Coronavirus

[RedCharles]

Looks pretty serious.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1234690297839439872

 

[Verdinut]

Looks pretty serious.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1234690297839439872

As of now, it looks pretty serious in Iran only.

 

[Mr._Clark]

There's a report on NPR that the mortality rate in China is falling:

>>>According to the China CDC study, among patients whose symptoms started between Jan. 1 and Jan. 10 the death rate was 15.6 percent. But it was just 0.8 percent among those who didn't get sick until Feb. 1 to Feb. 11.

That pattern of progressively dropping death rates is one we're likely to see in other countries. In other words, there's a good chance the fatality rate in nations with good health systems will end up being a lot lower than what was first seen in China.

Still, it's worth noting that even after China got the death rate down to 0.7 percent, or even 0.4 percent, that's still about four to seven times greater than the death rate for seasonal flu. (The rate for the flu is about 0.1 percent – or 1 in 1,000 patients.)<<<

Even a 0.4 percent mortality rate would obviously cause a large number of deaths in the U.S. if a significant percentage of the population is infected (to my mind this is quite possible), but the falling death rate in China strikes me as being somewhat good news.

Why The Death Rate From Coronavirus Is Plunging In China

And what that means for the rest of the world. Researchers have found three likely reasons for the drop in the fatality rate.

www.npr.org

 

[Swerd]

In China, the epicenter center of the global outbreak, less than 1% of reported cases are people who aren't symptomatic and most of them develop symptoms within two days, according to Tedros. "

There, fixed that for you .

Hey, I'm an old guy too. Maybe not quite as old as TLS Guy. I have major surgery scheduled for mid April. I'm concerned about getting sick between now and then. And I do worry about hospitals being so busy with seriously ill Covid-19 patients that my surgery gets postponed.

So far, I keep a low profile, staying home more instead of going out, wash my hands often (sing the happy birthday song twice while soaping my hands), and when offered a hand shake, I counter offer with a fist bump. No mask.

 

[Verdinut]

There, fixed that for you .

Hey, I'm an old guy too. Maybe not quite as old as TLS Guy. I have major surgery scheduled for mid April. I'm concerned about getting sick between now and then. And I do worry about hospitals being so busy with seriously ill Covid-19 patients that my surgery gets postponed.

So far, I keep a low profile, staying home more instead of going out, wash my hands often (sing the happy birthday song twice while soaping my hands), and when offered a hand shake, I counter offer with a fist bump. No mask.

@Swerd
I don't think that you should worry that much about this new virus. It seems to have been contained in China and most of the new outbreaks happen in Iran, South Korea and the northern part of Italy. There have however been new outbreaks in additional countries outside those three. The outcome will depend on how each one is prepared and equipped. But I suspect that most of the people affected by it in the US had visited Iran and that's the situation with affected people in Canada.
Keep in mind that the death rate with this COVID19 is quite lower than that of the SARS Coronavirus which occured in 2002-2004 which did affect a very tiny percentage of our North American population.
A lot of people tend to panic. One of our Quebec health government rep was suggesting that we start to get provisions of food and other necessities. What a silly advice with the situation at present!
I am an optimistic person and we should aim to be optimistic. I'm telling you that I'm also optimistic for you. You will get over your major surgery. If you have the will to survive and get over that surgery, you will. That's my feeling and this is my honest wish to you. Take it easy, listen to good relaxing music and keep us posted.

Cheers,
André

 

[RedCharles]

@Swerd
It seems to have been contained in China and most of the new outbreaks happen in Iran, South Korea and the northern part of Italy.

Respectfully disagree. And we will know the answer soon. Trump admin bypassed the FDA, so that any US lab that wants to make PCR test kits can. And the CDC has worked out the reagent issue that caused the first batch to be FUBAR. In the coming weeks, when the US starts testing people in force, I expect case numbers to dwarf SK. And I hope they do, because the more people they catch, the lower the perceived CFR will be, and that will go a long way to calming people down. I just can't see how you're right Verdinut.

 

[Swerd]

I don't think that you should worry that much about this new virus…

Thanks for all the kind words.

In truth, I'm watchful & wary, but I'm not worried or fearful. I can't afford to be paralyzed with fear – unless it really helps. When it comes to surgery, it helps to be optimistic. So for the next 6 weeks, I'll be the cockeyed optimist. Even in the presence of a truly bizzare outbreak of a virus infection that humans have never seen before.

I guess we now can guess what it was like to be Native American during the 1500s when the Spanish arrived in North & South America. They had never experienced measles, small pox, or influenza before. And they had no effective medicine or hospital care.

 

[Swerd]

Respectfully disagree. And we will know the answer soon. Trump admin bypassed the FDA, so that any US lab that wants to make PCR test kits can. And the CDC has worked out the reagent issue that caused the first batch to be FUBAR. In the coming weeks, when the US starts testing people in force, I expect case numbers to dwarf SK. And I hope they do, because the more people they catch, the lower the perceived CFR will be, and that will go a long way to calming people down.

That FUBAR coronavirus test kit was another example of how it's unrealistic to expect things to work perfect the first time around, especially when the pressure from an emerging virus epidemic is real. Just as long as they quickly learn from the problem and quickly move beyond it.

I hope you're right about case numbers in the US – that they dwarf the overall infected case numbers seen in South Korea and are accompanied by a lower fatality rate. I expect a better performance from US, Canadian, and European medicine and hospital care systems. They have the benefit of all the early Chinese experience, when Covid-19 took them by surprise.

 

[Verdinut]

Respectfully disagree. And we will know the answer soon. Trump admin bypassed the FDA, so that any US lab that wants to make PCR test kits can. And the CDC has worked out the reagent issue that caused the first batch to be FUBAR. In the coming weeks, when the US starts testing people in force, I expect case numbers to dwarf SK. And I hope they do, because the more people they catch, the lower the perceived CFR will be, and that will go a long way to calming people down. I just can't see how you're right Verdinut.

There is no reason for any mass testing. Was there some in 2002-4 when we were confronted with the SARS coronavirus which had a death rate of 14-15%?
We got very well over it. Time will tell us who's right.

 

[Kvn_Walker]

Not only that, but anyone who thinks TLSGuy is part of "the Left" needs to go to Walmart and buy themselves a clue.

If the shipping lanes don't open up soon, that's all that will be left on the shelves at Wal-Mart here soon.

 

[GO-NAD!]

There, fixed that for you .

Hey, I'm an old guy too. Maybe not quite as old as TLS Guy. I have major surgery scheduled for mid April. I'm concerned about getting sick between now and then. And I do worry about hospitals being so busy with seriously ill Covid-19 patients that my surgery gets postponed.

So far, I keep a low profile, staying home more instead of going out, wash my hands often (sing the happy birthday song twice while soaping my hands), and when offered a hand shake, I counter offer with a fist bump. No mask.

You will be in my thoughts, bud. I hope it all goes well for you.

 

[highfigh]

Thanks for all the kind words.

In truth, I'm watchful & wary, but I'm not worried or fearful. I can't afford to be paralyzed with fear – unless it really helps. When it comes to surgery, it helps to be optimistic. So for the next 6 weeks, I'll be the cockeyed optimist. Even in the presence of a truly bizzare outbreak of a virus infection that humans have never seen before.

I guess we now can guess what it was like to be Native American during the 1500s when the Spanish arrived in North & South America. They had never experienced measles, small pox, or influenza before. And they had no effective medicine or hospital care.

It wasn't a matter of not having medicine or hospital care, they had no immunity to the diseases that had rampaged through other continents.

 

[Swerd]

It wasn't a matter of not having medicine or hospital care, they had no immunity to the diseases that had rampaged through other continents.

That was just my point. Just as no one in the New World had immunity to Old World viral diseases, we don't have any immunity to Covid-19. A vaccine won't be available for at least another 1 to 1½ years, so all the severly ill can rely on for the present is medical and/or respiratory support.

 

[JerryLove]

Jerry,
I've got friends like you. There's no point. I know you're type.

Do the research yourself.

sars n95 - Google Search

I'm on this forum to hear what old guys have to say. I'm pretty certain you're under 50. So, I could care less what you think.

I've seen your ilk all over the place. What you are experiencing is called "cognitive dissonance". Your petty attempts to insult me so as to avoid being accountable for the falsehoods you have perpetrated is a defense mechanism of the weak.

You may recall: I did my research:

U.S. health officials say Americans shouldn’t wear face masks to prevent coronavirus — here are 3 other reasons not to wear them

Most people don’t use face masks correctly, a Johns Hopkins public health expert told MarketWatch.

www.marketwatch.com

Can wearing a face mask protect you from the new coronavirus?

If you're sick with COVID-19 or caring for someone who is, you should wear a face mask.

www.livescience.com

People are racing to buy face masks amid the coronavirus outbreak, but they probably won't protect you from illness

Wearing a mask won't protect the average person from the coronavirus as well as washing hands and avoiding contact with anyone who could be infected.

www.businessinsider.com

CDC says no need for face masks; Ozarks stores selling out amid coronavirus scares

Most stores are now sold out of products that usually don't leave the shelf.

www.ky3.com

 

[JerryLove]

That said, I think an easy-ish way to prevent rampant spread is to avoid crowds, don't touch strangers for a while (until it's indicated that the worst is over) and stay as clean as possible. Wash the food that can be washed, fully cook the rest and stay as healthy as possible in other ways.

Have you know a lot of colds that didn't spread?

 

[JerryLove]

Not only that, but anyone who thinks TLSGuy is part of "the Left" needs to go to Walmart and buy themselves a clue.

Given the ongoing spread of the coronavirus; I recommend *not* going to Walmart.

 

[highfigh]

That was just my point. Just as no one in the New World had immunity to Old World viral diseases, we don't have any immunity to Covid-19. A vaccine won't be available for at least another 1 to 1½ years, so all the severly ill can rely on for the present is medical and/or respiratory support.

A couple of companies are saying they have a way to eliminate viruses, bacteria, etc with different methods (obviously, time will tell if they actually work)- if we can't have a vaccine anytime soon, eliminating pathogens on people and in places where people congregate isn't a bad start as long as this doesn't have a chance to mutate (again).

I hope that the use of any vaccine will come with some level of follow-up to make sure it was effective and instruction to make people realize that the meds need to be continued for the full course, rather than stopping because "I feel fine", as so many do when antibiotics have been prescribed.

 

[highfigh]

Have you know a lot of colds that didn't spread?

No, colds always spread but minimizing contact with others does help.

 

[snakeeyes]

Most people who aren’t horribly sick will try to avoid that $1,400 Coronavirus test. That’s not cheap. There’s more cases than reported.

 

[Swerd]

A couple of companies are saying they have a way to eliminate viruses, bacteria, etc with different methods (obviously, time will tell if they actually work)- if we can't have a vaccine anytime soon, eliminating pathogens on people and in places where people congregate isn't a bad start as long as this doesn't have a chance to mutate (again).

Those couple of companies that make those claims are required by law to back those claims up with reliable evidence. If they can't, the FDA can order them to cease & desist advertising that they can eliminate pathogens. And the FTC can go after them with lawsuits for false advertising.

I hope that the use of any vaccine will come with some level of follow-up to make sure it was effective and instruction to make people realize that the meds need to be continued for the full course, rather than stopping because "I feel fine", as so many do when antibiotics have been prescribed.

All vaccines and medications are required by law to be tested for both safety and efficacy, before they can be licensed by the FDA for sale for medical use. The FDA doesn't make those calls directly. They appoint independent scientific/medical review boards to examine the evidence and make the decisions. That's whats so infuriating about the anti-vaxers – they falsely believe that vaccines are unsafe and ineffective despite all this. They claim they do their own online "research" when in fact, they just re-read what's already known to be false.

But your point is good about antibiotic or antiviral medications where they must be taken over several days, as long as 10 days, to be effective. Despite their doctor's efforts at warning them to take the full prescription, too many people stop sooner than that. That's part of the reason why bacteria and viruses develop resistance to those medications.