Brexit

[rojo]

Looks like Britain is leaving the European Union, according to predictions from the BBC. GBP is declining against the USD, down around 10.5 - 11% since yesterday (according to Yahoo! Finance and Bloomberg). EUR is also declining, down a little less than 4%. Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay, but at the moment they go where England goes. Momentous stuff happening.

 

[fuzz092888]

 

[Chu Gai]

Does this mean they'll finally take back Piers Morgan?

 

[TLS Guy]

This is a great day for not only the UK, but especially those is parts of Europe, like South Med, that are shackled to the greatest job destroyer in history, namely the EU.

This is an organization with minimal electoral oversight, enacting laws and regulations throughout the EU, and in numerous cases flouting the popular will.

55% of UK law has now been enacted by people they did not elect and can not rmove at the ballot box.

Hopefully this resentment will spread throughout Europe faster than a California wild fire.

Once again history will judge Great Britain once again to have come to the rescue of continental Europe.

 

[GO-NAD!]

Sorry Doc, but I can't agree with that assessment. Sure, the EU has become a bit unwieldy and overbearing, and could certainly use some reform, but I think they've thrown the baby out with the bathwater. The UK joined the EU in hopes of reversing a steady economic decline, which is what happened:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/02/why-did-britain-join-the-eu/

From the article:

"But above all, Britain joined because joining the European project was perceived to be a way to stop its relative economic decline. In 1950, UK’s per capita GDP was almost a third larger than the EU6 average; in 1973, it was about 10% below; it has been comparatively stable ever since. On this basis, joining the EU worked – it helped to halt Britain’s relative economic decline vis-à-vis the EU6."

I understand some of the beefs - a large one being economic migrants from the rest of the EU taking British jobs. However, don't forget that hundreds of thousands of Brits are working in other EU countries, as well. What will happen to them?

"Today, advocates of Britain leaving the EU parade two economic alternatives, one based on the Commonwealth and another on bilateral free trade treaties."

I find this mind-boggling. Resurrecting the Empire is not going to happen. Sure, in the old days, when the UK could exercise greater control over the colonies, it made for a huge captive market. But that train has left the station and won't be back. There is no more incentive for Commonwealth countries to enact trade agreements with the UK than any other country. And, why would you ditch a free trade agreement with the EU - the largest economic trading block in the world - for a much smaller Commonwealth market. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for closer relations with the UK, but I don't think it makes much sense to trade one for the other. Regardless, the UK already has a free trade agreement with 28 other countries. Why negotiate new individual agreements?

On a more self-interested note, Canada and the EU are in the process of ratifying a trade agreement -

http://www.international.gc.ca/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/ceta-aecg/index.aspx?lang=eng

With Brexit, it's anyone's guess if it will have to go back to the drawing board.

 

[GO-NAD!]

This is a great day for not only the UK, but especially those is parts of Europe, like South Med, that are shackled to the greatest job destroyer in history, namely the EU.

This is an organization with minimal electoral oversight, enacting laws and regulations throughout the EU, and in numerous cases flouting the popular will.

55% of UK law has now been enacted by people they did not elect and can not rmove at the ballot box.

Hopefully this resentment will spread throughout Europe faster than a California wild fire.

Once again history will judge Great Britain once again to have come to the rescue of continental Europe.

The EU may have started out as a trade agreement, but a huge background factor was that tighter economic integration would reduce/eliminate the almost constant bickering and warfare that has plagued Europe for millennia. Again, the EU could certainly use reform - the EURO was a big mistake, as individual countries lost control of their currencies. This has hurt countries such as Greece, but helped Germany (which doesn't really need the help). It may have been convenient not to change currencies from country to country, but it should have been confined to countries of similar economic strength. If the EU continues to break up, it could lead to greater discord - especially as it relates to migrants from the Middle East and South Asia.

 

[TLS Guy]

Your assessment GO-NAD is not correct. This is not about rebuilding an Empire! This is primarily about governance.

The seeds of British Democracy were sown getting on for 900 years ago. That evolution has grafted itself to the democracies of all of the English speaking peoples, including Canada and the USA.

The flame of British Democracy was lit especially by Henry Plantagenet (Henry II) and Simon de Montfort. It is not for nothing that the House of Parliament at Westminster is referred to as the "Mother of Parliaments."

This was all about not being governed by an unelected civil service which at its worst has given rise to the new oligarchs.

The courage shown by the British people will lead to the vital reforms that need to take place in the EU.

The reason that the EU project has foundered is that only Britain among the European states has any sizeable history and experience of democracy. Hopefully Britain can now begin to remodel the EU in its own image from outside and free Europe from this menacing self appointed governing class.

Hopefully, now that David Cameron has resigned, Boris Johnson will become the next PM. Boris Johnson is someone the world badly needs. He is a classical scholar and historian who wears his scholarship lightly. He writes most engagingly in his books and newspaper articles. He understands the great arc of history from ancient Greece and Rome to the present day, while bringing his readers so easily along. He fundamentally understands not only the problems of the EU, but the angst running through the Europe and North America. By the way he was born in the US and could run for president!

Here is his statement today, which frames the issue perfectly.

On another note, I'm proud that my brother Paul the most senior politician in Kent and leader of the Kent County Council for some time now, delivered the most populous and wealthiest UK county for the leave side after a vigorous campaign.

The problems created by the EU my brother has to deal with daily are simply appalling. These numerous issues put him firmly in the leave camp.

 

[Chu Gai]

Why, in your opinion, TLSGuy, did Obama and China want GB to stay in the EU?

 

[GO-NAD!]

Your assessment GO-NAD is not correct. This is not about rebuilding an Empire! This is primarily about governance.

The seeds of British Democracy were sown getting on for 900 years ago. That evolution has grafted itself to the democracies of all of the English speaking peoples, including Canada and the USA.

The flame of British Democracy was lit especially by Henry Plantagenet (Henry II) and Simon de Montfort. It is not for nothing that the House of Parliament at Westminster is referred to as the "Mother of Parliaments."

This was all about not being governed by an unelected civil service which at its worst has given rise to the new oligarchs.

The courage shown by the British people will lead to the vital reforms that need to take place in the EU.

The reason that the EU project has foundered is that only Britain among the European states has any sizeable history and experience of democracy. Hopefully Britain can now begin to remodel the EU in its own image from outside and free Europe from this menacing self appointed governing class.

Hopefully, now that David Cameron has resigned, Boris Johnson will become the next PM. Boris Johnson is someone the world badly needs. He is a classical scholar and historian who wears his scholarship lightly. He writes most engagingly in his books and newspaper articles. He understands the great arc of history from ancient Greece and Rome to the present day, while bringing his readers so easily along. He fundamentally understands not only the problems of the EU, but the angst running through the Europe and North America. By the way he was born in the US and could run for president!

Here is his statement today, which frames the issue perfectly.

On another note, I'm proud that my brother Paul the most senior politician in Kent and leader of the Kent County Council for some time now, delivered the most populous and wealthiest UK county for the leave side after a vigorous campaign.

The problems created by the EU my brother has to deal with daily are simply appalling. These numerous issues put him firmly in the leave camp.

We may disagree, Doc, but my assessment is certainly not incorrect. My reference to the Empire was mere wordplay, but you can't argue that a lot of Brexit support stems from nostalgia for the past - a past that was definitely not as prosperous as some might think. There's been talk in the UK of forming a trade bloc including the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. I can tell you that, as fond as I am of "the old country", when it comes to trade agreements, the UK would have to get in line after CETA and TPP. They have jumped out into the cold and will have to knock on many doors, asking to come in.

As I stated, the EU could use some reform, but to ditch the trade advantage from being included in the EU just to get out from under the EU bureaucracy was a mistake, in my opinion.

So, UK citizens travelling on the continent will have to get in line with the rest of us riff-raff at customs and immigration points, while the rest of the EU citizens zip through unimpeded.

 

[rojo]

I wonder what effect this will have on the cost of BK Electronics subwoofers to non-UK European shoppers.

 

[TLS Guy]

Why, in your opinion, TLSGuy, did Obama and China want GB to stay in the EU?

Obama because he is ignorant about the EU and European politics, like most Americans. Americans have this fanciful image of the EU being in America's image. It is nothing of the sort. It would be like having states, that could have their laws enacted, changed and cancelled, by a Federal Government the people could not elect or send packing. The EU parliament is only an advisory body and has no real power.

The EU is totally daft, as James Dyson so frequently points out. They have now drawn up regulations to reduce the power of electric kettles, touting the reduction in peak power draw. They are too stupid to realize that the longer the kettles takes to biol the more energy will be wasted. So it will waste energy. However they answer to on one and will take no advice. This is just one of many examples.

China is easy. They are systematically destroying the British Steel industry, by dumping huge amounts of inferior steel on the market dirt cheap. Despite David Cameron's best efforts, the EU will not let the UK impose the tariffs which should be imposed. The Chinese know full well that when a prime minister from the leave side takes over, the jig will be well and truly up.

The odd thing is that Donald Trump seems to get all this. I don't know if he gets much else, but he does understand the danger that is the EU. The EU is by far the biggest brake in world economic recovery. Hopefully the markets will come round to understanding this and have a huge recovery.

 

[TLS Guy]

We may disagree, Doc, but my assessment is certainly not incorrect. My reference to the Empire was mere wordplay, but you can't argue that a lot of Brexit support stems from nostalgia for the past - a past that was definitely not as prosperous as some might think. There's been talk in the UK of forming a trade bloc including the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. I can tell you that, as fond as I am of "the old country", when it comes to trade agreements, the UK would have to get in line after CETA and TPP. They have jumped out into the cold and will have to knock on many doors, asking to come in.

As I stated, the EU could use some reform, but to ditch the trade advantage from being included in the EU just to get out from under the EU bureaucracy was a mistake, in my opinion.

So, UK citizens travelling on the continent will have to get in line with the rest of us riff-raff at customs and immigration points, while the rest of the EU citizens zip through unimpeded.

No, having more and more of your laws enacted by unelected civil servants is far too big a price to pay. Protecting your democracy is worth a lot of hardship. There won't be hardship. It was Britain's hard one democratic rights that enabled Britain to forge the modern world back in the eighteen century. Now Britain will help forge the modern Europe. Britain is quite capable of taking care of itself, even if had to build every car, truck locomotive and what ever else it needs.

 

[GO-NAD!]

No, having more and more of your laws enacted by unelected civil servants is far too big a price to pay. Protecting your democracy is worth a lot of hardship. Thee won't be hardship. It was Britain's hard one democratic rights that enabled Britain to forge the modern world back in the eighteen century. Now Britain will help forge the modern Europe. Britain is quite capable of taking care of itself, even if had to build every car, truck locomotive and what ever else it needs.

I guess we will have to wait and see. If you're right, you should be loading up on sterling and wait for its inevitable rise.

 

[TLS Guy]

I guess we will have to wait and see. If you're right, you should be loading up on sterling and wait for its inevitable rise.

My wife and I were talking about that very issue last night! As Warren Buffet says you can not predict a bottom. Almost certainly we will buy some sterling.

 

[Swerd]

I comment as an American with very limited exposure to the EU. The only thing that is clear is the election result – the UK will exit the EU.

Long term consequences are not at all clear to me. Germany is now the undisputed economic leader of Europe, with or without the EU. Given their past, I'm still uncomfortable with that, but I admit I could be wrong.

I am more confident it would be wrong to connect the UK's vote to exit the EU and recent politics here in the USA. I see no parallel between the debate between two Conservative Party members David Cameron and Boris Johnson, and the political struggle taking place inside and outside the GOP during this year's presidential election.

 

[Swerd]

Interesting graphic from Washington Post on the geographic distribution of votes in the UK

 

[TLS Guy]

I comment as an American with very limited exposure to the EU. The only thing that is clear is the election result – the UK will exit the EU.

Long term consequences are not at all clear to me. Germany is now the undisputed economic leader of Europe, with or without the EU. Given their past, I'm still uncomfortable with that, but I admit I could be wrong.

I am more confident it would be wrong to connect the UK's vote to exit the EU and recent politics here in the USA. I see no parallel between the debate between two Conservative Party members David Cameron and Boris Johnson, and the political struggle taking place inside and outside the GOP during this year's presidential election.

You are right about the Germans!

What is going on here is related to the European situation, but I agree it is hard to see the connection.

As Boris Johnson has pointed out in very well put together newspaper articles, the EU is the biggest driving force creating the new oligarchy and income inequality. He traced the arc back to Plato.

The other factor is lunatic interpretations of free speech by the US supreme court.

 

[markw]

Well, I guess they now know how we felt 240 years ago.

 

[Swerd]

Well, I guess they now know how we felt 240 years ago.

I'd like to claim the line below as my own clever snarkiness, but I copied it from The Onion:

Throughout its history, Britain has always been a valiant defender of the right of smaller territories to separate from larger, oppressive governments.

 

[markw]

China is easy. They are systematically destroying the British Steel industry, by dumping huge amounts of inferior steel on the market dirt cheap. Despite David Cameron's best efforts, the EU will not let the UK impose the tariffs which should be imposed. The Chinese know full well that when a prime minister from the leave side takes over, the jig will be well and truly up.

The odd thing is that Donald Trump seems to get all this. I don't know if he gets much else, but he does understand the danger that is the EU. The EU is by far the biggest brake in world economic recovery. Hopefully the markets will come round to understanding this and have a huge recovery.

IT's not just GB that has to worry about their steel industry.

http://www.manufacturingnews.com/news/2016/steel-industry-in-trouble-0429161.html