Jeez! I turn my back for a few hours...
Hmmm, where to begin....
Well yes, my points are purely speculative. But, can anyone seriously argue that an exponential increase in the number of civilians carrying firearms in public will not result in an increase in accidental discharges and mistaken (a la Zimmerman) shootings? That would just defy the laws of probability. A statistician could probably calculate the number of innocent lives saved vs the increase in lives lost by accident. But I'm not a statistician...
I was simply trying to counter the "if only an armed upstanding citizen had been present" argument that gets tossed around when these incidents happen. That, of course, is even
more speculative, because the statement is made each time as it might've pertained to a specific incident. I have the law of probability on my side.
In order for there to be a
reasonable chance of someone like the Aurora shooter being intercepted by an armed civilian would require an almost incalculable increase in publicly armed civilians.
I'm not arguing against protecting yourself and your family from criminals
at home . I just have concerns about so many people being armed in public. I'm retired military. I'm accustomed to being in the presence of armed people whose training and motivation I am familiar and comfortable with. If I was in the public presence of an armed civilian who I don't know, I would not be at all comfortable with that.
I don't know what his training or motivation is. You could say that if the firearm is concealed, I won't know that it is present and have no reason for discomfort. Well, the "ignorance is bliss" argument isn't much comfort to me.
Just for arguments sake, consider armed civilians in every single crowd, in every single venue, 24/7/365. That would be millions, upon millions of gatherings. How many accidental or mistaken shootings would occur every year in the USA? I'm pretty certain that it would dwarf - by a wide margin - incidents such as this. It's just the laws of probability.
That's pure speculation, and doesn't prove anything. This can only be backed up by facts in where you look at number of armed people at events vs accidental shootings vs murders prevented (which we will never know). However, I find this whole argument flawed because all it is saying is that accidents will go up with more armed citizens, which may be true, but that doesn't mean it's a bad thing. How many people would be killed in car accidents if nobody had a car? Over 30,000 people a year less. That's not the case though, and it doesn't stop you from getting in your car and driving. What do you do though? You practice safe driving habits and are very aware of your surroundings. The same goes for carrying a gun. Like driving, it is a huge responsibility and shouldn't be taken lightly.
Yes, I am speculating. And, I'm not trying to prove anything. However, if you increase the number of armed civilians in public by an exponential amount you
will see a proportional increase in accidents. That is guar-own-teed! As to the cost vs benefit, I couldn't hazard a guess. I just would not assume that there would be a net benefit, that's all I'm saying.
The likelihood of innocent bystanders being shot by somebody trying to take down the lunatic is pretty high as well. I would think that the probability of a lawsuit in such a case is about 101%. Of course, a possible future lawsuit isn't something one can really worry about in the moment. I'm just sayin'...
You can't say that. Can't. You have nothing to back that statement up except speculation. What if there was nobody between the armed patron and the shooter? What if? There are too many variables to be so sure that someone else would have been shot.
I'd rather be sued by some yuppy than be dead.
Yes, I can say that - I just did.
I should've been more clear though. I was thinking about the situation in Aurora. In a crowded theatre like that? Yeah, I stand by what I said. As has been mentioned, pistols are notoriously inaccurate. As for "What if there was nobody between the armed patron and the shooter?". Well, a person needn't be between both shooters to be in danger - they only need to be in the
vicinity. I'm a very good shot with a rifle. My experience with pistols is pretty limited. Just enough to tell me that they
are inaccurate. From what I've seen and read of gangbanger shootings, they all seem to think the movies are a reflection of real life.
I think most people on this forum know otherwise. With more practice, I know I'd become pretty proficient, but I just ain't that interested. It would take a lot of practice, i.e. time and expense, to be a good pistol shot. More than the majority (speculation, of course
) of pistol owners would be willing or able to endure. What I could never know is, how I would respond in such a situation - until it happened.
And yes, I agree - I'd rather be sued than shot. I was just pointing it out.
Tomorrow, the data you quote relates to overall gun use in self-defense. I was referring specifically to carrying fireams in public places.
I believe, as oft stated by a superb friend, Col. Jeff Cooper, recently passed...
"An armed society is a polite society".
Really? To me, an armed society is one that is afraid of itself.
What it boils down to is that being in the presence of armed civilians wherever I went in public, would
not make me feel safer.
Perhaps I'm looking at this issue from the perspective of living in a society that doesn't suffer from gun crime to the same extent as in the US. That has been changing in recent years though. More and more guns are being smuggled in from the US.
So, although the overall crime rate is dropping, gun crime is almost unique in that it is rising. Still much lower than the US though...