American audio industry may suffer a blow..

Johnny2Bad

Johnny2Bad

Audioholic Chief
So, has the escalation (China vs US) ended? Are the tariffs implemented on everything or do we have more on the way?
Is the White house still denying this is a trade war?

When I bought my first home, the bank was like my consultant and gave me good honest advice on what was a responsible mortgage to take on.
About 10 years later when I went for pre-approval, things had changed! I don't remember the maximum amount they were willing to approve, but I do remember it was insane and twice what I considered reasonable based on my first home.
That reflects a shift in the mortgage industry, for the second home, they were outright encouraging me to take on a level of debt which left little room for even a minor emergency.
That is a problem with capitalism! It is so great in so many ways, but it also does not recognize any benefit from doing what is right. As a kid after WW2, people in my home town were very much unified in building and maintaining a good community/society. People charged a "fair price for a job well done".
Today, the rules of business consider this foolish behavior and say you should charge the maximum the market will bear!
Of course there is much wisdom in your post, but you have to realize how much pressure there is to lend money. It vastly accelerates how quickly an economy can grow. It requires a certain blind eye to the fate of "the little people" who always pay the highest price, but the net result is more prosperity for all. So don't expect it to change.

Here's an interesting footnote ... due to the nature of my career (before I became ill and had to retire) every loan I ever got happened when I was unemployed. I still have two mortgages on two different properties. I had to submit two years worth of 'Notice of Assessment(s)" which are a summary of your tax return provided by Canada Customs and Revenue Agency (CCRA = IRS) but no pay stubs ... didn't have any.
 
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Johnny2Bad

Johnny2Bad

Audioholic Chief
Getting somewhat back on topic, Tariffs are only designed to do one thing, and only effectively do one thing, and that is to raise prices to domestic consumers. And that is exactly what they do.

The supporting argument is that when imports cost more, the price differential between the imported good and the domestic good is narrowed, and the hope is that consumers will choose the domestic good more often.

But it never results in lower prices, because domestic providers tend to rely on the tariff to support higher prices for their own goods ... it reduces competition and if you have little competition, you exploit the profit potential.

If you're a publicly traded company, it's actually illegal not to maximize profit; your company principals can be charged or sued. If you're a private entity, you don't need to disclose any financial information, and there is even less incentive to avoid maximizing profit, since no-one can know the extent of it.

Where is harms the domestic economy is not, as one might first assume, in higher costs to produce goods. It is that you have less incentive to remain competitive, and if the tariffs should disappear, your domestic sales suffer. While they are in force, your products become more expensive on the world market, making trade fall, not rise. So in the end it harms the very companies it's intended to protect.

The other way it harms domestic producers is in the way your offshore competitors will react ... they can increase innovation to compete rather than compete on price. That too can make your products less attractive domestically and internationally and potentially harms exports.

There is still another $200 Billion worth of PRC goods that are tariff free, and those could be subject to tariffs at any time. So it's not over yet. China is likely to resort to what is referred to as "non-tariff barriers" such as refusing licenses to American companies who want to expand their footprint in the world's second largest and growing economy. The US enjoys a massive trade surplus with the rest of the world in Services, and Services have to satisfy regulators.

Chinese consumers have also been known to quickly embrace boycotts (South Korea, Japan, even some domestic Chinese companies such as restaurant chains) and that may threaten business of established American brands (Buick, Apple, McDonalds) in China. So it's not really true that China has no more arrows in their quill.

Already business has adapted it's practices to try to avoid tariffs ... already mentioned is the possibility of transferring electronics to third countries, and the US is already shipping soybeans to Brazil to re-export to China tariff-free. But agricultural goods can be identified by origin (soils differ, trace elements differ) so that is another weapon China can employ if it so desires (it may not ... it's the world's largest buyer of soybeans).

As readers have probably gleaned, I am not a supporter of tariffs. The politics to me are irrelevant ... it's not my country and not my place. But it affects me and my countrymen so I don't feel comments are inappropriate on simply a commerce basis. Some may be aware I'm trying to bring a commercial product to market ... this is raising my cost of production and I will have to eat the increase. Although the US is still Canada's largest trading partner, our dependence on American trade is falling, from about 80% of exports in 2000 to around 50% today. Canada has been aggressively seeking greater trade with the rest of the world, and will continue to do so. But I will leave you with a quote from another Prime Minister disliked by the President of the day (to the Washington Press Club):

" ...
Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt.
..."
-Pierre Elliot Trudeau
 
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Forsooth

Forsooth

Audioholic
The US mortgage lenders in the Sub-Prime market, who are the real villians in all this, certainly operated recklessly and without regard to others.
Thanks for your reply. Yep, Big Finance writes the rules and pays the political class to enact them.

That ain't workin'! That's the way you do it.
Money for nothin' and stay out of jail for free
 
highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
I don't know what the wholesale/retail margins are on consumer electronics, but let's say 30% as a conservative estimate. That would make the imported value (the part subject to the tariff) $800 x 0.7 = $560. Assuming the next model costs the same to manufacture, and assuming the tariff is 25%, that would make the new price ($560 x 1.25) x 1.3 = $910. So let's assume the tariff added $100 to the retail price. So a person on a budget who doesn't have elasticity of $100 would probably just go with a cheaper model.

I'm also not buying the assertion that a recession is imminent.
30%- not when people sell this stuff online and the manufacturer doesn't use UAP or MAP pricing. I just got off the phone with Sonos, who has a minimum initial order and minimum annual purchase requirements- the difference between buying from a distributor and direct is that: I make very little vs making a decent profit. When something is easy to install, it's not going to generate much revenue to a CI and they also offer prices to consumers that I can't match because they don't always have promos for us at the same time. When Panasonic was still making TVs, their web site had prices that were lower than my cost- I'm not going to sell something when the manufacturer becomes one of my competitors, especially when they throw in free next day shipping. Amazon, for all of its great prices and fast delivery when I need something is a huge spike in the side for those of us who don't buy in sufficient quantity to get the best prices. Getting back to Sonos- they have different sales levels and in order to get the best pricing, I would have to buy $150K from just them! Another speaker company must be trying to weed out the smaller dealers, even though we may know the product better than some large ones, but the difference is that my price is almost double what the top level buyers pay, for some models. If I could average 30% on everything, I would be happy.

Might go with a cheaper model, but also might go with a different brand because they may offer what the original has on a lower model and that means they probably aren't getting the best for the money. None of the commodity brands are over-pricing their products- that's the realm of the esoteric high-end and some cable companies.
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
The US mortgage lenders in the Sub-Prime market, who are the real villians in all this, certainly operated recklessly and without regard to others. But if you really want to look deep into the crisis of 08, it goes back to changes in the banking and investment regulations going back as far as Reagan, which allowed Derivatives to be created without any means to determine the actual risk. Fundamentally it's difficult to fault someone who just exploits the rules as they exist ... in many ways it's central to American business ... but it's unfortunate those rules existed in the first place.
I think the facts lead to a different conclusion. A significant US housing price bubble burst in 2007-2008, which was the root cause of the mortgage lending crisis. Sub-prime lenders thought the bubble wouldn't burst, and made loans that were very risky. A lot of very stupid buyers agreed with (or fell for the arguments of) the lenders, that the housing price bubble wasn't a bubble, and purchased over-priced properties. Mortgage lenders and other companies who purchased the subprime mortgages from the originators bundled the mortgages into securities (not derivatives), and the bundled-mortgage-backed securities were riskier than the investors thought they were. When the housing price bubble burst the securities lost value, which undermined the ability of financial institutions like banks to lend money.

The stock market fell too, taking hundreds of billions of dollars in equity wealth with it. When the business loan market tightened a lot of businesses started to reduce staff and expenses, causing an economic slowdown, which caused more home mortgages to go into default. The housing bubble bursting meant that the foreclosed properties had to be sold at large losses, further putting financial institutions at risk.

By late 2007, at the end of George Bush's Presidential term, the US financial system was going into a lending death spiral, which is why the Bush administration (not Obama, he inherited the solution) decided to inject money directly (through banks) and indirectly (through federal infrastructure spending - very poorly done, I might add), to keep the economy going. In the end, the villains were everyone who believed the housing bubble wasn't a bubble, and contributed to the death spiral.

[Don't believe me about this stuff. Y'all should read about it for yourself.]
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
30%- not when people sell this stuff online and the manufacturer doesn't use UAP or MAP pricing.
I was referring to the entire gross margin everywhere in the supply chain after importing, but 30% may be a little high. Even at 20% my example would only differ by $20-30.
 
highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
Getting somewhat back on topic, Tariffs are only designed to do one thing, and only effectively do one thing, and that is to raise prices to domestic consumers. And that is exactly what they do.

The supporting argument is that when imports cost more, the price differential between the imported good and the domestic good is narrowed, and the hope is that consumers will choose the domestic good more often.

But it never results in lower prices, because domestic providers tend to rely on the tariff to support higher prices for their own goods ... it reduces competition and if you have little competition, you exploit the profit potential.

If you're a publicly traded company, it's actually illegal not to maximize profit; your company principals can be charged or sued. If you're a private entity, you don't need to disclose any financial information, and there is even less incentive to avoid maximizing profit, since no-one can know the extent of it.

Where is harms the domestic economy is not, as one might first assume, in higher costs to produce goods. It is that you have less incentive to remain competitive, and if the tariffs should disappear, your domestic sales suffer. While they are in force, your products become more expensive on the world market, making trade fall, not rise. So in the end it harms the very companies it's intended to protect.

The other way it harms domestic producers is in the way your offshore competitors will react ... they can increase innovation to compete rather than compete on price. That too can make your products less attractive domestically and internationally and potentially harms exports.

There is still another $200 Billion worth of PRC goods that are tariff free, and those could be subject to tariffs at any time. So it's not over yet. China is likely to resort to what is referred to as "non-tariff barriers" such as refusing licenses to American companies who want to expand their footprint in the world's second largest and growing economy. The US enjoys a massive trade surplus with the rest of the world in Services, and Services have to satisfy regulators.

Although the US is still Canada's largest trading partner, our dependence on American trade is falling, from about 80% of exports in 2000 to around 50% today. Canada has been aggressively seeking greater trade with the rest of the world, and will continue to do so. But I will leave you with a quote from another Prime Minister disliked by the President of the day (to the Washington Press Club):

" ...
Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt.
..."
-Pierre Elliot Trudeau
I disagree that tariffs are enforced as a way to get people to pay more, they are, as you posted in paragraph 2, a way to get them to buy the domestic products. Big difference. However, if the domestic product is still seen as inferior, people will pay for the imports, as the US auto market saw in the '70s.

It's a shell game- impose tariffs on a country and they'll find a way to go around. Been happening for a long, long time.
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
With regard to Investment Banks ... the "Wall Street bailouts" the argument is a little weaker, but only a little. Those entities, if allowed to fail, would take with them the majority of the nation's pension funds, affecting the retirement plans of workers in the nation.
That's incorrect. If an investment bank or a stock broker fails the value of equities or bonds held in that institution do not necessarily lose value. The value is only lost if the financial instrument was issued by the failing institution. If you own 100 shares of Amazon held in a Charles Schwab account, and Schwab declares bankruptcy, your Amazon shares are still yours, and are (ostensibly) unaffected. They might be tied up in process for a bit, but the value doesn't go away. The real losers when the investment banks went under were their employees, many of whom stupidly kept much of their 401K accounts in company stock.
 
highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
The US mortgage lenders in the Sub-Prime market, who are the real villians in all this, certainly operated recklessly and without regard to others. But if you really want to look deep into the crisis of 08, it goes back to changes in the banking and investment regulations going back as far as Reagan, which allowed Derivatives to be created without any means to determine the actual risk. Fundamentally it's difficult to fault someone who just exploits the rules as they exist ... in many ways it's central to American business ... but it's unfortunate those rules existed in the first place.



My post #265 is a BOM from Digikey Canada. I touched on it much earlier in this thread, but basically it comes down to the way component parts are distributed in North America. Almost all components go to the US first, which means a tariff is applied, before they are further distributed to Canada.
The father of my biggest customer was the head of one of the larger mortgage insurers and he testified in Congress that they needed to stop the lending practices that led to the fall- he even started a group within the industry called 'Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Must Die'. They ignored him. Bush tried to rein in Fannie and Freddie, to no avail. I watched a program about Countrywide FInancial and one of the people said that he saw a Porsche 911 on his first day with 'FUNDUM' on the plates. He asked what it meant and someone told him "If someone can fog a spoon, FUNDUM.

It's no one person's fault-

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2009/09/100-to-blame-41/2009
 
Forsooth

Forsooth

Audioholic
We have all this talk about what's gonna happen and how Trump's way will fail. I'll just say that, like a good chunk of Americans, I trust the President.

I think all he wants is for the US to get a fair break, and to turn back from all the bad deals that were created and allow to fester during the disastrous tenures of...you know, those last two guys. They were professional politicians with little or no real world experience beyond the political arena. Along comes a v-e-r-y successful businessman (in a lot of areas) and the pundits don't know what to make of it.

A lot of people -- real "experts" who should know better -- have been very wrong about Mr. Trump. Here is a public service message repeating a few of them:

“Donald Trump’s first gift to the world will be another financial crisis.” — Headline in the U.K. Independent. “He gives every impression that he will soon be hustling America — and possibly the entire world — in the direction of another catastrophic financial crisis.”

“Trump’s domestic policies would lead to recession.” — Mitt Romney, March 2016.

“If Trump wins we should expect a big markdown in expected future earnings for a wide range of stocks — and a likely crash in the broader market [if Trump becomes president].” —Eric Zitzewitz, former chief economist at the IMF, November 2016.

“Under Trump, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months. The damage would be felt far beyond the United States.” — Former Clinton and Obama chief economist Larry Summers, June 2016

“Trump would likely cause the stock market to crash and plunge the world into recession.” —Simon Johnson, MIT economics professor, in The New York Times, November 2016.

“Citigroup: A Trump Victory in November Could Cause a Global Recession” — Bloomberg Financial News headline, August 2016.

“I have never seen an election in which the markets have so strong of a view as to what was good and bad about the outcome. And what you saw was the markets rallying yesterday because of the FBI thing on Sunday. And the reason I mention this particularly is if the likely event happens and Trump wins you will see a market crash of historic proportions, I think … The markets are terrified of him.” — Steve Rattner, MSNBC economic guru, October 2016.

“Wall Street is set up for a major crash if Donald Trump shocks the world on Election Day and wins the White House. New research out on Friday suggests that financial markets strongly prefer a Hillary Clinton presidency and could react with panicked selling should Trump defy the polls and deliver a shocking upset on Nov. 8.” — Ben White, Politico, October 2016.

:p:p And this is a GOOD one: “A President Trump Could Destroy the World Economy” — Title of a Washington Post editorial, October 2016

But this has be the prize winner in my book. Mr. Nobel Prize himself. :p:p:p:p:p:p

 
highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
I was referring to the entire gross margin everywhere in the supply chain after importing, but 30% may be a little high. Even at 20% my example would only differ by $20-30.
Depends on how many steps something takes between the dock and the dealer.
 
Johnny2Bad

Johnny2Bad

Audioholic Chief
Well, highfigh, you may disagree that tariffs are "enforced" as a way to get people to pay more, but that is exactly what happens. US Steel and Aluminum producers immediately raised domestic prices when those tariffs were enacted. US lumber producers immediately raised the cost of softwood lumber when the US once again (countless times since 1980) imposed tariffs on Canadian lumber exports. If there is anything remarkable about it, it's the consistency of the reaction by domestic business.

You can expect the same with increased tariffs from the PRC. Like the financial crisis, it's an opportunity for some domestic businesses and it will be exploited. And that the cost of PRC-sourced imports will rise is a given.

Now, those tariffs are a transfer of wealth, not a loss ... the tariffs enrich the US treasury at the expense of business and consumers. But if history is any indication, that's not a safe place to park money.

I don't have a problem with the President, he's not my concern. In my career I got to know perhaps 2000 Americans, and since the business I was in was expensive, I would guess no more than 2 of 100 were Democrats. Some were Billionaires, most were Millionaires, some had very high security clearances (NSA, DoD, a Rear Admiral, weapon manufacturers, Washington Lobbyists, the Governor of Wisconsin, CEOs, the GM of an NFL team, retired athletes, many lawyers, bankers, medicine professionals, and self-made men. And a few mobsters). I would spend rougly 50 hours face to face with them, often every year. Many became and still are close friends.

So I completely understand if you yourself vote Republican and even if you support Donald Trump himself. It's your country, participate as you see fit. But I have to say that every US President has made mistakes in policy, and to support the current Administration doesn't automatically follow that you agree with every little thing. Politics is a game of compromise, as much for the voter as the voted. The Health Insurance executives I got to know loved ObamaCare as it generated good profits, and I have little doubt they voted Republican in the last election.

Time will tell, of course, but my gut is this doesn't end well.

Regards
 
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Forsooth

Forsooth

Audioholic
...US Steel and Aluminum producers immediately raised domestic prices when those tariffs were enacted...
Why shouldn't the prices go up? Steel is back(!) in the US and that is a good thing. I want the US to have the most robust steel industry in the world. To a globalist, it doesn't matter where steel (etc.) comes from. To a nationalist, like me, who wants America First policies, it matters a lot.
 
Johnny2Bad

Johnny2Bad

Audioholic Chief
Why shouldn't the prices go up? Steel is back(!) in the US and that is a good thing. I want the US to have the most robust steel industry in the world. To a globalist, it doesn't matter where steel (etc.) comes from. To a nationalist, like me, who wants America First policies, it matters a lot.
I applaud your support of the US domestic steel industry, but I think you will need more than a tariff and domestic consumption to equal the output of the world's largest producers (China, Japan, India, then the USA).

China alone produces about 800 metric tonnes a year and uses 740 tonnes domestically (Global production is about 1700 mmt); the US, produces about 80 metric tonnes, Mexico about 17 mmt, Canada about 13 mmt (total: 110 mmt). Total NAFTA consumption is about 140 mmt, so imports are a reality, not an option.

The problem with steel tariffs is there are a huge number of specialized alloys only made in one foundry in the world, so the product simply isn't available from domestic sources. If your firm uses one of these alloys (say, you want Swedish Sandvik to make kitchen knives) you either substitute or you import.

Often substitution isn't an option., there are currently thousands of applications for an exemption from the steel tariff from American businesses who use a special alloy in domestic manufacturing. The Department of Commerce is nearly a year behind in ruling on exemption applications. And US Steel producers have been employing a tactic of objecting to exemptions in the last few hours of the comment window, which prevents the applicant from responding before a ruling is made, for alloys they don't even make and have no plans of producing.

Business is going to adjust to any new development ... it doesn't have to be a tariff ... by taking maximum advantage of any opportunity. It's essentially impossible to insure your intended result will be the actual result. Armed with the same super-computers that can predict weather two weeks in advance with better than 80% accuracy, Economists can't even run two iterations and get the same result.

Economics is such a complex field, one which half your inputs are hard data, only half of that is properly gathered, and the other half is your best guess. Every adminstration can always find an Economist who will tell you your policy will work because there are 50 versions of the truth, and all of them, differing only in degree, are wrong. Economists who get "close", given an open-ended time frame of between a day and a decade, once the smoke clears and not before, are revered as seers, as that is considered perfection in that field.
 
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S

shadyJ

Speaker of the House
Staff member
Why shouldn't the prices go up?
Foreign steel is better, period. I used to work in a factory of steel-made products, so we bought lots of steel rolls. Management were upset at George W's steel tariffs in the early 2000's, as it basically forced the factory to buy American steel. American steel quality was very bad vs Japanese quality, so much so that it compromised our own quality control. What the USA should have done is figure out how to compete with the Japanese. Tariffs do not give domestic businesses incentive to improve their products or services. If you were really serious about wanting the steel industry to do better, the solution is to figure out how to make a competitive product, not reward laziness as a tariff does.
 
KEW

KEW

Audioholic Overlord
We have all this talk about what's gonna happen and how Trump's way will fail. I'll just say that, like a good chunk of Americans, I trust the President.

I think all he wants is for the US to get a fair break, and to turn back from all the bad deals that were created and allow to fester during the disastrous tenures of...you know, those last two guys. They were professional politicians with little or no real world experience beyond the political arena. Along comes a v-e-r-y successful businessman (in a lot of areas) and the pundits don't know what to make of it.

A lot of people -- real "experts" who should know better -- have been very wrong about Mr. Trump. Here is a public service message repeating a few of them:

“Donald Trump’s first gift to the world will be another financial crisis.” — Headline in the U.K. Independent. “He gives every impression that he will soon be hustling America — and possibly the entire world — in the direction of another catastrophic financial crisis.”

“Trump’s domestic policies would lead to recession.” — Mitt Romney, March 2016.

“If Trump wins we should expect a big markdown in expected future earnings for a wide range of stocks — and a likely crash in the broader market [if Trump becomes president].” —Eric Zitzewitz, former chief economist at the IMF, November 2016.

“Under Trump, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months. The damage would be felt far beyond the United States.” — Former Clinton and Obama chief economist Larry Summers, June 2016

“Trump would likely cause the stock market to crash and plunge the world into recession.” —Simon Johnson, MIT economics professor, in The New York Times, November 2016.

“Citigroup: A Trump Victory in November Could Cause a Global Recession” — Bloomberg Financial News headline, August 2016.

“I have never seen an election in which the markets have so strong of a view as to what was good and bad about the outcome. And what you saw was the markets rallying yesterday because of the FBI thing on Sunday. And the reason I mention this particularly is if the likely event happens and Trump wins you will see a market crash of historic proportions, I think … The markets are terrified of him.” — Steve Rattner, MSNBC economic guru, October 2016.

“Wall Street is set up for a major crash if Donald Trump shocks the world on Election Day and wins the White House. New research out on Friday suggests that financial markets strongly prefer a Hillary Clinton presidency and could react with panicked selling should Trump defy the polls and deliver a shocking upset on Nov. 8.” — Ben White, Politico, October 2016.

:p:pAnd this is a GOOD one: “A President Trump Could Destroy the World Economy” — Title of a Washington Post editorial, October 2016

But this has be the prize winner in my book. Mr. Nobel Prize himself. :p:p:p:p:p:p

Perhaps, if we only had Trump's first round of tariffs, or it and China's first wave response, I could partially share your optimism. However, we are, at this point, in a trade war. If you believe the second wave of tariffs and China's response will not be harmful to us (and China),you won't need to wait too long.
Basically, Trump and China are playing a game of chicken. Trump is banking that Xi Jingpin is going to back down before he does. Personally, I think going up against a communist country, show-down style, is a huge mistake. Trump seems to be able to control the news for his base, but the rest of the US enjoys access to free press. The Chinese government does control their press, and can spin the trade war however they want. Trump answers to a democratic election process. The Chinese people are used to complying with whatever the government directs them to do. That is a "strength" of communism, at least for this scenario.
Probably most important, China views themselves as a rising superpower! How quick do you think they will yield to us?
It is not like China will suffer from poor image/relations with Europe and Canada after Trump has offended so many of our allies. If China stays the course, it will be a win for their agenda of getting recognized as among the (and soon to be the) most powerful countries.
I hope maybe some of the corporate influences (which I generally detest) will impose their influence on Trump or China to end this sooner rather than later; but both are in a corner regarding maintaining their image.
If and when this ends there will be some creative BS in play to save face for whichever side backs down!
The pain (cost) of the tariffs will start to be felt by the people of both countries.
You should not be backing Trump's trade war unless you think China will cave under this pressure? In the meantime as the cost of the trade war continues, Trump's popularity will continue to erode in our country of free press and individual independence.
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
Why shouldn't the prices go up? Steel is back(!) in the US and that is a good thing. I want the US to have the most robust steel industry in the world. To a globalist, it doesn't matter where steel (etc.) comes from. To a nationalist, like me, who wants America First policies, it matters a lot.
How is the steel industry back? (Whatever that means.) They've stopped shrinking? If we really want US-based steel and aluminum production to be commercially viable we'd need basic process innovation driven by the government, in my opinion, like we do with supercomputing and defense-related industries. Private capital won't be interested in investing in legacy industries with environmental problems and a relatively low barrier to entry by countries with national agendas.
 
Forsooth

Forsooth

Audioholic
...Economics is such a complex field, one which half your inputs are hard data, only half of that is properly gathered, and the other half is your best guess. Every adminstration can always find an Economist who will tell you your policy will work because there are 50 versions of the truth, and all of them, differing only in degree, are wrong. Economists who get "close", given an open-ended time frame of between a day and a decade, once the smoke clears and not before, are revered as seers, as that is considered perfection in that field.
Yes, this! Neither of us can know the outcome, so at present my chip has the same value as yours, so to speak. I trust the President, thus my position. Let's see how this plays out. Like Trump, I believe that it is important for America to regain its footing in a lot of areas and we must do whatever it takes.
 
Forsooth

Forsooth

Audioholic
How is the steel industry back? (Whatever that means.) They've stopped shrinking? If we really want US-based steel and aluminum production to be commercially viable we'd need basic process innovation driven by the government, in my opinion, like we do with supercomputing and defense-related industries. Private capital won't be interested in investing in legacy industries with environmental problems and a relatively low barrier to entry by countries with national agendas.
Thanks for your opinion. Let's see what plays out. I'm with the President. He hasn't been wrong yet.
 
Forsooth

Forsooth

Audioholic
Perhaps, if we only had Trump's first round of tariffs, or it and China's first wave response, I could partially share your optimism. However, we are, at this point, in a trade war. If you believe the second wave of tariffs and China's response will not be harmful to us (and China),you won't need to wait too long.
Basically, Trump and China are playing a game of chicken. Trump is banking that Xi Jingpin is going to back down before he does. Personally, I think going up against a communist country, show-down style, is a huge mistake. Trump seems to be able to control the news for his base, but the rest of the US enjoys access to free press. The Chinese government does control their press, and can spin the trade war however they want. Trump answers to a democratic election process. The Chinese people are used to complying with whatever the government directs them to do. That is a "strength" of communism, at least for this scenario.
Probably most important, China views themselves as a rising superpower! How quick do you think they will yield to us?
It is not like China will suffer from poor image/relations with Europe and Canada after Trump has offended so many of our allies. If China stays the course, it will be a win for their agenda of getting recognized as among the (and soon to be the) most powerful countries.
I hope maybe some of the corporate influences (which I generally detest) will impose their influence on Trump or China to end this sooner rather than later; but both are in a corner regarding maintaining their image.
If and when this ends there will be some creative BS in play to save face for whichever side backs down!
The pain (cost) of the tariffs will start to be felt by the people of both countries.
You should not be backing Trump's trade war unless you think China will cave under this pressure? In the meantime as the cost of the trade war continues, Trump's popularity will continue to erode in our country of free press and individual independence.
1. We don't know how this will play out. I'm with the President, as I've said. The "game" is complicated and far from over.
2. "Trump has offended so many of our allies." Fake news. Trump has offended several foreign leaders (not their citizens) because they are easily offended and because they needed to be offended, as when he demanded that they pay their NATO bills. Trump enjoys more popularity in this country than most of Europe's leaders enjoy on their own. More and more countries are moving in Trump's direction.
3. "The pain (cost) of the tariffs will start to be felt by the people of both countries." I think there are plenty of places where trade deals can (and will) be made. I'm game.
4. "You should not be backing Trump's trade war unless you think China will cave under this pressure?" I trust the President and I am a proud supporter.
5. "In the meantime as the cost of the trade war continues, Trump's popularity will continue to erode in our country of free press and individual independence." President Trump will be re-elected in 2020. I just hope he stays safe. The left is very violent.
 
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