Blu-ray to Outsell DVD in 2012?

A

admin

Audioholics Robot
Staff member
There are two ways to look at a report filed by the Entertainment Merchant Association: 1) Somebody is really excited and optimistic about Blu-ray, or 2) The fact that everyone already owns a DVD player means that it will still take 4 more years before consumers are buying into new technology at a rate that exceeds the replacement rate for set-top DVD players - presumably including existing and new game consoles which sport the embedded technology.


Discuss "Blu-ray to Outsell DVD in 2012?" here. Read the article.
 
Wayde Robson

Wayde Robson

Audioholics Anchorman
I remember when the year 2001 seemed so far away. When I was a kid we had visions of spaceships taking the general public on vacations to the moon for a long weekend.

I suppose Blu-ray could overtake 2012, it's a long way away in tech industry time. Who knows - you might want to book your vacation on the moon.
 
S

swestbom

Audioholic Intern
Backbone needed

The industry needs to get a bit smarter and phase out DVD sales, in the mean time they should put out new releases as Blu-ray discs first and have DVDs lag by a couple months.

They have to cannibalize their own DVD sales with Blu-ray sales before the internet does it for them.
 
BMXTRIX

BMXTRIX

Audioholic Warlord
There are two ways to look at a report filed by the Entertainment Merchant Association: 1) Somebody is really excited and optimistic about Blu-ray, or 2) The fact that everyone already owns a DVD player means that it will still take 4 more years before consumers are buying into new technology at a rate that exceeds the replacement rate for set-top DVD players - presumably including existing and new game consoles which sport the embedded technology.
The analysis of Audioholics on this seems to be a bit confused. The article does not claim BD players will be outselling DVD players, but makes the claim that BD MOVIES - the software - will be outselling DVD titles.

This is a huge feat as it is a comparison of a new technology generating movie sales against a technology that is alread fully saturated.

It should also be pointed out that the timeline for this is nearly identical to the timeline that DVD took for DVD title sales to surpass those of the VHS format. About 5 years from format launch.

Since I have read rants on this site about why BD would fail as a format, it seems to me that this piece of information, for a reputable company, is in stark contrast to claims made earlier here, and supports the concept that BD is very much on track to be the next dominant format on a timeline that is very much realistic instead of mythical.

Some idiots have made claims that BD should outsell DVD within just a year or two of launch, even though the same people are well aware that BD's most significant improvement is simply audio and video qualtiy. Why should it be expected that when it took DVD, which beat the crud out of VHS in almost all aspects, a good 5+ years to outsell the movies, that BD would be capable of doing it in less time?

I think it may even be optomistic, but not impossible for those figures to be realized by that time, and for a lot of people all over the net, it would still suprise them to see BD around at all.
 
Clint DeBoer

Clint DeBoer

Banned
The analysis of Audioholics on this seems to be a bit confused. The article does not claim BD players will be outselling DVD players, but makes the claim that BD MOVIES - the software - will be outselling DVD titles.
It's not confused at all - DVD player sales will closely drive levels of software sales. We simply integrate both numbers in the article. You can't possibly think they are unrelated or lack correlation?

Sorry that we're not drinking the kool aid on this... in fact, we seem to be one of the ONLY magazines that is taking such a skeptical approach to Blu-ray as a replacement to DVD... um, mostly because the studios don't seem to be taking any steps to market it as a replacement technology...

If we're wrong, I'll eat crow. If we're right then I hardly think we'll be even partially responsible given the vast sea of opposing viewpoints.
 
A

aarond

Full Audioholic
Sorry that we're not drinking the kool aid on this... in fact, we seem to be one of the ONLY magazines that is taking such a skeptical approach to Blu-ray as a replacement to DVD... um, mostly because the studios don't seem to be taking any steps to market it as a replacement technology...
why would the studios do anything to piss off the people that spent 16 billion dollars last year on dvds. bluray is for the electronics industry not the studios. with dvd players at a saturation point the manufacturers need something to take up the slack. when the prices come down joe & mary sixpack will start looking at bluray for replacement players, but they're not rushing out to get one just because.
we are going to buy the movie no matter what format it is and thats all the studios care about
 
J

JackT

Audioholic
It's not confused at all - DVD player sales will closely drive levels of software sales. We simply integrate both numbers in the article. You can't possibly think they are unrelated or lack correlation?

Sorry that we're not drinking the kool aid on this... in fact, we seem to be one of the ONLY magazines that is taking such a skeptical approach to Blu-ray as a replacement to DVD... um, mostly because the studios don't seem to be taking any steps to market it as a replacement technology...

If we're wrong, I'll eat crow. If we're right then I hardly think we'll be even partially responsible given the vast sea of opposing viewpoints.
I'm down with the skepticism thing, except for the fact that you seemed MUCH less skeptical of HD-DVD. The only time Audioholics ever bothers to write something about Bluray is to write something negative. This signifies a bit more than healthy skepticism, IMO.
 
BMXTRIX

BMXTRIX

Audioholic Warlord
It's not confused at all - DVD player sales will closely drive levels of software sales. We simply integrate both numbers in the article. You can't possibly think they are unrelated or lack correlation?
Come on Clint! Last year DVD players finally surpassed the number of VHS players on the market.

By the statement you JUST made, this means that last year was likely the first year that DVD outsold VHS.

In fact, it was about FIVE years ago, about five years into the DVD market at which point DVD sales surpassed those of VHS, and it is consistent with the current adoption levels, and the price drops of Blu-ray have been equal to or surpassed DVD.

Sorry that we're not drinking the kool aid on this... in fact, we seem to be one of the ONLY magazines that is taking such a skeptical approach to Blu-ray as a replacement to DVD... um, mostly because the studios don't seem to be taking any steps to market it as a replacement technology...
Strange that Blu-ray studios have stated openly that the profits they are seeing from BD are making up for the sales decreases they have seen from DVD. Don't get me wrong, DVD is king - and will be for a while more. But, it seems that people are ignoring the target numbers which BD manufacturers, and studios have been shooting for, and hitting. They are on track to see 8% of disc based revenue by years end, which represents a 400% increase in their market share. BD has seen the jump to near 100% support of the product, and we will see all the big blockbusters this year get released with DVD.

But, at 4 or 5% market share, I hardly think that studios are quite ready to start releasing Blu-ray a week or two ahead of DVD titles to help spur additional Blu-ray sales...

On the other hand, I think by next holiday season, with the far higher profts studios get on BD titles, they may see 25% or so of their sales coming via Blu-ray and elect to do exactly that.

This site, as I've pointed out, has maintained far more than skepticism of the BD format, and while AH has clearly favored HD DVD, it is appalling, and remains so to me, that the site continues to nay-say the best HD video quality currently available on the market, and doesn't get behind the format openly with more player reviews, and title reviews, in combination with audio reviews of the products to see how they stack up.

If we're wrong, I'll eat crow. If we're right then I hardly think we'll be even partially responsible given the vast sea of opposing viewpoints.
There are few opposing viewpoints except from those who work at Toshiba and are promoting their own product. Retailers are behind Blu-ray. All studios are behind Blu-ray. Major publications, like Home Theater have switched to exclusively reviewing Blu-ray titles, we are seeing BD players put front and center in retail stores, and we are seeing distributors completely unable to get stock for BD players such as Denon's $2,000 3800 player.

When all indicators point to a product doing well, it sure seems like AH has taken a stance to push the format down whenever possible.

Maybe I'm missing the pro reviews of HD audio discs released on BD to this point... Maybe I'm missing the reviews of the myriad of Blu-ray players currently available, including the just about to hit the floor BD50 from Panasonic.

I personally just don't get it. The numbers don't support the attitude presented. The studio, CE manufacturers, and retailers certainly don't either.

So, at what point does someone eat crow? I mean, if I tell you that VHS doesn't have a chance in the format war, then I'm right - because DVD came along and best it. If I tell you DVD doesn't have a chance, then BD or something else will beat it. If we say BD doesn't have a chance, then you better believe something will replace it some day. But, it sure doesn't seem like BD is in a world of hurt with the numbers it has been able to put up to this point.
 
J

JackT

Audioholic
I agree with many of the points BMX made in the above post.
 
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