Stock Markets, I coulda had a great set of speakers!

[panteragstk]

Invest in what you know in the stock market and not what your crazy uncle/cousin or any of us here recommends.

Best advise I took from the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett.

Will do. It's more of a "where to look for info" more than asking what anyone would do. I like to learn as much about everything I can.

 

[Kvn_Walker]

Fixed that for ya. And the stock market isn't the economy, the prices of stocks are a forward indicator of corporate earnings or enterprise value.

You know, sometimes things don't click.

I spent a lot of time trying to understand the market some years ago, and it just never made sense. Kind of like I aced every math class right up until differential equations and hit a mental brick wall. Integrals worked forward was easy. Integrals in reverse just would not compute. DiffEQ for Dummies, dozens of hours on Khan Academy, and zilch.

I tip my hat to those who "get" trading but I'll never be one of them. I've lost more than I will ever gain, so I just tread lightly on lower risk longs.

 

[Mikado463]

a principal that has (for the most part) served me well over the years......'buy companies, not markets'

 

[Ponzio]

Will do. It's more of a "where to look for info" more than asking what anyone would do. I like to learn as much about everything I can.

A lot of homework is involved.

Take Coke for example. I drink Diet Coke, 'cause I'm a diabetic, after trying various brands (Pepsi, et all).

So I researched, what's their market share? Management? Stock split/company stock buy-back history, etc.

Nothing is guaranteed, you're making an educated guess and hopefully you're right.

Like gambling, don't play unless you can afford to lose it.

Start with small sums on companies you believe in and plough back your profits on purchasing stock in companies you believe will increase their market share.

What gamblers call, playing with house money. You can't miss what you never had.

Sounds trite but its worked for me, thank [insert your god here].

 

[panteragstk]

A lot of homework is involved.

Take Coke for example. I drink Diet Coke, 'cause I'm a diabetic, after trying various brands (Pepsi, et all).

So I researched, what's their market share? Management? Stock split/company stock buy-back history, etc.

Nothing is guaranteed, you're making an educated guess and hopefully you're right.

Like gambling, don't play unless you can afford to lose it.

Start with small sums on companies you believe in and plough back your profits on purchasing stock in companies you believe will increase their market share.

What gamblers call, playing with house money. You can't miss what you never had.

Sounds trite but its worked for me, thank [insert your god here].

Pretty much what I had in mind. Start with enough that I won't be upset if I lose it.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Pretty much what I had in mind. Start with enough that I won't be upset if I lose it.

My suggestion is to read One Up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch. He is known for his "invest in what you know" approach. Warren Buffett always said he would not buy stock in a company if he didn't understand the business.

With the exception of a few small investments (amounts I'm okay losing), I tend to follow Buffett's advice:

>>>“Consistently buy an S&P 500 low-cost index fund . . . I think it’s the thing that makes the most sense practically all of the time.”

And he suggests staying the course, despite market fluctuations. “Keep buying it through thick and thin, and especially through thin,” the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway said with a laugh.<<<

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/12/warren-buffett-says-index-funds-make-the-best-retirement-sense-practically-all-the-time.html

I'm not sure if a personal anecdote about how not to invest in stocks will be of use, but here goes.

About 20 years ago I got the itch to invest in tech stocks. My strategy (which was trendy at the time) was to identify an emerging technology that had a huge upside potential. I then selected 5 smaller companies that appeared to have a good chance of being the "winner" in this area of technology. The basic idea was that the stocks of at least one of the companies would hopefully take off and the gains would far exceed any losses on the other stocks (i.e. try to buy the next Microsoft by casting a wide enough (but not too wide) of a net).

After doing my "research" I bought stocks in the 5 companies. One stock briefly took off like a rocket, but it crashed shortly after that. In short, I lost about 80% of what I put in. Fortunately, the amount I invested was very modest, so it was not a significant financial hit.

Here are my not so earth shattering takeaways from this.

First, there's a big difference between reading up on a company's products based on a few press releases, online articles, etc. and actually knowing a business. I thought I knew enough about the technology and the companies, but I didn't. It's hard to know what the real state of affairs is in a small startup company that is trying to puff up it's share prices. Their supposedly hot new technology may actually have almost insurmountable problems, but the company is not going to advertise this (Theranos comes to mind as a rather extreme example of this). I will also admit that some of my "research" was chatting with my buddies about hot stocks over a few cold beers. This is not a formula for success.

Second, there just aren't that many future Microsofts, Amazons, and Apples out there. Trying to identify these companies early is like trying to find very tiny needles in a huge haystack. Perhaps there's a reliable way to consistently pick them, but I have yet to find it. Index funds cast a wider net and they catch the dogs, but they also catch the high flyers.

This is not to say that investing in individual stocks can't work, but I'd advise doing your homework if you go that route.

 

[VMPS-TIII]

The market is having a great day screwing bulls.... lol
SPY -3.4%
Haven't seen that in awhile.

 

[VMPS-TIII]

These are the days I have been looking for.
MSFT -6%
TSLA -9%
AAPL -8%
All over priced turds...

 

[VMPS-TIII]

20% more downside to go?

 

[VMPS-TIII]

China to cut its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and notes by 25%. Watch interest rates rise and stocks fall as both bonds and stocks become losers.

 

[Ponzio]

I can’t vouch for this guy and I am not an economics expert by any stretch of the imagination.

On a personal level though my daughter works for a mortgage broker and they’ve noticed this anomaly is happening all over again, which precipitated the Great Recession of 2008. Have we learned nothing? It was only 12 years ago.

I called her after I noticed the house behind me was for sale and I called the listed realtor to find out what they were asking for the home ($360K). I was shocked by the asking price, considering the current unstable situation and it was sold to the current owners in 2009 for $245K.

My daughter agreed and said the housing market is 'crazy' right now but she'll take the commissions while it lasts.

Something ain't right in Mudville.

 

[Irvrobinson]

China to cut its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and notes by 25%. Watch interest rates rise and stocks fall as both bonds and stocks become losers.

China only holds about $1T of Treasury debt, out of over $20T total. It’s not that big of a deal. I’m hoping interest rates go up. I’m tired of earning only 0.8% in a “high interest” savings account.

Super-cap tech stocks were due for a correction. Way overheated. Especially Tesla. You sound like someone who really doesn’t invest much, so you enviously revel in those who do losing. Have fun. For the right strategy dips are buying opportunities. Everyone looks like a hero when the entire market goes up.

 

[Irvrobinson]

I can’t vouch for this guy and I am not an economics expert by any stretch of the imagination.

On a personal level though my daughter works for a mortgage broker and they’ve noticed this anomaly is happening all over again, which precipitated the Great Recession of 2008. Have we learned nothing? It was only 12 years ago.

I called her after I noticed the house behind me was for sale and I called the listed realtor to find out what they were asking for the home ($360K). I was shocked by the asking price, considering the current unstable situation and it was sold to the current owners in 2009 for $245K.

My daughter agreed and said the housing market is 'crazy' right now but she'll take the commissions while it lasts.

Something ain't right in Mudville.

Home sales and prices are going up because interest rates are so low. The 2008 crisis was caused by poor controls over lending and understatement of risk in bundled mortgage instruments. That’s not the case today. Also, prices are going up due to lack of inventory. The homes in my neighborhood are now selling prior to formal listing at above asking price. Pretty impressive for a flyover state.

 

[Ponzio]

Home sales and prices are going up because interest rates are so low. The 2008 crisis was caused by poor controls over lending and understatement of risk in bundled mortgage instruments. That’s not the case today. Also, prices are going up due to lack of inventory. The homes in my neighborhood are now selling prior to formal listing at above asking price. Pretty impressive for a flyover state.

I'm in southeastern PA and prices here have skyrocketed inexplicably, notwithstanding interest rates.

Even my daughter & her company are baffled by it. Not that they're complaining. It was wholly unexpected and they've had to hire extra personnel to handle the volume of applications.

 

[VMPS-TIII]

I'm in southeastern PA and prices here have skyrocketed inexplicably, notwithstanding interest rates.

Even my daughter & her company are baffled by it. Not that they're complaining. It was wholly unexpected and they've had to hire extra personnel to handle the volume of applications.

Larger home sales are being driven by those who think they will be able to work from home from now on and low interest rates. Both of those factors may not last. Let's see what 2021 brings.

Property taxes are getting crazy. Most are breaking new all time highs.

 

[VMPS-TIII]

Super-cap tech stocks were due for a correction. Way overheated. Especially Tesla. You sound like someone who really doesn’t invest much, so you enviously revel in those who do losing. Have fun. For the right strategy dips are buying opportunities. Everyone looks like a hero when the entire market goes up.

The entire market is hooked on low interest rates. As inflation hits 10% from the FEDs Ponzi scheme it will be noticeable to the average person even as the FED claims we are still at 2%. Property taxes are rising at 8-20% a year, food prices are up significantly, prices on audio hardware/speakers are up 10% in the last 18 months. The FED has broken the system by trying to cushion every economic incident and allowing stock PE's to move to unsustainable highs. It's a recipe for long term pain.

 

[ski2xblack]

For the more lazy investors who don't want to analyze and diligently pay attention to a bunch of individual companies, an alternative is to pay attention to successful fund management. As a (primarily) Vanguard client, I subscribe to third party newsletters that focus on Vanguard funds. Then construct a portfolio of those funds, wait as it grows, and end up somewhere well above the indexers, yet still greater diversity and safety. Balance w/ cash bonds per risk tolerance, save a bit every payday. My low (well, low-ish) risk portfolio is up >10% ytd, 15% over the past year.

 

[Irvrobinson]

The entire market is hooked on low interest rates. As inflation hits 10% from the FEDs Ponzi scheme it will be noticeable to the average person even as the FED claims we are still at 2%. Property taxes are rising at 8-20% a year, food prices are up significantly, prices on audio hardware/speakers are up 10% in the last 18 months. The FED has broken the system by trying to cushion every economic incident and allowing stock PE's to move to unsustainable highs. It's a recipe for long term pain.

Inflation hitting 10%... what evidence do you have that this is a probable outcome? For the time being the problem is that inflation is too low, and the Fed is trying to get inflation up to its 2% target. Where are property taxes going up by 8-20% per year? Not anywhere I've heard about. You'd have a taxpayer revolt, like California did when Proposition 13 was passed. I have no idea how fast audio equipment prices are rising, but it's a trivial part of the economy. How does it even matter, except that we're on an audio forum? (BTW, "the Fed" is not fully capitalized, it's not an acronym, it's short for Federal Reserve.)

 

[VMPS-TIII]

Where are property taxes going up by 8-20% per year? Not anywhere I've heard about. You'd have a taxpayer revolt, like California did when Proposition 13 was passed.

My property taxes have jumped from $3400 to $5400 in the last 4 years. They recently passed a law that limits increases to 10% a year. That's not that helpful. Most states don't have a prop 13. Schools are raising property taxes left and right and water bills are moving higher.

Look at medical/drug/health insurance increases, sales tax now being paid on every purchase no matter what country or state you buy from, Grocery bills +20% in the last year. If you believe inflation is under 2%, I have a bridge for sale.

 

[Irvrobinson]

My property taxes have jumped from $3400 to $5400 in the last 4 years. They recently passed a law that limits increases to 10% a year. That's not that helpful. Most states don't have a prop 13. Schools are raising property taxes left and right and water bills are moving higher.

Look at medical/drug/health insurance increases, sales tax now being paid on every purchase no matter what country or state you buy from, Grocery bills +20% in the last year. If you believe inflation is under 2%, I have a bridge for sale.

Wow, I wish my property tax bill was only $5400/yr. I pay about double that. Grocery bills are up 20%? Not that I've noticed. Funny, I looked up just now, and the sky is not falling.