The markets have seemed to defy gravity and logic for several months now. I'm not sure what should be more concerning - continuous unjustified gains, or a correction.
The market has been frothy, to say the least. It may have been due for a correction, and Trump's statements may have been more of a trigger than an underlying cause. Still, I'd rather have a steady hand (or no hand) at the wheel.
Your post reminded me of the famous "irrational exuberance" statement by Greenspan back in December 1996. Just for the heck of it, I ran the real (inflation adjusted) return for the S&P 500 (with dividend reinvestment) using an online calculator (link below) for a few time periods starting in December 1996. It calculated 8.2% and 5.7% for 5 and 10 years, respectively, and 7.0% for December 1996- September, 2025 (September 2025 is the most recent available) .
That's not to say Greenspan was entirely wrong. Cherry picking dates somewhat, from January 2000 - January 2012 the annualized real average return was -1.4%. The real total return was -15.4%.
For August 1967 - August 1982 the real average return was -2.0%.
I realized many years ago that my ability to predict the timing of the ups and downs is zip, zero, nada.
I'm not disagreeing with you, these are just a couple observations.
Estimate historical investment performance with the S&P 500 calculator. Show both inflation-adjusted and nominal returns, plus dividends.
dqydj.com
