H

herbu

Audioholic Samurai
Inside Trump’s frantic attempts to minimize the coronavirus crisis:

"Minutes before President Trump was preparing Wednesday to reassure a skittish nation about the coronavirus threat, he received a piece of crucial information: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had identified in California the first U.S. case of the illness not tied to foreign travel, a sign that the virus’s spread in the United States was likely to explode.​
But when Trump took to the lectern for a news conference intended to bring transparency to the spiraling global crisis, he made no explicit mention of the California case and its implications — and falsely suggested the virus might soon be eradicated in the United States.​
“And again, when you have 15 people — and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero — that’s a pretty good job we’ve done,” he said.​
Trump’s playing down of the California patient at his news conference underscores the administration’s slapdash and often misleading attempts to contain not just the virus, but also potential political damage from the outbreak — which has tanked financial markets, slowed global commerce and killed some 3,000 people worldwide, including the first U.S. death, announced Saturday."​
You people are hilarious! Failure to mention 1 death from the virus is proof of Trump's ill intent, yet mentioning thousands of deaths at the hands of illegal immigrants is proof of his racism. And mentioning millions of dead babies only makes you double down on late term abortions and now even live birth abortions. Buckle up, buttercup. You're not gonna like the next 5 years.
 
R

RedCharles

Full Audioholic
Jerry,
I've got friends like you. There's no point. I know you're type.

Do the research yourself.

I'm on this forum to hear what old guys have to say. I'm pretty certain you're under 50. So, I could care less what you think.
 
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highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
Jerry,
I've got friends like you. There's no point. I know you're type.

I'm on this forum to hear what old guys have to say. I'm pretty certain you're under 50. So, I could care less what you think.
If the media would verify what they report, the news cycle would be very quiet. There's always something that's going to kill us all, according to some and to others, the thought that if humans were as sensitive as some think, we would have died out thousands of years ago. Plagues killed millions, yet here we are. Wars have killed millions, yet here we are. Famine & drought have killed millions, yet here we are. The problem now is that people travel to all parts of the globe in large groups faster than ever and when they're sick, they often say "It's just a cough".

That said, I think an easy-ish way to prevent rampant spread is to avoid crowds, don't touch strangers for a while (until it's indicated that the worst is over) and stay as clean as possible. Wash the food that can be washed, fully cook the rest and stay as healthy as possible in other ways.
 
John Parks

John Parks

Audioholic Samurai
If the media would verify what they report, the news cycle would be very quiet. There's always something that's going to kill us all, according to some and to others, the thought that if humans were as sensitive as some think, we would have died out thousands of years ago. Plagues killed millions, yet here we are. Wars have killed millions, yet here we are. Famine & drought have killed millions, yet here we are. The problem now is that people travel to all parts of the globe in large groups faster than ever and when they're sick, they often say "It's just a cough".

That said, I think an easy-ish way to prevent rampant spread is to avoid crowds, don't touch strangers for a while (until it's indicated that the worst is over) and stay as clean as possible. Wash the food that can be washed, fully cook the rest and stay as healthy as possible in other ways.
Agreed!
1583168650612.png
 
GO-NAD!

GO-NAD!

Audioholic Spartan
...don't touch strangers....
But..but...I just can't help myself! I get a lot of strange looks though...and legal action. :D

In all seriousness though, good advice. We can't emphasize regular, thorough hand-washing enough.
 
R

RedCharles

Full Audioholic
On Twitter, Trevor Bedford said that the genetic make up of the virus is similar to the original Everett Washington case. It's likely that Sars-2 had been spreading since Jan 15th in the Seattle area. 300-500 cases, possibly up to 1500 depending on R0. Bummer.

There's a site that maps the genetic drift of Sars-2, but I've got to find it again. So far, according to experts, there doesn't appear to be a lot of genetic drift. Which means that the 4% zero day CFR in Iran is probably due to fewer cases detected and the quality of Iranian medical care, rather than a more virulent strain. The Korean zero day CFR is the lowest in the world at .6%, which is likely due to a higher detection rate and better medical care. This is good news.

On YouTube, Dr. John Campbell has been saying that people are infectious 12 to 24 hours after infection. At first, I thought he misspoke, but he's said it in multiple videos. Not sure where he got that information yet. This would mean that people are spreading this during most of their incubation period. This is really bad news.
 
mtrycrafts

mtrycrafts

Seriously, I have no life.
for crying out loud, this thread is about the 'c' virus , now we got a freaking History debate !!! As for Berlin and 1944 , if the powers to be would have let Patton do his job.........
Can we also include the others, a, b, e, etc ;) :D
 
mtrycrafts

mtrycrafts

Seriously, I have no life.
Bro, you been here a Long time! since 2004! Are you the oldest member?
:D
Don't think so. Gene was here, his web site. There were others as I wasn't alone, no one to talk to. ;)

But, yes, been here for a few days now.:D
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Seriously, I have no life.
On Twitter, Trevor Bedford said that the genetic make up of the virus is similar to the original Everett Washington case. It's likely that Sars-2 had been spreading since Jan 15th in the Seattle area. 300-500 cases, possibly up to 1500 depending on R0. Bummer.

There's a site that maps the genetic drift of Sars-2, but I've got to find it again. So far, according to experts, there doesn't appear to be a lot of genetic drift. Which means that the 4% zero day CFR in Iran is probably due to fewer cases detected and the quality of Iranian medical care, rather than a more virulent strain. The Korean zero day CFR is the lowest in the world at .6%, which is likely due to a higher detection rate and better medical care. This is good news.

On YouTube, Dr. John Campbell has been saying that people are infectious 12 to 24 hours after infection. At first, I thought he misspoke, but he's said it in multiple videos. Not sure where he got that information yet. This would mean that people are spreading this during most of their incubation period. This is really bad news.
We have known for weeks now that people are infectious long before they develop symptoms, which is actually common with viral infections.

The worst news is that many return to shedding virus after recovering and testing negative, to later test positive.

The world response and the US response has in my view been totally inadequate. It is now I think futile to try and recover from these miss steps.

I think a high mortality pandemic is now inevitable. Even the most optimistic experts now predict a 1% mortality. I think that is too low on current data. I think it will be 2 to 3% at least and much higher in us elderly folks, especially ones like me with a complex medical history. I think from the inadequate steps taken to slow the spread we will run out of ICU beds and ventilators relatively early in the game, and the mortality will rise to serious levels. On the bright side this may solve the projected deficits in the social security budget!
 
H

herbu

Audioholic Samurai
I think a high mortality pandemic is now inevitable.
Pretty pessimistic... but I suppose you will define "high mortality pandemic" any way you want. So far the US has seen 6 deaths from Coronavirus, and 18,000 from the flu just this year. In January the Left criticized Trump for restricting air travel... now you criticize him for not doing enough. You will criticize him no matter what he does or what happens. As a kid, I was taught a lesson by Chicken Little and The Little Boy Who Cried Wolf. It still applies today. I believe we should take reasonable actions, but Miami is not underwater, polar bears are not extinct, and we have a loooong way to go before this virus becomes our worst problem.
 
GO-NAD!

GO-NAD!

Audioholic Spartan
Pretty pessimistic... but I suppose you will define "high mortality pandemic" any way you want. So far the US has seen 6 deaths from Coronavirus, and 18,000 from the flu just this year. In January the Left criticized Trump for restricting air travel... now you criticize him for not doing enough. You will criticize him no matter what he does or what happens. As a kid, I was taught a lesson by Chicken Little and The Little Boy Who Cried Wolf. It still applies today. I believe we should take reasonable actions, but Miami is not underwater, polar bears are not extinct, and we have a loooong way to go before this virus becomes our worst problem.
The current mortality rate is about 20 times higher than the flu. It's simply due to prevalence that there are higher total numbers of deaths due to flu. There's no reason right now to think that it can't become as widespread as flu.

Doc didn't mention POTUS in his post, so why the straw man argument?
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
Doc didn't mention POTUS in his post, so why the straw man argument?
Not only that, but anyone who thinks TLSGuy is part of "the Left" needs to go to Walmart and buy themselves a clue.
 
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killdozzer

killdozzer

Audioholic Samurai
I think a high mortality pandemic is now inevitable.
:D:D
At a first glance I thought you wrote "high morality pandemic" and I began banging my head thinking what did he mean by that. I saw an article a few days back about how the biggest problem will be racial tension towards Asians and I thought perhaps it's that...

It's 9 confirmed cases in Croatia, but so far it was praises all across for the organization. Apparently several crisis headquarters are on full alert for over a month.
 
R

RedCharles

Full Audioholic
We have known for weeks now that people are infectious long before they develop symptoms, which is actually common with viral infections.
I figured it was a day before symptoms, like the flu, not 12 to 24 hours after exposure. If people are spreading this for days pre-symptomatically, how can the CDC stop it? In my opinion, this is virus is cheating and needs to start playing fair. I'm not sure that an adequate response is even possible without an anti-viral and an anti-body test.

I'm hoping warmer weather will slow the growth of this disease; currently, we're not seeing exponential growth in warmer climates. I'm also hoping that Gilead's Remdesivir works, so that in the fall, when we get a second wave, we'll be ready for the big time. Or this thing is unstoppable. In any case, take care of yourself TLS.

I saw that this virus killed a 22 year old Iranian female who was on the national soccer team. Obviously, she was in great cardiovascular health. Scary stuff.

This is a link to the "family tree" of Sars-2, which shows it's genetic drift. Pretty cool stuff.
 
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R

RedCharles

Full Audioholic
"Based on data collected thus far, scientists believe the newly identified virus, known officially as COVID-19, does not transmit as efficiently as influenza. With the common flu, people who are infected but not yet sick are "major drivers" of contagion, Tedros said, "which does not appear to be the case with COVID-19. In China, the epicenter of the global outbreak, less than 1% of reported cases are people who aren't symptomatic and most of them develop symptoms within two days, according to Tedros. "

If this is right, then there's a chance that containment is possible.

 
Verdinut

Verdinut

Audioholic Spartan
"Based on data collected thus far, scientists believe the newly identified virus, known officially as COVID-19, does not transmit as efficiently as influenza. With the common flu, people who are infected but not yet sick are "major drivers" of contagion, Tedros said, "which does not appear to be the case with COVID-19. In China, the epicenter of the global outbreak, less than 1% of reported cases are people who aren't symptomatic and most of them develop symptoms within two days, according to Tedros. "

If this is right, then there's a chance that containment is possible.

I don't think that there's a great risk of pandemic proportion with this coronavirus. Most of the evolution out of China has so far been limited to Iran, South Korea and Italy.
At present, it seems to be contained in China and most new reported cases emerge from outside that country. Most affected people in other countries including Canada had traveled to Iran.
The SARS coronavirus was actually more deadly with a 10% death rate as opposed to about 3% for the current one.
 

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