Ukraine – Russia … not more of the last thread

[Mr._Clark]

The NYT reported yesterday that Surovikin, a Russian general, had prior knowledge of Prigozhin's plans.

>>>A senior Russian general had advance knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans to rebel against Russia’s military leadership, according to U.S. officials briefed on American intelligence on the matter, which has prompted questions about what support the mercenary leader had inside the top ranks.

The officials said they are trying to learn if Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former top Russian commander in Ukraine, helped plan Mr. Prigozhin’s actions last weekend, which posed the most dramatic threat to President Vladimir V. Putin in his 23 years in power.<<<

Russian General Knew About Mercenary Chief’s Rebellion Plans, U.S. Officials Say (Published 2023)

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, may have believed he had support in Russia’s military.

www.nytimes.com

Again, to my mind this is all still murky.

 

[GO-NAD!]

According to this report, Prigozhin planned to capture Shoigu and Gerasimov, but the FSB learned about it two days before.

>>>Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin planned to seize two of Russia top military officials when he launched a short-lived mutiny on Saturday, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing Western officials.

Prigozhin’s plot involved the capture of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and top army general Valery Gerasimov when the pair visited a region along the border of Ukraine, the WSJ wrote.

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) learned of the plot two days before it was due to take place, forcing Prigozhin to change his plans at the last minute and launch a march towards Moscow instead, according to the report.<<<

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/28/europe/wagner-prigozhin-rebellion-capture-attempt-intl/index.html

To my mind the situation is still murky.

I think Prigozhin needs to sleep with one eye open for the rest of his days.

 

[GO-NAD!]

The Miles of Obstacles Slowing Ukraine’s Counteroffensive - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

It was never going to be easy. Without control of the skies, air support will be a big limitation. And, offensive operations tend to be more difficult and costly than defence. I think Ukraine's greatest hope for success may reside in continuing - and increasing - turmoil within the upper ranks of Russian forces and regime.

That said, I think their ability to advance at all deserves a tip of the hat.

 

[mtrycrafts]

I think Prigozhin needs to sleep with one eye open for the rest of his days.

He needs to weld shut all the windows wherever he travels and stay on the ground floor.

 

[Mr._Clark]

I think Prigozhin needs to sleep with one eye open for the rest of his days.

Yeah, no doubt. I saw a report the other day entitled "Prigozhin is Back On His Soapbox Two Days After Outright Mutiny." I found myself thinking he would do well to stay away from soapboxes or buildings with more than one floor.

Prigozhin Is Back On His Soapbox Two Days After Outright Mutiny

After more than a day of uncharacteristic silence, the head of the Wagner mercenary group opened up about his mutinous march on Moscow.

www.thedrive.com

 

[Mr._Clark]

The NYT reported yesterday that Surovikin, a Russian general, had prior knowledge of Prigozhin's plans.

>>>A senior Russian general had advance knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans to rebel against Russia’s military leadership, according to U.S. officials briefed on American intelligence on the matter, which has prompted questions about what support the mercenary leader had inside the top ranks.

The officials said they are trying to learn if Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former top Russian commander in Ukraine, helped plan Mr. Prigozhin’s actions last weekend, which posed the most dramatic threat to President Vladimir V. Putin in his 23 years in power.<<<

Russian General Knew About Mercenary Chief’s Rebellion Plans, U.S. Officials Say (Published 2023)

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, may have believed he had support in Russia’s military.

www.nytimes.com

Again, to my mind this is all still murky.

There are now unconfirmed reports that Surovikin has been arrested.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1674138362377129984

Given that the source of this report is the Moscow Times, this obviously needs to be taken with an exceptionally large grain of salt.

On the other hand, Surovikin was apparently quite effective in Ukraine, so his arrest (if true) might have a negative effect on the Russian forces. This is not meant to imply that he's an honorable person. He is clearly not any such thing.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Greg Yudin wrote an interesting article about the Wagner mutiny for the Atlantic. A military expert told him that Wagner probably could have taken Moscow if Lukashenko hadn't brokered a deal.

His main point is that Russia has reached a dead end in Ukraine, and has no good way out..

>>>I had lunch with a military expert that day [Saturday]. He told me that three divisions were in principle tasked with defending Moscow, but he was far from certain that they would obey the orders. Short of that, he reckoned that the Wagner troops would meet no resistance on their way to the capital. A bridge across the Ob River had evidently been prepared for destruction if a natural barrier was needed, and a few military vehicles patrolled the city. But Moscow did not look at all likely to withstand an assault. . . .

Was Putin deliberately refraining from taking military action? Not exactly: The Russian air force consistently (and unsuccessfully) attacked the Wagner convoy, which shot down several helicopters and planes, killing their pilots. There seemed to be neither an order to stand by, nor one to intervene, nor any order at all. . . .

Prigozhin’s aborted march on Moscow made clear that Putin was no longer the arbiter of a conflict among warlords: He was himself part of the conflict, which was why not he but Belarus’s president, Aleksandr Lukashenko, served as its mediator. And although the two forces at odds on Saturday could hardly be classified as supporters versus opponents of the war in Ukraine, the deeper import of their standoff is the unspoken acknowledgment that the invasion, and with it Russia, has reached a dead end. Nobody has a working plan, all responsibility is delegated, and the president keeps doing what is clearly not working, while his power gradually erodes. Russia is reckoning with the fact that it cannot continue like this. <<< (emphasis added).

Russia Has Reached a Dead End

An indifferent response to a warlord’s march on Moscow heralds the dawning realization that Russia has no good way out in Ukraine.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[GO-NAD!]

Ukraine's counteroffensive struggles against Russian fortifications, airpower | CBC News

 

[Verdinut]

Ukraine's counteroffensive struggles against Russian fortifications, airpower | CBC News

But progress is slowly being made however.

 

[Mr._Clark]

This video purportedly shows a stockpile of Russian rocket artillery ammunition cooking off (watch at least the first 30 seconds or so to see the major blasts). It looks like at least some incendiary munitions cooked off.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676512131125063680

 

[mtrycrafts]

This video purportedly shows a stockpile of Russian rocket artillery ammunition cooking off (watch at least the first 30 seconds or so to see the major blasts). It looks like at least some incendiary munitions cooked off.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676512131125063680

Oh, WOW. Early 4th fireworks in Ukraine.

 

[GO-NAD!]

But progress is slowly being made however.

Yes, the article clearly makes that point.

 

[mixTape]

But progress is slowly being made however.

Rush will start after first two lines of fortifications will be destoyed. Also the problem that Ukraine can't use soldiers like meat, so they do counteroffensive accurate and with the least losses.

 

[Trell]

I'm sceptical about giving Ukraine cluster munitions, like so many others, but USA seem to consider this seriously.

>>>A decision on whether to send cluster munitions to Ukraine is on President Joe Biden’s desk, and could be finalized this week, according to two U.S. officials.

Biden is expected to approve sending the weapons, one of the officials said. Ukrainian forces are struggling to break through Russia’s front lines during their counteroffensive and officials believe providing the munitions will give Kyiv an edge, as its supplies of conventional weapons dwindle. The officials, as well as a congressional aide with knowledge of the discussions, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a decision that is not yet final.

The Biden administration’s views on providing cluster munitions to Ukraine have shifted over the past year. In December, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the U.S. had “concerns” about sending the controversial weapons, which are banned by more than 100 countries because unexploded ordnance can end up killing civilians. ...<<<

U.S. to include controversial cluster munitions in new Ukraine weapons package

Officials say sending the weapons could give Kyiv an edge.

www.politico.com

 

[GO-NAD!]

I'm sceptical about giving Ukraine cluster munitions, like so many others, but USA seem to consider this seriously.

>>>A decision on whether to send cluster munitions to Ukraine is on President Joe Biden’s desk, and could be finalized this week, according to two U.S. officials.

Biden is expected to approve sending the weapons, one of the officials said. Ukrainian forces are struggling to break through Russia’s front lines during their counteroffensive and officials believe providing the munitions will give Kyiv an edge, as its supplies of conventional weapons dwindle. The officials, as well as a congressional aide with knowledge of the discussions, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a decision that is not yet final.

The Biden administration’s views on providing cluster munitions to Ukraine have shifted over the past year. In December, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the U.S. had “concerns” about sending the controversial weapons, which are banned by more than 100 countries because unexploded ordnance can end up killing civilians. ...<<<

U.S. to include controversial cluster munitions in new Ukraine weapons package

Officials say sending the weapons could give Kyiv an edge.

www.politico.com

I thought cluster munitions had been banned. I was partly right...

Convention on Cluster Munitions - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Trell]

I thought cluster munitions had been banned. I was partly right...

Convention on Cluster Munitions - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

USA has not ratified the Mine Ban Treaty while other NATO members have. Another sticky point.

Ottawa Treaty - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Trell]

I'm sceptical about giving Ukraine cluster munitions, like so many others, but USA seem to consider this seriously.

>>>A decision on whether to send cluster munitions to Ukraine is on President Joe Biden’s desk, and could be finalized this week, according to two U.S. officials.

Biden is expected to approve sending the weapons, one of the officials said. Ukrainian forces are struggling to break through Russia’s front lines during their counteroffensive and officials believe providing the munitions will give Kyiv an edge, as its supplies of conventional weapons dwindle. The officials, as well as a congressional aide with knowledge of the discussions, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a decision that is not yet final.

The Biden administration’s views on providing cluster munitions to Ukraine have shifted over the past year. In December, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the U.S. had “concerns” about sending the controversial weapons, which are banned by more than 100 countries because unexploded ordnance can end up killing civilians. ...<<<

U.S. to include controversial cluster munitions in new Ukraine weapons package

Officials say sending the weapons could give Kyiv an edge.

www.politico.com

Ukraine are getting cluster munitions.

>>>The Biden administration has decided to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine and is expected to announce on Friday that the Pentagon will send thousands as part of a new military aid package worth up to $800 million for the war effort against Russia, according to people familiar with the decision.

The decision comes despite widespread concerns that the controversial bombs can cause civilian casualties. The Pentagon will provide munitions that have a reduced “dud rate,” meaning there will be far fewer unexploded rounds that can result in unintended civilian deaths.

U.S. officials said Thursday they expect the military aid to Ukraine will be announced on Friday. The weapons will come from Pentagon stocks and will also include Bradley and Stryker armored vehicles and an array of ammunition, such as rounds for howitzers and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, known as HIMARS, officials said. …<<<

The US will provide cluster munitions to Ukraine as part of a new military aid package: AP sources

The Biden administration has decided to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine and is expected to announce on Friday that the Pentagon will send thousands as part of a new military aid package worth up to $800 million for the war effort against Russia.

apnews.com

 

[GO-NAD!]

I fully understand the objections to using cluster munitions. But, when you're fighting for your country's very survival, I can also understand the motivation to use them.
U.S. decision to send cluster munitions to Ukraine could put Canada, others on the spot | CBC News

 

[Trell]

It's now 500 days since the brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine and below is picture of Zelensky from day 1 and day 500. The war has taken its toll but he's as defiant as ever. The day 500 picture is from is visit to Snake Island on day 500.

Ukraine and the West was lucky that he was President of Ukraine at that time.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1677612858383958018

 

[Trell]

On day 500 Zelensky visited Snake Island (highly dangerous). The island is know for the Ukrainian soldiers saying "Russian warship, go f*ck yourself" when told to surrender.

His speech given on Snake Island is given here: https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/zmiyinij-vilnij-ostriv-vilnoyi-ukrayini-zvernennya-prezident-84181

And the YouTube clip of the visit below.