On Trump

[GO-NAD!]

He’s using my retirement funds to punish the Chinese government. I know that statement makes no sense but there it is.

The markets have seemed to defy gravity and logic for several months now. I'm not sure what should be more concerning - continuous unjustified gains, or a correction.

 

[Dude#1279435]

I fine it ironic (though not terribly surprising) Trump is asking for the Nobel. The first half of his political career I'd define him as the Great Instigator. Then the rise of the alt-right and J6. Then holding back on Putin only to recently I guess acknowledge he's the problem. Or now trying to bring a peace deal with Netanyahu. Or how about rename it the Dept of War. It's absurd, but than as I've said before , the absurd is the norm.

 

[Mr._Clark]

The markets have seemed to defy gravity and logic for several months now. I'm not sure what should be more concerning - continuous unjustified gains, or a correction.

The market has been frothy, to say the least. It may have been due for a correction, and Trump's statements may have been more of a trigger than an underlying cause. Still, I'd rather have a steady hand (or no hand) at the wheel.

Your post reminded me of the famous "irrational exuberance" statement by Greenspan back in December 1996. Just for the heck of it, I ran the real (inflation adjusted) return for the S&P 500 (with dividend reinvestment) using an online calculator (link below) for a few time periods starting in December 1996. It calculated 8.2% and 5.7% for 5 and 10 years, respectively, and 7.0% for December 1996- September, 2025 (September 2025 is the most recent available) .

That's not to say Greenspan was entirely wrong. Cherry picking dates somewhat, from January 2000 - January 2012 the annualized real average return was -1.4%. The real total return was -15.4%.

For August 1967 - August 1982 the real average return was -2.0%.

I realized many years ago that my ability to predict the timing of the ups and downs is zip, zero, nada.

I'm not disagreeing with you, these are just a couple observations.

S&P 500 Return Calculator, with Dividend Reinvestment

Estimate historical investment performance with the S&P 500 calculator. Show both inflation-adjusted and nominal returns, plus dividends.

dqydj.com

 

[GO-NAD!]

The market has been frothy, to say the least. It may have been due for a correction, and Trump's statements may have been more of a trigger than an underlying cause. Still, I'd rather have a steady hand (or no hand) at the wheel.

Your post reminded me of the famous "irrational exuberance" statement by Greenspan back in December 1996. Just for the heck of it, I ran the real (inflation adjusted) return for the S&P 500 (with dividend reinvestment) using an online calculator (link below) for a few time periods starting in December 1996. It calculated 8.2% and 5.7% for 5 and 10 years, respectively, and 7.0% for December 1996- September, 2025 (September 2025 is the most recent available) .

That's not to say Greenspan was entirely wrong. Cherry picking dates somewhat, from January 2000 - January 2012 the annualized real average return was -1.4%. The real total return was -15.4%.

For August 1967 - August 1982 the real average return was -2.0%.

I realized many years ago that my ability to predict the timing of the ups and downs is zip, zero, nada.

I'm not disagreeing with you, these are just a couple observations.

S&P 500 Return Calculator, with Dividend Reinvestment

Estimate historical investment performance with the S&P 500 calculator. Show both inflation-adjusted and nominal returns, plus dividends.

dqydj.com

Of course, between 1996 and today, there have been some steep climbs followed by steep drops. But, the overall trend has been upwards. That said, as the saying goes, past results do not predict future results.

What concerns me is that the current administration is creating conditions that are not conducive to economic growth.

For example, the US government will be forced to bail out thousands of farmers, costing tens of billions of dollars - all because of market disruptions caused by tariffs.

 

[GO-NAD!]

target practice ...........

Whatever the reasoning, it's unquestionably against international law.