Ukraine – Russia … not more of the last thread

[Mojo Navigator]

If Putin is removed from power, he most likely will be replaced by another rabid Russian nationalist who will continue to wage war against Ukraine and the West. Basically, there are no remaining moderates at the top of the "Russian Empire".

The only difference will be in strategic vision.

Curiously, there has been an epidemic of suspicious deaths of Oligarchs in the past 6 months. Some speculate that there is an FSB-GRU power struggle inside the Kremlin. This represents competing political factions inside Russia.

 

[Trell]

The Russians are apparently moving many anti-aircraft missiles toward Ukraine, mostly old S-300 system. This is a system the Russians are phasing out as more or less obsolete, but they have thousands of missiles they can use for ground targets (civilian targets bearing the brunt of this).

The article is from Finland's national public broadcasting company, so a serious outlet.

>>>Satellite images obtained by Yle indicate that Russia has been moving a large number of anti-aircraft missiles toward Ukraine, including from as far away as St. Petersburg, one of the most crucial areas for Russian air defence.

Satellite images reveal that both mobile firing platforms and missiles disappeared during the summer from a base in the Zelenogorsk (Terijoki) area on the Karelian Isthmus, northwest of St Petersburg, among others.

The transfer of equipment has not previously been publicly reported in Russia or western countries.

St Petersburg—Russia's second-most important city—has long been surrounded by a protective ring of 14 anti-aircraft missile bases. Now several of them stand empty.

"Based on the pictures, four anti-aircraft bases have been emptied of equipment," military expert Maj. (Ret.) Marko Eklund told Yle.

Eklund, who has monitored the Russian armed forces for more than 20 years, analysed the satellite images at Yle's request. ...<<<

Exclusive: Russia moves missiles from St Petersburg to Ukraine

Satellite images obtained by Yle show that Russia has been transferring anti-aircraft missiles away from St Petersburg.

yle.fi

 

[GO-NAD!]

Show of support for Ukraine takes ugly turn outside Russian Consulate in Montreal | CBC News

"Serge Sasseville lives across the street from the Russian Consulate in Montreal and has been wheeling a stroller covered in red paint out his door nearly every day at noon since mid-March.

He then stands in front of the consulate, usually with fellow demonstrators at his side, and blasts the Ukrainian anthem with a wireless speaker while yelling support for a country that was invaded by Russia in February."

"Sasseville's friends told him that a man from the consulate was harassing them. The man was insisting they stop playing the anthem and threatening to throw their speaker to the ground.

"Which he did," Sasseville said."

Maybe the guy from the consulate just doesn't like BOSE...

 

[TLS Guy]

Things are turning very serious tonight and as morning breaks in Europe.

Putin is to address the Russian nation. He is going to carry out sham referendums in parts of the Ukraine, where he has installed puppet regimes, to annex the areas he still controls. He then proposes that any attacks on those regions is an attack on Russia. He says he will defend those regions by all means possible. That is a very thinly veiled threat to go nuclear. He may order a general mobilization and is being urged to do so by some.

The UK prime minister, Liz Truss has ordered an immediate, and intensive review of Britain's defenses. This is the first step to placing the country on a war footing.

In Europe the sense seems to be that the nuclear threat is currently high, and at least as great as during the Cuban Missile crisis.

This is getting very serious. I hope we will be looking to our defenses now, and prepare to advise the public.

The news this morning is dire.

Putin is calling up 300,000 conscripts. He is now told Russians that they are fighting NATO because of the help they are giving Ukraine. He named Joe Biden, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss specifically as Russia's protagonists.

He formally declared that he would annex vast areas of Ukraine. He was about as specific as you could get that he would use nuclear weapons, and boasted that his were better then hours.

A Putin propagandist threatened London with a nuclear attack in a fiery morning radio interview on the BBC, following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claims that he is “not bluffing” about using weapons of mass destruction.

Sergei Markov, a former member of the Russian State Duma and close advisor to Putin, told listeners of the BBC’s Today program that the president has made it “clear” that he will be ready to use his arsenal against Western countries, including “against Great Britain”.

Individuals of conscription age, are trying to leave Russia fast, and planes out of Russia are full and fully booked.

This is the only slight measure of hope here, that his population may resist his call for mobilization.

I suspect the US may have to mobilize quite soon. We have seen this playbook before in 1939. I feel there is a good possibility we are on the brink of WWIII.

 

[TLS Guy]

Time to really start paying attention guys. This is now a very ominous crisis.

 

[highfigh]

Things are turning very serious tonight and as morning breaks in Europe.

Putin is to address the Russian nation. He is going to carry out sham referendums in parts of the Ukraine, where he has installed puppet regimes, to annex the areas he still controls. He then proposes that any attacks on those regions is an attack on Russia. He says he will defend those regions by all means possible. That is a very thinly veiled threat to go nuclear. He may order a general mobilization and is being urged to do so by some.

The UK prime minister, Liz Truss has ordered an immediate, and intensive review of Britain's defenses. This is the first step to placing the country on a war footing.

In Europe the sense seems to be that the nuclear threat is currently high, and at least as great as during the Cuban Missile crisis.

This is getting very serious. I hope we will be looking to our defenses now, and prepare to advise the public.

The news this morning is dire.

Putin is calling up 300,000 conscripts. He is now told Russians that they are fighting NATO because of the help they are giving Ukraine. He named Joe Biden, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss specifically as Russia's protagonists.

He formally declared that he would annex vast areas of Ukraine. He was about as specific as you could get that he would use nuclear weapons, and boasted that his were better then hours.

A Putin propagandist threatened London with a nuclear attack in a fiery morning radio interview on the BBC, following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claims that he is “not bluffing” about using weapons of mass destruction.

Sergei Markov, a former member of the Russian State Duma and close advisor to Putin, told listeners of the BBC’s Today program that the president has made it “clear” that he will be ready to use his arsenal against Western countries, including “against Great Britain”.

Individuals of conscription age, are trying to leave Russia fast, and planes out of Russia are full and fully booked.

This is the only slight measure of hope here, that his population may resist his call for mobilization.

I suspect the US may have to mobilize quite soon. We have seen this playbook before in 1939. I feel there is a good possibility we are on the brink of WWIII.

Time to make him disappear. Actually, it's past time- it's also time for the rest of the world to do something that should only be done very carefully- rebuild the Russian system of government.

 

[Mojo Navigator]

It is understandable that when tensions are high the public becomes nervous. That is exactly Putin's intention. But we should look at what is happening and not take his words as reality.

Putin's announcement are the words of a desperate tyrant who knows he is losing a war and losing power, both in Russia and internationally. Expert analysts will see this for what it is. Russia's invasion is not only failing but risks the collapse of the Russian Federation. Which, to the rest of the World, looks like a very good thing.

300,000 reservists looks intimidating in the press. Intimidation is a tactic but not much of a strategy. Ukraine is undeterred and has no choice but to continue fighting for its survival. Putin has been publicly threatening Ukraine for 20 years. It remains to be seen how many foolish Russians will walk away from their jobs and homes to be killed in a senseless war for a dictator.

After announcing Russian mobilization the Moscow stock market crashed. The economic outlook has gone from bad to worse in the minds of investors.

Putin has been threatening Western countries about supporting Ukraine but since the invasion support and solidarity has increased. So his message is falling on deaf ears.

Putin's nuclear threats ( Quote: I am not bluffing) exposes that all his prior nuclear threats were bluffing. So, more bluffing. Nuclear weapons are not going to be a tactic to win a war and Russia knows this. It is a murder-suicide pact.

I am not minimizing the potential threat but rather putting it into context. War is a deadly serious topic. But Putin's recent statements reek of desperation and failure.

Look at what happens on the ground rather than putting too much credence into mere words by a proven liar.

 

[Trell]

It is understandable that when tensions are high the public becomes nervous. That is exactly Putin's intention. But we should look at what is happening and not take his words as reality.

Putin's announcement are the words of a desperate tyrant who knows he is losing a war and losing power, both in Russia and internationally. Expert analysts will see this for what it is. Russia's invasion is not only failing but risks the collapse of the Russian Federation. Which, to the rest of the World, looks like a very good thing.

300,000 reservists looks intimidating in the press. Intimidation is a tactic but not much of a strategy. Ukraine is undeterred and has no choice but to continue fighting for its survival. Putin has been publicly threatening Ukraine for 20 years. It remains to be seen how many foolish Russians will walk away from their jobs and homes to be killed in a senseless war for a dictator.

After announcing Russian mobilization the Moscow stock market crashed. The economic outlook has gone from bad to worse in the minds of investors.

Putin has been threatening Western countries about supporting Ukraine but since the invasion support and solidarity has increased. So his message is falling on deaf ears.

Putin's nuclear threats ( Quote: I am not bluffing) exposes that all his prior nuclear threats were bluffing. So, more bluffing. Nuclear weapons are not going to be a tactic to win a war and Russia knows this. It is a murder-suicide pact.

I am not minimizing the potential threat but rather putting it into context. War is a deadly serious topic. But Putin's recent statements reek of desperation and failure.

Look at what happens on the ground rather than putting too much credence into mere words by a proven liar.

With high tension and a desperate Putin the risk for an accidental confrontation between Russia and NATO is also higher.

 

[Trell]

An interview with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

>>>NATO has not seen any change in Russia's nuclear posture and readiness, Stoltenberg said, but added that the key was to prevent such an escalation.

We will make sure that there is no misunderstanding in Moscow about the seriousness of using nuclear weapons. ... And that's the reason why we have been so clear in our communications with Russia about the unprecedented consequences, about the fact that the nuclear war cannot be won by Russia."<<<

Edit: fixed link

Exclusive: NATO chief calls Putin's nuclear threat a 'dangerous' escalation

President Vladimir Putin's thinly veiled threat to use nuclear weapons after Russian setbacks in Ukraine was "dangerous and reckless rhetoric," NATO's secretary general said on Wednesday, adding that the only way to end the war was to prove Moscow will not win on the battlefield.

www.reuters.com

 

[rnatalli]

Hard to swallow that a man who sits 30ft away from his own people for fear of assassination or getting sick is prepared to die in a nuclear war.

 

[GO-NAD!]

An interview with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

>>>NATO has not seen any change in Russia's nuclear posture and readiness, Stoltenberg said, but added that the key was to prevent such an escalation.

We will make sure that there is no misunderstanding in Moscow about the seriousness of using nuclear weapons. ... And that's the reason why we have been so clear in our communications with Russia about the unprecedented consequences, about the fact that the nuclear war cannot be won by Russia."<<<

Edit: fixed link

Exclusive: NATO chief calls Putin's nuclear threat a 'dangerous' escalation

President Vladimir Putin's thinly veiled threat to use nuclear weapons after Russian setbacks in Ukraine was "dangerous and reckless rhetoric," NATO's secretary general said on Wednesday, adding that the only way to end the war was to prove Moscow will not win on the battlefield.

www.reuters.com

It has all come down to a desperate face-saving effort from Putin now, hence the nuclear bluster. It is more bluffing, in hopes that the West will believe him this time.

Still, we can't ignore the law of unintended consequences and must be prepared.

 

[Eppie]

There are still some brave young people in Russia willing to risk their own safety to share some live video from the streets. Protestors are typically young internet savvy people who have access to foreign media while older Russians are more susceptible to state propaganda. He mentioned Telegram, which is a mobile messaging app that employs strong encryption and offers anonymity.
EDIT: Nothing compared to what is happening in Moscow with the usual mass arrests.

 

[TLS Guy]

With high tension and a desperate Putin the risk for an accidental confrontation between Russia and NATO is also higher.

That is always the dominant risk in these scenarios. This increases the density of the "Fog of War." In other words gratuitous threats like Putin's massively increase the risk of miscalculation and disaster intended or not. The problem is that we a dealing with an ignorant thug.

 

[Mr._Clark]

An interview with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

>>>NATO has not seen any change in Russia's nuclear posture and readiness, Stoltenberg said, but added that the key was to prevent such an escalation.

We will make sure that there is no misunderstanding in Moscow about the seriousness of using nuclear weapons. ... And that's the reason why we have been so clear in our communications with Russia about the unprecedented consequences, about the fact that the nuclear war cannot be won by Russia."<<<

Edit: fixed link

Exclusive: NATO chief calls Putin's nuclear threat a 'dangerous' escalation

President Vladimir Putin's thinly veiled threat to use nuclear weapons after Russian setbacks in Ukraine was "dangerous and reckless rhetoric," NATO's secretary general said on Wednesday, adding that the only way to end the war was to prove Moscow will not win on the battlefield.

www.reuters.com

If the two sides start increasing their nuclear readiness levels, it will dramatically increase the chances that something will go very wrong.

Wiki has a page describing various nuclear close calls that have occurred over the years. The known incidents are bad enough, but I find myself wondering how many there were that we don't know about.

Nuclear close calls - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[lovinthehd]

There are still some brave young people in Russia willing to risk their own safety to share some live video from the streets. Protestors are typically young internet savvy people who have access to foreign media while older Russians are more susceptible to state propaganda. He mentioned Telegram, which is a mobile messaging app that employs strong encryption and offers anonymity.
EDIT: Nothing compared to what is happening in Moscow with the usual mass arrests.

Kinda sounds like the US, too

 

[rnatalli]

Nuclear close calls - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The list is a bit too long for my taste. On the lighter side of the news:

McDonald's reopens in Ukraine, feeding customers' nostalgia — and future hopes

All of the chain's 100-plus locations in Ukraine closed after Russia invaded in February. Three reopened in Kyiv this week, for delivery only. "It's a nice gift from McDonald's," one customer says.

www.npr.org

 

[Brookky]

@Mr. Clark! You’re absolutely right. The case in heading towards the wrong direction and it will affect more lives

 

[Trell]

A quarter of the Ukranian forces fighting to keep their country free are women, according to the clip below.

>>>Andriana Arekhta, Leader of the Ukrainian Women Veteran Movement, joined Morning Joe to discuss the war against Russia and the all-women, Ukrainian soldier delegation meeting this week with congress.<<<

 

[Mr._Clark]

In the Kherson region, it appears to me that all or almost all Russian forces on the north west side of the Dnieper river are within range of Ukraine HIMARS missiles and M982 Excalibur rounds. According to various reports, the Russians have been putting up pontoon bridges across the river, but these bridges keep getting hit by Ukraine artillery. In other words, the Russian forces appear to be trapped in a kill box.

According the the NYT, Putin has rejected requests from commanders in Kherson to withdraw across the Dnipro river. As far as I can tell, his forces in Kherson are in a terrible position right now and they are being steadily degraded, but Putin is apparently clinging to the notion that the Russian military is invincible.

There has been speculation that Putin is effectively stuck with incompetent military commanders because they are the only ones that are loyal to him. The theory is that competent military commanders would oust him from power, so he needs to leave the incompetent military commanders in place. I really don't know if there's any truth to this, but it seems somewhat plausible.

>>>WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has thrust himself more directly into strategic planning for the war in Ukraine in recent weeks, American officials said, including rejecting requests from his commanders on the ground that they be allowed to retreat from the vital southern city of Kherson.

A withdrawal from Kherson would allow the Russian military to pull back across the Dnipro River in an orderly way, preserving its equipment and saving the lives of soldiers.

But such a retreat would be another humiliating public acknowledgment of Mr. Putin’s failure in the war, and would hand a second major victory to Ukraine in one month. . . .<<<

As Russian Losses Mount in Ukraine, Putin Gets More Involved in War Strategy (Published 2022)

The Russian president has rejected requests from commanders in the field that they be allowed to retreat from Kherson, a vital city in Ukraine’s south.

www.nytimes.com

 

[cpp]

According the the NYT, Putin has rejected requests from commanders in Kherson to withdraw across the Dnipro river. As far as I can tell, his forces in Kherson are in a terrible position right now and they are being steadily degraded, but Putin is apparently clinging to the notion that the Russian military is invincible.

There has been speculation that Putin is effectively stuck with incompetent military commanders because they are the only ones that are loyal to him. The theory is that competent military commanders would oust him from power, so he needs to leave the incompetent military commanders in place. I really don't know if there's any truth to this, but it seems somewhat plausible.

>>>WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has thrust himself more directly into strategic planning for the war in Ukraine in recent weeks, American officials said, including rejecting requests from his commanders on the ground that they be allowed to retreat from the vital southern city of Kherson.

A withdrawal from Kherson would allow the Russian military to pull back across the Dnipro River in an orderly way, preserving its equipment and saving the lives of soldiers.

But such a retreat would be another humiliating public acknowledgment of Mr. Putin’s failure in the war, and would hand a second major victory to Ukraine in one month. . . .<<<

As Russian Losses Mount in Ukraine, Putin Gets More Involved in War Strategy (Published 2022)

The Russian president has rejected requests from commanders in the field that they be allowed to retreat from Kherson, a vital city in Ukraine’s south.

www.nytimes.com

Putin is like Trump, ignorant and narcissistic without thinking about the real outcome of a decision. So then there is the Russian military doctrine associated with battlefield nuclear weapons known as “escalate to deescalate.” Putin contemplates exploding a low-yield tactical nuclear weapon somewhere in Ukraine to deescalate the war, and then waits on NATO's response, and that is the big question, what will NATO actually do ? Any decision to send in nukes, but to where, inside Russia it self, which could bring us to WWIII and gloom and doom for all. A mad man in control that cannot accept when his battle plan is not working is dangerous, unless his own people remove him from control.