Ukraine – Russia … not more of the last thread

[Mr._Clark]

It looks like Ukrainian forces are very close to completely cutting off the Russian forces in Lyman. Speculation is that the next 12 hours are critical.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575584216829423616

 

[Trell]

I'm not sure what the "correct" course of action is, but here's an opinion piece to the effect that it would be better to let Russians escape:

>>>If European governments continue on their present course, however, they will instead make Russian entry to the West a privilege available only to an increasingly select few, and they will make it even harder for exiles who are trying to create a different Russia. And if they do not help those who are trying to flee now, they will simply ensure that more of them are sent, perhaps to sacrifice their lives, to fight a conflict Europe desperately wants to end. European visa bans will do nothing to change the trajectory of the war, and may instead, by leaving ordinary Russians in the cold, end up prolonging the bloodshed—and further cutting off Russians from the non-Putin world.<<<

Europe’s Disastrous Ban on Russians

Putin’s exiles are crucial to winning the war in Ukraine—and to building a better Russia.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Earlier this year the U.S. seemed to be on the fence (so to speak), but the White House now says Russians are welcome:

>>>The U.S. would "welcome" any Russian citizens seeking asylum in this country after fleeing Russian President Vladimir Putin's military draft, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Tuesday.<<<

White House says 'we welcome' Russians applying for US asylum amid Putin conscription

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Tuesday encouraged Russian men to apply for asylum in the U.S. Tens of thousands of men have fled Russia to avoid Putin's draft.

news.yahoo.com

I'm not advocating either way, just posting a couple different items.

One concern I’ve read is that among the tourists there are Russian agents that can do sabotage, intelligence gathering, terrorist actions, and so forth. The sabotage of the Nord Stream did, after all, cause Finland to stop Russian tourists from entering Finland so quickly.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Ukrainian forces have reportedly surrounded Lyman and about 5,000 Russian troops are effectively trapped. It looks like this will be another major defeat for the Russians.

>>>Russia has used Lyman as a logistical hub for its operations in the region; its fall would mark Ukraine’s most significant gain since its successful counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region last month.

The head of Luhansk regional military administration Serhiy Hayday also revealed Saturday further details of the Lyman offensive, suggesting Russian forces had offered to retreat, but to no avail from the Ukrainian side.

“Occupiers asked [their command] for possibility to retreat, and they have been refused. Accordingly, they have two options. No, they actually have three options. Try to break through, surrender, or everyone there will die,” Hayday said.

“There are several thousand of them. Yes, about 5,000. There is no exact number yet. Five thousand is still a colossal grouping. There has never been such a large group in the encirclement before. All routes for the supply of ammunition or the retreat of the group are all completely blocked,” he added.<<<

Russian forces retreat from strategic Donetsk city a day after Moscow's annexation of the region | CNN

Russian forces retreated from Lyman, a strategic city for its operations in the east, the Russian defense ministry said Saturday, just a day after Moscow's annexation of the region that's been declared illegal by the West.

www.cnn.com

 

[highfigh]

Is that a rhetorical question?

Why would I expect anyone here to know where they are, with certainty?

 

[highfigh]

Of course the Russians did it. They are the only ones with motive. This harms Europe big time, especially as winter draws close. As far as I'm concerned this was an act of war against the European nations, especially Germany.

The other issue is that this is now releasing huge amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a very potent green house gas.

As far as I'm concerned this should justify NATO going in and put an end to Putin's disastrous war in Ukraine. Then admit Ukraine to NATO and keep Russia's borders secured. This has already gone too far.

As I said at the beginning this adventure of Putin's has been the opening shots of WW III. It would be a grave error to delay and procrastinate and let Russia mobilize and regroup. Now is the time for overwhelming force.

I thought Nordstream 2 was already closed.

 

[highfigh]

While it would seem that Russia is the most likely culprit, they could have done something far less drastic to achieve the same effect. Nothing makes sense about it.

NATO can't move into Ukraine. While it's clear they could make quick work of the Russians, it would be opening a Pandora's box. Right now, the best strategy is to continue to supplying Ukraine with arms. They're doing pretty well on their own right now.

How long should this be allowed to continue, or should we just wait for Putin to die (hopefully) from some horrible disease/old age? What will we do about the rest of his regime?

 

[Trell]

I thought Nordstream 2 was already closed.

Germany did not give a permit to open it.

 

[highfigh]

Germany did not give a permit to open it.

So, Putin is saying "If you don't want it when you really need it, you're not going to get it"?

Can't lose what you don't have.

 

[Trell]

A new gas pipeline with gas from Norway, via Denmark and the Baltic Sea, to Poland has been opened. Naturally many are worried that Russia will sabotage this new pipeline.

Gas starts flowing to Poland through new Baltic Pipe pipeline

Gas started flowing to Poland through the new Baltic Pipe pipeline from Norway via Denmark and the Baltic Sea on Saturday morning, Polish gas pipeline operator Gaz-System said.

www.reuters.com

 

[GO-NAD!]

How long should this be allowed to continue, or should we just wait for Putin to die (hopefully) from some horrible disease/old age? What will we do about the rest of his regime?

Are those more rhetorical questions?

 

[GO-NAD!]

A new gas pipeline with gas from Norway, via Denmark and the Baltic Sea, to Poland has been opened. Naturally many are worried that Russia will sabotage this new pipeline.

Gas starts flowing to Poland through new Baltic Pipe pipeline

Gas started flowing to Poland through the new Baltic Pipe pipeline from Norway via Denmark and the Baltic Sea on Saturday morning, Polish gas pipeline operator Gaz-System said.

www.reuters.com

That would surely trigger a significant response.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Ukrainian forces have reportedly surrounded Lyman and about 5,000 Russian troops are effectively trapped. It looks like this will be another major defeat for the Russians.

>>>Russia has used Lyman as a logistical hub for its operations in the region; its fall would mark Ukraine’s most significant gain since its successful counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region last month.

The head of Luhansk regional military administration Serhiy Hayday also revealed Saturday further details of the Lyman offensive, suggesting Russian forces had offered to retreat, but to no avail from the Ukrainian side.

“Occupiers asked [their command] for possibility to retreat, and they have been refused. Accordingly, they have two options. No, they actually have three options. Try to break through, surrender, or everyone there will die,” Hayday said.

“There are several thousand of them. Yes, about 5,000. There is no exact number yet. Five thousand is still a colossal grouping. There has never been such a large group in the encirclement before. All routes for the supply of ammunition or the retreat of the group are all completely blocked,” he added.<<<

Russian forces retreat from strategic Donetsk city a day after Moscow's annexation of the region | CNN

Russian forces retreated from Lyman, a strategic city for its operations in the east, the Russian defense ministry said Saturday, just a day after Moscow's annexation of the region that's been declared illegal by the West.

www.cnn.com

The NYT is reporting that Russian troops withdrew from Lyman. It looks like there was a mad scramble to escape at the last second just as Ukrainian forces were closing off the last remaining escape route.

>>>RIVNE, Ukraine — Russian forces withdrew from the strategic eastern city of Lyman on Saturday, just a day after President Vladimir V. Putin’s internationally derided declaration that the region where it lies and three others in Ukraine were now part of Russia. . . .

Hours after Ukraine’s defense ministry said its forces were entering the city, Russia’s Ministry of Defense said in it had taken the decision to pull out of Lyman.

“In connection with the creation of a threat of encirclement, the allied troops were withdrawn” from the city to a “more advantageous” location, the ministry said in a statement posted on Telegram. . . .

A senior Ukrainian military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Lyman was “already liberated.”

“A mop-up is ongoing,” the official said. “The Russians have nowhere to run.”<<<

Russia-Ukraine War: Russian Forces Retreat From Lyman (Published 2022)

The loss of the strategic rail hub in the east is particularly poorly timed for the Kremlin after its internationally derided illegal annexation of four Ukrainian regions.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Trell]

The NYT is reporting that Russian troops withdrew from Lyman. It looks like there was a mad scramble to escape at the last second just as Ukrainian forces were closing off the last remaining escape route.

>>>RIVNE, Ukraine — Russian forces withdrew from the strategic eastern city of Lyman on Saturday, just a day after President Vladimir V. Putin’s internationally derided declaration that the region where it lies and three others in Ukraine were now part of Russia. . . .

Hours after Ukraine’s defense ministry said its forces were entering the city, Russia’s Ministry of Defense said in it had taken the decision to pull out of Lyman.

“In connection with the creation of a threat of encirclement, the allied troops were withdrawn” from the city to a “more advantageous” location, the ministry said in a statement posted on Telegram. . . .

A senior Ukrainian military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Lyman was “already liberated.”

“A mop-up is ongoing,” the official said. “The Russians have nowhere to run.”<<<

Russia-Ukraine War: Russian Forces Retreat From Lyman (Published 2022)

The loss of the strategic rail hub in the east is particularly poorly timed for the Kremlin after its internationally derided illegal annexation of four Ukrainian regions.

www.nytimes.com

It remains to be seen how many Russian troops actually managed to flee, and how much military equipment was left behind in an usable condition.

 

[mtrycrafts]

Ukrainian forces have reportedly surrounded Lyman and about 5,000 Russian troops are effectively trapped. It looks like this will be another major defeat for the Russians.

>>>Russia has used Lyman as a logistical hub for its operations in the region; its fall would mark Ukraine’s most significant gain since its successful counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region last month.

The head of Luhansk regional military administration Serhiy Hayday also revealed Saturday further details of the Lyman offensive, suggesting Russian forces had offered to retreat, but to no avail from the Ukrainian side.

“Occupiers asked [their command] for possibility to retreat, and they have been refused. Accordingly, they have two options. No, they actually have three options. Try to break through, surrender, or everyone there will die,” Hayday said.

“There are several thousand of them. Yes, about 5,000. There is no exact number yet. Five thousand is still a colossal grouping. There has never been such a large group in the encirclement before. All routes for the supply of ammunition or the retreat of the group are all completely blocked,” he added.<<<

Russian forces retreat from strategic Donetsk city a day after Moscow's annexation of the region | CNN

Russian forces retreated from Lyman, a strategic city for its operations in the east, the Russian defense ministry said Saturday, just a day after Moscow's annexation of the region that's been declared illegal by the West.

www.cnn.com

The other problem is where to put the captured Russians. Ukraine had a problem with all the POWs beforehand, space wise.

 

[TLS Guy]

The other problem is where to put the captured Russians. Ukraine had a problem with all the POWs beforehand, space wise.

I bet they will be begging for asylum with a view to Ukrainian citizenship. If they return to Russia they are likely to be shot, and I bet they know it.

Perfect timing of the Ukrainians as Putin boasted that all of that region covered by his sham referendum would be Russian for ever. Twenty four hours later his is kicked out of a strategic city. Very bad optics, and now he looks the perfect ass he is. The very best antidote to tyrants like Putin is to make fools of them especially regarding a boast.
I do think Ukraine deserves more support now. I am in favor of fast tracking Ukraine into NATO. If Putin can declare those areas Russian, then tit for tat, we can say Ukraine is a NATO county and really back it up.

I think that the time to escalate is now, and really put the boot in on Putin. We don't want to risk him regrouping. Now is the perfect time to go for the jugular and press the advantage Ukraine has given us. I can be certain what Churchill would have ordered in similar circumstances. It would be to press on hard and claim the advantage. If we don't end this now and decisively, then we risk this crisis dragging on causing years of disruption like we have been experiencing.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Here's the latest UK Intelligence update on Ukraine/Lyman.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576445020638482434

 

[Mojo Navigator]

IIRC Putin denied the request of the commander of Russian forces surrounded in Lyman permission to retreat. Less than 24 hours later the Russian MOD ordered the immediate evacuation of all Russian units from the Lyman pocket.

Seems that Putler was over-ruled by his military leaders. This may indicate a significant power shift inside the Kremlin.

 

[TLS Guy]

IIRC Putin denied the request of the commander of Russian forces surrounded in Lyman permission to retreat. Less than 24 hours later the Russian MOD ordered the immediate evacuation of all Russian units from the Lyman pocket.

Seems that Putler was over-ruled by his military leaders. This may indicate a significant power shift inside the Kremlin.

As I said, it is now time to press the advantage. If we don't we stand a good chance that history will condemn us.

 

[Mojo Navigator]

Accelerating NATO membership during a military conflict would be inadvisable and not realistic:

1) NATO has specific requirements for membership that must be achieved prior to acceptance
2) Sweden and Finland have been NATO partners for decades and have applied for accelerated membership and are still awaiting final approval by the NATO members
3) NATO membership is subject to approval of all 30 members, including Viktor Orban's Hungary
4) NATO's leader has publicly committed to the resupply of Ukraine's military for the duration of the conflict which does not need Hungary's approval
5) The Ukrainian military is doing a fine job without NATO troops and they deserve all the accolades even though they are using mostly Soviet Era military equipment
6) Direct NATO involvement would trigger massive Russian mobilization prolonging the conflict and validate the Putin's propaganda paranoia that this is a secret war against the Russian people. Thereby unifying the Russian population. Remember to divide, then conquer.
7) Despite Putin's pre-invasion ultimatums, if Ukraine prevails in the war they will ultimately become either a NATO member or will host the largest US military base outside the USA. Both scenarios are a nightmare for hardcore Russian Imperialists.
8) Direct military involvement by NATO at this stage would be seen as an existential threat to Russia and might provoke a nuclear war. Everyone loses.
9) A slower collapse of the Russian military allows for a power struggle within the Kremlin to play out. This is already occurring as evidenced by the frequent untimely deaths among Oligarchs. Some Oligarchs have private armies of mercenaries all vying for power in a post-Putin Kremlin. Better not to "unify" them. Then watch as the Russian Federation disintegrates.

Allow cooler heads to prevail. The strategy seems to be working. NATO and the USA are preparing for any possible Russian action with an appropriate and devastating response. After all, that is the entire purpose of NATO.

 

[Trell]

2) Sweden and Finland have been NATO partners for decades and have applied for accelerated membership and are still awaiting final approval by the NATO members

Currently only Hungary and Turkey have yet to approve.

NATO PA

NATO Parliamentary Assembly

www.nato-pa.int