It's not confused at all - DVD player sales will closely drive levels of software sales. We simply integrate both numbers in the article. You can't possibly think they are unrelated or lack correlation?
Come on Clint! Last year DVD players finally surpassed the number of VHS players on the market.
By the statement you JUST made, this means that last year was likely the first year that DVD outsold VHS.
In fact, it was about FIVE years ago, about five years into the DVD market at which point DVD sales surpassed those of VHS, and it is consistent with the current adoption levels, and the price drops of Blu-ray have been equal to or surpassed DVD.
Sorry that we're not drinking the kool aid on this... in fact, we seem to be one of the ONLY magazines that is taking such a skeptical approach to Blu-ray as a replacement to DVD... um, mostly because the studios don't seem to be taking any steps to market it as a replacement technology...
Strange that Blu-ray studios have stated openly that the profits they are seeing from BD are making up for the sales decreases they have seen from DVD. Don't get me wrong, DVD is king - and will be for a while more. But, it seems that people are ignoring the target numbers which BD manufacturers, and studios have been shooting for, and hitting. They are on track to see 8% of disc based revenue by years end, which represents a 400% increase in their market share. BD has seen the jump to near 100% support of the product, and we will see all the big blockbusters this year get released with DVD.
But, at 4 or 5% market share, I hardly think that studios are quite ready to start releasing Blu-ray a week or two ahead of DVD titles to help spur additional Blu-ray sales...
On the other hand, I think by next holiday season, with the far higher profts studios get on BD titles, they may see 25% or so of their sales coming via Blu-ray and elect to do exactly that.
This site, as I've pointed out, has maintained far more than skepticism of the BD format, and while AH has clearly favored HD DVD, it is appalling, and remains so to me, that the site continues to nay-say the best HD video quality currently available on the market, and doesn't get behind the format openly with more player reviews, and title reviews, in combination with audio reviews of the products to see how they stack up.
If we're wrong, I'll eat crow. If we're right then I hardly think we'll be even partially responsible given the vast sea of opposing viewpoints.
There are few opposing viewpoints except from those who work at Toshiba and are promoting their own product. Retailers are behind Blu-ray. All studios are behind Blu-ray. Major publications, like Home Theater have switched to exclusively reviewing Blu-ray titles, we are seeing BD players put front and center in retail stores, and we are seeing distributors completely unable to get stock for BD players such as Denon's $2,000 3800 player.
When all indicators point to a product doing well, it sure seems like AH has taken a stance to push the format down whenever possible.
Maybe I'm missing the pro reviews of HD audio discs released on BD to this point... Maybe I'm missing the reviews of the myriad of Blu-ray players currently available, including the just about to hit the floor BD50 from Panasonic.
I personally just don't get it. The numbers don't support the attitude presented. The studio, CE manufacturers, and retailers certainly don't either.
So, at what point does someone eat crow? I mean, if I tell you that VHS doesn't have a chance in the format war, then I'm right - because DVD came along and best it. If I tell you DVD doesn't have a chance, then BD or something else will beat it. If we say BD doesn't have a chance, then you better believe something will replace it some day. But, it sure doesn't seem like BD is in a world of hurt with the numbers it has been able to put up to this point.