Stock Markets, I coulda had a great set of speakers!

Ponzio

Ponzio

Audioholic Samurai
Am I the only one left in the stock market?
I moved 90% from bonds to Money markets three weeks ago..
Now taking sizeable losses to the 10% that remains In equities. This is worse than most could imagine. I am positive we haven’t hit the bottom and any recovery could be 3-5 years if ever.
Welcome to the investors world.

We're all on the ship, unless you're a US Senator (both parties) and got wind of this in mid-January in an intelligence briefing.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/20/republican-senators-sold-stocks-before-markets-plunged-on-coronavirus-fears-reports?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1Ij3PUu2WS8fBkxjMyQv641yunxscnyCsv8slN8g-lz8evsYCJ30Og0RQ

I believe that's called 'insider trading' and a federal crime.

Will they be prosecuted? No.

Should they be? Dam right, just ask Martha Stewart.
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
Am I the only one left in the stock market?
I moved 90% from bonds to Money markets three weeks ago..
Now taking sizeable losses to the 10% that remains In equities. This is worse than most could imagine. I am positive we haven’t hit the bottom and any recovery could be 3-5 years if ever.
I think you're being too pessimistic. We may not have hit bottom quite yet, but JP Morgan analysts think that if the pandemic gets under control, meaning new cases drop to small numbers, the S&P500 will achieve new records in 1Q2021. They're not the only ones. Even if the pandemic can't be brought under control until one or more vaccines are widely available, that would likely occur in 2021-2022, and just the news will likely cause a huge buying spree in equities. There are negative scenarios, like vaccines aren't practical, but anti-viral treatments may still be, and there's hope that these drugs will be able to mitigate symptoms substantially.

In retrospect, I wish I had sold a few equities in our IRA accounts, but my market losses so far in non-tax-protected accounts still don't come close to meeting the Federal long-term capital gains rate for substantial amounts (23.8%) plus our state income tax (where capital gains are treated like regular income). It should also be noted that some widely held stocks are not down much at all, for example Walmart, Costco, and Amazon, and anything related to cloud computing is likely to have a very bright future.

The real issue is that for years now people have been told to invest in index funds, and when so many stocks have fallen precipitously they impact the index disproportionately, and then when you exit the index you're selling the good with the bad, and the entire market reacts. Just a few examples, GM is down about 50% in six months, and the airlines and hotel stocks are worse off. Bank stocks have taken big hits too. When you sell shares in an S&P500 fund you're selling GM and Walmart at the same time.

In my opinion the real issue many investors are coming up against is that they mistakenly thought index funds would protect them against jolts like this, quoting Warren Buffett and all that rot. They forget that Buffett's philosophy requires a 10-20 year horizon to play out. Most people don't have the stomach for that.
 
Ponzio

Ponzio

Audioholic Samurai
In my opinion the real issue many investors are coming up against is that they mistakenly thought index funds would protect them against jolts like this, quoting Warren Buffett and all that rot. They forget that Buffett's philosophy requires a 10-20 year horizon to play out. Most people don't have the stomach for that.
All that rot has made us, or me at least, a good bit of change. The old maxim still applies; sell high, buy low.

If you don't have the stomach for it, you shouldn't be in the game. My only regret is not getting into the market till I was in my early 30's. You have to play the long game.
 
Mikado463

Mikado463

Audioholic Field Marshall
agreed with Irv, as for the Index Funds, if you have money on the sidelines and need to scratch the itch buy in when you feel we're at bottom and enjoy the wave out ……….;)
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
agreed with Irv, as for the Index Funds, if you have money on the sidelines and need to scratch the itch buy in when you feel we're at bottom and enjoy the wave out ……….;)
Index funds still turn me off. If you have "play money" around, and you like to gamble, take the play money and buy what used to be high quality US airline stocks, maybe a few hotel company stocks. They are so far down it's amazing. I know someone betting on Carnival Cruse Lines, but that exceeds my risk tolerance considerably.
 
AVUser001

AVUser001

Full Audioholic
Thanks for posting this. If this were happening when I was younger/working I would buy, buy, buy.
Once you retire you have to factor in how long it will take for the market to recover.
True, hopefully this recovers quicker ...., all it takes is a working vaccine to reverse the trend. That should be months not years.
 
ski2xblack

ski2xblack

Audioholic Field Marshall
You're not the only one still in.

 
T

TankTop5

Senior Audioholic
It only took 6 years to recover ,the last time!
View attachment 34793
Sure, if you’re looking to retire and want a safe place for your money this is going to take awhile but if you’re not risk averse there’s opportunity to make tons... or loose it all!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
JerryLove

JerryLove

Audioholic Samurai
Sure, if you’re looking to retire and want a safe place for your money this is going to take awhile but if you’re not risk averse there’s opportunity to make tons... or loose it all!
True then as now. Some stocks are going to go to $0 (AIG never recovered, they were liquidated).
 
T

TankTop5

Senior Audioholic
True then as now. Some stocks are going to go to $0 (AIG never recovered, they were liquidated).
I heard a rumor that carnival is worth $24 a share if liquidated. Of course nobody knows how bad the fire sale would be on all those boats.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
JerryLove

JerryLove

Audioholic Samurai
I heard a rumor that carnival is worth $24 a share if liquidated. Of course nobody knows how bad the fire sale would be on all those boats.
Depends on when they actually sell and who is in a position to buy and if cruises get to go back to "business as normal" at some point.
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
I know someone betting on Carnival Cruse Lines, but that exceeds my risk tolerance considerably.
My friend investing in CCL sent me a text today noting that he bought at $8.75 on March 18th, and sold today at $12.50, for about a 42% gain. He thinks he's going to double his money soon in NCLH (Norwegian Cruise Lines), and typed cluck-cluck-cluck into the text, which I assume is implying I'm chicken. Guilty as charged.
 
Mikado463

Mikado463

Audioholic Field Marshall
My friend investing in CCL sent me a text today noting that he bought at $8.75 on March 18th, and sold today at $12.50, for about a 42% gain. He thinks he's going to double his money soon in NCLH (Norwegian Cruise Lines), and typed cluck-cluck-cluck into the text, which I assume is implying I'm chicken. Guilty as charged.
yep, day traders are having a ball …...
 

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