Coronavirus

[Trell]

For a lot of people who don't get exposed to the SUN'S Vitamin D, it's very likely that their Vit. D level is rather low and that would make their immune system not as strong to fight against any virus or bacteria that is trying to invade them. In my opinion, this the case for most North Americans [added bold] who don't have access to a beach or other way to get exposed to the Sun's rays. Exposing only our head and arms is not enough to get a good exposition to the benefits of that important vitamin.

Really? Over here we don't let that stop us

No wonder @Irvrobinson thinks that universal healthcare is not possible to implement in USA

 

[Gmoney]

Really? Over here we don't let that stop us

No wonder @Irvrobinson thinks that universal healthcare is not possible to implement in USA

I’m moving to Sweden! Snow bunnies!

 

[Irvrobinson]

Really? Over here we don't let that stop us

No wonder @Irvrobinson thinks that universal healthcare is not possible to implement in USA

Just to set the record straight:

1. Verdinut is a Canadian.
2. I didn't say implementing universal healthcare in the US wasn't possible, I've said that it would be bad policy to do it as described in the ill-conceived and deceptively named Medicare-For-All bill.

 

[Trell]

Just to set the record straight:

1. Verdinut is a Canadian.

I didn't know that and I shall certainly not hold that against him! But I had a creepy suspicion that might be the case since he wrote "North Americans" instead of just plain "Americans".

2. I didn't say implementing universal healthcare in the US wasn't possible, I've said that it would be bad policy to do it as described in the ill-conceived and deceptively named Medicare-For-All bill.

Irv, I made that comment to make a little friendly fun of you.

 

[Verdinut]

Really? Over here we don't let that stop us

No wonder @Irvrobinson thinks that universal healthcare is not possible to implement in USA

I guess that you are in a Nordic country and you don't either get as much sun in winter. But you most likely are getting your vitamin D by consuming fish liver oil which is an excellent source of that vitamin.

 

[Trell]

I guess that you are in a Nordic country and you don't either get as much sun in winter. But you most likely are getting your vitamin D by consuming fish liver oil which is an excellent source of that vitamin.

Yeah, I never liked all those table spoons of that vile stuff when I was a kid! Toddlers today still get vitamin D supplements, but since we live in more civilized times there are better alternatives, I'm happy to say.

 

[JerryLove]

Go through the peer reviewed scientific articles I already sent you and make up your mind. Geez.

As soon as you actually send some.

No one saying the actual mortality rate is 2%. You're just making up facts. And you accuse me of lying?

The WHO did (http://www.virology.ws/2020/02/27/sars-cov-2-could-it-be-bad/); but now they are at 3.7% (https://time.com/5798168/coronavirus-mortality-rate/)

Your "no one is saying", when accounting for the times involved, is another lie.

 

[Rickster71]

it is not airborne but can be spread by spray or aerosolization. So people sneezing and such. Supposedly there are claims of spread at farther distances but it’s totally unclear to me how they come to those conclusions.

I think we shouldn’t really discuss pandemics by President. Trying to compare like this is not only inherently political but counterproductive.

the prior two pandemics are the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and then I am not sure the other you are referring to? Zika or Ebola?

in any case, we measure how dangerous a pandemic is by its total impact on the global population. How deadly it is for those infected and how easily it is already. COVID-19 is too new to have solid numbers. It’s mortality rate is unknown and likely to go down. But it’s R0 value is likely to go up And it’s already one of the most infectious viruses in modern times.

the Spanish Flu was H1N1 and it infected 500 million people and killed 20-50 million or more. Yet it’s mortality rate as a virus is just 1% or so. It’s R0 value is around 2.1. We have far deadlier influenza viruses floating around today.

the 2009 pandemic suffered the same survellience problem we face with COVID-19. Not enough testing. So for a point of comparison (since we can’t use the final unconfirmed number to compare), over a period of nearly 2 years it infected 1.4 billion people and is thought to have killed around 150,000 people. In the end it’s mortality rate was around .01%. It’s R0 is thought to be 1.6.

COVID-19, by comparison has an R0 value that has been estimated as high as 5. That’s many times higher than H1N1. It means it will (and so far is) spreading far faster than H1N1. No president in modern history has had to deal with a virus this contagious.

to make things worse, it’s mortality rate estimates are a lot higher, at least 10 times higher than H1N1. As screening increases that number will solidify more but unfortunately we won’t know the correct number for years to come. Right now the projections being made are based on inadequate surveillance and so they have to use Bayesian modeling to correct for that. Any statistical corrections may be wrong (even if they are more correct or less biased than no correction at all).

basically this virus isn’t like others and we shouldn’t be comparing numbers yet. It has only been around since November and only circulated in the USA since January/February. Poor surveillance and a botched test kit launch has really hampered our efforts to monitor it. None of this is political. Trump doesn’t make test kits. Let’s not polticize something like this.

What are your thoughts on the R0 of Measles being much higher than COVID-19? The R0 of Mumps and Smallpox was also higher than COVID-19.
I don't recall such a large reaction by the Press, or the panic buying of water and toilet paper, state of emergencies, etc.

 

[Ponzio]

We can't know accurate numbers for COVID-19 in advance. Now, we only have predictions and estimates based on incomplete data. Those who must make decisions are obliged to consider both worst case and best case scenarios and make a call now.

As of this morning, 5 states have decided shut public & private schools for at least 2 weeks: Maryland, Ohio, Michigan, New Mexico, and Oregon. More are likely to follow soon. That's in addition to those states or regions of states that have already closed schools. Those governors made a clear choice to address the worst case scenarios.

In the meantime, as of last Wednesday evening, Trump chose to impose a travel ban on Europeans coming to the USA, but not Irish, Scottish or British. (Why not the UK & Ireland is a good, but unanswered question.) That travel ban was intended to prevent COVID-19 from entering the US. Too little, too late. It already is here.

Add Pennsylvania to the list.

The commonality of the exempt countries is they all have Trump hotels/golf courses/properties.

Coincidence? I'll let you be the judge.

 

[Swerd]

What are your thoughts on the R0 of Measles being much higher than COVID-19? The R0 of Mumps and Smallpox was also higher than COVID-19.
I don't recall such a large reaction by the Press, or the panic buying of water and toilet paper, state of emergencies, etc.

There are highly effective vaccines for measles, mumps, and smallpox that have been widely available for decades. COVID-19 will not have any vaccine available for at least 1 to 1½ years.

 

[Rickster71]

There are highly effective vaccines for measles, mumps, and smallpox that have been widely available for decades. COVID-19 will not have any vaccine available for at least 1 to 1½ years.

That doesn't answer my question at all.
Perhaps I'll add to it, in hopes of clarifying.
The reactions by the press and public seems greater to this one.
Measles has a vaccine, yet, it's still around, and has an R0 usually cited between 12 and 18.

 

[mtrycrafts]

I agree. He did not seem well. We thought he did look like he was fighting back coughs, trying to look well. But the next day he seemed fine. I don't know what was going on. Maybe a cold, maybe exhaustion, I don't know.

Just drugged?

 

[mtrycrafts]

- They're not part of the 26 country "Schengen Area" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/world/europe/trump-travel-ban-coronavirus.html
The fact that Trump has resorts in Great Britain really has no bearing on the travel restrictions as someone else posted...

You mean he could not have added UK to the list if he really wanted to ban them as well?

 

[Trell]

Just drugged?

Truth is a potent drug.

 

[Irvrobinson]

Incidentally, the Swedish actor Max von Sydow (of The Exorcist fame as a priest) just passed away a few days ago at the very respectable age of 90, and one of his very early roles was to play chess against Death in a plague ridden Europe: The Seventh Seal (1957):

I liked him best in Three Days of the Condor.

 

[highfigh]

Yeah for those who want to know where this all came from, I am a methods expert/evaluator for government funded prevention and support programs. I help prove that our tax dollars are spent on support services that really work, basically.

Got any insight on these programs?

The Ten Most Ridiculous Ways the Government Wastes Your Money | National Review

Here are NR’s top-ten favorite — which is to say, most scoff-worthy and absurd — examples of how the government wastes your time, energy, and hard-earned cash.

www.nationalreview.com

 

[Trell]

I liked him best in Three Days of the Condor.

Absolutely! It's a very long time since I watched that movie, but then I'm not quite that young anymore ;-)

As for the Seventh Seal, the posted images are pretty much spot on for the religious character where I grew up.

 

[Mikado463]

I liked him best in Three Days of the Condor.

X2, great movie. may he RIP......

 

[mtrycrafts]

Absolutely! It's a very long time since I watched that movie, but then I'm not quite that young anymore ;-)

As for the Seventh Seal, the posted images are pretty much spot on for the religious character where I grew up.

So, now you are older by a very long time, right?

 

[Irvrobinson]

@gene

Your now infected blood may be valuable. Now that would really be Gene therapy:

Eli Lilly CEO aims to start testing coronavirus cure 'this summer'

"We're starting this because we believe it could work," Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks told CNBC in explaining the company's partnership with AbCellera Biologics.

www.cnbc.com