Coronavirus

[highfigh]

Highfigh, all disagreements, rhetoric, politics, posturing, and stupidity aside, Your quote summarizes my feelings on COVID. Permission to use, put on a shirt?

Go nuts. If it takes off, I wouldn't mind a slice, though.

 

[highfigh]

That is exactly my question as well; Russian disinformation?

If Russia is behind any disinformation, it's because they have remembered Robert Heinlein's comment- "Never underestimate the power of human stupidity". Americans like to think they're special. They're special, alright- more than half of the country needs remedial reading lessons but that doesn't stop them from being some kind of freaking expert in areas they know nothing about.

Don't forget about disinformation coming from Washington, either.

 

[highfigh]

Right? One concept that's eluding people is this is the reason it is a pandemic. So many people are asymptomatic or have very little symptoms and are out and about spreading it. My nephew got it and was only tested because he is in the medical field. He said he never really felt bad. They tested is wife and she had it but was completely asymptomatic. They did their 15 day quarantine.

If you got it, went home because you're really sick, thus not spreading it, this most likely wouldn't be a pandemic. Ebola is the classic - you get it and you go home and die (~80%). There's very little chance of you spreading it.

Also, shuffled somewhere in all this news, Florida has beaten it recorded daily covid deaths four days in a row. I haven't looked today, maybe another new record today? Who's freedom are the protecting down there?

I have been off of work because of a foot problem since March (hasn't healed yet and if I can't walk or stand for long periods, I can't do that job) and I went in to do some work on part of my boat. While the shop manager & I talked about this, he said that the company has 86 employees at five locations, including the part time people, and not one case of COVID-19 and one guy was required to stay at home because his wife had come back from Italy right about the time they showed an early surge in cases.

I don't like the way the stats are being 'massaged'.

 

[TLS Guy]

Pressure is building in the UK for a challenge trial. Pressure is building from an organization called "Not One Day More". They have called for volunteers willing to receive the Oxford vaccine and after showing immunity being exposed to the virus by inhalation. 30,000 individuals volunteered already, to risk death for the common good.

This virus is really causing havoc and distress and widely likened to war. The virus now appears to be 10 times more infectious than previously and no less virulent. The dreadful legacy of permanent illness and disability is becoming more and more evident. Now two studies one from Italy and another from Germany show a high prevalence of permanent heart damage. The Italian study showed 47% and the German study using the more sensitive cardiac MRI showed it to be 87%.

The Red Sox pitcher Edwardo Rodriguez is now out for the season with myocarditis following Covid-19. I suspect his career is over.

A study published last Saturday in Jama, looked at the epidemiology of spread in communities with schools open versus closed. There was significantly more spread in the schools open communities. So likely children to spread. In fact it is now known that children over 10 get and spread the virus virtually the same as adults.

So in the UK at least this is being compare to war, especially as the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Britain approaches next month.

So now Professor Adrian Hill the head of the Oxford Jenner institute is now convinced that a challenge trial like Edward Jenner did in 1795 is justified. So he is seeking approval to vaccinate 40 consenting adults with the Oxford vaccine and after developing antibodies challenging them nasally with live virus. This is extraordinary as there is no truly effective treatment for this infection. It seems likely this will get official sanction very soon. If this is successful then widespread vaccinations could start in the very near future.

This infection is now regarded and confirmed as an infectious vasculitis. This makes it unique in infectious disease and very dangerous.

According to Professor Hill the phase 3 trials are just going to take too long, with too many lives lost, to say nothing of the long term disability to not seriously consider not doing this challenge trial. After thinking about this carefully I think this is an appropriate and ethical course of action given the current situation, and what is far more likely to be an absolutely ghastly situation as the second wave really takes hold this fall.

 

[Danzilla31]

Pressure is building in the UK for a challenge trial. Pressure is building from an organization called "Not One Day More". They have called for volunteers willing to receive the Oxford vaccine and after showing immunity being exposed to the virus by inhalation. 30,000 individuals volunteered already, to risk death for the common good.

This virus is really causing havoc and distress and widely likened to war. The virus now appears to be 10 times more infectious than previously and no less virulent. The dreadful legacy of permanent illness and disability is becoming more and more evident. Now two studies one from Italy and another from Germany show a high prevalence of permanent heart damage. The Italian study showed 47% and the German study using the more sensitive cardiac MRI showed it to be 87%.

The Red Sox pitcher Edwardo Rodriguez is now out for the season with myocarditis following Covid-19. I suspect his career is over.

A study published last Saturday in Jama, looked at the epidemiology of spread in communities with schools open versus closed. There was significantly more spread in the schools open communities. So likely children to spread. In fact it is now known that children over 10 get and spread the virus virtually the same as adults.

So in the UK at least this is being compare to war, especially as the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Britain approaches next month.

So now Professor Adrian Hill the head of the Oxford Jenner institute is now convinced that a challenge trial like Edward Jenner did in 1795 is justified. So he is seeking approval to vaccinate 40 consenting adults with the Oxford vaccine and after developing antibodies challenging them nasally with live virus. This is extraordinary as there is no truly effective treatment for this infection. It seems likely this will get official sanction very soon. If this is successful then widespread vaccinations could start in the very near future.

This infection is now regarded and confirmed as an infectious vasculitis. This makes it unique in infectious disease and very dangerous.

According to Professor Hill the phase 3 trials are just going to take too long, with too many lives lost, to say nothing of the long term disability to not seriously consider not doing this challenge trial. After thinking about this carefully I think this is an appropriate and ethical course of action given the current situation, and what is far more likely to be an absolutely ghastly situation as the second wave really takes hold this fall.

Thanks for the update praying that it goes well

 

[Swerd]

Pressure is building in the UK for a challenge trial. Pressure is building from an organization called "Not One Day More". They have called for volunteers willing to receive the Oxford vaccine and after showing immunity being exposed to the virus by inhalation. 30,000 individuals volunteered already, to risk death for the common good.

You already know my opinion on this. A deliberate viral challenge, where the virus pathogen is known to sometimes be fatal, and when there is no known effective treatment, is unethical. I don't know about the UK, but no MD in the USA would risk his or her license to practice by participating in such a trial. And the FDA – without any doubt – would never allow a challenge trial to proceed, much less consider the results from such a trial.

It might be almost as fast to immunize volunteers where no direct virus challenge is needed – in California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, or Sturgis, South Dakota.

 

[TLS Guy]

You already know my opinion on this. A deliberate viral challenge, where the virus pathogen is known to sometimes be fatal, and when there is no known effective treatment, is unethical. I don't know about the UK, but no MD in the USA would risk his or her license to practice by participating in such a trial. And the FDA – without any doubt – would never allow a challenge trial to proceed, much less consider the results from such a trial.

It might be almost as fast to immunize volunteers where no direct virus challenge is needed – in California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, or Sturgis, South Dakota.

On the whole I agree, but this virus is doing a lot of damage., now and for the future. The Oxford group have applied for permission to do a challenge study as Prof. Hill feels doing large double blind studies is going to take too long under current circumstances. My feeling is that it will be granted and go ahead. The history of the UK gives it a very different perspective on all this. The view of the UK is that if the "few" went up in Hurricanes and Spitfires day after day, and if hundreds of local non uniformed, non combatants were prepared to take small defenseless craft into the jaws of Hell at Dunkirk to rescue its army, then this current generation do not want be found wanting from lack of similar courage. This attitude can be traced right back to the Spanish Armada.

I know the FDA's views on this, as I read their recent announcement in full. They are opposed.

The issue may well arise that if UK development leap frogs from a challenge study, and immunization goes full speed ahead in the UK and Europe in general, but not the US, how much pressure will build on the FDA then. I bet they will cave, or be forced to.

 

[Kvn_Walker]

Quick update from my corner of the world...

It's been a pretty good week. The cough still comes and goes, but not severely. Still have almost no smell. Every so often I can catch a whiff of something, but then it's gone in an instant.

My coworker is recovering much slower than I did. After 3 weeks she still doesn't feel well enough to come back to work. But they only pay for the first 2 weeks... She's probably going to go on short-term disability until she recovers.

My stepdaughter had a successful and uneventful delivery Saturday 8/1 early AM. They tested the baby and his results were negative. They all came home Monday afternoon...

Just in time for Isaias to pass through Tuesday morning... knocking out their power for almost 2 days. Fortunately our House 2.0 didn't lose power so they had a place to spend a night with air conditioning and some creature comforts.

Welcome to 2020, Nathan. Sorry you picked the shittiest year in modern history to be born, but you won't remember any of this nonsense.

Now flex them pythons! Nate strong! Nate smash!

 

[Irvrobinson]

U.S. will prepare coronavirus strain for potential human challenge trials

US considering coronavirus strain for potential human challenge trials -- but there's no intention to use it, Fauci says | CNN

The nation's top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, confirmed to CNN on Friday that scientists at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases are working to have a strain of coronavirus created that could be used in human challenge trials of a Covid-19 vaccine.

www.cnn.com

 

[Irvrobinson]

Bloomberg News has a free coronavirus section on their website. The rest of the Bloomberg site is decidedly not free. The attraction is that Bloomberg articles are usually very well written and provide balanced information.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Swerd]

U.S. will prepare coronavirus strain for potential human challenge trials

US considering coronavirus strain for potential human challenge trials -- but there's no intention to use it, Fauci says | CNN

The nation's top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, confirmed to CNN on Friday that scientists at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases are working to have a strain of coronavirus created that could be used in human challenge trials of a Covid-19 vaccine.

www.cnn.com

That doesn't mean humans will be challenged with live virus, only that virus stocks are being prepared in large enough quantity in case live virus challenges are needed in the future. That article quoted Faucci as saying it was in his opinion, Plan D, for use only when plans A, B, and C have failed. The serious problems of risk and medical ethics cannot easily be dismissed.

Faucci went on to say how he thinks virus challenges can be justified only in cases where there are no disease outbreaks occurring publicly, such as for malaria vaccine trials. With COVID-19, we have plenty of cases occurring each day. Just look at the daily new infections reported in California, Texas, Florida, and Georgia.

Faucci also pointed out that virus challenges of humans, with 40 people, as proposed by British researchers at the Jenner Inst., are likely to be statistically meaningless. He says there must be about 150 to 160 people tested, and that half of them must have been immunized by the experimental COVID-19 vaccine, and half immunized with the placebo. Considering that people on that blinded clinical trial do not know if they received the experimental vaccine or the placebo, how many of those people are willing to volunteer for viral challenge?

It is likely that most who volunteer for a live virus challenge will be younger otherwise healthy people who are in a low-risk category. Such as test tells us nothing about how people in various high-risk groups might do.

Finally, Faucci said how no small trial involving viral challenge can substitute for the large clinical trials of at least 15,000 people. They provide valuable data on toxicities and adverse reactions to the vaccine, that can only come with large numbers of people. Contrast that with the Russian vaccine recently approved for use after testing was done in about 50 to 100 people.

 

[Irvrobinson]

I did not make editorial comments, I just provided the links.

 

[Swerd]

I did not make editorial comments, I just provided the links.

I don't doubt that you read that CNN article, and understand it's full impact.

I meant to make it clear to other readers that Faucci, as well as others at the NIAID and FDA, don't intend to use virus challenges unless they have no other option.

 

[Alex2507]

I did not make editorial comments

You were thinking them.

Welcome back.

 

[Mr._Clark]

It looks like Mo Bamba is out of the NBA playoffs due to post COVID-19 issues. I have not seen any recent updates on Eduardo Rodriguez.

>>>LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- Mo Bamba will not play for the Orlando Magic in this season's playoffs after leaving the bubble for testing related to his previous bout with coronavirus, the team announced Friday.

Bamba was diagnosed with COVID-19 on June 11. The 22-year-old appeared in 62 games with the Magic this season but logged only 11 minutes of action in Orlando's first two seeding games at Walt Disney World Resort.

He did not appear in any of Orlando's final six seeding games.

"On the advice of the Magic's human performance staff and team physicians, Orlando Magic center Mo Bamba has left the NBA campus for a comprehensive post-coronavirus evaluation," the team said in a release Friday.<<<

Bamba to miss Magic playoffs for post-virus tests

Magic center Mo Bamba has left the NBA's bubble to undergo a "comprehensive post-coronavirus evaluation" and will miss this season's playoffs, the team said.

www.espn.com

 

[Mr._Clark]

This may be somewhat old news, but I just ran across an article at nyt.com about a company in India that is starting to produce the the Oxford vaccine, gambling that it will prove to be effective. What's interesting is that this is apparenlty all private equity, at least so far:

>>>The Serum Institute, which is exclusively controlled by a small and fabulously rich Indian family and started out years ago as a horse farm, is doing what a few other companies in the race for a vaccine are doing: mass-producing hundreds of millions of doses of a vaccine candidate that is still in trials and might not even work.

But if it does, Adar Poonawalla, Serum’s chief executive and the only child of the company’s founder, will become one of the most tugged-at men in the world. He will have on hand what everyone wants, possibly in greater quantities before anyone else.

His company, which has teamed up with the Oxford scientists developing the vaccine, was one of the first to boldly announce, in April, that it was going to mass-produce a vaccine before clinical trials even ended. Now, Mr. Poonawalla’s fastest vaccine assembly lines are being readied to crank out 500 doses each minute, and his phone rings endlessly. . . .

AstraZeneca is the lead partner with the Oxford scientists, and it has signed government contracts worth more than $1 billion to manufacture the vaccine for Europe, the United States and other markets. But it has allowed the Serum Institute to produce it as well. The difference, Mr. Poonawalla said, is that his company is shouldering the cost of production on its own.

But Serum is distinct from all other major vaccine producers in an important way. Like many highly successful Indian businesses, it is family-run. It can make decisions quickly and take big risks, like the one it’s about to, which could cost the family hundreds of millions of dollars.

Mr. Poonawalla said he was “70 to 80 percent” sure the Oxford vaccine would work. . . .

But even if this vaccine fails to win the race, the Serum Institute will still be instrumental. It has teamed up with other vaccine designers, at earlier stages of development, to manufacture four other vaccines, though those are not being mass produced yet.

And if all of those fail, Mr. Poonawalla says he can quickly adapt his assembly lines to manufacture whatever vaccine candidate does work, wherever it comes from.

“Very few people can produce it at this cost, this scale and this speed,” he said.<<<

Indian Billionaires Bet Big on Head Start in Coronavirus Vaccine Race (Published 2020)

The world’s largest vaccine producer, the Serum Institute, announced a plan to make hundreds of millions of doses of an unproven inoculation. It’s a gamble with a huge upside. And huge risks.

www.nytimes.com

 

[shadyJ]

Trump critical of how New Zealand has handled COVID-19 Response

It's a good thing we didn't screw this up like them kiwis!

 

[TLS Guy]

This may be somewhat old news, but I just ran across an article at nyt.com about a company in India that is starting to produce the the Oxford vaccine, gambling that it will prove to be effective. What's interesting is that this is apparenlty all private equity, at least so far:

>>>The Serum Institute, which is exclusively controlled by a small and fabulously rich Indian family and started out years ago as a horse farm, is doing what a few other companies in the race for a vaccine are doing: mass-producing hundreds of millions of doses of a vaccine candidate that is still in trials and might not even work.

But if it does, Adar Poonawalla, Serum’s chief executive and the only child of the company’s founder, will become one of the most tugged-at men in the world. He will have on hand what everyone wants, possibly in greater quantities before anyone else.

His company, which has teamed up with the Oxford scientists developing the vaccine, was one of the first to boldly announce, in April, that it was going to mass-produce a vaccine before clinical trials even ended. Now, Mr. Poonawalla’s fastest vaccine assembly lines are being readied to crank out 500 doses each minute, and his phone rings endlessly. . . .

AstraZeneca is the lead partner with the Oxford scientists, and it has signed government contracts worth more than $1 billion to manufacture the vaccine for Europe, the United States and other markets. But it has allowed the Serum Institute to produce it as well. The difference, Mr. Poonawalla said, is that his company is shouldering the cost of production on its own.

But Serum is distinct from all other major vaccine producers in an important way. Like many highly successful Indian businesses, it is family-run. It can make decisions quickly and take big risks, like the one it’s about to, which could cost the family hundreds of millions of dollars.

Mr. Poonawalla said he was “70 to 80 percent” sure the Oxford vaccine would work. . . .

But even if this vaccine fails to win the race, the Serum Institute will still be instrumental. It has teamed up with other vaccine designers, at earlier stages of development, to manufacture four other vaccines, though those are not being mass produced yet.

And if all of those fail, Mr. Poonawalla says he can quickly adapt his assembly lines to manufacture whatever vaccine candidate does work, wherever it comes from.

“Very few people can produce it at this cost, this scale and this speed,” he said.<<<

Indian Billionaires Bet Big on Head Start in Coronavirus Vaccine Race (Published 2020)

The world’s largest vaccine producer, the Serum Institute, announced a plan to make hundreds of millions of doses of an unproven inoculation. It’s a gamble with a huge upside. And huge risks.

www.nytimes.com

This deal was made at the outset of the Oxford vaccine development. As I understand it though, Serum want to make their production totally available to third world countries at cost. If he does pull this off and I expect he will, this really will be great news. The developed countries are already purchasing large quantities of unproven vaccines. The three leaders for pre purchase are Astra Zeneka, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna. The latter two are similar and use mRNA. It does show antibody response but the question is how long. The Oxford vaccine use a viral vector to carry a DNA plasmid into the body's cells. We do know that this technique in MERS produces immunity to 2 years at least. The key though is to pick a viral vector that few if any humans have immunity two. The Chinese vaccine has the wrong vector to which a large number are immune which inactivates the vaccine.

Merck are copying Oxford, but behind and using a stomatitis virus.

Johnson and Johnson are in on this, but using killed inactivated virus. Unfortunately the US is backing this big time. However I bet this will be another Trump miss step. This approach has not been effective against corona viruses previously, but is the cheapest and easiest approach.

Reading between the lines, I suspect Oxford are getting encouraging signals from their phase three trials as they seem increasingly confident their vaccine will be licensed in the UK at least before year's end. Of course I'm sure Serum in India will be ready to produce then also. They are by the way the world's largest vaccine producer. There have been no more public statements about the Oxford request for a challenge study, which by the way would not be blinded. There would be no placebo. However if this vaccine is highly effective a placebo would not be required.

One other development is that E.L.I Lilly are going to trial a synthetic monoclonal antibody against the S-Spike antigen. This is for therapeutic intent and as a bridge to vaccine. It was announced to day, that the University of Minnesota will be in charge of these trials.

All this is good news. I think there is a good chance we are now at or near the half way point of this crisis.

 

[KEW]

I suspect there is a fatal flaw to my logic, but if you were a nurse or doctor who has had Covid-19 and recovered ...
1) Wouldn't it make sense to deliberately maintain exposure so you don't lose your antibodies (or whatever allowed you to beat the virus)?
2) If you were maintaining such a state of immunity, would you be a risk of exposure to others (aside from contact transmission)? Right or wrong, I am thinking that the virus needs to gain a solid presence in your body before using you to replicate itself.

I'm sure I am missing something because I have not heard of anyone doing this, so where is the fault?
Thanks!

 

[Gmoney]

Getting close to 100 dead here where I live.