Ukraine – Russia … not more of the last thread

[highfigh]

Russian journalist Andrey Zakharov stated on his Telegram channel that Prigozhin flew today from Africa to Russia and was being accompanied by the entire command staff of the Wagner Group.<<<

Wagner Group chief among passengers on crashed plane near Moscow

All ten people on board the aircraft died in the crash, according to the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry.

www.jpost.com

Why would the entire command staff be on one lane, ship, car, etc? That seems risky on a normal day, with Putin & Prigozhin being best friends.

 

[isolar8001]

Why would the entire command staff be on one lane, ship, car, etc? That seems risky on a normal day, with Putin & Prigozhin being best friends.

Something Will Riker would have never allowed.

 

[TLS Guy]

The old KGB days are still strong with Putin.

Yes, windows and poisons were just not dramatic enough this time. A missile strike and a fiery crash seen on TVs around the world were more the licket to show what a ruthless bastard he is.

 

[mtrycrafts]

I have yet to see video of that guy getting on the plane, or anyone else.
Could it be a coverup operation? A drone flight shut down so he can go into quiet exile.

 

[cpp]

Yes, windows and poisons were just not dramatic enough this time. A missile strike and a fiery crash seen on TVs around the world were more the licket to show what a ruthless bastard he is.

CIA director Bill Burns noted, Putin is the ultimate apostle of payback.

 

[Swerd]

We've all seen the video of that airplane coming down (find it on You Tube). It was an Embraer Legacy 600, executive jet capable of carrying as many as 10 people plus aircrew over a long range.

Note that the twin engines are mounted at the rear of the fuselage, near the tail. Here are what are known facts:

• The plane came down about 60 miles northwest of Moscow, as it flew at 30,000 feet, towards St. Petersburg.
• According to data from Flightradar24, the aircraft became airborne by 15:00 UTC. By approximately 15:11, it had reached an altitude of 28,000 ft (8,500 m). The aircraft maintained this altitude until 15:19, when it climbed to 30,100 ft (9,200 m). Subsequently, it descended to around 27,500 ft (8,400 m) before ascending again to 29,300 ft (8,900 m). At 15:20:14, when data transmission ceased, the aircraft had descended to 19,725 ft (6,012 m).
• As it fell, the aircraft did not dive into the ground. It appeared to be in a flat spin, trailing white vapor. No black smoke nor fire was visible. Was the vapor jet fuel?
• Different accounts said the aircraft was missing it's tail or a wing as it fell. The video was not clear enough to see which part was missing.
• Local residents near the crash site heard two distinct loud noises before seeing two vapor trails. Were they both descending?
• Upon crashing, the aircraft burned fiercely, with plenty of black smoke.
• Pieces of the aircraft, including what looked like its tail, were found more than a mile from the crash site.

It certainly seems like two or three possible explanations could explain these observations: 1) A bomb was aboard the aircraft. 2) Or, a missile shot the aircraft down. Was it a surface-to-air missile (SAM), such as a S-300? There are several S-300 launch sites near the crash area. 3) Or, did a Russian fighter fire an air-to-air missile (AAM) or two?

I don't think much of the internal bomb theory. The aircraft would have exploded and broken up at high altitude. That's not what was observed by eyewitnesses, or what appeared in the video.

It could have been a SAM, but it's trail should have been seen as it climbed, before any explosion was heard. Russian radar-guided S-300 missiles have larger warheads, and explode as the SAM nears it's target, creating a large field of fragments, like a goose gun, capable of breaking an aircraft of that size into many small pieces. The video clearly shows a recognizable aircraft fuselage, with one or both wings, with or without it's tail. And it trailed white vapor as it fell, without visible fire or black smoke.

I prefer the Russian fighter AAM idea. It would have had a much smaller warhead than a SAM. And, if the missile was infrared guided, it would have targeted the hot exhaust from the rear mounted engines. A strike from one or two AAMs would have taken out one or both engines. The explosion(s) could have broken the tail or the vertical stabilizer off, leaving the rest of the aircraft more or less intact. This would be consistent with the reported flat spin, the trailing white vapor as the aircraft fell, and would also explain the missing tail section said to have landed about a mile away from the rest of the fuselage.

I don't know what to make of the FlightRadar24 data that described the aircraft climbing, descending, then climbing, and finally descending again. Was the pilot trying to evade a Russian fighter?

 

[Mr._Clark]

General Milley said it will be some time before it is known with certainty if Prigozhin was on the plane.

>>>It may be some time before Western intelligence agencies can say with certainty whether Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group, was aboard the plane that crashed in Russia, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Thursday.<<<

Was Prigozhin Killed in the Plane Crash? It Will Take Time to Confirm, Milley Says. (Published 2023)

The Wagner Group has not confirmed its leader’s death, nor has the Russian government.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Swerd]

General Milley said it will be some time before it is known with certainty if Prigozhin was on the plane.

>>>It may be some time before Western intelligence agencies can say with certainty whether Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group, was aboard the plane that crashed in Russia, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Thursday.<<<

Was Prigozhin Killed in the Plane Crash? It Will Take Time to Confirm, Milley Says. (Published 2023)

The Wagner Group has not confirmed its leader’s death, nor has the Russian government.

www.nytimes.com

Yes, there's that somewhat pesky issue too. I think it's likely that Prigozhin is dead and his body is somewhere. Perhaps it's on the moon, and perhaps Prigozhin was on board that airplane. After shooting it down, Putin is having his taxidermist prepare it in private as a gruesome trophy.

I hear echoes of "If you come after me, I'm coming after you." Imagine a plaque on the trophy saying in Russian, Если ты пойдешь за мной, я пойду за тобой.

 

[mtrycrafts]

Yes, that white looking vapor is fuel, most likely. Similar as when planes dump it in flight on purpose.
Looking at that fuzzy video online, looks like a wing is missing, spinning and at points coming straight down. Perhaps towards the end of its journey it went back into a flat spin.
A clip online shows one engine in a fairly horizonal position with the front a bit dug into the ground. Slid some.

 

[Swerd]

Yes, that white looking vapor is fuel, most likely. Similar as when planes dump it in flight on purpose.
Looking at that fuzzy video online, looks like a wing is missing, spinning and at points coming straight down. Perhaps towards the end of its journey it went back into a flat spin.
A clip online shows one engine in a fairly horizonal position with the front a bit dug into the ground. Slid some.

There is a bewildering variety of videos, and local residents' descriptions of what they thought they saw.

I did read one Pentagon insider's belief that a surface-to-air missile (SAM) launch would have been detected by infrared sensors in one of our surveillance satellites. But that apparently didn't happen. Hence, they don't believe that the plane was brought down by a SAM.

 

[mtrycrafts]

There is a bewildering variety of videos, and local residents' descriptions of what they thought they saw.

I did read one Pentagon insider's belief that a surface-to-air missile (SAM) launch would have been detected by infrared detection in one of our surveillance satellites. But that apparently didn't happen. Hence, they don't believe that the plane was brought down by a SAM.

That altitude changes reminds me that it could have been an internal struggle with pilots by who knows whom. Someone could have taken over like that 9/11 flight by the passengers.

 

[Mojo Navigator]

The FSB or GRU likely planted a bomb on the plane. The decision was made when the Kremlin realized the entire Wagner leadership was on board. It would be interesting to learn how the Kremlin lured all of them from Africa to St. Petersburg. No independent or Brazilian investigators will be allowed to analyze the wreckage, for obvious reasons.

Temporarily, this takes some of the heat off Putin. However, he still has a failing SMO in Ukraine. Many top Russian generals are either dead or missing. Some are under house arrest. Prigozhin had many admirers within the Russian military. The morale in the military is very low. He is an international war criminal. His economy is crashing. The oligarchs are losing a lot of money. And Trump's odds of winning the Presidency in 2024 are fading.

Then there are those thousands of loyal Wagner mercenaries looking to avenge their leader. Prigozhin was becoming a "folk hero" to many Russians, especially young men. No doubt that in the event of Prigozhin's demise a generous bounty is available for anyone able to eliminate Putin.

Have a nice day !

 

[Swerd]

MOSCOW, Aug 30 (Reuters) – The Kremlin said on Wednesday that investigators were considering the possibility that the plane carrying mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was downed on purpose, the first explicit acknowledgement that he may have been assassinated.

Kremlin says Prigozhin plane may have been downed on purpose

The statement was the Kremlin's first explicit acknowledgement that he may have been assassinated.

www.reuters.com

The only surprise is that Russia is admitting this. Russia has an ugly record of shooting down unarmed civilian passenger airplanes. They haven't yet admitted any responsibility for doing it, but have essentially said so passively.

Just how the plane "was downed on purpose" no longer matters.

 

[Mr._Clark]

This thread describes the conditions at the front line from the perspective a Ukrainian solder. Not fun.

>>>Whoever you may be, an armored assault group, evacuation team, aerial or infantry reconnaissance, your movement is visible from afar. The enemy has long been preparing. Equipment and personnel can be spotted from a distance and targeted. . . . There's a limited number of access roads, logistical routes. Everything's been calibrated and fired upon repeatedly every day. You certainly can be spotted. Carrying out the mission while maintaining complete concealment from the enemy is mostly impossible . . . On one stretch of the Mariupol highway, anti-tank fortifications have been installed. We're not just talking about trenches. There's an entire system of trenches, dugouts, and even underground tunnels in some places . . .

In each tree line, there's a network of trenches and firing positions for various weapons. AGS, DShK, ATGMs. Anti-tank ditches and mine obstacles stretch across the fields. From regular TM and POM mines to more "sophisticated" ones, all lying in wait for infantry. . . .

The Russians are establishing firing points (AGS, heavy machine guns), and they mine the routes to them. They themselves move along designated paths. Our positions in the liberated territory are surrounded by mines and tripwires. . . .

Enemy ATGM operators position cameras in advance of their positions. This way, they can spot targets (all types of vehicles) in advance and engage them effectively. If successful, artillery finishes off the targets. Alternatively, they might start with air force, followed by artillery. . . .

KAB's [guided bombs] are one of the biggest fears. The Russians use them extensively. I can't speak to their accuracy, but the weaponry is powerful. They attempt to target logistics and command centers, just as we do. . . .

The aerial reconnaissance linked system Orlan-Zala-Supercam is effective and causing issues. They identify targets and launch Lances, releasing them in swarms along with KAB's. They attempt to break through and hunt down vehicles. The recaptured positions are even more calibrated. Bombs are not spared. No lack of mines either. The tree line where one of the crews was operating was simply leveled. . . .<<<

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1695563964158025974

 

[Trell]

In the recent attack by the Ukrainians a submarine was apparently badly damaged while lying in a dry-dock for maintenance/repairs.

Ukraine says Russian naval vessels badly damaged in Crimea attack

Ukraine said it seriously damaged two Russian naval vessels and struck port infrastructure in Sevastopol on Wednesday, in what appeared to be the biggest attack of the war on the home of the Russian navy's Black Sea Fleet.

www.reuters.com

Here are a couple of pictures allegedly of the submarine, and while I certainly by far is no expert, the submarine does seem very badly damaged and possibly not repairable. In any case, it won't launch any missiles for quite some time.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1703728356208881975

 

[Mr._Clark]

In the recent attack by the Ukrainians a submarine was apparently badly damaged while lying in a dry-dock for maintenance/repairs.

. . .

Here are a couple of pictures allegedly of the submarine, and while I certainly by far is no expert, the submarine does seem very badly damaged and possibly not repairable. In any case, it won't launch any missiles for quite some time.

As far as I can tell, that sub has been toasted.

>>>Two different authorities on submarine warfare, undersea warfare analyst H. I. Sutton and former U.S. Navy submariner Aaron Amick, both tweeted today that they consider the Improved Kilo class boat damaged beyond repair.<<<

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-submarine-shows-massive-damage-after-ukrainian-strike

There have been numerous reports that Storm Shadows were used in the attack, but I'm not sure if this has been confirmed. From thedrive.com:

>>>There have been claims that the missiles used were air-launched Storm Shadow and/or SCALP-EG standoff missiles that can be launched by Ukrainian Air Force Su-24 Fencer strike/reconnaissance aircraft.<<<

 

[Swerd]

That does look like a Kilo class Russian sub. If that hole in the photo has penetrated the pressure hull of the boat, which is inside the outer hull, that boat isn't diving – and surfacing again – anytime soon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilo-class_submarine

I don't know if it's repairable or not. Back in my navy days, I knew about radios & radio communications on Soviet subs, but nothing else. We do have a former submariner here on AH who might know if this damage is terminal. Paging @GO-NAD!

 

[GO-NAD!]

That does look like a Kilo class Russian sub. If that hole in the photo has penetrated the pressure hull of the boat, which is inside the outer hull, that boat isn't diving – and surfacing again – anytime soon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilo-class_submarine

I don't know if it's repairable or not. Back in my navy days, I knew about radios & radio communications on Soviet subs, but nothing else. We do have a former submariner here on AH who might know if this damage is terminal. Paging @GO-NAD!

From the photo I saw, she's done. It looks like the missle penetrated the hull before detonating and the resultant fire burned for quite a while. Even if the interior could be repaired, the tempering of the pressure hull would be so compromised by the heat that her diving depth would have to be severely restricted.

It would be cheaper and more practical to build a new boat.

 

[lovinthehd]

Kremlin says Prigozhin plane may have been downed on purpose

The statement was the Kremlin's first explicit acknowledgement that he may have been assassinated.

www.reuters.com

The only surprise is that Russia is admitting this. Russia has an ugly record of shooting down unarmed civilian passenger airplanes. They haven't yet admitted any responsibility for doing it, but have essentially said so passively.

Just how the plane "was downed on purpose" no longer matters.

Depends who they want to blame perhaps...

 

[Mr._Clark]

Depends who they want to blame perhaps...

Budanov, commander of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR), stated that "I wouldn’t be in a hurry to say he’s killed."

>>>TWZ: Who killed former Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin?
KB: I wouldn’t be in a hurry to say he’s killed.
TWZ: You think he might be alive?
KB: I just wouldn't rush with that question. I don't possess any confirmation.
TWZ: You don’t have confirmation that he’s dead yet?
KB: We don’t possess that.<<<

Exclusive Interview With Ukraine's Spy Boss From His D.C. Hotel Room

Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov opens up about the ongoing counteroffensive, attacks inside Russia, warnings about Abrams tank usage and much more.

www.thedrive.com

This is an interesting interview. Budanov discusses the attacks on Moscow, attacks on Russian air bases, attacks on Wagner in Sudan, the problems mines cause for armor, the need for longer range missiles and more artillery, Musk/Starlink, etc.

He also states that the Russians are devoting significant resources to Bakhmut, which limits their ability defend other areas.

>>>TWZ: Is the operation in Bakhmut designed to pin down Russian forces and keep them from reinforcing the Berdiansk and Melitopol attack axes?
KB: For sure, and it has delivered the result that we wanted. For example, the Russians recently redeployed their only reserve force - the 25th Army - which was just recently raised and hasn't completed its creation. Now it's redeployed to roughly the north of Bakhmut and that's the place where it's going to be buried.
TWZ: How many forces does the 25th Army have?
KB: About 15,000 men. It’s not that much. And besides that, the threat for Russians to lose Bakhmut makes them redeploy at all times additional and additional forces to the Bakhmut area, which of course drains their resources from other directions like the south. . . .

TWZ: Speaking of which, are the Russians able to reinforce their defense against the Burdiansk and Melitopol pushes? Are they able to bring enough troops there to prevent Ukrainian advances, given all the stresses?
KB: So we're going back to the previous question. All that they have already have been thrown into the fire. And now all the backbone of current Russian airborne troops is in defense and trying to deter the movement of our offensive groupings in the south. Before that, there were units of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade. That brigade was completely defeated, completely smashed, and now they have withdrawn being replaced by airborne troops.<<<

In other words, it looks like Russia is throwing new recruits into the meat grinder to replace the other troops that were fed into the meat grinder to defend Bakhmut.