TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Seriously, I have no life.
It is time to revisit the Covid 19 status.

There is now unequivocal evidence that the pandemic has now morphed into the endemic stage.

We now have overwhelming evidence that new mutations are not getting traction. The reason is that the last major mutations are about as infectious as it is possible for an infectious disease to get. So no new mutations can not out compete.

In addition most of the world has at least some immunity, most actually significant immunity. This is from exposure, vaccination and now more often than not both. Almost everybody has been exposed now, whether having a clinical case or not. The major issue now is that immunity appears to last just slightly under a year. However yearly vaccination with a flu shot should offer good protection. In addition there will be chance encounters which will boost immunity with or without being a symptomatic case. So this would make the case that there is no longer any advantage to going out of ones way to avoid exposure, except if you know there is a florid case.
The one exception is medical facilities where there will be excess immune compromised individuals than in the general population, so precautions are probably warranted.

This virus will now coexist with other respiratory pathogens, like influenza, RSV, parainfluenza and others.

What does need to happen now, and isn't, is preparing for the next pandemic. This is especially true for early surveillance to spot emerging novel infections.

Covid 19 should have been cut off at the pass, but I think we all know why it was not.
 
M

mtrot

Senior Audioholic
It is time to revisit the Covid 19 status.

There is now unequivocal evidence that the pandemic has now morphed into the endemic stage.

We now have overwhelming evidence that new mutations are not getting traction. The reason is that the last major mutations are about as infectious as it is possible for an infectious disease to get. So no new mutations can not out compete.

In addition most of the world has at least some immunity, most actually significant immunity. This is from exposure, vaccination and now more often than not both. Almost everybody has been exposed now, whether having a clinical case or not. The major issue now is that immunity appears to last just slightly under a year. However yearly vaccination with a flu shot should offer good protection. In addition there will be chance encounters which will boost immunity with or without being a symptomatic case. So this would make the case that there is no longer any advantage to going out of ones way to avoid exposure, except if you know there is a florid case.
The one exception is medical facilities where there will be excess immune compromised individuals than in the general population, so precautions are probably warranted.

This virus will now coexist with other respiratory pathogens, like influenza, RSV, parainfluenza and others.

What does need to happen now, and isn't, is preparing for the next pandemic. This is especially true for early surveillance to spot emerging novel infections.

Covid 19 should have been cut off at the pass, but I think we all know why it was not.
I'm not clear on your last points. By that last sentence, do you mean China should not have allowed Chinese citizens to fly all over the world from Wuhan AFTER they knew they had a novel coronavirus on their hands? If not, what do you mean? And what would cutting it off at the pass entail? Should all international travel have been immediately stopped? Or, would that have been too anti-Asian?

With respect to "early surveillance to spot emerging novel infections", how would that work in locations where the ruling government is inimical to the interests of the rest of the world? China, to this day, has refused any and all outside investigation into the origins of covid-19, allowing no independent investigators there. If they, or another country, will not allow true outside monitoring of their activities, how would an emerging novel infection be spotted?

Also, with respect to preparing for the next pandemic, where would prevention of gain of function research fall into that? Other than that, what would those preparations look like?

The rest of your post seems spot on.
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Seriously, I have no life.
I'm not clear on your last points. By that last sentence, do you mean China should not have allowed Chinese citizens to fly all over the world from Wuhan AFTER they knew they had a novel coronavirus on their hands? If not, what do you mean? And what would cutting it off at the pass entail? Should all international travel have been immediately stopped? Or, would that have been too anti-Asian?

With respect to "early surveillance to spot emerging novel infections", how would that work in locations where the ruling government is inimical to the interests of the rest of the world? China, to this day, has refused any and all outside investigation into the origins of covid-19, allowing no independent investigators there. If they, or another country, will not allow true outside monitoring of their activities, how would an emerging novel infection be spotted?

Also, with respect to preparing for the next pandemic, where would prevention of gain of function research fall into that? Other than that, what would those preparations look like?

The rest of your post seems spot on.
I tried to keep the politics out of that post, but obviously there is a political foreign relations dimension.

So really this is a WHO issue.

The risks are real. You mention China and of course they have a lot to answer for in this last pandemic. There is no doubt they hid it. I doubt this was a species jump, as no plausible animal reservoir has come to light despite diligent searches. There have been a few incidental animal hosts, but that is all. The pandemic was almost certainly due to incompetence at that WHO bio lab. So the world should seek reparations from China.

The biggest fear now is that the Avian flu will mutate and jump to humans. This would be a real disaster, as avian flu is nothing like what we are used to as influenza. Avian flu has a massive neurological dimension. If that virus jumps to humans, then the probability of millions dying grotesque agonizing deaths is high.

So that is the highest priority and of course others we can not even imagine.

China is a particular problem related to many having far too close human contact with multiple species and peculiar dietary proclivities. They are also a rogue state in many ways.

Just in the last 24 hours they have been threatening the Philippines. I am not especially worried about them helping Russia as the two are not bosom friends, as China claims part of the Russian border territory as its own. There does remain a risk. If China does aid Russia, then they need to be subjected to onerous sanctions, including a trade embargo. If China will not integrate itself better into the civilized world then we need detachment from China, and end our dependence on Chinese manufacture. The world needs regime change in China, and we have been 'in bed' with them far too long.

Returning to pandemic preparedness, there does need to be infectious disease surveillance throughout the world, and the WHO need to take the lead on this.

Mechanisms do need to be agreed to prevent the spread of dangerous novel infections throughout the world. This would include, among other measures, sealing borders and the grounding of aircraft and closure of sea ports and other ports of entry. This is something that has been espoused by CIDRAP for some time.

The other issue is research into rapid development and deployment of vaccines against dangerous novel infections.

Public heath needs far higher priority and funding right across the world. Public health departments are the infantry in this battle.

It is hard for the public to understand the devastating potential of serious novel microorganisms.
 
M

mtrot

Senior Audioholic
I tried to keep the politics out of that post, but obviously there is a political foreign relations dimension.

So really this is a WHO issue.

The risks are real. You mention China and of course they have a lot to answer for in this last pandemic. There is no doubt they hid it. I doubt this was a species jump, as no plausible animal reservoir has come to light despite diligent searches. There have been a few incidental animal hosts, but that is all. The pandemic was almost certainly due to incompetence at that WHO bio lab. So the world should seek reparations from China.

The biggest fear now is that the Avian flu will mutate and jump to humans. This would be a real disaster, as avian flu is nothing like what we are used to as influenza. Avian flu has a massive neurological dimension. If that virus jumps to humans, then the probability of millions dying grotesque agonizing deaths is high.

So that is the highest priority and of course others we can not even imagine.

China is a particular problem related to many having far too close human contact with multiple species and peculiar dietary proclivities. They are also a rogue state in many ways.

Just in the last 24 hours they have been threatening the Philippines. I am not especially worried about them helping Russia as the two are not bosom friends, as China claims part of the Russian border territory as its own. There does remain a risk. If China does aid Russia, then they need to be subjected to onerous sanctions, including a trade embargo. If China will not integrate itself better into the civilized world then we need detachment from China, and end our dependence on Chinese manufacture. The world needs regime change in China, and we have been 'in bed' with them far too long.

Returning to pandemic preparedness, there does need to be infectious disease surveillance throughout the world, and the WHO need to take the lead on this.

Mechanisms do need to be agreed to prevent the spread of dangerous novel infections throughout the world. This would include, among other measures, sealing borders and the grounding of aircraft and closure of sea ports and other ports of entry. This is something that has been espoused by CIDRAP for some time.

The other issue is research into rapid development and deployment of vaccines against dangerous novel infections.

Public heath needs far higher priority and funding right across the world. Public health departments are the infantry in this battle.

It is hard for the public to understand the devastating potential of serious novel microorganisms.
Yes, China's dynastic aspirations are really scary. They will smile and nod at you, all the while lying through their teeth. And they kind of have the West over a barrel at this point, with respect to manufacturing of so many things. I also think Taiwan is soon to be a goner, facing much the same fate as Hong Kong.

With respect to the avian flu, did you happen to see my post #8478 in this thread and the article linked there? It's pretty concerning. Thoughts on it?
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Seriously, I have no life.
Yes, China's dynastic aspirations are really scary. They will smile and nod at you, all the while lying through their teeth. And they kind of have the West over a barrel at this point, with respect to manufacturing of so many things. I also think Taiwan is soon to be a goner, facing much the same fate as Hong Kong.

With respect to the avian flu, did you happen to see my post #8478 in this thread and the article linked there? It's pretty concerning. Thoughts on it?
I'm sure we would defend Taiwan. We would have to. Hong Kong is a different case as it was on 99 year lease to the UK, and the UK was obligated to turn it back to China by international commercial law.

Yes, I did see post 8478.
 
lovinthehd

lovinthehd

Audioholic Jedi
I'm sure we would defend Taiwan. We would have to. Hong Kong is a different case as it was on 99 year lease to the UK, and the UK was obligated to turn it back to China by international commercial law.

Yes, I did see post 8478.
We have a lot of commitments to Taiwan, and hopefully we can find a way to back them up without world war. HK is much different situation in any case. That the UK was ever involved certainly has inherent problems....
 
M

mtrot

Senior Audioholic
I'm sure we would defend Taiwan. We would have to. Hong Kong is a different case as it was on 99 year lease to the UK, and the UK was obligated to turn it back to China by international commercial law.

Yes, I did see post 8478.
So, no thoughts on the article.
 
cpp

cpp

Audioholic Ninja
Yes, China's dynastic aspirations are really scary. They will smile and nod at you, all the while lying through their teeth
And that's why we in the US and the WORLD keep buying stuff from China. We would rather smile at their lies, while gettng a labor discount on manufacturing and exports. I see this as about the money and heck with anything else.
 
M

mtrot

Senior Audioholic
And that's why we in the US and the WORLD keep buying stuff from China. We would rather smile at their lies, while gettng a labor discount on manufacturing and exports. I see this as about the money and heck with anything else.
Yep, pretty much. Extricating ourselves from the current economic relationship with China would not be without some pain for the US and Europe. We consumers have gotten addicted to being able to buy a lot of nice "stuff" for cheap prices. But that may end up coming at a high price.
 
Trell

Trell

Audioholic Spartan
Yep, pretty much. Extricating ourselves from the current economic relationship with China would not be without some pain for the US and Europe. We consumers have gotten addicted to being able to buy a lot of nice "stuff" for cheap prices. But that may end up coming at a high price.
For many areas it would be quite painful, I think, from a manufacturing point of view as so much of that infrastructure was closed down. Building that up again is not easy.
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Seriously, I have no life.
For many areas it would be quite painful, I think, from a manufacturing point of view as so much of that infrastructure was closed down. Building that up again is not easy.
The process must start and now, and I think it actually has begun.
 
cpp

cpp

Audioholic Ninja
The process must start and now, and I think it actually has begun.
Maybe one day, some brave small companies are doing it very successfully in the US , but I just don't see essential electrical components being made here in mass in my life time. But there has to be some hope.
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Seriously, I have no life.
Maybe one day, some brave small companies are doing it very successfully in the US , but I just don't see essential electrical components being made here in mass in my life time. But there has to be some hope.
I can tell you that if China gets aggressive militarily, there will be a total embargo on Chinese manufactured goods in a hurry, and firms will have to scramble. The risk of this is not inconsiderable. Any CEO not planning to move production state side is dumb as a rock and not doing his job.
 
D

Dude#1279435

Audioholic Spartan
Maybe one day, some brave small companies are doing it very successfully in the US , but I just don't see essential electrical components being made here in mass in my life time. But there has to be some hope.
Isn't basically everything produced overseas still cheaper than in the states?
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Seriously, I have no life.
Isn't basically everything produced overseas still cheaper than in the states?
It is generally, but actually that is the new slavery. Living standards will rise in those countries unless regressive violent regimes suppress their populations. That is something the democracies must not support or enable. So yes, expect to pay more, which ever way you slice it.
 
panteragstk

panteragstk

Audioholic Warlord
Probably, but it seems to me that higher transportation costs have to be factored in to any decision.
This and the fact that the supply chain has proven to be SIGNIFICANTLY more fragile than we thought. At least the overseas supply chain.

We may break even or reduce cost building things in NA again, and that would help with supply chain issues because of the significantly shorter distance things would have to travel.

That's not to say we don't manufacture in NA, but it's a lot more semiconductor and tech related. Granted, my Kitchen Aid appliances all say made in the USA so what do I know.
 
cpp

cpp

Audioholic Ninja
This and the fact that the supply chain has proven to be SIGNIFICANTLY more fragile than we thought. At least the overseas supply chain.

We may break even or reduce cost building things in NA again, and that would help with supply chain issues because of the significantly shorter distance things would have to travel.

That's not to say we don't manufacture in NA, but it's a lot more semiconductor and tech related. Granted, my Kitchen Aid appliances all say made in the USA so what do I know.
And my Weathertech mats in my car are all made in the USA
 
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