Fauci said 1%, which made me wonder how he got that figure. So I looked at the largest Chinese study to date and combined it China's population figures. There's two excel files and the relevant Chinese study in this onedrive folder.
1drv.ms
Assumptions:
1. Everyone is equally vulnerable and likely to get this disease.
2. Everyone over 80 went to the hospital and was confirmed.
3. Proportions of the Chinese data are correct
Assumptions one and two must be somewhat false, but mostly correct, considering the fact that no one has any immunity and old folks are always going to doctor. In fact, I think it's more likely that young people in crowded schools get this infection. So the actual CFR is probably even lower than my figure.
On the third page of the study, you'll find the good stuff. The CFR data from around the world about this virus is biased. Anyone with a mild case will likely not go to the hospital and therefore not be counted, which will make the disease appear more deadly than it is.
I took data from a population pyramid of China, and then using the number of cases over 80 as a center of gravity, I multiplied out the proportion, and then combined that with the actual death data which gave me an overall .741 CFR.
.741 CFR, R 2.68, X 330 million = 1.5 million Americans dead before herd immunity is achieved.
Thomas Friedman gives some
similar figures here (small change, big difference). It would seem that the American authorities believe the R value is around 2 rather than 2.68.
Plan for the worst but work for the best to limit spread, improve survival, and reduce the societal costs of COVID-19
www.thinkglobalhealth.org
~2.6 million Americans died from health issues in 2018. Once we get the number of dead for 2020, we'll be able to compare to other years and see how many were taken before their time by Sars-2. Which is to say, if you're at death's door, Corona will push you through.
Let's note that Germany has an ultra low CFR, and that Korea's CFR is below 1%. Furthermore, I also think it's more than likely that Italy has 80-100k Sars-2 infections, and not 15k. And by the way, the Johns Hopkins map has been really screwy today. NYT map is more up to date.
Neil Ferguson figured that Western nations were catching one out four cases, and that China was catching one out of ten. This video is over a month old, but it's worth watching.
What makes this virus a world stopper are three factors. It's many times deadlier than the average flu.
It has the potential to infect seven times as many people, and on top of that, the course of the disease is slow. It's those three factors together that are going to overwhelm every hospital in the world.
I'm not as concerned as I was nearly two months ago when I started this thread. Part of that is because I began preparing for STHTF 50 days ago, but also because the CFR is much lower than I initially thought (7%). I still don't want to get this, and it could kill anyone of us. I'm wearing a mask to the DMV tomorrow.
