Here's an interesting article written by a Russian just before the war started. According to his twitter profile, the author (Greg Yudin) is the Head of Political Philosophy, The Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences.
The gist of it is that Putin is afraid of NATO (even though NATO is not a significant threat), and the only strategy Putin knows is brute force, but the use of force actually strengthens NATO. I suppose another way to say it is that Putin is leading Russia off a cliff because he doesn't know what else to do.
>>>In the near future, a big war will begin – a war that we have not seen in the lifetime of my generation, and perhaps the previous generation too. . . . Russia’s plans are not limited to
annexing the so-called ‘People’s Republics’, the two separatist entities that were set up after Ukraine’s 2014 Euromaidan Revolution. . . . Since Ukraine is already rapidly increasing military cooperation with Europe and North America, without any discussion on NATO, it will be impossible, in Putin’s view, to stop Ukraine quickly. Ukraine is leaving Russia’s orbit, and it can only be stopped
now. . . . What happens next will be a difficult test for many people across the world, including for Russians. . . . NATO is certainly a potential military adversary of Russia. . . .
During Putin’s leadership, NATO has doubled in size – the bloc has
expanded four times and 11 new countries have become members. The problem is that Putin believes in only one tool: brute military force. He acted, and continues to act, aggressively, proceeding from the fact that the only way to get a country to refuse NATO membership is by force.
Thanks to Putin’s policy, more and more countries want to join the bloc, and Russia’s position is deteriorating. The outcome of the coming war is likely to include Sweden’s entry into NATO, and public opinion in Finland has also changed. During Putin’s rule, Russia has offered nothing to European countries to make NATO membership unattractive for them. On the contrary, thanks to the real danger of aggression from Russia, NATO again makes sense as a security option and its strengthening has begun to look like a basic development option for Europeans. Under Putin, the NATO bloc has become stronger than ever.
At the same time, Russian generals who have the courage to speak out
honestly admit that NATO poses no immediate threat to Russia. NATO is a possible adversary, but an attack by NATO is not a first- or even second-order challenge. Russia, my country, faces greater threats. We will likely lose energy export revenues as a result of the global energy transition. Our attractiveness as a centre of culture, a scientific power and a zone of human development is diminishing. We are losing any semblance of cultural and ideological hegemony. . . . The conquest of Russia by NATO, by contrast, is the personal fear of Putin, who is afraid to share the fate of Colonel Gaddafi. He is afraid that he will not be able to crush any uprising at any cost. Russia’s interests are contrary to Putin’s interests. And so he acts in his own interests, strengthening NATO and pushing it closer to Russia’s borders – creating a noose around Russia’s neck that it is going to be very difficult to escape. . . .
The war with Ukraine will be the most senseless of all the wars in our history. Because we can never fight with Ukrainians. Though Russians may think Ukrainians’ choices are wrong, may think they are ungrateful and cruel and their rulers irresponsible, we cannot fight them, even if they are, in our view, to blame for everything. Because they are Ukrainians – if we are not able to find a common language with them, then we are not able to be friends with anyone.
We will be alone against the whole world, and our defeat will be heavy.<<<
A view from Russia: no sanctions will stop Moscow, and its actions will drive more countries into NATO's arms
www.opendemocracy.net
