Coronavirus

[Mr._Clark]

Yeah i was corrected on a call earlier today that they are considering this airborne. It’s still a little unclear to me if it’s airborne like measles or only aerosolized but sounds like my earlier comment was incorrect. The experts are calling it airborne.
I guess it’s really the same thing.
I’ve now heard that repeated by numerous medical experts from Stanford, UCLA, and Harvard.

they did say the number of days it stays alive is best described as informed speculation. The estimates range between 3 hours even on a surface up to 9 days.What one professor told me is that there is zero evidence that it’s contagious and that is the big unknown. We need more research on how long it remains infectious. Still, he suggested we assume anything we touch is contaminated.

I'm not sure I follow this: "there is zero evidence that it’s contagious and that is the big unknown"? Do you mean there's zero evidence for airborne transmission? In a more general sense, I would think it must be contagious in some way or it wouldn't be spreading?

Here's a snip from one article I found:

>>>Is coronavirus airborne like measles?

The jury is out. As of Thusday, it did not appear to be an airborne virus in the same vein as measles or chickenpox, said Luis Ostrosky, a professor and vice chairman of internal medicine at McGovern Medical School in Houston, Texas. “It’s a virus that travels in droplets. This is very good news. With an airborne virus, one person could infect the whole room.”<<<

Now for the bad news: Airborne transmission is “plausible,” according to a study (that has not been peer reviewed) posted online this week from scientists at Princeton University, the University of California, Los Angeles and the National Institutes of Health. The researchers concluded that the virus could remain airborne for “up to 3 hours post aerosolization.”

Will coronavirus survive airborne? Are young people safe? Do face masks protect me? Are men more likely to die? Burning questions on COVID-19

As stock markets leap and plunge and people around the world learn to stay home, outlandish rumors about COVID-19 persist.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[TLS Guy]

hi from Greece.
117 identified cases. 1 death.
ALL schools, gyms, theaters, enterntainment shops are closed for 15 days.

Sensible response!

 

[TLS Guy]

Here is an interview with Michael Osterholm. He is one of the most respected epidemiologists in the world. I had interactions with him when he was Minnesota's state epidemiologist. He is a really good trustworthy guy.

It is getting closer to home. We have a case now in Dakota County Minnesota, where we live.

 

[pewternhrata]

hi from Greece.
117 identified cases. 1 death.
ALL schools, gyms, theaters, enterntainment shops are closed for 15 days.

I'm in ohio, 5 deaths. Schools are now closed for 3 weeks. Events with over 100 people are canceled. Their saying over 100k people infected. Not sure where they are getting 100k from...

 

[davidscott]

Multiple cases in DFW now reported. I might just stay home until I drive to Florida next month.

 

[Pogre]

Here is an interview with Michael Osterholm. He is one of the most respected epidemiologists in the world. I had interactions with him when he was Minnesota's state epidemiologist. He is a really good trustworthy guy.

It is getting closer to home. We have a case now in Dakota County Minnesota, where we live.

I posted that a page or 2 back when it first aired. I listened to the whole thing and he makes sense. I thought Joe did a pretty good job with his questions.

 

[Swerd]

Today, 12 March, in Maryland, the governor ordered that all public & private schools close starting Monday for the next two weeks.

All public gatherings in Maryland of 250 people or more should be cancelled. I had concert tickets for Saturday night, the BSO was scheduled to play Mahler's 3rd Symphony. I no longer wonder if I should go or stay home.

I had plans to go out to lunch tomorrow for my wife's birthday with her brother, sister, and their spouses. We've postponed that indefinitely. All that is a good start.

A more personal medical note:
I drove to Baltimore today to see my inflammation eye doctor. My inflamed eye is responding well to prednisone. I did 4 weeks at 60 mg/day, 2 weeks at 40 mg/day, and starting tomorrow I'll go to 30 mg/day. I'll probably stay at that dose until I have surgery on 13 April. Prednisone at 30 mg/day is still immune suppresive enough to worry about being highly susceptible for Covid-19 infection. So for the next 4 weeks I'll be keeping a very low profile.

 

[William Lemmerhirt]

Multiple cases in DFW now reported. I might just stay home until I drive to Florida next month.

Awesome. I have a layover there in a few weeks. If they’ll even let us fly by then.

 

[Mikado463]

Down in Florida now for the season opening Indy car race...….. a no go, as is spring training. Oh well, weather is perfect and the beaches are beckoning !

 

[ski2xblack]

TLS posts a video of Joe DMT Rogan...I need no further sign of the apocalypse.

 

[William Lemmerhirt]

TLS posts a video of Joe DMT Rogan...I need no further sign of the apocalypse.

Lmao

 

[majorloser]

I was getting nonstop calls today by local news. I sorta regret going public with this now but here are the interviews:

Pasco man, 46, says he’s county’s first coronavirus patient

He came in contact with a man later hospitalized with coronavirus.

www.tampabay.com

Video: https://latakoo.com/-/view/5160809/video/f6f7ad575e010e247ebf77caa8df2fe8/GDS@audioholics.com

The guy that interviewed me for Tampa Bay misquoted. I never thought I had pneumonia when I went to the gym. I thought I was 95% recovered. Makes me seem like an inconsiderate douche ;(

#21 on the hit list. The youngest of the bunch. You'll live and have stupid stories to tell people for years to come. (Tell Tica she can come over here and hide)

COVID-19 | Florida Department of Health

COVID-19

www.floridahealth.gov

 

[RedCharles]

I think you are making up facts [lying]. Link the study and peer review in question.

Go through the peer reviewed scientific articles I already sent you and make up your mind. Geez.

 

[RedCharles]

Children are probably healthier than most older adults.

I wonder if any healthy athletes have died from this Coronavirus?

Yes. In Iran a 22 year old female on the national soccer team died.

 

[RedCharles]

The actual mortality rate is 2%

No one saying the actual mortality rate is 2%. You're just making up facts. And you accuse me of lying?

 

[RedCharles]

Interesting. There was an opinion piece at nytimes.com on 2/28/20 about going medieval on the COVID-19 virus:

To Take On the Coronavirus, Go Medieval on It (Published 2020)

Quarantines and restrictive measures served a purpose in the old days. They can now, too.

www.nytimes.com

I doubt that the entire country could successfully go full medieval at this stage.


Drifting off topic, I ran across this article at the CDC website about the reconstruction of the 1918 virus:

The Discovery and Reconstruction of the 1918 Pandemic Virus

The complete story reflecting on the groundbreaking work that has led to global efforts to prepare for future pandemic threats.

www.cdc.gov

Testing done using genetically altered versions of the 1918 virus showed why it was so lethal:

"Dr. Tumpey determined that the HA and PB1 virus genes of the virus played particularly important roles in its infectiousness and severity. However, as his experiments involving recombinant flu viruses with some but not all of the 1918 virus’s genes showed, it was not any single component of the 1918 virus but instead the unique combination of all of its genes together that made it so particularly dangerous."

It looks like the 1918 virus had an exceptionally unfortunate (from the perspective of us humans) combination of genes.

Literally shared this same info 100 some posts ago lol

 

[mtrycrafts]

No one saying the actual mortality rate is 2%. You're just making up facts. And you accuse me of lying?

All depends where you are counting. All about the known numbers.
How many in the US diagnosed? How many died? I think that may be 3%
Iran is about 10%
Perhaps when everyone is tested, the dead are counted, not just a handful, then you get a better %, until then got to work with the numbers in hand.

 

[RedCharles]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104v1.full.pdf

Dude! Thanks for posting this. I just did my own primitive analysis in the same vein. I was trying to figure out how Dr. Fauci came up with a 1% mortality rate. I came up with a .74 mortality rate. I also calculated that more than 63% would need to be infected to achieve herd immunity based on an R 2.68. Once I put my kids to bed, I'll post my primitive data and Excel spreadsheets. I'm terrible at my math; I studied English in college.

 

[TLS Guy]

Dude! Thanks for posting this. I just did my own primitive analysis in the same vein. I was trying to figure out how Dr. Fauci came up with a 1% mortality rate. I came up with a .74 mortality rate. I also calculated that more than 63% would need to be infected to achieve herd immunity based on an R 2.68. Once I put my kids to bed, I'll post my primitive data and Excel spreadsheets. I'm terrible at my math; I studied English in college.

Again we have to deal with identified cases. Italy started with a similar mortality to China. Italy has about 50% requiring hospital care. This is higher than when it started there, but they are reporting more patients getting into difficulty over time. China had 49%. needing hospital care and 10% required ICU care.. At this stage in China mortality was around 3.4%. In Italy good ICU care kept mortality at 2%. Now Italy is out of ventilators, and rigging make shift ICUs anywhere they can. 2 days ago the mortality was 5% and now climbing towards 6%.

Now Italy has more ICU beds and ventilators per capita than the US. China is sending medical personel and 1000 ventilators to Italy. The Italians are looking to increase their 3000 ventilators to 10,000.

This is why much more drastic action is required in the US, to slow progression. We are running out of time. They are threatening to call senile old medics like me out of retirement, like the UK is also threatening. I'm not at all sure if that will work well. I suspect I would soon get the virus in a clinical setting and have my half day out with the undertaker, and may be not time for that and thrown on the bonfire. The UK have already issued authority to local authorities to rapidly have bodies burned without benefit of clergy. May be less then an hour out with the undertaker or none. Anyhow I'm expendable now, so what will be will be.

The real questions we need the answer to now, is to try and find the number of people who were exposed and did not get ill or not ill enough to come to medical attention. The Chinese are going to try and find the answer to that by seeing how many of the population have developed antibodies to the virus. Hopefully it is the majority of the population in the zone of infection. If not, now that restrictions are being eased in China, they will see another curve of peaking infections. This will be important information. If there are going to be multiple peaks, then the world will be turned on its head, as it now is until and effective vaccine is developed.

 

[FJ40Dan]

Get Well Gene!