Ukraine – Russia … not more of the last thread

[GO-NAD!]

I would l ike the news outlets to stop their speculation- I saw a video title about Russia invading Germany. I don't know how they could do that without going through or over Poland but those two never gave a rat's ass about Poland in the past, so.....

I think they'd have an awfully tough time getting through Poland nowadays.

 

[Trell]

I think they'd have an awfully tough time getting through Poland nowadays.

The dude has no clue about the Polish military capabilities.

That said, with Trump in power dominating Congress I do think that Poland should get their own nukes. Sadly, that adds to the nuclear proliferation and makes our world less secure.

 

[GO-NAD!]

The dude has no clue about the Polish military capabilities.

That said, with Trump in power dominating Congress I do think that Poland should get their own nukes. Sadly, that adds to the nuclear proliferation and makes our world less secure.

Being so tied up with Ukraine, they don't have sufficient forces to attack any country of consequence. Never mind triggering article 5...

 

[highfigh]

I think they'd have an awfully tough time getting through Poland nowadays.

That's the reason I thought it was a very strange idea. While I don't want to see it happen, Russia heading toward the border with Poland at high speed and not showing signs of slowing before they reach it could be their way of playing 'Chicken', they need to consider the consequences if they can't stop in time.

 

[mtrycrafts]

That's the reason I thought it was a very strange idea. While I don't want to see it happen, Russia heading toward the border with Poland at high speed and not showing signs of slowing before they reach it could be their way of playing 'Chicken', they need to consider the consequences if they can't stop in time.

When are they going after Finland, a new NATO member. After all, they didn't want Ukraine to be in NATO so they attacked it.

 

[Trell]

When are they going after Finland, a new NATO member. After all, they didn't want Ukraine to be in NATO so they attacked it.

For Ukraine it never was about it joining NATO as such but for Russia to eradicate it as a country.

An article from July 2023:

>>>THE NATO SUMMIT AND THE QUESTION of Ukraine’s membership—which will no doubt dominate the next year’s summit in Washington, D.C.—has once again revived the perennial claims that Russia’s attack on Ukraine was “provoked” by reckless NATO expansion and that stopping Ukraine from joining NATO is a legitimate Russian security concern. But few people have noticed that earlier this month, these claims were inadvertently blown out of the water by none other than former Russian faux-president Dmitry Medvedev. Currently the deputy chair of the Russian Federation Security Council, Medvedev has positioned himself as something of official spokesman for the “insane war clown” point of view. (When he’s not claiming that Russia is doing battle against Satan himself, he’s threatening a nuclear apocalypse.)

This time, Medvedev spewed forth a lengthy article for the official gazette of the Russian government titled “The Era of Confrontation.” In it, amid the usual insult-laden tirades about “senile Russophobes in the American Senate” and “fat burghers” in Europe, he attempted to rebut the claim that Russia’s attempts at NATO containment had backfired by inducing Finland and Sweden to join:

This is pure lies. We never tried to contain NATO. We don’t have the strength or the ability to do that. . . . We have always asked for only one thing: to take into account our concerns and not to invite former parts of our country to join NATO. Especially those with which we have territorial disputes. Therefore, our goal is simple: to eliminate the threat of Ukraine's membership in NATO. [Emphasis in original.]​

So much, then, for cries about the peril of NATO bases and missiles creeping up to Russia’s borders. Medvedev’s bizarre screed—which ignores the fact that Ukraine was never part of the Russian Federation and that Russia recognized Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders in 1991, 1994, and 1997 without any “territorial dispute”—makes it clear that the Kremlin’s rhetoric about the “threat” of Ukraine’s NATO membership is not about an actual military threat. It’s about the injury to what Putin and his cronies see as Russia’s imperial self-esteem, a blow to Russia’s supposed right to see former Soviet republics as “former parts of our country,” and an obstacle to the Kremlin project of rebuilding the Russian empire. One may speculate about the extent to which the Putin elites’ anxieties about ex-Soviet republics joining the community of liberal democracies have to do with the example this sets for discontented people in Russia itself. Regardless, Medvedev’s own words make it clear that there are no valid national security concerns involved. The “threat” the Kremlin is hyping is a cultural and political challenge.

And if NATO’s mission is to defend the liberal order, then such a challenge to Putin’s autocratic Russia should be a part of that mission.<<<

Ukraine After the NATO Summit: The Glass Half-Full?

Plus: New Medvedev screed blows apart Kremlin talking points about the “threat” of Ukraine’s NATO membership.

www.thebulwark.com

 

[mtrycrafts]

For Ukraine it never was about it joining NATO as such but for Russia to eradicate it as a country.

An article from July 2023:

>>>THE NATO SUMMIT AND THE QUESTION of Ukraine’s membership—which will no doubt dominate the next year’s summit in Washington, D.C.—has once again revived the perennial claims that Russia’s attack on Ukraine was “provoked” by reckless NATO expansion and that stopping Ukraine from joining NATO is a legitimate Russian security concern. But few people have noticed that earlier this month, these claims were inadvertently blown out of the water by none other than former Russian faux-president Dmitry Medvedev. Currently the deputy chair of the Russian Federation Security Council, Medvedev has positioned himself as something of official spokesman for the “insane war clown” point of view. (When he’s not claiming that Russia is doing battle against Satan himself, he’s threatening a nuclear apocalypse.)

This time, Medvedev spewed forth a lengthy article for the official gazette of the Russian government titled “The Era of Confrontation.” In it, amid the usual insult-laden tirades about “senile Russophobes in the American Senate” and “fat burghers” in Europe, he attempted to rebut the claim that Russia’s attempts at NATO containment had backfired by inducing Finland and Sweden to join:

This is pure lies. We never tried to contain NATO. We don’t have the strength or the ability to do that. . . . We have always asked for only one thing: to take into account our concerns and not to invite former parts of our country to join NATO. Especially those with which we have territorial disputes. Therefore, our goal is simple: to eliminate the threat of Ukraine's membership in NATO. [Emphasis in original.]​

So much, then, for cries about the peril of NATO bases and missiles creeping up to Russia’s borders. Medvedev’s bizarre screed—which ignores the fact that Ukraine was never part of the Russian Federation and that Russia recognized Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders in 1991, 1994, and 1997 without any “territorial dispute”—makes it clear that the Kremlin’s rhetoric about the “threat” of Ukraine’s NATO membership is not about an actual military threat. It’s about the injury to what Putin and his cronies see as Russia’s imperial self-esteem, a blow to Russia’s supposed right to see former Soviet republics as “former parts of our country,” and an obstacle to the Kremlin project of rebuilding the Russian empire. One may speculate about the extent to which the Putin elites’ anxieties about ex-Soviet republics joining the community of liberal democracies have to do with the example this sets for discontented people in Russia itself. Regardless, Medvedev’s own words make it clear that there are no valid national security concerns involved. The “threat” the Kremlin is hyping is a cultural and political challenge.

And if NATO’s mission is to defend the liberal order, then such a challenge to Putin’s autocratic Russia should be a part of that mission.<<<

Ukraine After the NATO Summit: The Glass Half-Full?

Plus: New Medvedev screed blows apart Kremlin talking points about the “threat” of Ukraine’s NATO membership.

www.thebulwark.com

I agree and understand well it wasn't about NATO on border. Others just using it as an excuse when they have run out of excuses for the Russian invasion.

 

[highfigh]

When are they going after Finland, a new NATO member. After all, they didn't want Ukraine to be in NATO so they attacked it.

I don't know, but I think it was Finland who confronted one of the Russian ships after the communication cables were torn up. I watched some videos with the Finnish President- seemed to have a great handle on things.

 

[GO-NAD!]

I don't know, but I think it was Finland who confronted one of the Russian ships after the communication cables were torn up. I watched some videos with the Finnish President- seemed to have a great handle on things.

If attacking Poland would be unwise, attacking Finland would be imbecilic. They will probably continue with their sabotage campaign, since they don't have the resources - or the balls - for open confrontation.

 

[Trell]

Trump and Vance totally disgraced themselves when they met Zelenskyy in the Oval Office.

Perhaps this sums it up the best:

 

[Eppie]

The dude has no clue about the Polish military capabilities.

That said, with Trump in power dominating Congress I do think that Poland should get their own nukes. Sadly, that adds to the nuclear proliferation and makes our world less secure.

The latest missile defense base in Redzikowo Poland was opened by the U.S. last year. This is getting so bizarre.

 

[TLS Guy]

I think the only way out of this now, is for the UK to give Ukraine access to nuclear weapons.

 

[Trell]

I think the only way out of this now, is for the UK to give Ukraine access to nuclear weapons.

Ironically Ukraine did have nuclear weapons and was the third largest nuclear power when the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991. They gave them up in 1994 when given assurances of, among other things, for independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.

Countries like South Korea, Japan and Taiwan should get their own as well as USA is now unreliable. The incoming German Chancellor wants nukes too.

 

[mtrycrafts]

I think the only way out of this now, is for the UK to give Ukraine access to nuclear weapons.

Can they legally?

What a sh... show in the WH. Embarrassing.

And the ongoing rambling about the 2016 Russia stuff? Speechless.

 

[Trell]

The support for Ukraine in Europe is very strong, apart from Russian vassal states like Hungary and Slovakia.

Here are the prime ministers from the Nordic countries on a train to Kyiv.

Nerdic Defence (@nerdicdefence.bsky.social)

Another picture of Nordic leadership, this time eating candy and drinking water on the train to Kyiv.

bsky.app

 

[TLS Guy]

Can they legally?

What a sh... show in the WH. Embarrassing.

And the ongoing rambling about the 2016 Russia stuff? Speechless.

Of course they can. The UK have an independent nuclear deterrent. Ukraine gave up the nuclear deterrent for security guarantees. Now is the time to honor that guarantee.

Europe is in a difficult position as it has a huge border with Russian from the arctic ocean to the black sea. So the defense of all the states is a very difficult proposition without NATO. I am really concerned that the US will pull out of NATO. If it does then a wider war in Europe is far more likely than not, and would turn nuclear quickly most likely.

Trump needs to be impeached now.

 

[isolar8001]

What a national disgrace this afternoon.
Unbelievable.
I could imagine plastic on the floor of that meeting room very easily.

 

[shadyJ]

Of course they can. The UK have an independent nuclear deterrent. Ukraine gave up the nuclear deterrent for security guarantees. Now is the time to honor that guarantee.

Europe is in a difficult position as it has a huge border with Russian from the arctic ocean to the black sea. So the defense of all the states is a very difficult proposition without NATO. I am really concerned that the US will pull out of NATO. If it does then a wider war in Europe is far more likely than not, and would turn nuclear quickly most likely.

Trump needs to be impeached now.

I am not sure a lot of anxiety is warranted. Putin's military has proven to be a paper tiger. All they really have is a nuclear arsenal. They tried to invade one of the poorest countries is Europe, and they only managed to take 20% of it, and lost most of their military hardware in the process. They also exposed how poorly-trained their troops are. Given Russia's demographic collapse, I would not be surprised if this was their last hurrah. Their economy is bad and is about to get worse. Their 'allies' are not trustworthy. That being said, we should be doing everything we can to assist Ukraine into recovering their territory, including Crimea and the 2014 borders.

 

[Trell]

I am not sure a lot of anxiety is warranted. Putin's military has proven to be a paper tiger. All they really have is a nuclear arsenal. They tried to invade one of the poorest countries is Europe, and they only managed to take 20% of it, and lost most of their military hardware in the process. They also exposed how poorly-trained their troops are. Given Russia's demographic collapse, I would not be surprised if this was their last hurrah. Their economy is bad and is about to get worse. Their 'allies' are not trustworthy. That being said, we should be doing everything we can to assist Ukraine into recovering their territory, including Crimea and the 2014 borders.

With a ceasefire Russia will rearm again and might very well be helped by Trump administration lifting sanctions. This is what a number of European countries fear.

Do recall that Putin has threatened with nuclear weapons several times during his brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Here is one such scenario of Denmark being worried:

>>>If Moscow perceives NATO as weak, Russia could be ready to wage a "large-scale war" in Europe within five years, the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) has said.

"Russia is likely to be more willing to use military force in a regional war against one or more European NATO countries if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided," states the report, which was released Tuesday.

"This is particularly true if Russia assesses that the U.S. cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a war with Russia," it continues, emphasizing that Russia is ramping up its military capabilities to prepare for a possible war against NATO.

The updated DDIS threat assessment comes as U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to end the war in Ukraine, which enters its fourth year later this month.

The agency offers three scenarios that could occur if the Ukraine conflict stops or becomes frozen, working from the assumption that Russia does not have the capacity to wage war with multiple countries at the same time.

Within six months, the update projects, Russia would be able to wage a local war with a bordering country, while within two years it could launch a regional war in the Baltic Sea region. In five years, meanwhile, it could launch a large-scale attack on Europe, provided the U.S. does not get involved.

The agency notes it did not factor in any possible increase in NATO defense capabilities.

Trump has urged NATO members to increase their defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, more than double the current target, and has suggested the U.S. could withdraw from the military alliance if its allies don't pay their way.

In 2024 Trump said he would "encourage" Russia to attack any NATO member country that didn’t meet its financial obligations.<<<

Russia could start a major war in Europe within 5 years, Danish intelligence warns

An updated threat assessment warns of the consequences of a divided NATO and an absent U.S.

www.politico.eu

 

[TLS Guy]

With a ceasefire Russia will rearm again and might very well be helped by Trump administration lifting sanctions. This is what a number of European countries fear.

Do recall that Putin has threatened with nuclear weapons several times during his brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Here is one such scenario of Denmark being worried:

>>>If Moscow perceives NATO as weak, Russia could be ready to wage a "large-scale war" in Europe within five years, the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) has said.

"Russia is likely to be more willing to use military force in a regional war against one or more European NATO countries if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided," states the report, which was released Tuesday.

"This is particularly true if Russia assesses that the U.S. cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a war with Russia," it continues, emphasizing that Russia is ramping up its military capabilities to prepare for a possible war against NATO.

The updated DDIS threat assessment comes as U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to end the war in Ukraine, which enters its fourth year later this month.

The agency offers three scenarios that could occur if the Ukraine conflict stops or becomes frozen, working from the assumption that Russia does not have the capacity to wage war with multiple countries at the same time.

Within six months, the update projects, Russia would be able to wage a local war with a bordering country, while within two years it could launch a regional war in the Baltic Sea region. In five years, meanwhile, it could launch a large-scale attack on Europe, provided the U.S. does not get involved.

The agency notes it did not factor in any possible increase in NATO defense capabilities.

Trump has urged NATO members to increase their defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, more than double the current target, and has suggested the U.S. could withdraw from the military alliance if its allies don't pay their way.

In 2024 Trump said he would "encourage" Russia to attack any NATO member country that didn’t meet its financial obligations.<<<

Russia could start a major war in Europe within 5 years, Danish intelligence warns

An updated threat assessment warns of the consequences of a divided NATO and an absent U.S.

www.politico.eu

That is a 100% correct assessment.