_maven]

I understand what you’re saying but I don't think it is as far off as you say. Take a look at this link. These types of products just need investors with vision.

http://www.medeawiz.com/products/Dv68.htm

Now before you say anything, yes its DVD quality not HD, but this is a step in the right direction. I was thinking more of rentals as to owning and to tell you the truth the more I own a movie the less I watch it. And also take a look at how fast SD media costs have dropped. About two years ago you can buy a 512 SD card for $50 now it's what $25 and dropping. And if you’re talking about buying a Blue-Ray movie for $50.00 then what is the difference if you pay $50 for a BR or $50 for an SD, by a "Write once Read many" SD memory card (Please note this is made up as an example). You can buy the Quicken Tax program for $30 and get a 256MB jumpdrive with the software on it, so you see the companies are seeing the cost effectiveness of this type of memory.

Don't for get as demand increase the prices will drop (I still can't buy a 50 stack of DL DVD for under $25 how long have they been out?) Current DVD are about 8GB so an 8GB memory card I can get a great picture and all I have to do is plug it into my computer to get a new movie how cool would that be. Remember it not quality that drives the market is convenience & cost (look a NetFlix people don’t even what to drive to Blockbuster any more). I have an HD wide screen TV and I like the quality of my DVD I have no intension of buying either HDD or BR I just don't see a need and if the Movie industry would stop putting junk on the DVD disk and increase the quality of the movies the videos would look better (there is a 15GB DVD disk why not use that? I know, I know HD but how much space does a movie take? How much is junk?).

It is also obvious people are not concerned with quality because if they did then the movie industry would not have to worry about bootlegging. Many movies are over 4.7 GB but you find people shrinking the video and are happy with the lower quality videos. Don’t get me wrong I like a good quality picture but outside of the people in these types of groups the general population does not care of such things. They want the OnDemand movies and PVRs to record what they missed, they don't what to drive to the video store, and they are tired of late fees. They want it and they want it now oh and by-the-way they want it cheap.

Thank you again for reading.

 

[BMXTRIX]

I understand what you’re saying but I don't think it is as far off as you say. Take a look at this link. These types of products just need investors with vision.

http://www.medeawiz.com/products/Dv68.htm

Now before you say anything, yes its DVD quality not HD, but this is a step in the right direction. I was thinking more of rentals as to owning and to tell you the truth the more I own a movie the less I watch it. And also take a look at how fast SD media costs have dropped. About two years ago you can buy a 512 SD card for $50 now it's what $25 and dropping. And if you’re talking about buying a Blue-Ray movie for $50.00 then what is the difference if you pay $50 for a BR or $50 for an SD, by a "Write once Read many" SD memory card (Please note this is made up as an example). You can buy the Quicken Tax program for $30 and get a 256MB jumpdrive with the software on it, so you see the companies are seeing the cost effectiveness of this type of memory.

Don't for get as demand increase the prices will drop (I still can't buy a 50 stack of DL DVD for under $25 how long have they been out?) Current DVD are about 8GB so an 8GB memory card I can get a great picture and all I have to do is plug it into my computer to get a new movie how cool would that be. Remember it not quality that drives the market is convenience & cost (look a NetFlix people don’t even what to drive to Blockbuster any more). I have an HD wide screen TV and I like the quality of my DVD I have no intension of buying either HDD or BR I just don't see a need and if the Movie industry would stop putting junk on the DVD disk and increase the quality of the movies the videos would look better (there is a 15GB DVD disk why not use that? I know, I know HD but how much space does a movie take? How much is junk?).

It is also obvious people are not concerned with quality because if they did then the movie industry would not have to worry about bootlegging. Many movies are over 4.7 GB but you find people shrinking the video and are happy with the lower quality videos. Don’t get me wrong I like a good quality picture but outside of the people in these types of groups the general population does not care of such things. They want the OnDemand movies and PVRs to record what they missed, they don't what to drive to the video store, and they are tired of late fees. They want it and they want it now oh and by-the-way they want it cheap.

Thank you again for reading.

You aren't wrong, you are just off by a few years.

I fully predict that we will see Vista begin to truly usher in the age of the downloadable movie system and that we may finally begin to see networked televisions, receivers, etc. come of age. But, while the early signs are there, it is still many years before the industry will have a hope of pushing this forward as a 'standardized' format.

I can fully imagine a setup where what you describe - going to a store - to get the movie is even more than is necessary. Instead, you browse through an online video store, which works just like Netflix/Blockbuster and you setup a list of movies you want to see. Then they are downloaded, in HD quality, to your home theater PC. But, unlike current HTPCs which are dedicated (typically) to a single display, future ones will be more like big networked hard drives. You will be able to send the movie directly to any display in your home over IP... or wi-fi. At the display, 100% interference free, the movie will play back in full 1080p (or beyond) glory. The audio will go straight to your A/V receiver which will decode the music at uncompressed levels directly. No audio interconnects, no added distortion.

You decide to finish the movie upstairs? Great, you press pause, then go upstairs and press a couple buttons and finish the movie upstairs!

But, to fully develop this level of interoperability it will take years of development and serious backing by both CE and PC manufacturers with the full support of the movie industry. Heck, just getting studios to agree on things with Blu-ray and HD DVD took years to accomplish.

Plus, there really needs to be HD decoding from raw MPEG/AVC/VC-1 to a usable format on a single chip devices which are still several years away I expect.

 

[web_maven]

Well at least I got you from saying 10 years to just a few years!

I personally, will sit back and watch my DVD's by the time they decide on a format and start phasing out DVD's the new technology will be ready for consumer use and maybe at that time I will buy a new HDTV you know the kind that you will paint on your wall.

Thanks for the kind conversation (sometimes these can get out of hand)

 

[ronnie 1.8]

Not sure if it was mentioned in this thread or not, but has anyone else noticed how crappy the HD quality of some supposed HD channels are? For example, I really enjoy The Black Donnellys on NBC HD. The last 2 episodes are so bad, throughout the show it looks to me SD. It's horrible. Golf tournaments in HD (when available) always look good, late night talk shows such as Letterman or Leno always look as good as it gets. It's also common for a show to have great HD quality except when they show a close-up of an actor's face, and it seems to be more common showing women's faces. I wouldn't be surprised to find some actors have it in their contract to not show their faces close-up in HD.

 

[stratman]

Not sure if it was mentioned in this thread or not, but has anyone else noticed how crappy the HD quality of some supposed HD channels are? For example, I really enjoy The Black Donnellys on NBC HD. The last 2 episodes are so bad, throughout the show it looks to me SD. It's horrible. Golf tournaments in HD (when available) always look good, late night talk shows such as Letterman or Leno always look as good as it gets. It's also common for a show to have great HD quality except when they show a close-up of an actor's face, and it seems to be more common showing women's faces. I wouldn't be surprised to find some actors have it in their contract to not show their faces close-up in HD.

One channel that never looks HD to me is TNTH on Direct TV.

 

[renindy]

Ronnie 1.8,
Yep - there's definitely variation in HDTV. I watch primarily the free OTA broadcasts. It just underscores the fact that specifications alone, do not high quality make. How material is handled throughout the chain, is absolutely key. We'll handled 720p can look great. Badly handled 1080i, can look noisy & "upconverted". Somehow, we need someone to educate the content producers on a minimum "handling" specification to make their own productions look good. They'd benefit & the viewers would benefit.
Don

 

[clwendy]

i agree, i rather stick to my dvd player

 

[pikers]

When I pay top dollar for anything from guitars to cars there better be no issues( that's why I payed top dollars).

Ever owned a Ferrari? There can be issues with anything, and to expect otherwise reeks of a new-money mindset that is inexperienced and unreliable.

 

[RESmonkey]

BD sales are shooting up. Studios are becoming more involved. Current BD player is $499 (Sony) and you can manage an HD-DVD player for $273.

So, I disagree with some points made. Time will tell. Even if they 'fail,' people will still make use of those discs and players, since they DO give 1080p video.

 

[avaserfi]

BD sales are shooting up. Studios are becoming more involved. Current BD player is $499 (Sony) and you can manage an HD-DVD player for $273.

So, I disagree with some points made. Time will tell. Even if they 'fail,' people will still make use of those discs and players, since they DO give 1080p video.

You do forget how old this article is. Things change overtime like pricing of the gear which did used to cost 1K+ (including when the article was written).

 

[Dobs]

1080p 3D will demand the extra space!

In a couple of years James Cameron will be releasing a new film called Avatar (rumored to be 300M+ budget) that people like Spielberg are saying will revolutionize 3D cinema. There is currently a massive push by the studios for cinema chains to upgrade to 3D. By about the time this is released most people will probably be recognizing the benefits of 1080p with 1080p standardized discs (as suggested in your article) as player/viewing prices drop to mainstream levels, and Audioholics will be talking 3D for home. This is when the I believe these big-discs will be completely necessary... 1080p 3D! In the meantime, people haven't forgotten about Beta vs. VHS!
Just my 2 cents!

 

[Audioholics]

New updated article:

http://www.audioholics.com/news/editorials/10-more-reasons-hd-dvd-failed