Ukraine – Russia … not more of the last thread

M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Field Marshall
According to this report, Russian military equipment utilizes quite a few U.S. made chips. In order to keep the snip at a reasonable size, I have not included statements by several chip makers who indicated they no longer sell to Russia, their chips are not specialized, etc.

>>>In the Barnaul-T air defense command post vehicle, for example, Ukraine intelligence said its specialists found eight microchips from U.S. manufacturers like Intel, Micrel, Micron Technology and Atmel Corp. in its communications systems.

Ukrainian specialists also found five U.S.-made chips - manufactured by AMD, Rochester Electronics, Texas Instruments, and Linear Technology - in the direction finder of a Pantsir air defense system. . . .

There were at least 35 U.S.-made chips found in the Kh-101 cruise missile, including those manufactured by Texas Instruments, Atmel Corp. Rochester Electronics, Cypress Semiconductor, Maxim Integrated, XILINX, Infineon Technologies, Intel, Onsemi, and Micron Technology. . . .

But Skip Parish, a counter-drone/directed energy weapons/electronic warfare/red team subject matter expert for NATO and the U.S. military, reviewed the list of components provided by Ukraine intelligence and said they raise a number of issues.

It highlights, he said, a “total dependence on western technology” in applications of “integrated chips sets in key sensitive working parts of Russian weapon systems - targeting, navigation, communications and execution of the weapon."
It also shows the “breakdown or non-existent U.S. controls” in International Traffic in Arms Regulations, “both supporting investigations when found in foreign weapons.”<<<

 
mtrycrafts

mtrycrafts

Seriously, I have no life.
According to this report, Russian military equipment utilizes quite a few U.S. made chips. In order to keep the snip at a reasonable size, I have not included statements by several chip makers who indicated they no longer sell to Russia, their chips are not specialized, etc.

>>>In the Barnaul-T air defense command post vehicle, for example, Ukraine intelligence said its specialists found eight microchips from U.S. manufacturers like Intel, Micrel, Micron Technology and Atmel Corp. in its communications systems.

Ukrainian specialists also found five U.S.-made chips - manufactured by AMD, Rochester Electronics, Texas Instruments, and Linear Technology - in the direction finder of a Pantsir air defense system. . . .

There were at least 35 U.S.-made chips found in the Kh-101 cruise missile, including those manufactured by Texas Instruments, Atmel Corp. Rochester Electronics, Cypress Semiconductor, Maxim Integrated, XILINX, Infineon Technologies, Intel, Onsemi, and Micron Technology. . . .

But Skip Parish, a counter-drone/directed energy weapons/electronic warfare/red team subject matter expert for NATO and the U.S. military, reviewed the list of components provided by Ukraine intelligence and said they raise a number of issues.

It highlights, he said, a “total dependence on western technology” in applications of “integrated chips sets in key sensitive working parts of Russian weapon systems - targeting, navigation, communications and execution of the weapon."
It also shows the “breakdown or non-existent U.S. controls” in International Traffic in Arms Regulations, “both supporting investigations when found in foreign weapons.”<<<

US should have mandated a back door into those chips that could be turned off right now. :eek:
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Field Marshall
US should have mandated a back door into those chips that could be turned off right now. :eek:
I think China beat us to the idea, just not in Russian military hardware.

>>>Nested on the servers’ motherboards, the testers found a tiny microchip, not much bigger than a grain of rice, that wasn’t part of the boards’ original design. Amazon reported the discovery to U.S. authorities, sending a shudder through the intelligence community. Elemental’s servers could be found in Department of Defense data centers, the CIA’s drone operations, and the onboard networks of Navy warships. And Elemental was just one of hundreds of Supermicro customers.

During the ensuing top-secret probe, which remains open more than three years later, investigators determined that the chips allowed the attackers to create a stealth doorway into any network that included the altered machines. Multiple people familiar with the matter say investigators found that the chips had been inserted at factories run by manufacturing subcontractors in China.<<<

 
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M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Field Marshall
I can think of several possible incentives for SA to increase oil production.

SA is sitting on huge oil reserves, and oil prices are quite high right now. This might be the most they can ever get for their oil. I realize that increasing oil production will likely put some downward pressure on oil prices, but SA could still pocket huge profits over the short term. I suspect they like having lots of cash.

The high price of oil creates incentives to switch to renewable energy and/or increase production of oil from sources (e.g. oil shale) that are not profitable if oil prices are lower. Once countries invest in other sources of energy, they will likely have a reduced incentive to switch back to oil (i.e. sustained high oil prices now could lead to reduced demand (and prices) for oil in the future due to a more rapid transition to other sources of energy).

SA and Russia got into an oil price war in 2020, and SA increased oil production. This was apparently the exact opposite of what Russia wanted. According to wiki, this actually led to negative oil prices for a period of time:

>>>he price of oil became negative on 20 April. Oil production can be slowed, but not stopped completely, and even the lowest possible production level resulted in greater supply than demand; those holding oil futures became willing to pay to offload contracts for oil they expected to be unable to store.<<<

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Russia–Saudi_Arabia_oil_price_war

SA might want to disincentivize Russian investment in oil production capabilities by reducing oil prices so that Russia cannot make a profit on it's oil, and therefore stops investing in new production capacity (e.g. stops exploration and drilling). Basically, weaken Russia's ability to produce oil.

I realize there are plenty of arguments against SA increasing production. I really have no idea how SA views it. I'm just throwing these out as possible incentives.
OPEC is reportedly increasing increasing production significantly, but it's probably not going to be enough to make up for the reductions in oil from Russia. Nevertheless, this is good news compared to what had been expected.

>>>OPEC and its oil-producing allies agreed on Thursday to hike output in July and August by a larger-than-expected amount as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine wreaks havoc on global energy markets. . . .

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the administration welcomed OPEC+’s announcement.

“We recognize the role of Saudi Arabia as the chair of OPEC+ and its largest producer in achieving this consensus amongst the group members,” she said in a statement, before adding that the “United States will continue to use all tools at [its] disposal to address energy prices pressures.”

While in theory output will be higher looking forward, OPEC+ has been struggling to meet production quotas. Moreover, the additional barrels slated to hit the market will not make up for the potential loss of more than one million barrels per day from Russia as nations around the world ramp up sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine. <<<

 
haraldo

haraldo

Audioholic Spartan
⚡Ukrainian Oleksii Bokoch mapped out the area occupied by the Russian military in Ukraine and showed how much territory it really is when compared with other countries in Europe. The occupied territory can be compared with most of Italy, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, or Austria and Switzerland combined, half of the UK or Germany, or Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina combined.
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M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Field Marshall
Just an FYI in case anyone is interested, this twitter account has some of the most detailed and frequent updates of any I've seen so far. The information appears to be accurate, but it's hard to know for sure so the usual disclaimers apply (I have no desire to spread misinformation, so I'd be interested in any information debunking what is posted on this twitter account).

 
SithZedi

SithZedi

Audioholic General
Interesting piece by Kofman published a few days ago.

 
haraldo

haraldo

Audioholic Spartan
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❗ The Russian military plans to open centers for issuing Russian passports in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian towns of Berdiansk, Enerhodar, and other settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region

Forced passportization is a violation of international law.
 
haraldo

haraldo

Audioholic Spartan
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First Lady Olena Zelenska urged the world not to get used to Russia's war against Ukraine


After all, if it happens, the war will never end. The First Lady said this in an interview with the American TV channel ABC, which she gave in Kyiv.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Field Marshall
Interesting. So far I have not seen any other reports confirming this, but that of course does not prove that it is false.

Andrei Soldatov appears to have pretty decent insight into the Russian government, and pretty decent sources in Russia as well (assuming he's not misrepresenting anything, which I do not know to be a fact). He wrote an article for Foreign Affairs a few weeks ago expressing his view that the odds of a coup attempt are low:

>>>As a former KGB officer himself, Putin has long relied on the security services to enforce his policies and help him maintain his grip on power. And although the siloviki have been somewhat eclipsed by Shoigu’s Defense Ministry in recent years, never before has Putin appeared to be so at odds with both the security services and the military as he is now. Given Putin’s increasingly ruthless crackdown on these men and the growing awareness in Moscow that the war has gone badly, some observers are wondering how long they will tolerate his catastrophic mistakes.

Such questions, however, overlook the historical relationship between the security forces and the Russian state—and the particular way that Putin has built his base of power. Although the recent developments are noteworthy, they do not suggest a larger breakdown of the existing order. Even amid the current tensions, the chances that leading members of the security or military elite might make a move against Putin remain slim. It is worth considering, then, why this is so, and what might have to happen for that to change.<<<

Andrei Soldatov is now on Russia's wanted list. As I understand it he is based in London, so it's doubtful that Russia could extradite him. Being charged by the Russian government with spreading fake news appears to be (in reality) a charge that the person is telling the truth.

>>>LONDON, June 6 (Reuters) - Investigative journalist Andrei Soldatov, known for his coverage of Russian security agencies, said on Monday that Russian authorities had placed him on a wanted list and frozen his bank accounts.

Soldatov, who co-founded the Agentura.ru website, wrote on Twitter: "My Monday: my accounts in Russian banks are under arrest, plus I'm placed on Russia's wanted list."

The Interior Ministry's website listed Soldatov, who could not be reached by phone, as wanted under an unspecified article of the criminal code.<<<

 
GO-NAD!

GO-NAD!

Audioholic Spartan
View attachment 56447

First Lady Olena Zelenska urged the world not to get used to Russia's war against Ukraine


After all, if it happens, the war will never end. The First Lady said this in an interview with the American TV channel ABC, which she gave in Kyiv.
That's my concern - the longer this drags on, the more likely that the west will stop paying attention.
 
SithZedi

SithZedi

Audioholic General
That's my concern - the longer this drags on, the more likely that the west will stop paying attention.
Agree with that. Sadly, it's already seems to have happened. The media headlines and the political establishments priorities in the last month reflect that. It's the age old question, "Cui Bono?". Who benefits from the chaos of the Ukrainian war?

Would like to see a prominent media outlet do a serious analysis on that besides the financial media.
 
haraldo

haraldo

Audioholic Spartan
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⚡A teenager helped the Armed Forces of Ukraine to stop one of its largest columns on the Zhytomyr highway. A drone helped him.

Andrii Pokrasa, 15, managed to spot the lights of a military column advancing on Kyiv from his drone.

He shared information with the Ukrainian military who was able to destroy the column.

"He was the only one who had experience working with drones in this region. He is a real hero of Ukraine," said Yurii Kasianov, Commander of the Intelligence Department of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Source: https://t.me/ukrainenowenglish/10319
 
haraldo

haraldo

Audioholic Spartan
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❕A 13-year-old girl pretended to be dead so that the Russian invaders would not execute her.

At the end of February, Russian troops occupied the village of Katiuzhanka in the Kyiv region. As 13-year-old Dasha and her father and stepmother were driving through the streets, they came under fire from several directions.

Her parents were killed instantly and the car caught fire. The girl jumped out of the car, and hid behind it, but the Russians did not stop firing at her.

Dasha was severely wounded and pretended to be dead so that the Russian soldiers would not kill her. The Russians approached, kicked her to see if she was alive, and moved on.

The girl survived.

Photo Andrii Nebytov.

Source: https://t.me/ukrainenowenglish/10283
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Field Marshall
That's my concern - the longer this drags on, the more likely that the west will stop paying attention.
It seems as if the heroic efforts by the Ukrainians early in the war may have given people the (unfortunately false) impression that Ukraine doesn't really need much assistance.

As far as I can tell, the opposite is true. I hate to be too pessimistic, but the overwhelming numbers of Russian troops and artillery in the east appears to be grinding down the Ukrainian forces.

>>>In some fighting zones in the Donbas, Russian commanders have sent in fresh troops every day to replace those on the front. “One soldier advances two metres, and then another comes to push farther,” Tarnavsky said. In areas where battles have been the most intense, Russia has had, by his count, a five-to-one manpower advantage. Tarnavsky also estimated that Russia has an advantage of up to seven-to-one in artillery batteries and a similarly large stockpile of munitions. As a result, Russian forces can rely on wave after wave of indiscriminate fire from large-calibre artillery, along with missile and air strikes, to soften Ukraine’s defenses, inflicting large casualties before they advance.

I heard multiple stories of Russia’s disproportionate reliance on heavy weaponry. A ten-member Ukrainian reconnaissance unit was spotted during a mission and then fired upon by three Tochka-U ballistic missiles, a munition hefty enough to take out a bridge or an entire command post. Tarnavsky told me of individual Ukrainian artillery systems targeted by Iskander missiles, which cost an estimated five million dollars a shot. “That’s a very expensive pleasure,” he said. “You have to be very rich, or very desperate.”
. . .
The United States has provided more than a hundred M777 howitzers and, on May 31st, the Biden Administration said it would provide Ukraine with HIMARS, a guided long-range rocket system with a range of about forty-five miles. France supplied Caesar self-propelled howitzers; the United Kingdom sent a number of U.S.-made M270 rocket launchers from its arsenal. But even with all these shipments, Ukraine has far less heavy artillery in the field than does Russia.
. . .
One afternoon, I visited a battery from the 55th Artillery Brigade that, for the last three weeks, has employed a U.S.-supplied M777 howitzer. . . . Howitzers can strike targets twenty-five miles away, and are far more accurate than many of Ukraine’s preëxisting, Soviet-era artillery systems. “We used to have to shoot ten times,” Oleg, a sergeant and senior gunner in the unit, told me. “Now we take one shot to correct our fire and on the second hit the target.” . . . I asked Oleg and other soldiers in the unit what else they needed to push back Russian troops: more powerful artillery, they said, and U.S.-made Excalibur munitions, which are guided by G.P.S. for improved accuracy.
. . .
Honcharenko [mayor of a town in Donbas] had just come from a meeting with local military officials, who updated him on the situation at the front. Some positions were holding, others were vulnerable. . . . I asked Honcharenko how long it might take for Russian forces to reach the city. “We shouldn’t expect any miracles,” he told me. “It’s clear that the longer this goes on, the more territory Russia will gain.” His voice was both jovial and grave. “Let me give you my professional opinion as mayor: if we don’t get heavy weapons in two or three weeks, we’re fucked.”<<<

 
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