Ukraine – Russia … not more of the last thread

[Mr._Clark]

According to this report, Ukraine is unlikely to reach Melitopol and cut off Russia's land bridge to Crimea any time soon.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/

According to the article, the U.S. anticipted significant losses in a concentrated attack, but thought Ukraine could push through. However, Ukraine switched to smaller more dispersed attacks to reduce losses.

>>>Ukraine launched the counteroffensive in early June hoping to replicate its stunning success in last fall’s push through the Kharkiv region.

But in the first week of fighting, Ukraine incurred major casualties against Russia’s well-prepared defenses despite having a range of newly acquired Western equipment, including U.S. Bradley Fighting Vehicles, German-made Leopard 2 tanks and specialized mine-clearing vehicles.

Joint war games conducted by the U.S., British and Ukrainian militaries anticipated such losses but envisioned Kyiv accepting the casualties as the cost of piercing through Russia’s main defensive line, said U.S. and Western officials.
But Ukraine chose to stem the losses on the battlefield and switch to a tactic of relying on smaller units to push forward across different areas of the front. That resulted in Ukraine making incremental gains in different pockets over the summer.<<<

 

[Mr._Clark]

>>>Ukraine launched the counteroffensive in early June hoping to replicate its stunning success in last fall’s push through the Kharkiv region.

But in the first week of fighting, Ukraine incurred major casualties against Russia’s well-prepared defenses despite having a range of newly acquired Western equipment, including U.S. Bradley Fighting Vehicles, German-made Leopard 2 tanks and specialized mine-clearing vehicles.

Joint war games conducted by the U.S., British and Ukrainian militaries anticipated such losses but envisioned Kyiv accepting the casualties as the cost of piercing through Russia’s main defensive line, said U.S. and Western officials.
But Ukraine chose to stem the losses on the battlefield and switch to a tactic of relying on smaller units to push forward across different areas of the front. That resulted in Ukraine making incremental gains in different pockets over the summer.<<<

Rob Lee is pushing back on the idea that Ukraine was too risk averse.

>>>There will be many counterfactuals after this offensive, but I wouldn't blame risk aversion. Ukraine has attempted several company and battalion armored assaults but Russian anti-tank capabilities just proved too strong. Ukraine probably would have just taken heavier casualties.<<<

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1693885240085757980

For clarity, Rob's tweet was in response to an article by FT, not the WaPo article I posted.

 

[GO-NAD!]

Rob Lee is pushing back on the idea that Ukraine was too risk averse.

>>>There will be many counterfactuals after this offensive, but I wouldn't blame risk aversion. Ukraine has attempted several company and battalion armored assaults but Russian anti-tank capabilities just proved too strong. Ukraine probably would have just taken heavier casualties.<<<

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1693885240085757980

For clarity, Rob's tweet was in response to an article by FT, not the WaPo article I posted.

US officials are apparently pretty generous with the lives of Ukrainian troops.

 

[highfigh]

US officials are apparently pretty generous with the lives of Ukrainian troops.

Similar to a line from Braveheart, when Wallace's group was moving up- one of the King's people asked if the archers should fire more volleys and was told "Send the Irish- arrows cost money".

 

[Steve81]

A thought… but first a little background:

Russia’s War Against Ukraine is Catalyzing Internet Fragmentation

After its invasion of Ukraine, concerns flared over a decoupling of Russia from the global internet. This has not materialized, but we may be witnessing the start of a more fundamental fragmentation …

www.cfr.org

ICANN is unwilling to act, but what exactly stops the US and its allies from implementing Geo IP filters against Russia, and anyone else unwilling to do the same / toe the line? Let’s see how how no-limits that bond between China and Russia really is.

 

[Mr._Clark]

US officials are apparently pretty generous with the lives of Ukrainian troops.

Yeah, the big question is what would have happened if Ukraine would have followed the original plan.

As far as I know, the conventional wisdom is that Russia's military is primarily equipped and trained to fight wars of attrition along relatively stagnant fronts using massive amounts of artillery to wear down the other side. I suspect the U.S. thought Ukraine would lose this type of war so the strategy was to break through with full force at one point, then outmaneuver the Russians.

However, Ukraine, against all odds, seems to be getting the upper hand in the artillery battles, and may actually grind Russia down.

>>>To the rear of the brutal fighting at the frontlines, Ukraine appears to be making the very best of counter-battery fire to suppress and destroy Russian artillery units.

Though Ukrainian troops continue fighting for breakthroughs in Russian defensive lines, artillery gunners are playing the long game for future artillery supremacy. Counter-battery fire, and especially radars that facilitate it with high accuracy, are playing a big part in this. It has been reported that many Russian artillery units lack counter-battery radar systems to pinpoint incoming fire, with losses of these prized systems having taken their toll in nearly year and half of fighting. In addition, due to their high-tech nature, Russia is hard-pressed to replace them with new units. . . . Russian accounts of the fighting seem to corroborate a growing Ukrainian artillery advantage in some regard. Former separatist commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky opined that Russian artillery can neither suppress the Ukrainian guns nor compete with their longer range.<<<

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyivs-growing-counter-battery-advantage

Most of the news reports I've seen miss this aspect of the war.

Also, there have been sporadic (unconfirmed) reports recently to the effect that the cluster munitions being used by Ukraine are very effective.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1692075250308022555

 

[Steve81]

Also, there have been sporadic (unconfirmed) reports recently to the effect that the cluster munitions being used by Ukraine are very effective.

Cluster munitions are a massive force multiplier basically. You could knock out an entire column of tanks with the right submunition, given that they attack the relatively unarmored top of the tank. They’d be an effective answer against Iranian speedboats pestering shipping in swarms in the Strait of Hormuz as well. Their effects on unprotected troops are quite clear.

 

[GO-NAD!]

Yeah, the big question is what would have happened if Ukraine would have followed the original plan.

As fars as I know, the conventional wisdom is that Russia's military is primarily equipped and trained to fight wars of attrition along relatively stagnant fronts using massive amounts of artillery to wear down the other side. I suspect the U.S. thought Ukraine would lose this type of war so the strategy was to break through with full force at one point, then outmaneuver the Russians.

However, Ukraine, against all odds, seems to be getting the upper hand in the artillery battles, and may actually grind Russia down.

>>>To the rear of the brutal fighting at the frontlines, Ukraine appears to be making the very best of counter-battery fire to suppress and destroy Russian artillery units.

Though Ukrainian troops continue fighting for breakthroughs in Russian defensive lines, artillery gunners are playing the long game for future artillery supremacy. Counter-battery fire, and especially radars that facilitate it with high accuracy, are playing a big part in this. It has been reported that many Russian artillery units lack counter-battery radar systems to pinpoint incoming fire, with losses of these prized systems having taken their toll in nearly year and half of fighting. In addition, due to their high-tech nature, Russia is hard-pressed to replace them with new units. . . . Russian accounts of the fighting seem to corroborate a growing Ukrainian artillery advantage in some regard. Former separatist commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky opined that Russian artillery can neither suppress the Ukrainian guns nor compete with their longer range.<<<

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyivs-growing-counter-battery-advantage

Most of the news reports I've seen miss this aspect of the war.

Also, there have been sporadic (unconfirmed) reports recently to the effect that the cluster munitions being used by Ukraine are very effective.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1692075250308022555

As Prussian Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke (the Elder) once said, "No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the main enemy forces." In other words, the enemy gets a vote and sticking to the plan was perhaps not an option. We can't forget that US/NATO offensive doctrine calls for strong air support, if not outright air supremacy. Ukraine doesn't have this and must plan accordingly.
Schrödinger’s summer offensive | Peter Caddick–Adams | The Critic Magazine

There is no doubt that President Volodymyr Zelensky is anxious to use his new military arsenal, such as the German-built Leopard-2A6A, British Challenger 2, and American M1-A1Abrahms tanks and M2 Bradley tracked infantry fighting vehicles. There is equal pressure from his NATO allies, conscious of their electorates, for Kyiv to demonstrate the effectiveness of their modern weaponry. Although it is a compelling argument to observe that by devoting around 5 per cent of their collective defence budgets, the West is writing down up to 50 per cent of Russia’s army in Ukraine, the strife should not be seen as NATO product placement for a war movie.

That brings us back to Ukraine’s so-called offensive. It is and it isn’t a major campaign. We are witnessing Schrödinger’s Summer Offensive. To date, Ukraine has been testing Russia’s defences all along the front in eastern Ukraine. Some of these have been minor probes, whilst others have involved substantial combined armour and infantry attacks. They have been supported by artillery strikes, which have suffered losses of Western-supplied equipment. Faced with dense Russian minefields, the Ukrainians have been forced to stop, dismount and clear the mine by hand to create lanes for their armour.

While I can understand NATO political and military leadership feeling a need for the Ukrainians to "get on with it", allowing the calendar to dictate strategy could have disastrous consequences.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Yeah, no doubt. I saw a report the other day entitled "Prigozhin is Back On His Soapbox Two Days After Outright Mutiny." I found myself thinking he would do well to stay away from soapboxes or buildings with more than one floor.

Oops, I forgot to mention airplanes. My bad.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin presumed dead after Russia plane crash

The Russian private military company boss was on the passenger list of the jet which came down near Moscow.

www.bbc.com

 

[Swerd]

Oops, I forgot to mention airplanes. My bad.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin presumed dead after Russia plane crash

The Russian private military company boss was on the passenger list of the jet which came down near Moscow.

www.bbc.com

That didn't take long. Yet, William Burns got it right.

"Revenge," commented CIA director William Burns, "is a dish Putin prefers served cold" – or words to that effect.

 

[mtrycrafts]

Oops, I forgot to mention airplanes. My bad.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin presumed dead after Russia plane crash

The Russian private military company boss was on the passenger list of the jet which came down near Moscow.

www.bbc.com

That is the assumption as he was on passenger list. But was he physically on the plane?
Just a few minutes ago 8 bodies found at crash sight. What happened to the other 2?

 

[isolar8001]

Thank You For Flying Putin Air !
(landings not guaranteed)

 

[mtrycrafts]

Thank You For Flying Putin Air !
(landings not guaranteed)

Sorry, the airspace is his. The plane was private but perhaps owned by Putin.

ps. it did land but not a normal landing or is it there.

 

[Swerd]

That is the assumption as he was on passenger list. But was he physically on the plane?
Just a few minutes ago 8 bodies found at crash sight. What happened to the other 2?

Prigozhin's body was never on that plane. It will be found in the Luna-25 spacecraft wreckage at the Moon's south pole.

 

[mtrycrafts]

Prigozhin's body was never on that plane. It will be found in the Luna-25 spacecraft wreckage at the Moon's south pole.

Maybe the India rover can give us all proof. Hopefully his face is up.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Here's a video that purportedly shows his plane going down.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1694415014726111333

A few months ago Prigozhin was complaining that the Russian military wasn't providing enough ammunition. An internet wag commented that the Russian military just delivered some ammunition directly to his plane.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Utkin appears to be an exceptionally ruthless and unpleasant person.

Who is Dmitry Utkin, co-founder of Wagner Forces heading to Moscow - Opoyi

Dmitry Utkin is the co-founder of Wagner Group, involved in military operations, facing sanctions for alleged abuses.

opoyi.com

Utkin was reportedly on the plane that went down.

>>>Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner group commander Dmitry Utkin were among 10 people on board a plane involved in a fatal crash north of Moscow on Wednesday, Russian civil aviation authority Rosaviatsia said. . . . Russian journalist Andrey Zakharov stated on his Telegram channel that Prigozhin flew today from Africa to Russia and was being accompanied by the entire command staff of the Wagner Group.<<<

Wagner Group chief among passengers on crashed plane near Moscow

All ten people on board the aircraft died in the crash, according to the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry.

www.jpost.com

 

[GO-NAD!]

Utkin was reportedly on the plane that went down.

>>>Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner group commander Dmitry Utkin were among 10 people on board a plane involved in a fatal crash north of Moscow on Wednesday, Russian civil aviation authority Rosaviatsia said. . . . Russian journalist Andrey Zakharov stated on his Telegram channel that Prigozhin flew today from Africa to Russia and was being accompanied by the entire command staff of the Wagner Group.<<<

Wagner Group chief among passengers on crashed plane near Moscow

All ten people on board the aircraft died in the crash, according to the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry.

www.jpost.com

Falling out of windows has apparently become too cliché.

 

[Trell]

EU has released a new survey of public opinion in EU and some other countries.

One of the several Ukraine related questions is "Financing the purchase and supply of military equipment to Ukraine" in EU where 64% agree and 31% disagree with 5% don't know. The variance among the countries is quite big, though.

Link to the survey below that has PDF downloads for each country or aggregated. I've added a snapshot of the country abbreviations and should make it easier to follow the statistics.

From the Standard Eurobarometer 99 – Spring 2023 Annex to the press release: >>>The “Spring 2023 – Standard Eurobarometer” (EB 99) was conducted through face-to-face interviews between 31 May and 21 June 2023 across the 27 EU Member States. 26,425 EU citizens were interviewed in the EU. Some questions were also asked in twelve other countries or territories.<<<

Eurobarometer

eurobarometer

europa.eu

 

[cpp]

Falling out of windows has apparently become too cliché.

The old KGB days are still strong with Putin.