I'm not clear on your last points. By that last sentence, do you mean China should not have allowed Chinese citizens to fly all over the world from Wuhan AFTER they knew they had a novel coronavirus on their hands? If not, what do you mean? And what would cutting it off at the pass entail? Should all international travel have been immediately stopped? Or, would that have been too anti-Asian?
With respect to "early surveillance to spot emerging novel infections", how would that work in locations where the ruling government is inimical to the interests of the rest of the world? China, to this day, has refused any and all outside investigation into the origins of covid-19, allowing no independent investigators there. If they, or another country, will not allow true outside monitoring of their activities, how would an emerging novel infection be spotted?
Also, with respect to preparing for the next pandemic, where would prevention of gain of function research fall into that? Other than that, what would those preparations look like?
The rest of your post seems spot on.
I tried to keep the politics out of that post, but obviously there is a political foreign relations dimension.
So really this is a WHO issue.
The risks are real. You mention China and of course they have a lot to answer for in this last pandemic. There is no doubt they hid it. I doubt this was a species jump, as no plausible animal reservoir has come to light despite diligent searches. There have been a few incidental animal hosts, but that is all. The pandemic was almost certainly due to incompetence at that WHO bio lab. So the world should seek reparations from China.
The biggest fear now is that the Avian flu will mutate and jump to humans. This would be a real disaster, as avian flu is nothing like what we are used to as influenza. Avian flu has a massive neurological dimension. If that virus jumps to humans, then the probability of millions dying grotesque agonizing deaths is high.
So that is the highest priority and of course others we can not even imagine.
China is a particular problem related to many having far too close human contact with multiple species and peculiar dietary proclivities. They are also a rogue state in many ways.
Just in the last 24 hours they have been threatening the Philippines. I am not especially worried about them helping Russia as the two are not bosom friends, as China claims part of the Russian border territory as its own. There does remain a risk. If China does aid Russia, then they need to be subjected to onerous sanctions, including a trade embargo. If China will not integrate itself better into the civilized world then we need detachment from China, and end our dependence on Chinese manufacture. The world needs regime change in China, and we have been 'in bed' with them far too long.
Returning to pandemic preparedness, there does need to be infectious disease surveillance throughout the world, and the WHO need to take the lead on this.
Mechanisms do need to be agreed to prevent the spread of dangerous novel infections throughout the world. This would include, among other measures, sealing borders and the grounding of aircraft and closure of sea ports and other ports of entry. This is something that has been espoused by CIDRAP for some time.
The other issue is research into rapid development and deployment of vaccines against dangerous novel infections.
Public heath needs far higher priority and funding right across the world. Public health departments are the infantry in this battle.
It is hard for the public to understand the devastating potential of serious novel microorganisms.
