Ukraine – Russia … not more of the last thread

[Trell]

Addressing Putin’s Nuclear Threat: Thinking Like the Cold War KGB Officer That He Was (justsecurity.org)

An interesting but depressive article.

 

[GO-NAD!]

US reminds pro-Putin Hungary it's a Western ally - BBC News

If Orban loves Putin so much, why doesn't he quit NATO & EU and join Belarus and Russia in Paradise?

 

[Mr._Clark]

If Orban loves Putin so much, why doesn't he quit NATO & EU and join Belarus and Russia in Paradise?

I've had the exact same thought.

I've also wondered why Orban appears to be relatively popular in Hungary. He seems like a twit to me.

 

[Mr._Clark]

There have been numerous reports about Russian evacuations from Kherson. Here's an example:

Russia to evacuate 10,000 a day from Ukraine's Kherson region

Russian-installed authorities in the occupied Ukrainian region of Kherson said on Wednesday that they plan to evacuate around 50,000-60,000 people over the next six days amid escalating pressure from a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

www.reuters.com

I've wondered what is driving this. One guess is that Putin is planning to pull his troops back, then use nukes when Ukrainian forces move in. However, now I'm wondering if it's because the Russians are planning to flood the region by blowing the dam at the Kakhovka power plant:

>>>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on Thursday of an impending “large-scale disaster” in southern Ukraine, claiming that Russia mined a dam at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant in the south of the country.

In an address via videolink to EU leaders meeting in Brussels, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine had information showing Russia had already set charges. Should the dam be destroyed, more than 80 settlements — including the port city of Kherson — could be hit by "rapid flooding," impacting hundreds of thousands of people, he said. <<<

Russia threatens hundreds of thousands of people by mining dam, Zelenskyy warns

Ukrainian leader says 80 settlements — including Kherson — could be hit by rapid flooding because of Russia’s planned ‘terrorist attack’.

www.politico.eu

 

[GO-NAD!]

I've had the exact same thought.

I've also wondered why Orban appears to be relatively popular in Hungary. He seems like a twit to me.

Well, he's not the only popular twit to reach the highest office in the land...

 

[GO-NAD!]

There have been numerous reports about Russian evacuations from Kherson. Here's an example:

Russia to evacuate 10,000 a day from Ukraine's Kherson region

Russian-installed authorities in the occupied Ukrainian region of Kherson said on Wednesday that they plan to evacuate around 50,000-60,000 people over the next six days amid escalating pressure from a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

www.reuters.com

I've wondered what is driving this. One guess is that Putin is planning to pull his troops back, then use nukes when Ukrainian forces move in. However, now I'm wondering if it's because the Russians are planning to flood the region by blowing the dam at the Kakhovka power plant:

>>>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on Thursday of an impending “large-scale disaster” in southern Ukraine, claiming that Russia mined a dam at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant in the south of the country.

In an address via videolink to EU leaders meeting in Brussels, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine had information showing Russia had already set charges. Should the dam be destroyed, more than 80 settlements — including the port city of Kherson — could be hit by "rapid flooding," impacting hundreds of thousands of people, he said. <<<

Russia threatens hundreds of thousands of people by mining dam, Zelenskyy warns

Ukrainian leader says 80 settlements — including Kherson — could be hit by rapid flooding because of Russia’s planned ‘terrorist attack’.

www.politico.eu

Good Lord, I hope that is just bad intel.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Good Lord, I hope that is just bad intel.

Unfortunately, it is starting to seem plausible. Here's an article that mentions the possibility:

>>>A further threat to the Ukrainian advance is the fear that the Russians will blow up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station further down the Dnieper river from Dudchany. That could turn passable land into a swamp. “It is possible as it doesn’t matter to them. They don’t care. If they are losing the areas they don’t mind making the situation for Ukrainians worse.”<<<

‘We have a window’: Ukraine’s forces press their momentum on Kherson’s frontline

As they target a makeshift Russian HQ on the west bank of the Dnieper with drones and missiles, a recon unit of the Ukrainian army believe they are closing in on a prize city

www.theguardian.com

As far as I can tell, it looks like the Russians are using disinformation in order to lay the groundwork to blame it on Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583434130070507520

 

[Trell]

As far as I can tell, it looks like the Russians are using disinformation in order to lay the groundwork to blame it on Ukraine:

I believe that Russian disinformation is not as potent as it used to be, at least not with respect to the brutal Rusian invasion of Ukraine, in large part of the Biden administration policy of being open with the intelligence they have. As you recall the administration was ridiculed for this before the invasion, and not even the Ukrainians took them seriously that an invasion was imminent.

I believe that USA has regained much of the credibility they lost when they lied about the reasons for invading Iraq the second time. Strange thing to say, I know, when we just had Trump as US President. Perhaps I engage in wishful thinking.

In any case, the Biden administration have been awesome in gathering support for Ukraine, and they still are.

 

[Trell]

 

[Trell]

An interesting clip by CNN inside an Ukrainian drone workshop, and even how they modify old grenades to be dropped by drones.

 

[Trell]

This is what awaits the newly drafted Russians with no training and no modern equipment.

 

[GO-NAD!]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/flying-with-nato-awacs-1.6619471

 

[Trell]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/flying-with-nato-awacs-1.6619471

A very nice article!

 

[Mr._Clark]

Well, he's not the only popular twit to reach the highest office in the land...

It looks like Orban's popularity may be waning. My initial impression is that this is being driven more by the economic situation in Hungary than Orban's stance on Russia.

Thousands protest against PM Orban's government, "runaway inflation"

Thousands of Hungarians including teachers and students marched through Budapest on Sunday to protest against the government, demanding higher wages for teachers and a curb on surging inflation that is eroding incomes.

www.reuters.com

But, he's still a twit:

Hungary’s Orbán targets EU in speech marking 1956 anti-Soviet revolt

Prime minister refers to ‘those who shoot at Hungary from the shadows or from the heights of Brussels,’ AP reports.

www.politico.eu

And that's my huge opinion.

 

[mtrycrafts]

It looks like Orban's popularity may be waning. My initial impression is that this is being driven more by the economic situation in Hungary than Orban's stance on Russia.

Thousands protest against PM Orban's government, "runaway inflation"

Thousands of Hungarians including teachers and students marched through Budapest on Sunday to protest against the government, demanding higher wages for teachers and a curb on surging inflation that is eroding incomes.

www.reuters.com

But, he's still a twit:

Hungary’s Orbán targets EU in speech marking 1956 anti-Soviet revolt

Prime minister refers to ‘those who shoot at Hungary from the shadows or from the heights of Brussels,’ AP reports.

www.politico.eu

And that's my huge opinion.

Not fast enough.

 

[BoredSysAdmin]

Ok, this now is a brand new bottom for Russia. I am terrified even listing to these people speak seriously about it.

Ukraine urges global ban of Russia's RT over presenter's call to drown children

Ukraine branded the Russian state-controlled broadcaster RT as an inciter of genocide on Sunday after a presenter said Ukrainian children who saw Russians as occupiers under the Soviet Union should have been drowned.

www.reuters.com

 

[Alex2507]

new bottom for Russia.

Holodomor - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Asking the occupied country IF they're being occupied and by whom seems only reasonable.

I think the TV host who talks of drowning kids is like the Alex Jones of Russia. I guess every country has one.

 

[GO-NAD!]

I'm not sure what to make of this letter from the progress wing of Congress to President Biden.

B7B3674EFB12D933EA4A2B97C7405DD4.10-24-22-cpc-letter-for-diplomacy-on-russia-ukraine-conflict.pdf (house.gov)

>>>Your support for the self-defense of an independent, sovereign, and democratic state has been supported by Congress, including through various appropriations of military, economic and humanitarian aid in furtherance of this cause. <<< (italics mine)

This statement seems to imply that their support for further funding is not unconditional and/or never ending. Regardless, the letter seems to be telling Biden how to suck eggs. A negotiated peace? Wow, I bet he never thought of that!

The letter suggests that any negotiated peace has to be acceptable to Ukraine. As I understand it, Ukraine will not cede any territory in the eastern region and will probably demand the return of Crimea. But, Russia will want to see some reward for their investment of lives and treasure. A ceasefire would probably be a precondition for negotiations - which would simply give Russia some breathing room to reinforce/rest/replenish their forces. And, Ukraine would probably demand a withdrawal to pre-invasion borders as a precondition.

They've tossed a dead cat on the table and are just making the situation more difficult for Biden. That said, they aren't as bad as the hard-right wing of the GOP, who would happily throw Ukraine under the bus and not look back.

 

[Trell]

I'm not sure what to make of this letter from the progress wing of Congress to President Biden.

B7B3674EFB12D933EA4A2B97C7405DD4.10-24-22-cpc-letter-for-diplomacy-on-russia-ukraine-conflict.pdf (house.gov)

>>>Your support for the self-defense of an independent, sovereign, and democratic state has been supported by Congress, including through various appropriations of military, economic and humanitarian aid in furtherance of this cause. <<< (italics mine)

This statement seems to imply that their support for further funding is not unconditional and/or never ending. Regardless, the letter seems to be telling Biden how to suck eggs. A negotiated peace? Wow, I bet he never thought of that!

The letter suggests that any negotiated peace has to be acceptable to Ukraine. As I understand it, Ukraine will not cede any territory in the eastern region and will probably demand the return of Crimea. But, Russia will want to see some reward for their investment of lives and treasure. A ceasefire would probably be a precondition for negotiations - which would simply give Russia some breathing room to reinforce/rest/replenish their forces. And, Ukraine would probably demand a withdrawal to pre-invasion borders as a precondition.

They've tossed a dead cat on the table and are just making the situation more difficult for Biden. That said, they aren't as bad as the hard-right wing of the GOP, who would happily throw Ukraine under the bus and not look back.

I'm bit perplexed as well about their letter, as I read about it in the press, but they do have a demand for diplomacy towards a free and independent Ukraine. They feel that Biden is not doing enough with respect to diplomacy?

I don't read their letter as appeasement, though.

>>>We are under no illusions regarding the difficulties involved in engaging Russia given its
outrageous and illegal invasion of Ukraine and its decision to make additional illegal annexations
of Ukrainian territory. However, if there is a way to end the war while preserving a free and
independent Ukraine, it is America’s responsibility to pursue every diplomatic avenue to support
such a solution that is acceptable to the people of Ukraine. [bold added] Such a framework would presumably
include incentives to end hostilities, including some form of sanctions relief, and bring together
the international community to establish security guarantees for a free and independent Ukraine
that are acceptable for all parties, particularly Ukrainians. The alternative to diplomacy is
protracted war, with both its attendant certainties and catastrophic and unknowable risks. <<<

 

[GO-NAD!]

I'm bit perplexed as well about their letter, as I read about it in the press, but they do have a demand for diplomacy towards a free and independent Ukraine. They feel that Biden is not doing enough with respect to diplomacy?

I don't read their letter as appeasement, though.

>>>We are under no illusions regarding the difficulties involved in engaging Russia given its
outrageous and illegal invasion of Ukraine and its decision to make additional illegal annexations
of Ukrainian territory. However, if there is a way to end the war while preserving a free and
independent Ukraine, it is America’s responsibility to pursue every diplomatic avenue to support
such a solution that is acceptable to the people of Ukraine. [bold added] Such a framework would presumably
include incentives to end hostilities, including some form of sanctions relief, and bring together
the international community to establish security guarantees for a free and independent Ukraine
that are acceptable for all parties, particularly Ukrainians. The alternative to diplomacy is
protracted war, with both its attendant certainties and catastrophic and unknowable risks. <<<

No, I wouldn't call it appeasement either. Just not sure what it will accomplish.