Coronavirus

[gene]

#21 on the hit list. The youngest of the bunch. You'll live and have stupid stories to tell people for years to come. (Tell Tica she can come over here and hide)

COVID-19 | Florida Department of Health

COVID-19

www.floridahealth.gov

That's friggin crazy. I woke this morning to local news declaring a state of emergency in Pasco county. They closed 2 schools because of me. I feel really shitty about this but hopefully one day this will be an entertaining story to tell my grandkids.

Good to still see you active on this forum Dave. Please stay safe and give your better half my regards.

 

[panteragstk]

That's friggin crazy. I woke this morning to local news declaring a state of emergency in Pasco county. They closed 2 schools because of me. I feel really shitty about this but hopefully one day this will be an entertaining story to tell my grandkids.

Good to still see you active on this forum Dave. Please stay safe and give your better half my regards.

Honestly I don't think it's something you should carry on your shoulders. You didn't ask for this. You came forward and we're honest. The local district made a decision to try to contain this thing and good for them. My local schools are closed too and we don't have a reported case (yet).

All you need to worry about is getting better. What would this group of misfits do without you? Sorry, but we're selfish in that way.

Hope you feel better soon.

 

[panteragstk]

 

[herbu]

We can't know accurate numbers for COVID-19 in advance. Now, we only have predictions and estimates based on incomplete data. Those who must make decisions are obliged to consider both worst case and best case scenarios and make a call now.

As of this morning, 5 states have decided shut public & private schools for at least 2 weeks: Maryland, Ohio, Michigan, New Mexico, and Oregon. More are likely to follow soon. That's in addition to those states or regions of states that have already closed schools. Those governors made a clear choice to address the worst case scenarios.

In addition, all major sports events have cancelled games and tournaments. This includes baseball (MLB), professional basketball's (NBA) entire remaining regular season, all of college basketball's championship tournaments (NCAA March Madness), professional hockey (NHL). And Disney World too. They really had no other choice. I'm glad they addressed reality.

In the meantime, as of last Wednesday evening, Trump chose to impose a travel ban on Europeans coming to the USA, but not Irish, Scottish or British. (Why not the UK & Ireland is a good, but unanswered question.) That travel ban was intended to prevent COVID-19 from entering the US. Too little, too late. It already is here.

In that same Wednesday evening address, Trump proposed spending billions of $ to aid individuals and corporations whose income or revenues might be hurt by the pandemic. That may soon become law if the GOP and Democrats can agree on a bill. It seems possible as of this morning.

If GOP supporters agree that travel bans and billions in aid are a good idea, they cannot also claim it's all in response a Democratic hoax. In my opinion, this is why you're being treated as if you're a troll.

Thanks Swerd. I know most here are liberal and politics will inevitably creep in. I'm as guilty as any. But there still seems to be some difference in the logic now and 10 years ago. There are a number of variables that may take a long time to accurately understand their numbers and contribution. Any of these variables can affect severity of the virus impact. And I understand the purpose of actions is to flatten the curve, slow the spread and number of people infected, and give us more time for preparations.

Here's what I don't get.
There are around 200k infected w/ Corona world wide. (This 2 days ago from CNN, but suits our discussion.)
There were 60M infected w/ H1N1 in the US alone 10 years ago.

So 10 years ago we had over 100x more people infected with H1N1 in the US than the whole world has now with Corona. But we never came close to the point of public or government reaction we have now reached with Corona. Why?

Doesn't a higher infected population balance out a lower mortality rate? Maybe Corona is 100x more fatal than H1N1, but if there are 100x more people infected with H1N1, wouldn't the result be the same? And if there are 1000x more people infected, wouldn't the result be 10x worse than Corona? (Estimates put the H1N1 Swine flu WW infection at ~1 Billion.) Wouldn't there be some point in that march to 1B that we would have triggered similar actions to today?

So why are we, (the world), taking extreme actions now that eclipse what we did 10 years ago for H1N1?

ps. I've never said this is a Democrat hoax. I've only asked why the difference in response to Corona and H1N1. I think those who have nothing to add beyond their feelings use the troll thing to hide behind. It's ok. Conservatives see that a lot.

 

[GO-NAD!]

Thanks Swerd. I know most here are liberal and politics will inevitably creep in. I'm as guilty as any. But there still seems to be some difference in the logic now and 10 years ago. There are a number of variables that may take a long time to accurately understand their numbers and contribution. Any of these variables can affect severity of the virus impact. And I understand the purpose of actions is to flatten the curve, slow the spread and number of people infected, and give us more time for preparations.

Here's what I don't get.
There are around 200k infected w/ Corona world wide. (This 2 days ago from CNN, but suits our discussion.)
There were 60M infected w/ H1N1 in the US alone 10 years ago.

So 10 years ago we had over 100x more people infected with H1N1 in the US than the whole world has now with Corona. But we never came close to the point of public or government reaction we have now reached with Corona. Why?

Doesn't a higher infected population balance out a lower mortality rate? Maybe Corona is 100x more fatal than H1N1, but if there are 100x more people infected with H1N1, wouldn't the result be the same? And if there are 1000x more people infected, wouldn't the result be 10x worse than Corona? (Estimates put the H1N1 Swine flu WW infection at ~1 Billion.) Wouldn't there be some point in that march to 1B that we would have triggered similar actions to today?

So why are we, (the world), taking extreme actions now that eclipse what we did 10 years ago for H1N1?

ps. I've never said this is a Democrat hoax. I've only asked why the difference in response to Corona and H1N1. I think those who have nothing to add beyond their feelings use the troll thing to hide behind. It's ok. Conservatives see that a lot.

I would think the reason is pretty obvious - since COVID-19 appears to have a far higher mortality rate than H1N1, it's far more critical to try to prevent it from becoming as widespread as H1N1.

 

[Swerd]

That's friggin crazy. I woke this morning to local news declaring a state of emergency in Pasco county. They closed 2 schools because of me. I feel really shitty about this but hopefully one day this will be an entertaining story to tell my grandkids.

Get well, and don't loose any sleep over this. It was not anything you could control.

I know of at least one state governor (Maryland) who said he declared a state-wide emergency only after there had been a single person who was infected by COVID-19 with only local exposure. There were probably other governors who did the same thing for the same reason. It may be that they were all advised to wait for this, as a threshold, before declaring an emergency.

 

[afterlife2]

Sending love to Gene. I just saw your video. Man hug brother!

 

[herbu]

I would think the reason is pretty obvious - since COVID-19 appears to have a far higher mortality rate than H1N1, it's far more critical to try to prevent it from becoming as widespread as H1N1.

No, that doesn't answer. If Corona has 100x higher mortality rate, but H1N1 is 100x more widespread, wouldn't the result be the same? And if H1N1 is 1000x more widespread...

 

[herbu]

I did find an explanation that sounds reasonable.
Assume Corona will infect 1M people in the US. If those people are infected over a period of 6 months, our medical resources could handle it. But if those same 1M people are infected over a period of 1 month, our resources would be overwhelmed. So the actions are designed to flatten the curve and spread out the infections over a longer time... and possibly even reduce the total number.

We knew the growth rate of H1N1. We don't know the growth rate of Corona, but it appears to be faster than H1N1.

That is the most simple and reasonable explanation I've heard.

 

[highfigh]

That's friggin crazy. I woke this morning to local news declaring a state of emergency in Pasco county. They closed 2 schools because of me. I feel really shitty about this but hopefully one day this will be an entertaining story to tell my grandkids.

Good to still see you active on this forum Dave. Please stay safe and give your better half my regards.

Only 2 schools? Wisconsin has closed all state schools and most of the other districts are following, which means there's gonna be a lot of bored kids on the loose. Milwaukee County has two people who are confirmed and they're canceling just about everything.

WRT the grandkids- you can tell them "I have powers you could never imagine- let's leave it at that".

 

[majorloser]

That's friggin crazy. I woke this morning to local news declaring a state of emergency in Pasco county. They closed 2 schools because of me. I feel really shitty about this but hopefully one day this will be an entertaining story to tell my grandkids.

Good to still see you active on this forum Dave. Please stay safe and give your better half my regards.

Just like a hurricane, if it gets really bad I will be quarantined at work. Already have my RV ready to park out back. As long as I don't get sick, all is good.

The wife's company are already setting up their employees to work from home.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

[majorloser]

Only 2 schools? Wisconsin has closed all state schools and most of the other districts are following, which means there's gonna be a lot of bored kids on the loose. Milwaukee County has two people who are confirmed and they're canceling just about everything.

WRT the grandkids- you can tell them "I have powers you could never imagine- let's leave it at that".

Many of the county's are already shutting down all school operations through the end of March. Most are on spring break, so it just extends the endpoint out.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

[Ponzio]

We don't know the growth rate of Corona, but it appears to be faster than H1N1.

Exactly and it's that expected exponential growth, per the CDC, that is driving this crisis, which will outstrip the H1N1 virus in deaths and severity, hence the pro-active worldwide response.

 

[GO-NAD!]

No, that doesn't answer. If Corona has 100x higher mortality rate, but H1N1 is 100x more widespread, wouldn't the result be the same? And if H1N1 is 1000x more widespread...

Once again, Rick, the goal would be to stop it from becoming as widespread as H1N1, due to its greater virulence, or at least slow down its progress to prevent health services being overwhelmed. I don't see how this can be disputed.

 

[RedCharles]

As soon as you actually send some.


The WHO did (http://www.virology.ws/2020/02/27/sars-cov-2-could-it-be-bad/); but now they are at 3.7% (https://time.com/5798168/coronavirus-mortality-rate/)

Your "no one is saying", when accounting for the times involved [sic], is another lie.

Oh good Christ. It was in the link I sent you 100 posts ago. Jesus.

Is Oxford good enough for you? Or are you smarter than them too?

Microsoft OneDrive

1drv.ms

Will you admit that you're wrong and apologize to me now?

LETS JUST RIP THE NUMBERS STRAIGHT OUT OF A CHINESE STUDY OF HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS AND PEG THAT AS THE ACTUAL DEATH RATE. If you understood the subject, you would know how stupid your post is. If you actually bothered reading the blog post that you posted, you would understand how stupid your post is. Or perhaps to concept is too complicated for you to understand. So yes, no one is saying 2% besides you.

"Many people are scared by the ‘apparent’ 2.3% case fatality ratio. This number is calculated by dividing the number of fatal cases by the total number of diagnosed cases. However, as shown in the table below, the number varies according to age. In those 49 years of age or younger, the case fatality ratio is less than 1%. Furthermore, the number of diagnosed cases is likely to be vastly underestimated. Many mild or asymptomatic infections are not diagnosed. It is possible that the number of infections is actually ten times higher than we detect, which would bring the overall case fatality ratio in the neighborhood of seasonal flu. As I said above, there is little concern about that disease. "

 

[Irvrobinson]

Oh good Christ. It was in the link I sent you 100 posts ago. Jesus.

Is Oxford good enough for you? Or are you smarter than them too?

Will you admit that you're wrong and apologize to me now?

Red, remember what Einstein said. "Intelligent people ignore."

 

[highfigh]

Many of the county's are already shutting down all school operations through the end of March. Most are on spring break, so it just extends the endpoint out.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Ours are closed until April 13.

 

[RedCharles]

That was a quote from a senior Italian physician on the ground yesterday, where I forget. However that is close to the Chinese report from their physicians in their report to the Lancet that got every ones attention. They had 49% needing some type of hospital care and 17% of those needing ICU care and about half of those needing invasive respiratory support.

I couldn't find any trace of your figures in the Lancet articles. Did I miss it?

https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus/research

I did find this JAMA article on the subject. Their figures are different than yours though.

Critical Care and the COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy: Early Experience and Forecast

This Viewpoint describes the organization of a regional ICU network in Lombardy, Italy, to handle the surge in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) who require intensive care and uses demand experience in the first 2 weeks of the outbreak to estimate...

jamanetwork.com

"The proportion of ICU admissions represents 12% of the total positive cases, and 16% of all hospitalized patients. This rate is higher than what was reported from China, where only 5% of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 required ICU admission.2,4 There could be different explanations. It is possible that criteria for ICU admission were different between the countries, but this seems unlikely. Another explanation is that the Italian population is different from the Chinese population, with predisposing factors such as race, age, and comorbidities."

I still really want to read what you read. Can you remember where you read those figures?

 

[TLS Guy]

I couldn't find any trace of your figures in the Lancet articles. Did I miss it?

https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus/research

I did find this JAMA article on the subject. Their figures are different than yours though.

Critical Care and the COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy: Early Experience and Forecast

This Viewpoint describes the organization of a regional ICU network in Lombardy, Italy, to handle the surge in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) who require intensive care and uses demand experience in the first 2 weeks of the outbreak to estimate...

jamanetwork.com

"The proportion of ICU admissions represents 12% of the total positive cases, and 16% of all hospitalized patients. This rate is higher than what was reported from China, where only 5% of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 required ICU admission.2,4 There could be different explanations. It is possible that criteria for ICU admission were different between the countries, but this seems unlikely. Another explanation is that the Italian population is different from the Chinese population, with predisposing factors such as race, age, and comorbidities."

I still really want to read what you read. Can you remember where you read those figures?

I think the confusion is arising in the difference of the two reports out of China. The first in Lancet which I quoted was from patients actually presenting or being sent to a hospital.

The later JAMA article included community data. That was in my post here. It was not clear what the critical patients represented in that article, but from that case I suspect it was those cases vented and on dialysis or ECMO, as that mortality is so high and higher than one would expect from ARDS and vent care alone.

The real worry is Italy. It seems there are towns in Northern Italy that are headed to have a generation wiped out by this.

One thing is pretty clear that this infection is about 10 times more lethal then any flu epidemic in my life time. The Asian and Honkong epidemics were the worst.

I think the Asian was 1957 and Hongkong 1969.

Anyhow we have to try and prevent that replicating here. Spain is now in total lock down and facing disaster, France is close and edging to lock down. Norway has grounded air flights.

We have never lived though anything like this. The big problem is how to pace the restrictions. We need herd immunity, so people need to be exposed and most get sick. We have to try an not overwhelm resources. However if we are over restrictive we will have repeated epidemics. I'm sure we will have some. This nightmare may not end until we have an antiviral the can lessen the severity of critical illness or we have a vaccine. The worry is that this could go on 18 months to 2 years.
There are just a terrible amount of judgement calls here for epidemiologists and physicians to make. In the rear view mirror not all will prove to be correct.

 

[NINaudio]

My job has told everyone who can work from home to start doing so next week. My department is not one that can typically work from home, but our boss told us all in a meeting that if we are part of one of the at risk groups to let him know and he will find a way for us to work from home. I have asthma and am prone to respiratory illnesses, so after discussing with my wife we agreed that I should work from home. Spoke with my boss and he agreed, so I am on self quarantine for the time being and he will just have me as working on day shift unless they need me to monitor things remotely during other shifts. I'm glad in a way that this is something I'm able to do, but I will also miss going in to work as I enjoy being there.