Coronavirus

[Swerd]

@Danzilla31 I was gonna say that, but you must have read my mind .

 

[Swerd]

Do you have any thoughts on Muller's Ratchet vis-a-vis the coronavirus? Muller's Ratchet seems like a comforting notion, but I seem to recall seeing studies that both support and contradict it (I realize you were not alluding to Muller's Ratchet in your post)(unless perhaps I read it wrong?).

Muller's ratchet - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I ran across a paper about a "bottleneck hypothesis" but I have not yet read the paper yet and I'm posting the link merely as an FYI in case you're interested.

>>>If they undergo new mutations at each replication cycle, why are RNA viral genomes so fragile, with most mutations being either strongly deleterious or lethal? Here we provide theoretical and numerical evidence for the hypothesis that genetic fragility is partly an evolutionary response to the multiple population bottlenecks experienced by viral populations at various stages of their life cycles. Modelling within-host viral populations as multi-type branching processes, we show that mutational fragility lowers the rate at which Muller’s ratchet clicks and increases the survival probability through multiple bottlenecks. In the context of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered epidemiological model, we find that the attack rate of fragile viral strains can exceed that of more robust strains, particularly at low infectivities and high mutation rates. Our findings highlight the importance of demographic events such as transmission bottlenecks in shaping the genetic architecture of viral pathogens.<<<

Why are viral genomes so fragile? The bottleneck hypothesis

Author summary Given that most mutations are deleterious, high mutation rates carry a significant evolutionary cost. To reduce this burden, an obvious evolutionary solution would be to reduce the fitness cost of mutations by becoming more robust; this solution is indeed selected in populations...

journals.plos.org

I have to admit that I never heard of Muller's ratchet, at least not that I remember. And I've never read much about theoretic genetics, such as the 'bottleneck hypothesis'. I was always an experimental guy, as are most biochemists and molecular biologists. We're too busy trying to figure out what viruses can do. Despite our 'modern knowledge' we keep getting surprised by them.

I may be missing out on something, but here's my bias about theoretical genetics: Humans spend too much time & effort over-thinking such topics. I'm quite certain that viruses, bacteria, and other micro organisms ignore what they've published. Why invent elaborate genetic explanations if the bugs don't ever read those 'instructions'?

That's my bias. But, at the same time, I'm always glad to learn what someone else, such as you, are reading about. I've never claimed to be always right.

 

[Dude#1279435]

Really good info last couple pages getting up to speed. Thanks guys

Man one thing you guys brought up is China's culpability. It made me think what really could we do?

A country of over a billion they have nukes and they're military is getting stronger and stronger

Heck they are getting stronger and stronger in just about every way you can think education economics science technology. They'd be difficult to really stop now in a few years I don't even think it's possible.

Seriously even if the world found something out do you really want to risk another world war with a nuclear power?

What to do about China and the problems they pose to the world is a whole thread in itself but on the Covid side you guys just really got me thinking

I mean what could we really do sooner or later they're going after Taiwan and there's nothing we could do to stop them right now.

What makes us think we could stop them on an even larger scale conflict

China replaced Middle East terrorism a few years back as America's greatest international threat according to the CIA.

 

[Mr._Clark]

China replaced Middle East terrorism a few years back as America's greatest international threat according to the CIA.

China is bad news, brother dude:

>>>In Wednesday’s hearing—the first on global threats in two years — Beijing’s expansionism topped the list of threats that intelligence officials gave the Senate Intelligence Committee. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines called China an “unparalleled priority” for the intelligence community. FBI Director Christopher Wray noted that his agency opens a new investigation that links back to the Chinese government every 10 hours.<<<

China Eclipses Terrorist Groups as Top U.S. Security Threat, Intelligence Chiefs Say

The national security threats that top intelligence officials laid out for lawmakers on Wednesday were dominated by China’s efforts to expand its global influence and "cascading crises" exacerbated by the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

time.com

 

[mtrycrafts]

I have to admit that I never heard of Muller's ratchet, at least not that I remember. And I've never read much about theoretic genetics, such as the 'bottleneck hypothesis'. I was always an experimental guy, as are most biochemists and molecular biologists. We're too busy trying to figure out what viruses can do. Despite our 'modern knowledge' we keep getting surprised by them.

I may be missing out on something, but here's my bias about theoretical genetics: Humans spend too much time & effort over-thinking such topics. I'm quite certain that viruses, bacteria, and other micro organisms ignore what they've published. Why invent elaborate genetic explanations if the bugs don't ever read those 'instructions'?

That's my bias. But, at the same time, I'm always glad to learn what someone else, such as you, are reading about. I've never claimed to be always right.

LOL

 

[Dude#1279435]

China is bad news, brother dude:

>>>In Wednesday’s hearing—the first on global threats in two years — Beijing’s expansionism topped the list of threats that intelligence officials gave the Senate Intelligence Committee. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines called China an “unparalleled priority” for the intelligence community. FBI Director Christopher Wray noted that his agency opens a new investigation that links back to the Chinese government every 10 hours.<<<

China Eclipses Terrorist Groups as Top U.S. Security Threat, Intelligence Chiefs Say

The national security threats that top intelligence officials laid out for lawmakers on Wednesday were dominated by China’s efforts to expand its global influence and "cascading crises" exacerbated by the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

time.com

Wednesday’s hearing was the first public global threats assessment since January 2019, when intelligence chiefs’ testimony before Congress provoked an angry outburst from then-President Donald Trump. He slammed them on Twitter as “passive” and “naive” and wrote that “perhaps Intelligence should go back to school” after they seemed to contradict him on several foreign policy issues. Not wanting to be seen as publicly disagreeing with the commander-in-chief on top priorities like Iran, North Korea and Russia, intelligence leaders did not release a global threats assessment or hold an open hearing last year.

Unfucking believable!

Regardin the rest of the article, it reminds me of a 9-11 docu I was watching and highlighting Bin Laden's biggest accomplishment wasn't 9-11 but all these little terrorist cells he had created around the globe.

It also makes me wonder how the Middle East situation would have played out had we not gotten Saddam.....

Also, I don't really understand how China's tampering with cybersecurity and the other more subtle avenues effects us as well as the globe?

Did Biden still go ahead with withdrawal?

 

[mtrycrafts]

Yes, I know this is about Covid but wife's asset manager said Chinise government is buying or turning all private businesses into a government business, for what is good for China, not for the owners anymore. USSR here we come in China.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Perhaps a Moderna booster would help if one has already received the Pfizer vaccine?

Fauci just threw some cold water on this idea:

>>>While appearing on CBS' Face the Nation on August 15, Fauci was asked about a recent study that found the Moderna vaccine to be more effective against the surging Delta strain. When asked by host Nancy Cordes whether or not this meant anyone who originally got a Pfizer vaccine should seek out a Moderna booster shot when they become available, Fauci immediately pushed back.

"That study, first of all, is a preprint study, [and] it hasn't been fully peer-reviewed," he said. "I don't doubt what they're seeing, but there are a lot of confounding variables in there about when one was started, the relative amount of people in that cohort, that's Delta versus Alpha. We already implemented boosters for the immune-compromised. It's clear we want to make sure we get people, if possible, to get the boost from the original vaccine that they had." . . .
"Based on the data that we have so far, it is a combination of [two] factors," the study's lead author, Venky Soundararajan, PhD, told Axios last week. "The Moderna vaccine is likely—very likely—more effective than the Pfizer vaccine in areas where Delta is the dominant strain, and the Pfizer vaccine appears to have a lower durability of effectiveness."

But during the interview, Fauci also explained that there were some other differences between the vaccines that might explain the variation in levels of protection against the Delta variant. "Remember, the original dose of the Moderna is about three times what the dose of the Pfizer is," he said. "So you may have a difference in durability, but in general, the vaccines that have been approved for emergency use authorization and hopefully will be approved for a full authorization…are all really highly effective in preventing severe disease."<<<

Dr. Fauci Warns Not to Do This If You Got Pfizer

During a recent interview, Dr. Fauci, warned people who got the Pfizer vaccine to not seek out a Moderna booster shot.

bestlifeonline.com

 

[highfigh]

Really good info last couple pages getting up to speed. Thanks guys

Man one thing you guys brought up is China's culpability. It made me think what really could we do?

A country of over a billion they have nukes and they're military is getting stronger and stronger

Heck they are getting stronger and stronger in just about every way you can think education economics science technology. They'd be difficult to really stop now in a few years I don't even think it's possible.

Seriously even if the world found something out do you really want to risk another world war with a nuclear power?

What to do about China and the problems they pose to the world is a whole thread in itself but on the Covid side you guys just really got me thinking

I mean what could we really do sooner or later they're going after Taiwan and there's nothing we could do to stop them right now.

What makes us think we could stop them on an even larger scale conflict

OK, so they have a billion people- what would they do, walk across the oceans? They have nukes, but not all Chinese people have them, just the military, and the first thing we do in a war is take out the communications systems. That means, the internet goes dark for civilians. More satellites are operated by the US, so it would make a big difference when they're shut down. Then, think about the fact that the US has been fighting in the Middle East constantly for 20 years- not only do we have a strong active force, the number of people released from their duty who could return is large. We have more aircraft carriers, aircraft and other capabilities than any other country- I seriously doubt that a ground war is likely.

 

[highfigh]

Yes, I know this is about Covid but wife's asset manager said Chinise government is buying or turning all private businesses into a government business, for what is good for China, not for the owners anymore. USSR here we come in China.

And that's what communist governments do- nationalize everything. That's not new in China- they take over successful companies because they have shown that they know how to run efficiently and successfully. The owners may not be compensated, but the CCP ends up with a lot of companies that provide revenue and they think this makes them "better" as a government, at running businesses.

 

[cpp]

ON the Fla front < in today's news " Over 5,000 students and hundreds of employees in a single Florida school district have tested positive for Covid-19 or may have been exposed to the coronavirus, school officials said Monday"https://www.wane.com/community/health/coronavirus/over-5000-students-in-one-florida-district-are-in-isolation-or-quarantine-for-covid-19/

 

[Mikado463]

or 'may' have been exposed .......... somewhat of a meaningless statement that the press just loves.

 

[highfigh]

or 'may' have been exposed .......... somewhat of a meaningless statement that the press just loves.

US media- "OH, MY GOD! MY HAIR IS ON FIRE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!".

 

[Mr._Clark]

or 'may' have been exposed .......... somewhat of a meaningless statement that the press just loves.

The article refers to students "in quarantine for a possible exposure . . . quarantine refers to those who have had close contact with a positive case."

>>>Over 5,000 students in one Florida district are in isolation or quarantine for COVID-19

TAMPA (WFLA) – More than 5,000 students in one Florida county either tested positive for COVID-19 or are currently in quarantine for a possible exposure, school officials say. The Hillsborough County School Board will hold an emergency meeting on Wednesday, from 1-3:30 p.m. due to rising COVID-19 cases across the county. As of 7 a.m., Monday, 5,599 students and 316 employees in Hillsborough County Public Schools are in isolation or quarantine. Isolation refers to individuals who have tested positive for COVID-19 while quarantine refers to those who have had close contact with a positive case.<<<


Here's the CDC definition of close contact:

>>>For COVID-19, a close contact is anyone who was within 6 feet of an infected person for a total of 15 minutes or more over a 24-hour period (for example, three individual 5-minute exposures for a total of 15 minutes). An infected person can spread COVID-19 starting from 2 days before they have any symptoms (or, if they are asymptomatic, 2 days before their specimen that tested positive was collected), until they meet the criteria for discontinuing home isolation.<<<

COVID-19 and Your Health

Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.

www.cdc.gov

.

 

[Alex2507]

The previous first lady's claim to fame was stripping and soft porn.

Suddenly I have a new search topic.

Delta in Israel:

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

 

[TLS Guy]

Fauci just threw some cold water on this idea:

>>>While appearing on CBS' Face the Nation on August 15, Fauci was asked about a recent study that found the Moderna vaccine to be more effective against the surging Delta strain. When asked by host Nancy Cordes whether or not this meant anyone who originally got a Pfizer vaccine should seek out a Moderna booster shot when they become available, Fauci immediately pushed back.

"That study, first of all, is a preprint study, [and] it hasn't been fully peer-reviewed," he said. "I don't doubt what they're seeing, but there are a lot of confounding variables in there about when one was started, the relative amount of people in that cohort, that's Delta versus Alpha. We already implemented boosters for the immune-compromised. It's clear we want to make sure we get people, if possible, to get the boost from the original vaccine that they had." . . .
"Based on the data that we have so far, it is a combination of [two] factors," the study's lead author, Venky Soundararajan, PhD, told Axios last week. "The Moderna vaccine is likely—very likely—more effective than the Pfizer vaccine in areas where Delta is the dominant strain, and the Pfizer vaccine appears to have a lower durability of effectiveness."

But during the interview, Fauci also explained that there were some other differences between the vaccines that might explain the variation in levels of protection against the Delta variant. "Remember, the original dose of the Moderna is about three times what the dose of the Pfizer is," he said. "So you may have a difference in durability, but in general, the vaccines that have been approved for emergency use authorization and hopefully will be approved for a full authorization…are all really highly effective in preventing severe disease."<<<

Dr. Fauci Warns Not to Do This If You Got Pfizer

During a recent interview, Dr. Fauci, warned people who got the Pfizer vaccine to not seek out a Moderna booster shot.

bestlifeonline.com

Real world data from Israel is showing real world data that the Pfizer vaccine immunity does start to wane at the five to six month point. Data from the UK seems to confirm that, but it is early. Data form the UK is now suggesting the immunity from the mDNA vaccine is lasting longer, with less vaccine escape over time.

Dame Sarah Gilbert is a huge proponent of trialing mixing vaccines. Small studies have been done in the UK and Spain of mixing the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines either one first or second. Antibody levels have been 37 times higher with that regime rather than using the same vaccine.

However those are antibody studies and not real time studies from vaccine escape over time.

If we have to jab people at frequencies greater then 12 month intervals, that will be a huge problem, especially as you have to vaccinate the world at scale. So trials to find improved administration regimes are crucial. As professor Sir Andrew Pollard pointed out to the cross Parliamentary group of MPs, "You can't endlessly keep jabbing people."

It really is disconcerting that the final goal post seems to moving further and further into the future over time. We are still a long way from our lives pre Covid-19.

 

[GO-NAD!]

Yes, I know this is about Covid but wife's asset manager said Chinise government is buying or turning all private businesses into a government business, for what is good for China, not for the owners anymore. USSR here we come in China.

That could work out for the better for us. If they nationalize all private enterprise, it's just a matter of time before they run businesses into the ground and collapse their economy.

 

[GO-NAD!]

Meanwhile, in San Diego...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1427785554805075971

 

[Swerd]

Today I read that Florida and Texas accounted for 40% of all the Covid-19 hospitalizations occurring last week. The population of those two states is 15% of the total USA population.

And, we all noticed that Gov. Abbot of Texas has tested positive for Covid-19.

• He has been fully vaccinated.
• He has been regularly tested for Covid-19, every day.
• Now that he has Covid-19, he is receiving the Regeneron antibody cocktail by IV infusion (continuous or daily?).
• This is the same politician who orders his state to refuse wearing masks, resist required vaccinations, and has asked (ordered) Texas hospitals to stop performing procedures for non-emergency patients as long as there are unprecedented numbers of Covid-19 hospitalizations.

What in god's name is he thinking? His Hypocrisy, with a capital H, makes him stand above the rest of our nation's politicians.

We need a 'National Dope Slap Day' in the US. Those deserving public humiliation would be pilloried on a public square, and exposed to the angry public. Responses, such as dope-slaps to the face or throwing rotten tomatoes (one per customer) would be permitted, but no violence beyond that. Greg Abbot of Texas would be my nomination for the first to get a full day's worth of dope-slaps. (We're not complete savages, he could also get his IV infusion of antibody medication while pilloried.)

 

[panteragstk]

Today I read that Florida and Texas accounted for 40% of all the Covid-19 hospitalizations occurring last week. The population of those two states is 15% of the total USA population.

And, we all noticed that Gov. Abbot of Texas has tested positive for Covid-19.

• He has been fully vaccinated.
• He has been regularly tested for Covid-19, every day.
• Now that he has Covid-19, he is receiving the Regeneron antibody cocktail by IV infusion (continuous or daily?).
• This is the same politician who orders his state to refuse wearing masks, resist required vaccinations, and has asked (ordered) Texas hospitals to stop performing procedures for non-emergency patients as long as there are unprecedented numbers of Covid-19 hospitalizations.

What in god's name is he thinking? His Hypocrisy, with a capital H, makes him stand above the rest of our nation's politicians.

We need a 'National Dope Slap Day' in the US. Those deserving public humiliation would be pilloried on a public square, and exposed to the angry public. Responses, such as dope-slaps to the face or throwing rotten tomatoes (one per customer) would be permitted, but no violence beyond that. Greg Abbot of Texas would be my nomination for the first to get a full day's worth of dope-slaps. (We're not complete savages, he could also get his IV infusion of antibody medication while pilloried.)

Try living less than 40 miles from him...the amount of stupid happening is astonishing...even for here