Coronavirus

[Ponzio]

I went to the grocery store this morning, hardly anyone there, no long lines, plenty of goods on the shelves.

The exact opposite here in southeastern Pennsylvania in my locale and cases are on the rise per the Montgomery County health commissioner.
https://patch.com/pennsylvania/plymouthwhitemarsh/s/h9tew/pa-reports-highest-number-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-6-months?utm_source=alert-breakingnews&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alert

Compared to where we were at the end of March, it has gotten way worse again.

And I believe him from what I've seen when I go out and from talking to friends & family. I get it, people have cabin fever, but there's no doubt that the 2nd wave that Dr. Fauci & the CDC predicted back then, that a second wave is coming in the fall, is coming to fruition.

 

[mtrycrafts]

... I get it, people have cabin fever, but there's no doubt that the 2nd wave that Dr. Fauci & the CDC predicted back then, that a second wave is coming in the fall, is coming to fruition.

And, in some places, if you look at the graphs, this is their 3rd wave.

 

[Ponzio]

 

[highfigh]

I'm trying to see how Gov Cuomo is doing a great job with this, as he's so fond of saying. With over 33K deaths, Texas has slightly more than half and California has slightly less than half, yet it's all someone else's fault. The WI governor is using scare tactics and pointing fingers, yet we have 1465 deaths in a state with almost 6 million people, roughly 1.5 million of whom live in the Milwaukee Metro area. In the city, the population is fairly dense, especially in the lower income part and that's where COVID has hit hardest- the city has more than half of the COVID deaths, but just under 1/4 of the state population.

That said, I'm a bit surprised by the total in WI- this state has an extremely high percentage of morbidly obese people with additional health problems and I had expected it to be higher, since I see so many who don't wear the mask properly, if at all.

 

[Mr._Clark]

This is a bit light on substance, but it's still somewhat interesting:

>>>LONDON (Reuters) - British spies are trying to defend COVID-19 vaccine work against hostile powers that seek to either steal or sabotage research data in the race for the global prize of a jab that could provide immunity, the head of MI5 said on Wednesday.<<<

Britain's spies defending COVID-19 vaccine work, MI5 chief says

British spies are trying to defend COVID-19 vaccine work against hostile powers that seek to either steal or sabotage research data in the race for the global prize of a jab that could provide immunity, the head of MI5 said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Ponzio]

 

[highfigh]

Looks like many places in Europe are seeing more cases, but not more deaths. Maybe it's tired of infecting humans and has lost the will to live.

 

[VMPS-TIII]

The data I am seeing shows Italy deaths jumping higher. It looks like a possible rollercoaster back to the March period... pretty sad. Another surge of deaths appears to be on the way.

 

[highfigh]

The data I am seeing shows Italy deaths jumping higher. It looks like a possible rollercoaster back to the March period... pretty sad. Another surge of deaths appears to be on the way.

I would argue that those who are more vulnerable find ways to stay out of the range of large groups of people and places where many people go in the course of a typical day. I know many don't like isolation, but if survival is the goal, everyone needs to do this if possible. Until then, we wait for a viable vaccine.

 

[Mr._Clark]

This is somewhat good news:

>>>Two new peer-reviewed studies are showing a sharp drop in mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The drop is seen in all groups, including older patients and those with underlying conditions, suggesting that physicians are getting better at helping patients survive their illness. . . . The study, which was of a single health system, finds that mortality has dropped among hospitalized patients by 18 percentage points since the pandemic began. Patients in the study had a 25.6% chance of dying at the start of the pandemic; they now have a 7.6% chance. That's a big improvement, but 7.6% is still a high risk compared with other diseases, and Horwitz and other researchers caution that COVID-19 remains dangerous.<<<

According to the studies the lower mortality rates are not solely due to younger people getting infected:

>>>So have death rates dropped because of improvements in treatments? Or is it because of the change in who's getting sick? . . . [Horwitz and her colleagues] found that death rates dropped for all groups, even older patients by 18 percentage points on average. . . . Mateen says drops are clear across ages, underlying conditions and racial groups. <<<

This is also interesting:

>>>Horwitz believes that mask-wearing may be helping by reducing the initial dose of virus a person receives, thereby lessening the overall severity of illness for many patients. <<<

Studies Point To Big Drop In COVID-19 Death Rates

More hospitalized patients are surviving than early in the pandemic. Improved treatments make a big difference, but so does flattening the curve to keep hospitals from overfilling, researchers say.

www.npr.org

 

[Mr._Clark]

As an aside, my hat is off to the healthcare workers who have been slogging it out treating people day in and day out while taking on the risk of infection. To my mind they are the (mostly) unsung heroes of this pandemic.

 

[davidscott]

2nd or 3rd wave it might get pretty scary in the next few months.

 

[Mr._Clark]

It looks like human challenge trials will take place in the UK, provided the trials are approved:

>>>Young, healthy people will be intentionally exposed to the virus responsible for COVID-19 in a first-of-its kind ‘human challenge trial’, the UK government and a company that runs such studies announced on 20 October. The experiment, set to begin in January in a London hospital if it receives final regulatory and ethical approval, aims to accelerate the development of vaccines that could end the pandemic. . . .

The precise design of the study has not been finalized. But it is likely that a small number of participants will receive a very low dose of a SARS-CoV-2 ‘challenge strain’ derived from a currently circulating virus and grown under stringent conditions. If none or few of the participants become infected, the researchers will seek permission from an independent safety monitoring board to expose participants to higher doses. This process will be repeated until researchers identify a dose that infects most of those exposed, says Catchpole.

Once an appropriate dose is identified, Open Orphan could be asked to run a series of challenge trials testing several vaccines. Catchpole says that the design of these trials, including which vaccines will be included, has not been determined. He envisions that some trial participants will receive a placebo injection instead of a vaccine, but he also says that head-to-head trials comparing two or more vaccines could be run. Other vaccine studies that the company runs typically enrol 40–50 volunteers for each trial arm, he says.<<<

Dozens to be deliberately infected with coronavirus in UK ‘human challenge’ trials

Proponents of the trials say they can be run safely and help to identify effective vaccines, but others have questioned their value.

www.nature.com

 

[davidscott]

1100 deaths today in the US. Yet airlines are starting to sell all seats. Mixed messages all around....

 

[Mr._Clark]

1100 deaths today in the US. Yet airlines are starting to sell all seats. Mixed messages all around....

That's an interesting point. I'm not sure what to think about flying right now. Based on what I have been reading lately, there does not seem to be a great deal of risk flying if everyone consistently wears masks. Having said that, I do not think I will be flying any time soon.

>>>Freedman and his colleague have been analyzing these data, with a specific focus on one airline: Emirates.

"Since April, Emirates has had a very rigid masking policy," Freedman says. Not only does the airline require passengers and crew members to wear masks, but flight attendants also make sure everyone keeps on their masks, as much as possible, throughout the entire flight.

Freedman looked at all Emirates flights from Dubai to Hong Kong between June 16 and July 5. What he found is quite telling. During those three weeks, Emirates had five flights with seven or more infected passengers on each flight, for a total of 58 coronavirus-positive passengers flying on eight-hour trips. And yet, nobody else on the planes — none of the other 1,500 to 2,000 passengers — picked up the virus, Freedman and his colleague report in the Journal of Travel Medicine. . . .

In fact, since airlines have started to require masks, Freedman says, scientists have not documented one superspreading event on airlines. "Flights that had significant transmission documented were flights early on in the pandemic."

All together, these data suggest masks are working — and working well. "There's encouraging evidence from a number of flights that masking does help greatly, but it would be nice to study it better," he says. "The circumstantial evidence is, your risk is low on a plane, if there is rigid masking."<<<

Do Masks On Plane Flights Really Cut Your Risk Of Catching COVID-19?

On an eight-hour Emirates flight, with mask-wearing enforced, a whopping 27 coronavirus-positive people boarded the plane in Dubai. Guess how many passengers got infected?

www.npr.org

 

[Mr._Clark]

I noticed that the article says N95 masks are not available. This not actually correct:

3M 8210 mask | N95 mask x 40 | NIOSH

The 3M 8210 Plus pack comes in a quantity of 40 masks, perfect for protecting smaller businesses and their employees. This N95 mask model two-strap design and adjustable nose clip work together to create a strong, powerful seal, protecting the wearer from 95% of dangerous particles. Preferred by...

clinicalsuppliesusa.com

Olsen masks with 99.9 HEPA filter inserts are available on etsy:

This item is unavailable - Etsy

Find the perfect handmade gift, vintage & on-trend clothes, unique jewelry, and more… lots more.

www.etsy.com

 

[Verdinut]

Some masks come with air exit valves. They are kind of easier on breathing and would also prevent fogging on my glasses. I am looking for a reliable product made with the recommended double layer cotton.

 

[lovinthehd]

Interesting video on the effectiveness of a mask vs no mask from the Slo-Mo guys and Dr Fauci

 

[highfigh]

Interesting video on the effectiveness of a mask vs no mask from the Slo-Mo guys and Dr Fauci

Anyone who doesn't cover their mouth when they cough or sneeze near other people is a pig. This should have been taught when people were very young but, like so many lessons, nope.

 

[GO-NAD!]

Some masks come with air exit valves. They are kind of easier on breathing and would also prevent fogging on my glasses. I am looking for a reliable product made with the recommended double layer cotton.

Don't those valves release unfiltered air, when the primary purpose in wearing a mask is to protect others? Just asking, as I'm not positive.