I have not posted for a while, as there has been so much uncertainty. Now the fog is starting to clear. Between predicting the effects of the vaccine roll out and the variants, especially the Delta Variant, made reliable predictions next to impossible, with the best minds proving fallible.
This forum has had over 1/4 million individuals look at this thread at some time. I find this quite incredible for a forum for audio and home HT!. The point I am trying to make is that it makes it all the more imperative to try and provide accurate information. This has been more difficult of late, for a variety of reasons. I think it is safe to assume that many in that number have looked to this forum to obtain trusted information. In any event I hope that is the case.
First the Delta variant. The original form of the virus, had an R factor of around 1.4. A number over 1 means the epidemic will grow. Other variants had had R in the same range. The SA, or Beta variant, does seem to have a degree of vaccine escape.
The Indian Delta variant is the one currently of most concern. R is estimated at 4 to 5 most likely, and just might be as high as seven.
In addition this variant is one we know for sure, causes more serious disease, infects a younger population and even more children than previous strains.
The only benefit is that it is so transmissible that it outpaced the Beta variant, except in France for some reason that is not at all clear, although Delta is gaining ground.
The reason for the higher virulence, seems to be that it causes cell fusion and more rapid dissemination of the virus and increased rate of cellular death.
In the US we have very uneven vaccine uptake. Because the vaccines only have slightly reduced efficacy to this strain it is causing a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Florida is badly infected, where they have an idiot for a governor. Other areas of the South seem to have populations prepared to die for their political beliefs, which I find unfathomable. I note they are getting a really good scare now, as vaccines are starting to tick up again. Yes, it is time to balme the unvaccinated. France is going to crackdown on antivaxers, of which they have a large number. France is going to make life truly miserable for the unvaccinated. President Macron told the antivaxers today, "it is time for you to stay home and not us."
Minnesota released the state of the pandemic here. The Metro has a high vaccination rate, it is highly variable in out state Minnesota, I feel largely driven by political ideology. The percentage fully vaccinated is 53.5% which is not good enough.
There have been 3,900 breakthrough cases from 3 million vaccinations, which is a breakthrough rate of 0.1%. However we are seeing an exponential rise in cases with over 400 a day now. Hospitalizations and deaths are almost exclusively in the unvaccinated.
So it really is now time, and appropriate, to make life increasingly miserable for the unvaccinated. Employers using the threat of dismissal is an appropriate and large stick, and being increasingly applied.
The UK started mass vaccination about a month ahead of most. In addition they have had a largely successful vaccine roll out. 88% of the population have had at least one dose and 70.5 two doses. Before the Delta variant, modelling predicted the infections would decline rapidly at that 70% number, but with the Delta variant modelling predicted that 90% would be required.
The UK pretty much unlocked on July 19. However the NHS have an app on peoples cell phones when they are in contact with a case. This has resulted in what has become known as the 'Pingdemic." This has resulted in significant chaos and labor shortages with so many in isolation. Some critical workers are now exempt, and require daily testing. However the angst over this is high, with increasing number deleting the app.
Well until six day ago cases were rising exponentially with the sharpest spike rise yet seen. Then six days ago cases started to fall just as fast, which was totally unexpected and is defying the modellers. The reasons for this are not clear. For certain the vaccine program gets credit. However the number of people pinged and isolating may be a factor as well as the app deletion, causing missed cases, and a false fall in cases.
However there is increasing optimism that the UK is approaching, or has reached herd immunity from vaccines and recovered cases. There are early studies that show 90% of the population may now be immune.
In any event the UK is the most likely to be the one to tell us, the point at which vaccinations alone, result in declining case numbers, as the only intervention. This is a number we really need to know.
Finally the booster issue. The UK program is now seven months out. There is now evidence that immunity wanes in the immune compromised and those over 65 at six months post vaccination. The older the age, the greater the fall in immunity. So it looks that more likely than not, boosters will be required shortly, for the immune compromised and those over 65 years of age, and for all at some stage. In addition the hope is that the vaccines can be tweaked to increase immunity to the known variants.
The biggest risk to the success of the vaccine rollout, which has been truly spectacular, is a variant with vaccine escape.
About 10 days ago there was an article in JAMA detailing avenues of approach to a universal SARS vaccine targeting the nucleus of the virus rather than spike antigens. One such vaccine in the US has shown good effectiveness in animal studies, and phase 1 human trials have started.
This pandemic has been absolutely awful on many levels, taking lives and livelihoods throughout the world. So now the purse strings are wide open to this research.
Clearly pandemic preparedness has to move to the top of the agenda, along with climate change, which unfortunately may well be approaching the tipping point sooner than predicted. Unfortunately I fear controlling the latter, will be a much tougher nut to crack than the pandemic.
