American audio industry may suffer a blow..

[shadyJ]

I'm also not buying the assertion that a recession is imminent.

What if I gave you a discount on that assertion, would you be interested then?

 

[Drunkpenguin]

Net neutrality was a good idea gone wrong. All it did was lead to data caps. As always in the end, us consumers pay for law changes. Now with it gone, data caps still exist.

 

[Irvrobinson]

What if I gave you a discount on that assertion, would you be interested then?

Uh, no. I just read that consumer confidence is at an 18 year high. Unemployment is low, the labor participation rate is going up, and construction activity is nearing a level that labor shortages are the limiting factor. I don't like Trump either, but there's very little evidence that a recession is near. If anything, the expansion looks like it will continue into 2019.

 

[Mikado463]

Hey, hot off the press.........Justice Ruth Ginsburg is now coming forward claiming Abraham Lincoln pinched her ass in high school !

 

[Midwesthonky]

Uh, no. I just read that consumer confidence is at an 18 year high. Unemployment is low, the labor participation rate is going up, and construction activity is nearing a level that labor shortages are the limiting factor. I don't like Trump either, but there's very little evidence that a recession is near. If anything, the expansion looks like it will continue into 2019.

I agree things will keep going through 2019. I expect issues starting in 2020. That's when the impact of inflation will really start to rear it's head. Add in the insane multiples that tech stocks are trading it plus other factors and I fully expect a slow-down/recession. But probably not until 2020.

 

[Irvrobinson]

Add in the insane multiples that tech stocks are trading at...

For some time I refused to invest in stocks with very high PE ratios, but then I got tired of missing out on the gains. So I created a special account nicknamed "Stocks I would never own", and put some funds into it. Now it's my biggest investment account.

 

[pewternhrata]

Net neutrality was a good idea gone wrong. All it did was lead to data caps. As always in the end, us consumers pay for law changes. Now with it gone, data caps still exist.

I'm grandfathered into my unlimited plan with Verizon...until they find a way to hornswoggle me out of it...with my home internet i never noticed a difference but my provider also sent out letters stating nothing would change, so far so good especially since I stream a ton at home.

 

[John Parks]

Bandwidth throttling was getting bad before net neutrality. Netflix had to bribe ISPs to let their own traffic through uninhibited. Streaming before and after net neutrality passed was a night and day change for me personally. I could not stream anything in HD during daytime hours from Netflix or Amazon before net neutrality, but the day it passed, somehow all my video streaming services made huge improvements, despite still having the same internet plan. I could actually watch HD video during the day.

Dude - I know this is a "serious" thread and people are getting butt-hurt over their political affiliations (not saying it was you - or me for that matter as I have stated my "leanings") but where do you live, Singapore?

 

[Forsooth]

 

[Irvrobinson]

Where's the barf emoticon when you need it?

 

[Drunkpenguin]

 

[shadyJ]

Dude - I know this is a "serious" thread and people are getting butt-hurt over their political affiliations (not saying it was you - or me for that matter as I have stated my "leanings") but where do you live, Singapore?

I use AT&T in a suburb of a large American Metropolis, the plan is not bad, 25 MB down, 4 MB up. More than enough for HD video. The ISP was deliberately throttling certain services like Netflix, because AT&T wants you to subscribe to their own crappy entertainment venues. The behavior of ISPs throttling certain services is well documented.

 

[shadyJ]

He will have a difficult time campaigning from prison.

 

[Danzilla31]

I use AT&T in a suburb of a large American Metropolis, the plan is not bad, 25 MB down, 4 MB up. More than enough for HD video. The ISP was deliberately throttling certain services like Netflix, because AT&T wants you to subscribe to their own crappy entertainment venues. The behavior of ISPs throttling certain services is well documented.

Hey Shady I've been following this thread with interest just trying to stay out of the emotional side of it. Just how much projected inflation of cost could we be looking at here? Or is this one of those situations where it's impossible to know until enough time plays out? Right now I'm researching a lot before I put any of my own thoughts out there on the subject. But from what I've come up with audio could take a pretty good hit due to all the parts listed on the tariff list that go into equipment. But also companies may be able to find ways around it. Does seem like one of those situations where everybody on all sides is gonna get bloodied up a bit nobody would come out of this unaffected. Damn shame if you ask me.

 

[pewternhrata]

Hey Shady I've been following this thread with interest just trying to stay out of the emotional side of it. Just how much projected inflation of cost could we be looking at here? Or is this one of those situations where it's impossible to know until enough time plays out? Right now I'm researching a lot before I put any of my own thoughts out there on the subject. But from what I've come up with audio could take a pretty good hit due to all the parts listed on the tariff list that go into equipment. But also companies may be able to find ways around it. Does seem like one of those situations where everybody on all sides is gonna get bloodied up a bit nobody would come out of this unaffected. Damn shame if you ask me.

From what I understand, parts (unfinished goods) seem to get hit harder than a finished good such as a tv. So if you make your product overseas it may not inflate costs as high as if you were buying parts overseas and assembling in the states? Please correct/clarify if I'm wrong

 

[Danzilla31]

From what I understand, parts (unfinished goods) seem to get hit harder than a finished good such as a tv. So if you make your product overseas it may not inflate costs as high as if you were buying parts overseas and assembling in the states? Please correct/clarify if I'm wrong

If that's the case that's very helpful to know thanks for the info

 

[pewternhrata]

If that's the case that's very helpful to know thanks for the info

I've read through the new tarrifs, as well as 'old' ones, it turns into a circle of wtf if this then than that. Nothing is clear except for ones own interpretation

 

[lovinthehd]

I don't know what the wholesale/retail margins are on consumer electronics, but let's say 30% as a conservative estimate. That would make the imported value (the part subject to the tariff) $800 x 0.7 = $560. Assuming the next model costs the same to manufacture, and assuming the tariff is 25%, that would make the new price ($560 x 1.25) x 1.3 = $910. So let's assume the tariff added $100 to the retail price. So a person on a budget who doesn't have elasticity of $100 would probably just go with a cheaper model.

I'm also not buying the assertion that a recession is imminent.

Import value is generally based on what's called actual transaction value. Possibly what the maufacturer sells to itself (via a US based arm as importer) before reselling to distributors let alone retailers. In any case think I think your calculations for value are on the high side. I never did clearances for consumer audio gear and was surprised when I just looked up the tariff on AVRs and it was already duty free for most countries. What a consumer friendly tariff (considering there is virtually no domestic production to protect but certainly isn't encouraging it on the other hand)! Before the 25% duty there are also what are called user fees. The Merchandise Processing Fee (MPF) is collected on all imports, seems currently .3464% per entry with a maximum of nearly $500 per entry (so large quantitiy importations becomes a smaller percentage of value...). Ocean arrivals incur another user fee called the Harbor Maintenance Fee (HMF) of .125% which I don't think they've capped with a maximum like the MPF.

 

[lovinthehd]

Uh, no. I just read that consumer confidence is at an 18 year high. Unemployment is low, the labor participation rate is going up, and construction activity is nearing a level that labor shortages are the limiting factor. I don't like Trump either, but there's very little evidence that a recession is near. If anything, the expansion looks like it will continue into 2019.

We are largely dependent on the general confidence, when it dips things can change rapidly but I think we're generally still confident for the time being (altho there are reasons to wonder why ). I think we've got some time but with the drumpf who the hell knows what's going to happen.

 

[lovinthehd]

Then again Denons made in Vietnam (or Japan) are not affected so the $800 Denon story....