Since I last posted the situation is worsening in most parts of the US fast.
When I last posted a couple of days ago the positivity rate in Dakota county where I live was 2.5% indicating relatively low community prevalence and spread. Today it 6.8% and rising fast, pretty much all Delta Variant.
So the entire metro is now asked to mask up in indoor settings and in 35 Minnesota counties in total.
Looking at the and UK data, the highest rate of infection is peaking at about 24 years of age, indicating this is an illness, mainly of the young and not the old.
Those in the ICU and hospitals are now predominantly below 50 years of age, with many between 40 and 50.
Now the number of people infected from one individual, has been found to be much higher than thought. The alpha variant, one would infect three, for the Delta variant one infected individual will infect nine. So it is easy to understand why there is just a rapid rise in cases. The case fatality rate is dropping. This is because the seriously ill population is much younger and there are fully vaccinated break through cases in the mix, which have a very low mortality and only make up 0.5% of the deaths, current data would suggest. However patients are getting infected with much higher viral loads, which is not good.
The Provincetown outbreak, has provided really important data, and has been obtained to large degree, because of citizen science, from outstanding community action and data collection.
In 833 cases 74% were fully vaccinated. Virus shedding surprisingly was as high in the vaccinated as the unvaccinated. That is very unfortunate as far as limiting spread.
The good news is that all the serious cases were in the unvaccinated. 197 were admitted to hospital, 40 are in ICU and 21 have required mechanical ventilation.
So far none have died, as far as I can tell, but there may well be some deaths in the ventilated patients over the next couple of weeks.
Now I should make one point at this time. What medical personnel call a mild case and the public call a mild case are significantly different. What medical personnel call mild, members of the public call very nasty. So it is not something you should go looking for. However it will probably be hard to escape, given that it is as infectious as chicken pox, where you only have to walk past an infected person to catch it.
Israel has data, that breakthrough cases seem to be commoner at 5 months past full vaccination. If this holds up, that is more bad news. In any event Israel are now giving boosters to people over 60 more than 5 months past full vaccination.
All the above makes it really imperative that everyone gets vaccinated. We do need to get 90% full vaccination over the next six weeks.
Everybody, yes, everybody needs to confront those not vaccinated. It is time for businesses to deny access to the unvaccinated. It is totally irresponsible now, not to be vaccinated.
Obviously in view of current data, change in behaviour is now called for.
Masks, need to warn by ALL in indoor settings out of your home. I would avoid bars, concerts cinemas, and churches, etc until cases drop significantly and certainly while cases are exploding at the current rate. I think we will go back to curbside shopping.
I watched the Minnesota Orchestra concert this evening, the second after the audience was allowed back in. I noted more empty than occupied seats, indicating people must be concerned. So economic impact still continues.
Things are certainly much more hopeful than they were are year ago, but we certainly are having an unfortunate set back. A lot of this, if not most of it, would have been avoided if vaccinations had not stalled.