That's my concern - the longer this drags on, the more likely that the west will stop paying attention.
It seems as if the heroic efforts by the Ukrainians early in the war may have given people the (unfortunately false) impression that Ukraine doesn't really need much assistance.
As far as I can tell, the opposite is true. I hate to be too pessimistic, but the overwhelming numbers of Russian troops and artillery in the east appears to be grinding down the Ukrainian forces.
>>>In some fighting zones in the Donbas, Russian commanders have sent in fresh troops every day to replace those on the front. “One soldier advances two metres, and then another comes to push farther,” Tarnavsky said. In areas where battles have been the most intense, Russia has had, by his count, a five-to-one manpower advantage. Tarnavsky also estimated that Russia has an advantage of up to seven-to-one in artillery batteries and a similarly large stockpile of munitions. As a result, Russian forces can rely on wave after wave of indiscriminate fire from large-calibre artillery, along with missile and air strikes, to soften Ukraine’s defenses, inflicting large casualties before they advance.
I heard multiple stories of Russia’s disproportionate reliance on heavy weaponry. A ten-member Ukrainian reconnaissance unit was spotted during a mission and then fired upon by three Tochka-U ballistic missiles, a munition hefty enough to take out a bridge or an entire command post. Tarnavsky told me of individual Ukrainian artillery systems targeted by Iskander missiles, which cost an estimated five million dollars a shot. “That’s a very expensive pleasure,” he said. “You have to be very rich, or very desperate.”
. . .
The United States has provided more than a hundred M777 howitzers and, on May 31st, the
Biden Administration said it would provide Ukraine with
HIMARS, a guided long-range rocket system with a range of about forty-five miles. France supplied Caesar self-propelled howitzers; the United Kingdom sent a number of U.S.-made M270 rocket launchers from its arsenal. But even with all these shipments, Ukraine has far less heavy artillery in the field than does Russia.
. . .
One afternoon, I visited a battery from the 55th Artillery Brigade that, for the last three weeks, has employed a U.S.-supplied M777 howitzer. . . . Howitzers can strike targets twenty-five miles away, and are far more accurate than many of Ukraine’s preëxisting, Soviet-era artillery systems. “We used to have to shoot ten times,” Oleg, a sergeant and senior gunner in the unit, told me. “Now we take one shot to correct our fire and on the second hit the target.” . . . I asked Oleg and other soldiers in the unit what else they needed to push back Russian troops: more powerful artillery, they said, and U.S.-made Excalibur munitions, which are guided by G.P.S. for improved accuracy.
. . .
Honcharenko [mayor of a town in Donbas] had just come from a meeting with local military officials, who updated him on the situation at the front. Some positions were holding, others were vulnerable. . . . I asked Honcharenko how long it might take for Russian forces to reach the city. “We shouldn’t expect any miracles,” he told me. “It’s clear that the longer this goes on, the more territory Russia will gain.” His voice was both jovial and grave. “Let me give you my professional opinion as mayor: if we don’t get heavy weapons in two or three weeks, we’re fucked.”<<<
The war has become, as one Ukrainian soldier put it, a game of “artillery Ping-Pong.”
www.newyorker.com
