Hahaha, this is the first time I have seen this thread (granted, I don't spend much time on this particular forum). Even when it was originally written I would have been fairly sceptical, but now it seems clear that the writer of the original piece was clearly mistaken. But then again, everything is clearing in hindsight.
HD-DVD and Blu-ray both offer a huge difference in image quality over standard DVD. Not to say that standard DVD is terrible, but having seen HD (both formats) movie content first hand, I can say that the difference is huge (as I'm sure almost everyone knows at this point). I don't own a HD disc player at the moment, and don't plan on buying one until someone comes out with a dual format player that incorporates all of the features of each format as well as having all the bugs worked out of it (also the time frame in which the companies begin using truely high quality audio and video DACs will be a big factor in my decision of when to finally pick one up). That all being said, I plan to own one this time next year if not sooner.
As far as how long the technology will last, I can't say. Its true that neither blu-ray or HD-DVD are a revolutionary technology (I suppose that could be argueable in blu-rays case), and therefore they are more likely to be succeeded by a new technology in the relatively near future (ie < 10 yrs). Personally however, I'm pretty content with 1080p and I don't see an need to upgrade past that anytime soon. Sure we can make higher resolution displays, but looking at the price/performance ratio, I think I'll be sticking with 1080p displays and sources for quite some time. Unless of course some drastic change happens in broadcasting that makes that technology completely obsolete, like TV broadcasting in something higher than 1080p (which I don't see happening in a long long loooooong time).
Due to the length of time this thread has been around, I'm sure this has already been discussed, but I didn't feel like reading all 14 pages...