To understand Russia & Putin, we have to re-learn some poorly remembered lessons from the Cold War: How to stop thinking like an optimistic American and see the world through Russian eyes. They’re extremely paranoid and have great trouble cooperating with others, even if they’d benefit from cooperating. I’m quoting a Russian proverb from a book, Red Notice by Bill Browder. (I've posted this before, but it seems relevant now.)
The moral is simple: Russians will gladly – gleefully – sacrifice their own success to screw their neighbor. This pessimism infects all their thinking. When first exposed to American optimism, Russians take offense at our confidence, claiming we are both arrogant and naïve about the ways of the world.
Last March, I posted my thoughts that nothing short of removing Putin from power would lead to peace of some kind. It greatly disturbed me to say that, as I hated the idea that it might take US & NATO troops to do that.
During the Cold War, the answer was to fool the Soviets into poking their own eyes out. It took 50 years and trillions of $, and it only succeeded in avoiding a nuclear war while the Soviet Union slowly collapsed from within. Their disastrous invasion of Afghanistan in 1980 helped speed things along near the end of the Cold War. But the threat of NATO was the only thing we know that actually succeeded in blunting the USSR threat during the Cold War.
And now, we see it happening again. Putin & his supporters have apparently poked their own eyes out – again.
The biggest problem with the second world war, was that we didn't prevent it. Churchill wrote in his memoirs, that it was the "most preventable of all wars." We must not make the same mistake this time. So far, we have not. As soon as Putin threatened a neighbor we supported Ukraine to the hilt.
Now, we must be ready to act more decisively.
Russia may degenerate into a wider civil war, and make no mistake they have one. I personally don't see how Putin survives this debacle. However, it is very uncertain what comes next. This chap Yevgeny Prigozhin is a very nasty piece of work, by all accounts, and more likely than not, more dangerous than Putin, but with better 'street smarts'. He was in prison for twelve years and started a high end Restaurant on Moscow, and got to know Putin. He became his "fixer". Somewhat akin to Cohen and Trump. He now sees his chance. Now his 'army' is packed with imprisoners. So, the question becomes are these just thugs and violent criminals, or are there among there ranks motivated and intelligent political prisoners. I have to think there are quite a few of those, given recent Russian history. So, that could be a spark of hope.
There will be a narrow window of opportunity for intervention. If there is serious instability and brutality by Yevgeny Prigozhin's forces in Russia, then NATO must intervene and impose order. I hope speedy plans are being made. This could require a rapid general mobilization. One thing I do know, is that Russia can't be allowed to run amok and have nukes on the loose.
The big question is: - what will China do?
1). Little or nothing. In its history, China has generally acted to protect and expand trading routes.
2). So, taking that on board, China taking the opportunity to invade Taiwan is high on the list.
3). Less likely, China may move to take back territory it claims in Siberia. This is a resource rich area. The Chinese are likely too smart to make the mistake of fighting on two fronts.
Although there is not much official comment from Washington, Brussels, Downing Street or Whitehall, I would bet the mood music is "Nessun Dorma!" That returns us to an audio topic.
