We have a worldwide pandemic of a virulent and novel virus. Infection has a higher mortality rate than influenza, and we are still learning about it's long-term effects in survivors. Is it worth the cost to develop vaccines and immunize people worldwide? Or is it too costly compared to the economic damage from failing to respond? I'm not sure where you intend to go with this. Is this a straw man argument, or are you for real?
Just for the sake of counter argument. Some have said the cost/benefit of a downward economy isn't worth it. So...
Any studies into that? My impression was you'd have to reach 60% to reach herd and even then there's no guarantee it would work. You'd have hospitals sending people home, and I'm assuming temp workers employed would be mile high. I don't know how the business numbers would play out though. I'm assuming it would be one huge mess. Worth a thought though.
--what if we did nothing and relied on herd immunity?
First of all, herd immunity has recently become a buzz word for ignoring vaccines and letting the chips fall where they may. Here's a better definition:
Herd immunity is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through vaccination or previous infections, thereby reducing the likelihood of infection for individuals who lack immunity.
With that definition in mind, it is clear that many infectious viral diseases never reached 'herd immunity' without the aid of large scale vaccination. Small Pox, measles, mumps, rubella, chicken pox, polio, just to name a few were all world-wide causes of disease and death for centuries or longer, until vaccines were developed.
Assuming that we can achieve herd immunity after 60% of humans have been exposed to Covid-19, and recovered is probably a very large underestimation. At present, we do not know how many people must be vaccinated before the virus infection is checked. Measles, a virus with similar contagiousness, requires somewhere between 92-95% of the population to be immunized before herd immunity can work. I've read that Covid-19 is estimated to require 60-75% to reach herd immunity, but that is simply a guestimation. At present, no one knows what that value is. If we don't know what the herd immunity threshold is for Covid-19, how can we discuss it inteligently?
--how many more projected deaths?
In the USA, we've had somewhere between 250,000 and 400,000 deaths from SARS-CoV-2. How many deaths are too many?
--hospital infrastructure overflow?
--the cost on business with so much sick turnover?
These last two questions aren't really worth discussing. In case I haven't made myself clear enough, I'll say it directly:
- We cannot afford to ignore the Corona virus pandemic while doing nothing, hoping it will be effective.
- The hospital infrastructure has been underfunded for a long time. Spending now to increase this will have long-term benefits. Why avoid that?
- The pharmaceutical industry, both in the USA and worldwide, has long made vaccines the unwanted orphan of drug development. They don't provide enough profit to warrant serious interest. That has already changed because of Covid-19. Now, AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, among many others in the US, Europe, India, Russia, & China, have fallen all over themselves to be the first to produce a safe & effective vaccine. The very large investment from this will have long-term benefits, both financially, and to the world's overall health.
I think it's a no-brainer. Get the vaccines ASAP!