GO-NAD!

GO-NAD!

Audioholic Spartan
Very glad to hear you got your first vaccine dose. I'm trying to say jab instead of dose, shot, or injection. It is simpler to say, but I just can't get used to it.
The UK uses some medical terms that can seem a bit odd to North Americans. A friend of mine worked as a nurse in northern England for a couple of years. One day, she was discussing, with other hospital staff, a patient who had experienced a seizure. One of the other staff responded, "Oooo, don't you talk grand! We would just say they had a fit".

Do you remember the time Obama was criticized for saying the word "spaz"? Back when I was a very young sailor, one of my earliest port visits was in Southampton, England. I was walking through the city centre and passed a charity office with this sign above the door - "Spastics Society". Being young and immature, I found this hilarious (I've grown up a little bit since then). That said, they changed the name a few years ago...
 
highfigh

highfigh

Audioholic Overlord
This is especially true if borders are not shut tight. This is decimating the airline, cruise and travel industry.
But if the US shuts its borders, immigrants can't enter and Ted Cruz won't be able to take a quick vacation......
 
highfigh

highfigh

Audioholic Overlord
The UK uses some medical terms that can seem a bit odd to North Americans. A friend of mine worked as a nurse in northern England for a couple of years. One day, she was discussing, with other hospital staff, a patient who had experienced a seizure. One of the other staff responded, "Oooo, don't you talk grand! We would just say they had a fit".

Do you remember the time Obama was criticized for saying the word "spaz"? Back when I was a very young sailor, one of my earliest port visits was in Southampton, England. I was walking through the city centre and passed a charity office with this sign above the door - "Spastics Society". Being young and immature, I found this hilarious (I've grown up a little bit since then). That said, they changed the name a few years ago...
Nice one, Spaz.

Brits also use 'mental' in the way we did as kids- "Are you mental"? was something we would ask if one of our friends would say or do something goofy. Can't say that now, since the PC Police came along.

I know someone whose high school nickname was 'Spaz'.
 
Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Warlord
Do you remember the time Obama was criticized for saying the word "spaz"? Back when I was a very young sailor, one of my earliest port visits was in Southampton, England. I was walking through the city centre and passed a charity office with this sign above the door - "Spastics Society". Being young and immature, I found this hilarious (I've grown up a little bit since then). That said, they changed the name a few years ago...
In the 1960s when I was a teenager, the words 'spaz', 'spazzed out', and 'spaz attack' were popular slang in the USA. They were mostly sophmoric attempts at poking fun at awkward teenage behavior. Like most slang, they had a limited life span. Decades later, the slang police made those terms verboten. Such efforts are misguided and silly because they had already passed out of use.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Chief
According to a WaPo article, one of the bottlenecks for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is the supply of lipid nanoparticles. It will be impressive if Pfizer is able to produce 2 billion doses by the end of the year (Of course, this is coming from a guy who can't count to 21 with his clothes on).

>>>On Jan. 21, the new president’s second day in office, the Biden administration issued a report that cited shortages of lipid nanoparticles among “urgent gaps” in the vaccine supply chain. . . . Pfizer said in response to questions that it has made unspecified changes to its facilities and manufacturing that will allow it to double vaccine output. It said it will produce 2 billion doses by the end of the year. <<<

 
cpp

cpp

Audioholic Field Marshall
Regarding the mutations of Covid "
Florida continues to outpace rest of country with new mutant COVID-19 cases
419 cases of the UK variant reported in Florida

Its notes the sunshine state has twice that of the UK, and we can thank tourism for that, as we still let people in from other countries just to keep those $$ coming in. Health be dam appears to be our state govt attitude.

Well I get my 1st shot next Tuesday.
 
Mikado463

Mikado463

Audioholic Samurai
I thought the only 'mutant' in Florida was Trump's return a couple weeks back ....... :eek:
 
Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Warlord
I thought the only 'mutant' in Florida was Trump's return a couple weeks back ....... :eek:
The return of the Super Spreader In Chief to Florida, would by itself be enough to explain those 419 new cases of the variant coronavirus.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Chief
Regarding the mutations of Covid "
Florida continues to outpace rest of country with new mutant COVID-19 cases
419 cases of the UK variant reported in Florida

Its notes the sunshine state has twice that of the UK, and we can thank tourism for that, as we still let people in from other countries just to keep those $$ coming in. Health be dam appears to be our state govt attitude.

Well I get my 1st shot next Tuesday.
I'm tempted to take a pot shot at Desantis, but I have a feeling the UK variant is going to be everywhere soon enough.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Chief
Regarding the mutations of Covid "
Florida continues to outpace rest of country with new mutant COVID-19 cases
419 cases of the UK variant reported in Florida
There's a link at that website to an article stating that the Brazil P.1 variant has also been identified in Florida. This is apparently the variant that has been wreaking havoc in Manaus Brazil for the past two months.


The P.1 lineage was first discovered in Manaus. In a preliminary study, this lineage reached a high frequency (42%, 13 of 31) among genome samples obtained from COVID-19 cases in December, 2020, but was absent in 26 samples collected in Manaus between March and November, 2020. Thus far, little is known about the transmissibility of the P.1 lineage, but it shares several independently acquired mutations with the B.1.1.7 (N501Y) and the B.1.325 (K417N/T, E484K, N501Y) lineages circulating in the UK and South Africa, which seem to have increased transmissibility.<<<

 
D

Dude#1279435

Senior Audioholic

Edit: some good stuff in the comments section, but I really don't understand the science and will let other reply.

The best sciency one I could find.....

If 2/3 of the country had been infected, on top of the 15% that have already had at least one vaccine dose, you would notice. Case rates would be dropping so fast it would make your head spin. While the last five weeks have been encouraging, positive news, we are still getting ~500,000 confirmed cases a week, which is not consistent with an R0 just above 1.0 and a population at large that is less than 1/3 susceptible.

I agree the proportion that's been infected is probably much larger than the ~10% that's confirmed with tests, but there's a lot of room between 10% and 67%.
 
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M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Chief

Edit: some good stuff in the comments section, but I really don't understand the science and will let other reply.

The best sciency one I could find.....

If 2/3 of the country had been infected, on top of the 15% that have already had at least one vaccine dose, you would notice. Case rates would be dropping so fast it would make your head spin. While the last five weeks have been encouraging, positive news, we are still getting ~500,000 confirmed cases a week, which is not consistent with an R0 just above 1.0 and a population at large that is less than 1/3 susceptible.

I agree the proportion that's been infected is probably much larger than the ~10% that's confirmed with tests, but there's a lot of room between 10% and 67%.
This strikes me as the latest iteration of shell game that goes something like this: "Let's concoct a very high estimate of the number of people who have already been infected because no one really knows for sure and our number cannot be disproven, and our estimate implies that the infection fatality rate is low, and it also implies we're close to herd immunity so there's really no problem!" In this case the author rearranges the steps a little, but it's the same basic game.

From the WSJ opinion piece: "The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection."

A google search reveals that , low and behold, this is the exact number Ioannidis came up with: "The median infection fatality rate across all 51 locations was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%)."(link below). Ioannidis is always a good source of estimates if one want to play this game. In March of 2020 Ioannidis estimated there might be a total of 10,000 COVID deaths in the U.S.: "If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths." (2nd link below)(granted, he used this as an example, but why use an example if you think it's completely ridiculous?)

With reference to the Imperial College of London article (third link below), the infection fatality rate tends to much higher in high income countries with older populations:

"Using these age-specific estimates, we estimate the overall IFR in a typical low-income country, with a population structure skewed towards younger individuals, to be 0.23% (0.14-0.42 95% prediction interval range). In contrast, in a typical high income country, with a greater concentration of elderly individuals, we estimate the overall IFR to be 1.15% (0.78-1.79 95% prediction interval range)."

In other words, the author is probably off by a factor of about 5 with regards to the infection fatality rate in the U.S., meaning he is also off by a factor of 5 with regards to the percentage of the U.S. population that has already been infected (using his methodology). This means that only about 1/5 of 2/3 of the U.S. population (i.e. 13%) has already been infected (again, using his methodology). The latest number for total reported cases in the U.S. is about 28 million (fourth link below), which is about 8.4% of the population. There's no doubt that the number of infections is more than this, but it provides a starting point to look at the number of infections.

I suspect that more than 13% of the U.S. population has already been infected, but this is probably a better estimate if one wants to use the author's IFR approach. Given the uncertainty in IFR estimates, the author's approach to estimating the total number of infections strikes me as being highly speculative.

The CDC estimated 83 million total infections (about 25%) through the end of last year (fourth link below). I suspect this involves a large SWAG factor as well, but it seems plausible. Even if 30-35% of the population has immunity from prior infections or vaccines, it's well short of herd immunity.

I suppose it's possible that there will be a huge surge in cases that will lead to herd immunity by April, but that's clearly not what the author is predicting.

I'd concede that predictions are difficult, especially when they involve the future.






 
Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Warlord
Edit: some good stuff in the comments section, but I really don't understand the science and will let other reply.
There is no science to understand in that Wall St Journal article. It's all speculation, based on some assumptions snatched out of thin air. It's little better than mental masturbation.
 
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Gmoney

Gmoney

Audioholic Ninja
I don't care how many of my posts you mark dumb. This response is just plain dumb.
Just messing with ya!:p That shot is NOT SAFE! Whats dumb about even one that dies from taking that shot? That would be like You crossing the street and 1 in 10 got hit by a car and gets killed.
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
Just messing with ya!:p That shot is NOT SAFE! Whats dumb about even one that dies from taking that shot? That would be like You crossing the street and 1 in 10 get hit by a car and gets killed.
One in 10? I have two words of advice for you: remedial math.
 

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