Gas (Pricing) Is Getting Flatulent

[stratman]

I believe Ford and GM's hybrid tech is licensed from Toyota. A couple of years back GM, Chrysler and BMW had begun a co-operative venture on the next generation hybrid which included CVT tranny's, redesigned super-efficient electric motors, but I don't know what became of it, BMW now has those silly "vapor-ware" commercials about it's 7 series hydrogen fuel cell car and how it's ready for the future, what a crock of crap.

 

[Rickster71]

It's like deja-vu, all over again

Some of the same things did happen, starting in 1973.
For some, old enough to remember, " It's like deja-vu, all over again. "
Then the price of oil was high, and we were told the world was running out of oil, and that was why it's price was so high.

Photovoltaics is an expensive technology , and is economically feasible when the price of oil is high, like the present. The same can be said for Ethanol.

See the link below, to a chart of oil prices from 1947 to early 2007.
http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

Back then the conversation was, as it is now on this thread.
People got wood burning stoves. Rode their bikes.
The V-8 Ford Mustang was dropped, for the Mustang-II. The biggest engine that was available for it was a V-6.
History is repeating it self.

Then, as your can see in the chart, oil prices dropped, and everyone went back to their old habits.

 

[stratman]

Far from being a tree hugger or an alarmist of any kind I'm tending to disagree on this one, there are major differences between '73 and today, for instance India and China are hooked on oil on a level that wasn't present in '73. As China and India modernize, become more affluent, put more cars on the road, oil usage will spike sharply as it has been doing for the past few years, my dismay at the whole affair is that politically speaking we're being held hostage to foreign powers, not just OPEC. The automobile industry in this country keeps putting out inefficient cars and trucks with no regard, they create the need and fill the gaps, market trucks to moms to pick up their kids, dress up work trucks so they can be mass-marketed, meanwhile cafe standards drop, engineering suffers and you're left with the situation we're in. People just don't realize we might not have an auto industry in America in next 10-15 years.

 

[Rickster71]

Far from being a tree hugger or an alarmist of any kind I'm tending to disagree on this one, there are major differences between '73 and today, for instance India and China are hooked on oil on a level that wasn't present in '73. As China and India modernize, become more affluent, put more cars on the road, oil usage will spike sharply as it has been doing for the past few years, my dismay at the whole affair is that politically speaking we're being held hostage to foreign powers, not just OPEC. The automobile industry in this country keeps putting out inefficient cars and trucks with no regard, they create the need and fill the gaps, market trucks to moms to pick up their kids, dress up work trucks so they can be mass-marketed, meanwhile cafe standards drop, engineering suffers and you're left with the situation we're in. People just don't realize we might not have an auto industry in America in next 10-15 years.

I couldn't agree with you more!
I did say "Some of the same things did happen in 1973" note-"some"
I was speaking more to the conservation side of things. How they paralleled 30 years ago. Even the talk of, who's to blame, etc.

I thought about adding China, just figured I'd be too wordy.
The link to the graph in my earlier post, shows spikes and valleys that correspond with many political issues, not so much for usage.
Though it does also show " Asian Growth" as reason for some spike.
I don't think we disagree at all. Both our posts should be combined.

 

[mtrycrafts]

...my dismay at the whole affair is that politically speaking we're being held hostage to foreign powers, not just OPEC. The automobile industry in this country keeps putting out inefficient cars and trucks with no regard, they create the need and fill the gaps, market trucks to moms to pick up their kids, dress up work trucks so they can be mass-marketed, meanwhile cafe standards drop, engineering suffers and you're left with the situation we're in.

And how. Now one of the Detroit makers is outsourcing their R&D to China? How nice is that?
China and India are rapidly becoming a major controlling power and guess who is paying for it? We are.
Also, thanks for the political acceptance of outsourcing en mass. I am worried for the kids with higher education and for all of them.

 

[stratman]

Tonight, I bring back this sometime acerbic "fuel prices thread." Reading the whole magila (from OP #1) it makes me laugh when we were speculating gas at $3.50 by December '07, well here we are, April '08, gas here in Miami is hovering around $3.61 at a HESS near my home to $3.89 at a Chevron near Brickell/Downtown. I know places in the beach that have gas at $4.10+, now all these prices are for regular, supreme I've seen at $4.25 and higher if you go to parts of town that are frequented by tourists. One effect I've noticed here in the tropics, fuel prices are slowing drivers down, I see more people driving with their windows down, I'm beginning to see less dualys driving around town, I heard a radio commercial today, "F150s starting at $11,500.00, with guaranteed financing," Smart cars are becoming more visible, so are Priuses, so who knows if we don't spin into a heavy recession fuel prices will keep the rest of the year in a see-saw pattern steadily creeping up to $5.00 per gallon. There will come a time when the average person will not be able to cope with gas, diesel for truckers will have to be regulated or the cost of food and shipping will skyrocket. I've noticed people have gone from an alarmed state to numbness. So far it doesn't look rosy:

Thursday, April 24, 2008: NYMEX West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil for June delivery closed down $2.24 at $116.06 per barrel.


How much are you guys paying now?

 

[Davemcc]

Desite the increased price of fuel, demand has remained relatively inelastic indicating that there is still room for price increases in the future. One interesting thing to note is that domestic crude supply is somewhat divorced from gasoline pricing. As I understand it, crude supply in the U.S. has been growing steadily, even as the price continues to rise. While that might seem anti-intuitive, crude price is being driven by international forces, primarily demand from China and India. Ironically, even as the domestic crude glut increases, gasoline prices are rising due to inabilty to refine gasoline.

One thing to note is that there is no will to increase refining capacity for the simple reason that the resulting increase in supply would drive down the price. In essence, why would any corporation spend perhaps hundreds of millions of dollars building new refining capacity with the net effect of driving down the price of their product? By doing nothing, the price of the product increases and the corporations make more profit.

 

[mouettus]

I'm converting from liters to gallons here but our gaz prices in Ottawa right now is 1.24$ per liter which is 4.69$ per gallon. Then say the last 10¢ increace was due to poor american economics. Any reason is good for them to make the liter go higher and higher. Dollar is too low, dollar is too high; either way we're doomed!

What do you think about your prices now?

I managed to leave my bike home 2 days and a half this week. I did my shopping with a back pack and my a$$ is getting really firm lol. Gf likes it.

I'll gaz after work and it will be 7/8th of a tank in 2 weeks. I drive a corolla. Pretty economic car but still the best alternative for saving money is not to drive your car at all.

 

[stratman]

Desite the increased price of fuel, demand has remained relatively inelastic indicating that there is still room for price increases in the future. One interesting thing to note is that domestic crude supply is somewhat divorced from gasoline pricing. As I understand it, crude supply in the U.S. has been growing steadily, even as the price continues to rise. While that might seem anti-intuitive, crude price is being driven by international forces, primarily demand from China and India. Ironically, even as the domestic crude glut increases, gasoline prices are rising due to inabilty to refine gasoline.

One thing to note is that there is no will to increase refining capacity for the simple reason that the resulting increase in supply would drive down the price. In essence, why would any corporation spend perhaps hundreds of millions of dollars building new refining capacity with the net effect of driving down the price of their product? By doing nothing, the price of the product increases and the corporations make more profit.

Spot on Dave, and they turn to the "useful-idiots" tree huggers as a means to justify not building refining capacity.

 

[stratman]

I'm converting from liters to gallons here but our gaz prices in Ottawa right now is 1.24$ per liter which is 4.69$ per gallon. Then say the last 10¢ increace was due to poor american economics. Any reason is good for them to make the liter go higher and higher. Dollar is too low, dollar is too high; either way we're doomed!

What do you think about your prices now?

I managed to leave my bike home 2 days and a half this week. I did my shopping with a back pack and my a$$ is getting really firm lol. Gf likes it.

I'll gaz after work and it will be 7/8th of a tank in 2 weeks. I drive a corolla. Pretty economic car but still the best alternative for saving money is not to drive your car at all.

Our prices compared to the rest of the world are still low, BUT (an Oprah sized But) the US for years has been the largest consumer, if you don't keep the consumers happy, they cut back spending, everyone suffers. China is having a tough time now that Americans are slowly, but surely cutting back on excessive spending, Detroit is paying dearly for years of assbackwards engineering and marketing, my fear is that when gas hits the psychological break point, we will surely slide into a heavy recession/depression.

 

[mouettus]

Funny you mentioned the day that gaz prices will be that high that the normal regular everyday guy will barely be able to fit a tank of gaz in its budget; I can see it in my lifetime.

 

[stratman]

Gas at $5.00 per gallon, in my opinion will be devastating for any working or middle class person. With those on the upper tier of the economy it's another yawn, for those in the upper, mid, and low mid classes it'll be catastrophic, those in the lowest brackets, with no easy access to mass transit will be forced into unemployment without transportation.

 

[mouettus]

Gas at $5.00 per gallon, in my opinion will be devastating for any working or middle class person. With those on the upper tier of the economy it's another yawn, for those in the upper, mid, and low mid classes it'll be catastrophic, those in the lowest brackets, with no easy access to mass transit will be forced into unemployment without transportation.

I'm not sure that 5$ a gallon is that bad. I just told you that we were at 4.69$ here. I think it has to do more with the psychological barrier than the budget.

 

[allargon]

For middle class people, it cuts back discretionary spending. For upper middle class and rich people--whatever. For lower middle class (read: working poor), it's a complete nightmare. They don't have a lot money to spend. Most of them buy older, used cars that tend to have poor fuel economy. They are sensitive to price increases on food, utilities, housing, gasoline, etc. They have noticed the increases in the price of food and gasoline.

One of them was the exterminator treating my house. I could understand his pain when he ranted. However, I know he spends money on cigarettes, too. I wanted to tell him he could save $1k/yr by giving those up, but I kept my mouth shut.

 

[MUDSHARK]

Gas at $5.00 per gallon, in my opinion will be devastating for any working or middle class person. With those on the upper tier of the economy it's another yawn, for those in the upper, mid, and low mid classes it'll be catastrophic, those in the lowest brackets, with no easy access to mass transit will be forced into unemployment without transportation.

So the prices are of no personal concern to you then and at best a yawn.

Even the current prices are a great hardship for the majority and without home equity to use as an ATM the middle class will now be compelled to reduce non-essential spending even further.The inflation rates the government is publishing are far short of the increases facing the populace. Eight percent is likely a close estimate.

When do you sleep, Strat? 1:38 A.M. and posting? Did you have an alarming nightmare?

 

[Tomorrow]

The July increases I think were related to refinery fires and shutdowns and other reasons for low availability vs. demand. I have a hunch this time it's much more a systemic U.S. economic and political problem. We have several world leaders hacking something into press microphones about WWIII! (The two principles, though, being Bush and that Iranian guy...Mahmoud Imanutjob.) Iran has the world's 4th largest oil reserves. Other reasons....Saudi Arabia is taking a financial beating with their huge U.S. Treasury Bond holdings and are set to cut us off, the free-falling U.S. dollar (the U.S. is printing money like it's a big game of Monopoly), Venezuela problems, China's emerging oil demands, etc.

I believe we will see $5 per gallon before the end of next year.

Just call me Nostradamus.

Unfortunately, it was too easy a call. The signs are all blinking in neon. I think you're right, S-man, depression is just around the corner. Those of us that have lived long enough can see history repeating itself all over the place. The world's economy certainly runs off of political and environmental conditions (peace, war, famine, etc.), but the prime engine is the human psyche and expectations. Perception is everything. If enough people believe their economic condition is recessed or depressed, it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The economy will be as we see it to be. (The power of the press is obvious here. But people will just stop spending and businesses will start cutbacks and more people will stop spending, and on...it's how it begins.) As far as I can see, the planet is headed willy-nilly toward a full-blown depression ala 1929. We've seen all the signs, including failed banks, currency devaluation, inflation, insufficient world food supplies, and so forth.

A year and a half ago, I advised my monied friends to buy gold. Those that did are mighty happy. Remember this...if a depression hits, in spite of the economic safeguards built into our economy by the U.S. Gov't. after 1932, people will spend their "excess" cash on means of escape from their perceived plight. They'll buy alcohol (or drugs) in greater degree, as well as other forms of entertainment to take their minds away from the gloom and fears. (Comic books and movies made their hayday during the Great Depression.) This time around, invest in what made huge profits back then...booze.

One last thing about oil. There has been zero press coverage (one wonders why!) on a huge, new oil reserve found right here in the good ol' USA. It's called the Bakken Oil Formation, primarily in (environmentally non-sensitive) North Dakota. It may not be as large as originally conceived, but it certainly could provide a huge respite from imported reliance. http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news2.13s.html The only problem...as S-man or Rickster (??) also pointed out, there are not enough refineries around. No new ones have been built for >20 years. Oil is seen as a dying fuel material. No one wants to invest those billions of bucks in something that will be obsolete in 20 years.

 

[EJ1]

Freakin' $50 to fill up the WRX.

"...She needs premium, dude! PREMIUMMMMM! ...DUUUUUDE!!" - Snake

 

[MUDSHARK]

I will not comment on most of Tomorrow's rant but having a portion of one's equities in gold funds, is in fact, a prudent move. WE have included 3-4 percent in precious metals for the growth and aggressive allocations in the 401K plan for those that desire a preset allocation in lieu of making their own allocation of mutual funds.

 

[stratman]

So the prices are of no personal concern to you then and at best a yawn.

Even the current prices are a great hardship for the majority and without home equity to use as an ATM the middle class will now be compelled to reduce non-essential spending even further.The inflation rates the government is publishing are far short of the increases facing the populace. Eight percent is likely a close estimate.

When do you sleep, Strat? 1:38 A.M. and posting? Did you have an alarming nightmare?

I wish the gas situation was a yawn for me! Ever since I traded my foot powered model for a gas, it's been a nightmare of pre-historic proportions!
I had been over at my brother in law's watching movies so I decided to check out the site. Not my usual time.

 

[mouettus]

I had been over at my brother in law's watching movies so I decided to check out the site. Not my usual time.

Yeah yeahhh... You just wanted to boost your posts count! lol

If audioholics was a drug, you'd be in the sixties!!