Brexit

[Chu Gai]

I am four years younger than you, Swerd. I still remember being in first grade practicing hunching under my desk to practice in the eventuality of an aerial attack. Terrifying. When Kennedy was assassinated, I wondered if the Russians would attack.

As much as the EU might see itself as a counter to Russia, it isn't. Germany will export weapons gladly but as you say, when it comes to engaging with troops not so much. I know there's been talk of a standing EU army but that's it. Recently, the US and some of the NATO countries held some excercises in the countries bordering Russia as a sign of support and to ease their concerns about Russian military movements. The German defense secretary as I recalled was not overly pleased.

 

[Swerd]

I am four years younger than you, Swerd. I still remember being in first grade practicing hunching under my desk to practice in the eventuality of an aerial attack. Terrifying. When Kennedy was assassinated, I wondered if the Russians would attack.

Those memories seem distant and amusing now, don't they? It's nice to realize we were wrong.

As much as the EU might see itself as a counter to Russia, it isn't. Germany will export weapons gladly but as you say, when it comes to engaging with troops not so much. I know there's been talk of a standing EU army but that's it. Recently, the US and some of the NATO countries held some excercises in the countries bordering Russia as a sign of support and to ease their concerns about Russian military movements. The German defense secretary as I recalled was not overly pleased.

If my ideas are correct, the EU was meant as a counter to the old Soviet Union & Iron Curtain. But since 1990 the EU has grown accustomed into thinking they faced no threat. Germany's behavior seems to be consistent with that. They may be the largest and wealthiest in the EU, but they aren't the only country in Europe that thinks that.

All this reminds me of Europe in 1933-35. Europe (mainly France and Britain) sat on its hands while Germany began to rearm itself. Today Germany is probably not the threat, Russia is. Germany may be the country with the most to loose.

I wish someone could explain to the UK that if they turn their back on Europe, they leave everything up to those Germans.

 

[Chu Gai]

If you mean from a defensive POV, Swerd, I don't think the UK is even thinking about shunning Europe. This massive migration or as I tend to see it, an invasion, has wreaked havoc on the European countries. Assimilation is generally poor with large increases in crime that the authorities aren't forthrightly disclosing to the public. Europe, IMO, is being played for suckers.

 

[GO-NAD!]

Those memories seem distant and amusing now, don't they? It's nice to realize we were wrong.
If my ideas are correct, the EU was meant as a counter to the old Soviet Union & Iron Curtain. But since 1990 the EU has grown accustomed into thinking they faced no threat. Germany's behavior seems to be consistent with that. They may be the largest and wealthiest in the EU, but they aren't the only country in Europe that thinks that.

All this reminds me of Europe in 1933-35. Europe (mainly France and Britain) sat on its hands while Germany began to rearm itself. Today Germany is probably not the threat, Russia is. Germany may be the country with the most to loose.

I wish someone could explain to the UK that if they turn their back on Europe, they leave everything up to those Germans.

My understanding is that the EU is just a trading block with some political overlap. Defense against the Warsaw Pact/Russia was/is entirely a function of NATO. There has been no discussion of the UK withdrawing from NATO - in connection with Brexit, at least - so I don't think there is any concern on that front. There's a greater chance of the U.S. leaving NATO than the UK.

Yes, EU leadership will be further concentrated in Germany after the UK leaves, but since they will be the most fiscally responsible 'large' EU country remaining, I would say that's a good thing. As for fears of a resurgent Germany turning back to its old ways, I highly doubt that. Their far-right lunatic fringe will not gain sufficient power to exercise any real influence on German affairs. The German people have - unlike Japan and Russia - faced up to their collective guilt from WWII and have little desire to project themselves in such a manner again.

 

[Steve81]

My understanding is that the EU is just a trading block with some political overlap. Defense against the Warsaw Pact/Russia was/is entirely a function of NATO.

That's my understanding as well. That said, the closer an alliance is economically, the stronger it tends to be. That is to say, it's a lot easier to find excuses to renege on a treaty if you're not really vested in your allies.

 

[Chu Gai]

It may be that the EU has simply outlived its usefulness and needs to change, morph into something else. Consider how companies, faced with perhaps a new technology, respond to it. Do they adapt or do they underestimate the changes and doggedly pursue the tried and true only to find that they're now obsolete? Consider Kodak and Fuji. The latter did a better job of adapting to the changes with the advent of color printing and moved into other areas. But what commissioners or whatever you want to call them would willingly give up their cushy jobs? And cushy they are - high salaries, food and living allowances, minimal taxes if any, drivers, continued salaries once they leave for a period of time, outstanding pensions for a short service, etc. Look at how poorly the whole migrant thing played and is playing out. Or the bailouts of sundry countries. I think it's fair to say Bush didn't have an effective plan of Iraq post-Saddam. Neither did some EU countries WRT wanting to oust Assad.

 

[GO-NAD!]

It may be that the EU has simply outlived its usefulness and needs to change, morph into something else. Consider how companies, faced with perhaps a new technology, respond to it. Do they adapt or do they underestimate the changes and doggedly pursue the tried and true only to find that they're now obsolete? Consider Kodak and Fuji. The latter did a better job of adapting to the changes with the advent of color printing and moved into other areas. But what commissioners or whatever you want to call them would willingly give up their cushy jobs? And cushy they are - high salaries, food and living allowances, minimal taxes if any, drivers, continued salaries once they leave for a period of time, outstanding pensions for a short service, etc. Look at how poorly the whole migrant thing played and is playing out. Or the bailouts of sundry countries. I think it's fair to say Bush didn't have an effective plan of Iraq post-Saddam. Neither did some EU countries WRT wanting to oust Assad.

Well, as the EU is primarily a trading block, I would say it hasn't outlived its usefulness. Could it use some reform - indubitably. But, freer trade is the name of the game these days. They may wish to revisit their immigration and labour mobility policies, along with streamlining their bureaucracy, but to ditch it altogether, would be regression, I would think.

 

[Swerd]

@Chu Gai, @GO-NAD!, @Steve81, @mtrycrafts, and others…

Thanks for reading & understanding my long & roundabout post from yesterday. I think we generally agree with each other, the real problem is future leadership in Europe. That includes economic, political, and military.

I might quibble a little with Chu Gai's focus on migration – think a bit broader. Migration will always follow upon economic success. I don't hear about Syrian refugees clamoring to get into Russia.

Europe, the EU and NATO need to come up with a practical long-term policy. Instead they have allowed it to get out of hand, and become a tool for Russia to use against them.

 

[Chu Gai]

Well, Russia isn't about to open its doors for more refugees and to some extent as Norway, maybe more so, aren't particularly tolerant when migrants start molesting women. The payback is swift and the police may even participate in educating them about proper behavior. My focusing on immigration Swerd is that it was a veritable flood and like all floods, they tend to wreak havoc. The EU will figure itself out. Will be interesting what happens should other countries hold their own referendums. After all, aren't these countries more or less democracies?

 

[lsiberian]

Well, Russia isn't about to open its doors for more refugees and to some extent as Norway, maybe more so, aren't particularly tolerant when migrants start molesting women. The payback is swift and the police may even participate in educating them about proper behavior. My focusing on immigration Swerd is that it was a veritable flood and like all floods, they tend to wreak havoc. The EU will figure itself out. Will be interesting what happens should other countries hold their own referendums. After all, aren't these countries more or less democracies?

There are rumors a 2nd referendum may happen. Apparently the Scottish Parliament and Northern Ireland Parliament are against leaving since they're countries voted to stay in. If Trump gets elected and this stays we may enter a recession. The market hates uncertainty

 

[Ponzio]

the recriminations begin.
can u believe it, a politician lied?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/26/brexit-leaders-are-walking-back-some-of-their-biggest-promises/?wpisrc=nl_headlines&wpmm=1

now let's build that Wall. give S. Korea & Japan nuclear weapons and leave the East and let's dump NATO while we're at it. it's going to be beautiful.

 

[Swerd]

the recriminations begin.
can u believe it, a politician lied?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/26/brexit-leaders-are-walking-back-some-of-their-biggest-promises/?wpisrc=nl_headlines&wpmm=1

now let's build that Wall. give S. Korea & Japan nuclear weapons and leave the East and let's dump NATO while we're at it. it's going to be beautiful.

Make that Huge .

 

[Chu Gai]

the recriminations begin.
can u believe it, a politician lied?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/26/brexit-leaders-are-walking-back-some-of-their-biggest-promises/?wpisrc=nl_headlines&wpmm=1

now let's build that Wall. give S. Korea & Japan nuclear weapons and leave the East and let's dump NATO while we're at it. it's going to be beautiful.

Being largely unfamiliar with British law, if there suddenly is a windfall of £X, whose responsibility is it to decide what to do with it? Same question WRT immigration. BTW, I don't recall the Washington Post being quite so eager to publish articles about 'if you like your insurance you can keep it' or the nature of a transparent administration.

 

[Ponzio]

there isn't a newspaper/periodical/media outlet in this country that doesn't have a slant/bias of it's beliefs. Hello, Faux News. I'm not here to debate those issues since we all have our own bias/beliefs but I can categorically state that the WP did indeed run articles about the shortcomings of Obamacare numerous times and the lack of transparency by the current administration when necessary, since I personally read them on-line. I prefer my news from the AP/Reuters feeds, hot off the presses, anyway before it gets massaged.

 

[mtrycrafts]

Make that Huge .

We need a dome.

 

[mtrycrafts]

...
I don't hear about Syrian refugees clamoring to get into Russia.

... and become a tool for Russia to use against them.

Me neither. I wonder why that is.

Russia would just love to fragment EU, et al.As the saying goes...united we stand, divided we fall...
That is my worry, for a good reason.

 

[Chu Gai]

I must say, Nigel Farage has some set of balls as he addresses the members of the European Parliament. Geez, there's a lot of people there.

 

[Jeepers]

As a continental European being part of the EU, I have mixed feelings about the Brexit.
It is not the end of the world and there will always be trade relations and people travelling between continental Europe and the UK but soon under different conditions.

My mixed feelings are whether or not the people who voted for the Brexit realized the full impact of their choice and were the EU leaders so naïve to think that the Brexit camp would lose. The fact is that nobody on both sides of the Channel was prepared for the result and there is now uncertainty of what to do in the coming days and weeks. The United Kingdom is in a kind of chaos and maybe might end up not being so United anymore.

Anyway I sincerely hope that this is a wake up call for the EU leaders to get their act together and start reforming because I do support the idea of a United Europe but the implementation of it leaves a lot to be desired. The Schengen treaty simply does not work, e.g. Syria fighters returning and not being arrested and the recent immigration crisis. There are obviously more examples of stupid rules and regulations. The number of Europeans getting upset and frustrated is increasing daily and maybe the Brexit was the best thing to happen to make EU leaders think.

Regarding article 50 triggering the start of the exit and consequently the start of the negotiations; yes the UK controls the clock but not the contents. You don't really think that the EU will give in to the possible wishes/demands of the UK because this would give other EU countries the idea to also leave the EU keeping all advantages and getting rid of all disadvantages.

Exciting times ahead...

 

[TLS Guy]

Jeepers what you say is essentially correct.

There will not be much action in the UK at present until the leadership issue is settled. That will be September 9. However because of the nature of the unwritten UK constitution that may not end the issue before article 50 can be triggered.

A new prime minister may feel he needs a mandate from the country to govern after what has taken place. He may well ask the Queen to dissolve parliament. The Queen may be uneasy about the mandate and dissolve parliament anyway. That will result in a general election. The earliest that could be held would likely be the beginning of November.

We will know the conservative two top leader candidates this week. There will be e runoff by the Conservative party members at large. They will not make the Labor party mistake and allow people to join to bend the result. The 1922 committee cut off the ability of new members to vote as soon as the PM resigned.

This gets to the new huge problem, the UK Labor party. Ed Milliband who is by nature very geeky, and can't even eat a hamburger without negative press on the front page, lost the last election for Labor badly. He came to the Labor party leadership after a nasty family feud with his much more capable brother David. The latter emigrated to the US after the election.

Now Ed won by sucking up to very nasty trade unionists and worse.

Now enter a very nasty Leninist/Trotskyist chap by the name of Jeremy Corbyn. He is the long term labor MP of for Islington. Enough hard left Labor MPs put his name into nomination for him to stand for the leadership. Ed Milliband had changed the rules so that anyone could join the Labor party for 3 Quid (3GBP) and have a vote. Hard left individuals joined in droves and so did many conservatives to vote for Jeremy Corbyn, to make Labor unelectable. Jeremy Corbyn became leader of the labor party with 60% of the vote!

Now Jeremy Corbyn ran a lack luster campaign of behalf of the Remain camp.

Most of his shadow cabinet (the front bench) resigned this week. The Parliamentary Labor party (the Labor MPs) voted a motion of no confidence in his leadership to today 150 to 40. However the hard left Jeremy Corbyn refuses to resign and go. He feels, probably correctly, the same left wing rabble will re elect him.

Now there is a high probability of an imminent general election. Current opinion polls show that the Labor party stand to loose 150 Labor MPs in a general election.

If Jeremy Corbyn takes Labor into a general election who will fill the vacuum? It has to be the Liberal party or UKIP. Most of the money is on Nigel Farage and UKIP walking into the vacuum.

Interesting times indeed. This is by far the UKs most serious constitutional crisis since the second World War with the Suez debacle also in contention. I think though this is far more serious than Suez, which I remember well.

Now a word about Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon is off in Brussels trying to do a separate deal for Scotland. So far no one will talk to her. The reason being that many EU countries have separatist movements, and the EU leadership do not want to be seen to encourage them.

When all is cast up, I don't see the Scots voting for independence and having the Euro for their currency.

Northern Ireland is a different matter. These events could well result in the reunification of Ireland, which would not be a bad outcome.

As far as the new conservative leader, the bookies are today giving slightly better odds on Theresa May being the next PM rather than Boris Johnson.

I had a long discussion about this with my brother Paul on Sunday. He says there are pros and cons to both. Although Teresa May was in the remain camp, she was very conflicted to be so and has a lot of leanings to Leave also. Apparently she is inscrutable in negotiations and never tips her hand. The result apparently is that she usually gets her way.

Stay tuned!

By the way, I will be arriving in The UK August 23, and will be there until September 23. Things should be white hot by then, and I will be able to report first hand. I will also be making a fairly extended visit to Scotland. I will try and send first hand reports.

 

[Jeepers]

TLS Guy, thanks for your post and your detailed explanation on the UK parties.

Since years I watch BBC World and CNN International so I am pretty much aware of what is going on in the UK but of course it is very helpful to get your insight on the complexity of UK politics.