R

RedCharles

Full Audioholic
Fauci said 1%, which made me wonder how he got that figure. So I looked at the largest Chinese study to date and combined it China's population figures. There's two excel files and the relevant Chinese study in this onedrive folder.


Assumptions:
1. Everyone is equally vulnerable and likely to get this disease.
2. Everyone over 80 went to the hospital and was confirmed.
3. Proportions of the Chinese data are correct

Assumptions one and two must be somewhat false, but mostly correct, considering the fact that no one has any immunity and old folks are always going to doctor. In fact, I think it's more likely that young people in crowded schools get this infection. So the actual CFR is probably even lower than my figure.

On the third page of the study, you'll find the good stuff. The CFR data from around the world about this virus is biased. Anyone with a mild case will likely not go to the hospital and therefore not be counted, which will make the disease appear more deadly than it is.

I took data from a population pyramid of China, and then using the number of cases over 80 as a center of gravity, I multiplied out the proportion, and then combined that with the actual death data which gave me an overall .741 CFR.

.741 CFR, R 2.68, X 330 million = 1.5 million Americans dead before herd immunity is achieved.

Thomas Friedman gives some similar figures here (small change, big difference). It would seem that the American authorities believe the R value is around 2 rather than 2.68.


~2.6 million Americans died from health issues in 2018. Once we get the number of dead for 2020, we'll be able to compare to other years and see how many were taken before their time by Sars-2. Which is to say, if you're at death's door, Corona will push you through.

Let's note that Germany has an ultra low CFR, and that Korea's CFR is below 1%. Furthermore, I also think it's more than likely that Italy has 80-100k Sars-2 infections, and not 15k. And by the way, the Johns Hopkins map has been really screwy today. NYT map is more up to date.

Neil Ferguson figured that Western nations were catching one out four cases, and that China was catching one out of ten. This video is over a month old, but it's worth watching.

What makes this virus a world stopper are three factors. It's many times deadlier than the average flu. It has the potential to infect seven times as many people, and on top of that, the course of the disease is slow. It's those three factors together that are going to overwhelm every hospital in the world.

I'm not as concerned as I was nearly two months ago when I started this thread. Part of that is because I began preparing for STHTF 50 days ago, but also because the CFR is much lower than I initially thought (7%). I still don't want to get this, and it could kill anyone of us. I'm wearing a mask to the DMV tomorrow. :)
 
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R

RedCharles

Full Audioholic
Italy has about 50% requiring hospital care. This is higher than when it started there, but they are reporting more patients getting into difficulty over time. China had 49%. needing hospital care and 10% required ICU care.
Source? Those figures are wildly different than everything I've read. I'd really like to read what you're reading please.
 
GO-NAD!

GO-NAD!

Audioholic Spartan
Today, 12 March, in Maryland, the governor ordered that public schools close starting Monday for the next two weeks. Usually private schools follow that same schedule.

All public gatherings in Maryland of 250 people or more should be cancelled. I had concert tickets for Saturday night, the BSO was scheduled to play Mahler's 3rd Symphony. I no longer wonder if I should go or stay home.

I had plans to go out to lunch tomorrow for my wife's birthday with her brother, sister, and their spouses. We've postponed that indefinitely. All that is a good start.

A more personal medical note:
I drove to Baltimore today to see my inflammation eye doctor. My inflamed eye is responding well to prednisone. I did 4 weeks at 60 mg/day, 2 weeks at 40 mg/day, and starting tomorrow I'll go to 30 mg/day. I'll probably stay at that dose until I have surgery on 13 April. Prednisone at 30 mg/day is still immune suppresive enough to worry about being highly susceptible for Covid-19 infection. So for the next 4 weeks I'll be keeping a very low profile.
I'm hoping all goes well for you. Now go wash your hands! :D
 
GO-NAD!

GO-NAD!

Audioholic Spartan
The Prime Minister's wife has tested positive for COVID-19 after returning from a speaking engagement in the UK. The PM is staying in isolation as a precaution, but has no symptoms, so far.

 
H

herbu

Audioholic Samurai
He looked and sounded like he's already contracted COVID-19.
I agree. He did not seem well. We thought he did look like he was fighting back coughs, trying to look well. But the next day he seemed fine. I don't know what was going on. Maybe a cold, maybe exhaustion, I don't know.
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Seriously, I have no life.
Source? Those figures are wildly different than everything I've read. I'd really like to read what you're reading please.
That was a quote from a senior Italian physician on the ground yesterday, where I forget. However that is close to the Chinese report from their physicians in their report to the Lancet that got every ones attention. They had 49% needing some type of hospital care and 17% of those needing ICU care and about half of those needing invasive respiratory support. So I find reports from China and Italy at this stage of their outbreaks pretty consistent. Although the ventilator requirement in Italy seems slightly higher. This is almost certainly due to the average age in Italy being higher than China. It is too soon to know what ours will be. We will find out in Seattle pretty soon I fear.
 
H

herbu

Audioholic Samurai
New US numbers. 60 million infected, 300k hospitalized. Some estimates exceed half a million deaths. No wait... those are H1N1 Flu numbers from 10 years ago in the US. Remember when we closed everything? Yeh... me neither. So I'll ask again. If the H1N1 numbers didn't trigger all the closings, why do the Corona numbers now.

The purpose of all the closings is to delay/prevent spreading of the disease. But if H1N1 could spread from 20k to 60M with deaths up to 0.5M and NOT trigger these actions, what is different now?

I especially look forward to responses from all the experts whose qualification is no more than a good wifi.
 
GO-NAD!

GO-NAD!

Audioholic Spartan
New US numbers. 60 million infected, 300k hospitalized. Some estimates exceed half a million deaths. No wait... those are H1N1 Flu numbers from 10 years ago in the US. Remember when we closed everything? Yeh... me neither. So I'll ask again. If the H1N1 numbers didn't trigger all the closings, why do the Corona numbers now.

The purpose of all the closings is to delay/prevent spreading of the disease. But if H1N1 could spread from 20k to 60M with deaths up to 0.5M and NOT trigger these actions, what is different now?

I especially look forward to responses from all the experts whose qualification is no more than a good wifi.
The mortality rate of H1N1 was .02%. Number of US deaths was 12,469. Although we still don't have a firm mortality rate for COVID-19, it looks like it will be far, far higher.

 
H

herbu

Audioholic Samurai
The mortality rate of H1N1 was .02%. Number of US deaths was 12,469. Although we still don't have a firm mortality rate for COVID-19, it looks like it will be far, far higher.
GO-NAD, my apologies. You're right. Did some further searches and found this from the CDC: "Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated." It was WW, not just the US. But the 60M and 300K agree with the CDC.

I still have the same question. While it's true we don't really know the Corona numbers, if all the shutdowns are to slow the virus progress, wouldn't we have had the same goal at some point on the way to 60M and 300K?
 
GO-NAD!

GO-NAD!

Audioholic Spartan
GO-NAD, my apologies. You're right. Did some further searches and found this from the CDC: "Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated." It was WW, not just the US. But the 60M and 300K agree with the CDC.

I still have the same question. While it's true we don't really know the Corona numbers, if all the shutdowns are to slow the virus progress, wouldn't we have had the same goal at some point on the way to 60M and 300K?
Hey, no apology required. There's so much data flying around, it's easy to get inaccurate numbers. :)

I can only guess that since H1N1 was - apparently - less lethal than seasonal flu (.1% mortality rate), such drastic measures weren't deemed necessary.
 
S

snakeeyes

Audioholic Ninja
There is a NY Times article that shows a worst case scenario.

I’m unable to link it.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Samurai
The following article dated 3/12/20 concernign the situation in Europe is somewhat redundant to other information that has already been posted here, but it underscores the points TLS Guy has been making (TLS Guy, feel free to correct me if I've misinterpreted).

>>>In a stark and urgent COVID-19 risk assessment update today, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said that, in a few weeks or even days, other countries in the region may face huge surges that mirror those of China and Italy.

It advised countries to quickly shift to mitigation strategies to protect vulnerable people and prevent overwhelmed hospitals. . . .

In a Lancet report today, two authors from Italy said the percentage of COVID-19 patients needing ICU treatment has ranged from 9% to 11% and that ICUs will be at maximum capacity if that trend continues for 1 more week. They predicted that Italy will need 4,000 more ICU beds over the next month, a challenge given that the country has about 5,200 ICU beds. . . .

In its assessment today, the ECDC said the risk of severe disease is moderate for the general population but high for older people and those with underlying medical conditions. Increased community transmission may exceed health system capacities in the coming weeks, it said, and countries should act now to step up hospital infection control and surge capacity.

The ECDC said estimates for hospital care suggest that most European countries could reach Hubei province scenarios by the end of March, with all countries reaching that point by mid-April.

The group urged member countries to implement social distancing measures such as cancelling mass gatherings and cordoning off hotspots early to slow outbreaks and give health systems more time to prepare for an influx of patients.<<<

 
Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Warlord
… I still have the same question. While it's true we don't really know the Corona numbers, if all the shutdowns are to slow the virus progress, wouldn't we have had the same goal at some point on the way to 60M and 300K?
We can't know accurate numbers for COVID-19 in advance. Now, we only have predictions and estimates based on incomplete data. Those who must make decisions are obliged to consider both worst case and best case scenarios and make a call now.

As of this morning, 5 states have decided shut public & private schools for at least 2 weeks: Maryland, Ohio, Michigan, New Mexico, and Oregon. More are likely to follow soon. That's in addition to those states or regions of states that have already closed schools. Those governors made a clear choice to address the worst case scenarios.

In addition, all major sports events have cancelled games and tournaments. This includes baseball (MLB), professional basketball's (NBA) entire remaining regular season, all of college basketball's championship tournaments (NCAA March Madness), professional hockey (NHL). And Disney World too. They really had no other choice. I'm glad they addressed reality.

In the meantime, as of last Wednesday evening, Trump chose to impose a travel ban on Europeans coming to the USA, but not Irish, Scottish or British. (Why not the UK & Ireland is a good, but unanswered question.) That travel ban was intended to prevent COVID-19 from entering the US. Too little, too late. It already is here.

In that same Wednesday evening address, Trump proposed spending billions of $ to aid individuals and corporations whose income or revenues might be hurt by the pandemic. That may soon become law if the GOP and Democrats can agree on a bill. It seems possible as of this morning.

If GOP supporters agree that travel bans and billions in aid are a good idea, they cannot also claim it's all in response a Democratic hoax. In my opinion, this is why you're being treated as if you're a troll.
 
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Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Warlord
- They're not part of the 26 country "Schengen Area" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/world/europe/trump-travel-ban-coronavirus.html
The fact that Trump has resorts in Great Britain really has no bearing on the travel restrictions as someone else posted...
What would prevent someone from first traveling from the Schengen Area to the UK, and then flying to the US?

I may be cynical, but I've seen too many examples of Trump choosing his own personal financial or political gain over actions that might benefit of our country.
 
chris357

chris357

Senior Audioholic
What would prevent someone from first traveling from the Schengen Area to the UK, and then flying to the US?

I may be cynical, but I've seen too many examples of Trump choosing his own personal financial or political gain over actions that might benefit of our country.
What exactly is Trump doing for his personal gain? Political gain? Compared to the dems politicizing this which is totally in their political best interest.

They have bans between those other areas now so UK is not allowing people from those affected areas.
 
Trell

Trell

Audioholic Spartan
I agree. He did not seem well. We thought he did look like he was fighting back coughs, trying to look well. But the next day he seemed fine. I don't know what was going on. Maybe a cold, maybe exhaustion, I don't know.
Attempting to speak some truth clearly took its toll, though he failed at that as well.
 

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