Ukraine – Russia … not more of the last thread

[Mikado463]

This is annoying. Basically, large numbers of computer chips and other goods are still flowing into Russia despite the sanctions.

Perhaps the U.S. should start sending them faulty chips.

>>>In March this year, a new firm appeared in Turkey’s corporate registry. Azu International Ltd Sti described itself as a wholesale trader of IT products, and a week later began shipping U.S. computer parts to Russia.

Business was brisk, Russian customs records show. The United States and the EU had recently restricted sales of sensitive technology to Russia because of its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, and many Western tech companies had suspended all dealings with Moscow. . . .

Azu International is an example of how supply channels to Russia have remained open despite Western export restrictions and manufacturer bans. At least $2.6 billion of computer and other electronic components flowed into Russia in the seven months to Oct. 31, Russian customs records show. At least $777 million of these products were made by Western firms whose chips have been found in Russian weapons systems: America’s Intel Corp, Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD), Texas Instruments Inc and Analog Devices Inc., and Germany’s Infineon AG.<<<

The supply chain that keeps tech flowing to Russia

As Western countries have tightened restrictions on tech exports to Russia, some suppliers have found new ways of doing business with Moscow.

www.reuters.com

Yeah and wouldn't you know, we just gave the Ruskies their favorite Black Market Arms dealer back to them, brilliant !

 

[Mr._Clark]

Elon Musk is claimed to have blocked two-factor authentication for Ukrainian Twitter accounts.

If true this is bad but not surprising coming from him.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602924811835031558

I'm not 100% sure what the "real" story is, but it might have been due to a bungled attempt to rid twitter of bots, not an effort to target users in Ukraine.

>>>Around midnight Saturday, the world's second-richest person tweeted: "The bots are in for a surprise tomorrow."

Hours later, the main telecom providers in India and Russia – plus the second-biggest in Indonesia – were all blocked from Twitter.

Roughly 30 mobile carriers, primarily in eastern Asia, were all cut off from the app as part of Musk's attempt to limit spam.<<<

Elon Musk tried to get rid of Twitter bots by blocking hundreds of thousands of accounts, but accidentally impacted many legitimate users

The main telecom providers in India and Russia were all blocked from Twitter before employees reversed the block due to complaints, Platformer reported.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Mojo Navigator]

In my opinion:

In retrospect, Putin has been planing WW3 for 20 years. He tested Western resolve and unity in 2008 and 2014. And the West failed to unite, sending him a clear signal. For a decade he worked to undermine all Western organizations that might oppose his plan for world domination. Russian intelligence departments funded and worked secretly to advance Brexit, dissolve NATO and the EU, support MAGA, interfere in elections, discredit the concept of democracy, promote right wing political movements, sabotage undersea telecommunications cables, engage in cyber warfare, deprive potential adversaries of energy supplies and promote Western leaders perceived to be indebted to Putin or easily corruptible (Hungary and the orange guy).

His overall strategy appears to be a combination of Stalin and Hitler's WW2 plans. Nothing original and entirely predictable. Overall, Russian military doctrine doesn't appear to evolved much over the past 3 centuries.

What captured my attention was the article below:

Neo-Nazi Russian militia appeals for intelligence on Nato member states

Move by Task Force Rusich raises fears of rogue paramilitary attacks on Baltic nations of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia

www.theguardian.com

This is exactly what was done to the Baltic States in 1939-40.

From this perspective looking back over the past 12 months much of the news reporting from Europe makes much more sense as those countries that would face a Russian invasion rapidly re-positioned themselves in preparation. The intelligence that was leaked in the article above was, no doubt, available to the Western Alliance many months ago. There has been a consistent leak of Kremlin plans for several months that have been leaked to the public. Obviously, provided Western Intelligence by a mole.

It also justified the rapid deployment of additional combat-ready US military forces to Eastern Europe. NATO Secretary General basically warns the World that Russia had anticipated a much wider war in its planning. Putin calculated that European democracies would fall like dominoes after a rapid conquest of Ukraine and Moldova. Putin would install puppet regimes in non-combatant countries (read MAGA).

NATO chief fears Ukraine war could become a wider conflict

The head of NATO has expressed worry that the fighting in Ukraine could spin out of control and become a war between Russia and NATO

abcnews.go.com

I repeat, this is only my opinion but it is not difficult to "connect the dots" looking back a year. There are many news articles supporting my hypothesis, too numerous to include here. YMMV

 

[Swerd]

In retrospect, Putin has been planing WW3 for 20 years. He tested Western resolve and unity in 2008 and 2014. And the West failed to unite, sending him a clear signal. For a decade he worked to undermine all Western organizations that might oppose his plan for world domination. Russian intelligence departments funded and worked secretly to advance Brexit, dissolve NATO and the EU, support MAGA, interfere in elections, discredit the concept of democracy, promote right wing political movements, sabotage undersea telecommunications cables, engage in cyber warfare, deprive potential adversaries of energy supplies and promote Western leaders perceived to be indebted to Putin or easily corruptible (Hungary and the orange guy).

You might find your thoughts are right in line with the original post in this thread.

Ukraine – Russia … not more of the last thread

This morning I read an interesting column in the Washington Post by David Von Drehle. He writes on international affairs. I wanted to add it to the old Russia - Ukraine thread, only to realize it had been locked. I hope my effort here to revive the subject doesn't result in the same ignorant...

forums.audioholics.com

 

[Mikado463]

Given PutNuts handling of Ukraine an attack on NATO, at least in a conventional sense, would likely not go very well I suspect.

 

[Trell]

Given PutNuts handling of Ukraine an attack on NATO, at least in a conventional sense, would likely not go very well I suspect.

It was surprising to many that the Russian armed forces are so bad as they’ve shown themselves to be in combat.

Still a menace and will be for a long time.

 

[Trell]

A recent survey of EU citizens support for Ukraine:

>>>74% of EU citizens approve of the European Union's support for Ukraine following Russia's invasion, according to the survey conducted between 12 October and 7 November 2022. In all EU Member States, a majority of citizens approve of the EU’s support, with highest support levels shown in Sweden (97%), Finland (95%), the Netherlands (93%), Portugal (92%), and Denmark (92%). Ten months into the war in Ukraine, support for the concrete measures taken by the EU – such as sanctions against the Russian government or financial, military or humanitarian support to Ukraine – continues to be equally high at 73%. <<<

EU citizens’ support for Ukraine is solid, Eurobarometer survey finds | News | European Parliament

Democracy remains the most important value EU citizens want Parliament to stand up for. 72% of respondents believe their country has benefited from being an EU member.

www.europarl.europa.eu

And this graphics from a Twitter:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1603033385068273664

 

[Trell]

It was surprising to many that the Russian armed forces are so bad as they’ve shown themselves to be in combat.

Still a menace and will be for a long time.

Here is an interesting article about an elite Russian brigade and what happened to it when it was sent to Ukraine. The article is long, so I'll just quote very little from it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/16/russia-200th-brigade-decimated-ukraine/

>>>HELSINKI — Nuclear-armed submarines slip in and out of the frigid waters along the coast of Russia’s Kola Peninsula at the northern edge of Europe. Missiles capable of destroying cities are stored by the dozens in bunkers burrowed into the inland hills.

Since the Cold War, this Arctic arsenal has been protected by a combat unit considered one of Russia’s most formidable — the 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade — until it sent its best fighters and weapons to Ukraine this year and was effectively destroyed.

The 200th was among the first units to plunge into Ukraine on Feb. 24, as part of a fearsome assault on the city of Kharkiv. By May, the unit was staggering back across the Russian border desperate to regroup, according to internal brigade documents reviewed by The Washington Post and to previously undisclosed details provided by Ukrainian and Western military and intelligence officials.

A document detailing a mid-war inventory of its ranks shows that by late May, fewer than 900 soldiers were left in two battalion tactical groups that, according to Western officials, had departed the brigade’s garrison in Russia with more than 1,400. The brigade’s commander was badly wounded. And some of those still being counted as part of the unit were listed as hospitalized, missing or “refuseniks” unwilling to fight, according to the document, part of a trove of internal Russian military files obtained by Ukraine’s security services and provided to The Post.
...
In that one sequence, the 200th had shown that it could be both lethally effective and fatally undisciplined. The erratic performance is characteristic of a unit that Western security officials describe as one of Russia’s higher-performing brigades but nevertheless plagued by systemic rot and dysfunction.
...
<<<

 

[Trell]

A Putin lackey with a very strong following by the Republicans in House, but, fortunately, much less so in the Senate. Thanks heaven that Josh Hawley have limited support in the Senate.

 

[Trell]

HIMARS, an xmas carrol.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1609699589464133632

 

[haraldo]

Zelenskyy new year speech

2022 struck our hearts. We cried out all the tears. All the prayers were yelled. 311 days. We have something to say about every minute. But most words are superfluous. No explanation needed. Silence is needed to hear. Pauses are needed to realize

We don't know for sure what new 2023 will bring us. I want to wish all of us one thing – victory. And that's the main thing.

Let this year be the year of return. The return of our people. Soldiers – to their families. Prisoners – to their homes. Immigrants – to their Ukraine. The return of our lands. And the temporarily occupied will become forever free.

Return to normal life. To happy moments without curfew. To earthly joys without air alerts. The return of what has been stolen from us. The childhood of our children, the peaceful old age of our parents.

May the New Year bring all it. We're ready to fight for it. That's why each of us is here. I'm here. We're here. You're here. Everyone's here. We're all Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!
Happy New Year!

 

[Trell]

A message to the Russians about their "ceasefire":

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611697779914555392

 

[highfigh]

I want to see Putin's definition of 'cease fire', aside from 'You will cease firing during the time I propose".

Russia continues Ukrainian attack during President Vladimir Putin's cease-fire - UPI.com

Despite announcing cease-fire during the Orthodox Christmas season, Russia fired missiles into Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka overnight Saturday into Sunday and the violence continued, officials said.

www.upi.com

 

[haraldo]

I want to see Putin's definition of 'cease fire', aside from 'You will cease firing during the time I propose".

Russia continues Ukrainian attack during President Vladimir Putin's cease-fire - UPI.com

Despite announcing cease-fire during the Orthodox Christmas season, Russia fired missiles into Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka overnight Saturday into Sunday and the violence continued, officials said.

www.upi.com

I saw this too, ruzzian army has zero credibility, putler has zero credibility .....

 

[Trell]

An alleged Wagner mercenary defector flees to Norway across the Norway-Russia border.

>>>Shots were fired by FSB, Wagner defector escaping to Norway is willing to testify

FSB border guards opened fire after the man running the polar night in the deep snow across the Pasvik River from Russia to Norway. The man, allegedly a defector from the Wagner mercenary group, says he is willing to testify against war criminal Yevgeny Prigozhin.
...
According to Gulagu.net, this is the first time a former commander from one of the units of Wagner private military company (pmc) had fled Russia for Europe. He is willing to testify and expose the oligarch and Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The man’s identity is revealed by gulagu.net as Andrei Medvedev. He left the combat group of Wagner after his 4-months contract, signed in late July, came to an end. ...<<<

Shots were fired by FSB, Wagner defector escaping to Norway is willing to testify

FSB border guards opened fire after the man running the polar night in the snow across the Pasvik River from Russia to Norway. The man, allegedly a defector from the Wagner mercenary group, says he is willing to testify against war criminal Yevgeny Prigozhin.

thebarentsobserver.com

A Norwegian news article about the same case: https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/eks-leder-i-wagner-har-flyktet-til-norge/78267275

 

[Swerd]

I've read the recent news stories about the disagreement among the NATO allies – should we arm Ukraine with modern Western-made tanks? I couldn't help wondering about a few things about the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

• Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine without provocation. Russia's efforts so far have been brutal, bloody, but not very effective. Ukraine has mounted an effective defense, but hasn't so far been able to repel the invasion. Nearly a year has passed since February 2022 when the invasion began, and the war has bogged down into a war of attrition.
  
  
• The NATO allies avoided getting directly involved, but sent a gradually increasing supply of weapons to Ukraine. Most of these weapons seem to be defensive. The USA and other NATO allies also provided some very helpful battlefield intelligence. These efforts were more effective than initially believed. This raised questions about the west's previous assumptions about Russian abilities. Russia seems less capable than we had feared.
  
  
• Now there is an apparent standoff among NATO allies. Should they supply heavy tanks in large enough numbers that might allow Ukraine to repel the Russian invaders? Is it too much of a risk to Europe and the world if we provoke Russia?
  
  
• Or, is it too much of a risk to allow Putin to remain in power? If he is defeated in Ukraine and is forced to withdraw, he is likely to remain in power for the short run. Putin has collected too much power in his more than 20-year reign to believe that Russians can or will oust him from power. I can't count on Russia to replace Putin easily, especially with a government that's not a threat to it's neighbors or the world. At best, I fear letting Russians determine who will replace Putin may be an unpredictable mess.
  
  
• Even if Ukraine succeeds in repelling the Russian invasion, the former communist bloc countries of the USSR and eastern Europe will be directly threatened by a Russian government determined to regain the former USSR empire. If they are threatened, so is all of Europe – and because of the NATO alliance – so is the USA and Canada.
  
  
• Would European and World peace be better served if Putin was removed from power, and Russia was disarmed and dismembered? It may very well require invading Russia, followed by military occupation, even dismembering Russia as a nation. After WW2, Germany was disarmed, occupied & dismembered for 46 years.
  
  
• What will it take to secure Europe and the World from this Russian threat? Arming Ukraine may be enough to repel the invasion, but is it a good long-term answer? Or, would it be better to more rapidly remove Putin from power and render the Russian nation impotent? As Colin Powell once said about our invasion of Iraq, "If you break it, it's yours." He meant, if you invade & break a nation, you better have a good long-term plan on what to do next.

I don't know answers to these questions. I wonder who, if anyone, does?

 

[Verdinut]

IMO, World peace would be served better if Putin was removed from power. Since it does not appear that his removal would happen within his own country, someone else has to do it.
Ukraine shouldn't be dismembered following a long lasting war. Then what country would be next? The invading country should be by all means in another attempt for World peace.

 

[Mojo Warrior]

Removing Putin does nothing to change Russian Imperialist mentality. He will be replaced with another person with the same ideals.

The Ukrainians have already repelled the Russian military from roughly 1/3 of the territory they initially occupied. They have momentum but lack the military hardware. This is improving but takes time to move heavy military equipment and provide training.

NATO is already involved. Providing weapons, training and intelligence. Incorporating Finland and Sweden is a major step. European nations clearly perceive the threat from Russia. The Kremlin has clearly stated that their enemy is Western countries, all of them, and are willing to use nuclear weapons against them. Ukraine is providing the "foot soldiers" for NATO.

Putin has been demonstrably incompetent in his "special military operation" which helps both Ukraine and NATO.

NATO is tying to "manage" the war to prevent an escalation into WW3. Defeat Russia without provoking an existential crisis in the Kremlin. Therefore, providing weapons that can evict Russians from Ukrainian territory without threatening Moscow and St.Petersburg regions. Russians have a historical/cultural paranoia and everyone knows that.

Existential crisis can be either to 1) to the Putin regime 2) the decolonization /disintegration of the Russian Federation. In scenario #2 the Russian Federation would be so weak and ineffective as to be inevitable.

In the future, Russia will always remain a threat to Ukraine. Always waiting for a period of weakness, a crisis or a distraction to subjugate and exploit their neighbor. This will require a robust national defense after the war. The formation of strong military alliances will also be necessary to help preserve peace in the region. In addition, war reparations and sanctions will help reduce future Russian military effectiveness. War crimes tribunals will be essential at defusing the post-defeat wish for revenge.

There is an interesting video on Youtube that analyzes a recent speech by Nikolai Petrushev, who is believed to be the second most powerful figure in the Kremlin. About a year ago, he was put in command when Putin was under anesthesia for a few hours. It's titled Kremlin's Bizarre Ideological Mission for 2023 and runs 12:29

 

[Verdinut]

If NATO decided to discontinue its requirements policy and accepted Ukraine as a member country without further delay, member countries would be able to get directly involved in the war against Russia and IMO, that would definitely shorten the war by putting an end to Russia's invasion.

 

[Trell]

To paraphrase Shakespeare: “Something is rotten in the state of Russia.”

Russia remains a huge gas station with nukes while being a malignant enemy of democracy and freedom.