Stock Market 2022

[Mr._Clark]

I tend to watch the S&P 500, in part because I have quite a bit in an S&P 500 Index fund. I've resigned myself to living with the downs that inevitably follow the ups.

Hopefully the drop during the first 6 months of this year isn't the beginning of a 20 year "flat" stretch similar to the one between, say, 1969-1989. Or, for that matter, the 15 year stretch between 2000-2015 (or 1929-1958, etc.).

I realize of course that if one can consistently buy and sell individual stocks at the right times it is possible to outperform index funds.

S&P 500 Index - 90 Year Historical Chart

Interactive chart of the S&P 500 stock market index since 1927. Historical data is inflation-adjusted using the headline CPI and each data point represents the month-end closing value. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.

www.macrotrends.net

 

[mtrycrafts]

One answer is to stay healthy, so you live long enough to cash in on the next upturn.

 

[rnatalli]

I realize of course that if one can consistently buy and sell individual stocks at the right times it is possible to outperform index funds.

Possible, but timing the market is incredibly difficult even for the best investors. Here's a fun game to try:

Time The Market Game

Are stocks due for a crash? Is it a good time to buy low? Can you time and beat the market?! Click the "Start" button below to start the clock on a

www.personalfinanceclub.com

For my profile and personality, the best methods:

1. Traditional portfolio investing for long-term goals like retirement.
2. Selling premium on neutral positions and depending on theta decay to bring in gains.
3. Trading equities with relative strength or weakness.

 

[highfigh]

Supply is intermittent and improving as manufacturers shift to more reliable places to produce from. Right now it is a workers economy unlike the last 40 years. What is needed are low skilled workers (migrants) to fill those jobs that Americans won't do.

If that's the case, why do I hear so many ads for skilled workers? Our economy is far too reliant on foreign-sourced goods, but the construction trades are also a good indicator of our workforce- they're looking for workers, but many aged out, retired, died or found jobs that don't beat the crap out of their bodies. Class A truck drivers are in extremely short supply and some companies are offering $12K signing bonus, paying more than $100K/year and the driver is home every night.

We already have millions of migrants- low paying jobs are only part of the economy- they don't drive it.

 

[highfigh]

It's a global issue. Unemployment rate is considered full employment or almost so.

But when an administration wants to make itself look good, they don't include all of the information- how many have stopped reporting, created a job for themselves, work more than one job as a way to have a bit less repetition? The last one alone will skew the stats quite a bit. Some who have worked as waitstaff for many years made very good money- go to a decent restaurant and try to get good service now- it's almost impossible and many bars/restaurants closed because of lack of business and now, they can't staff their places.

 

[MaxInValrico]

and that is but one key component to inflation, along the Fed sitting on it's butt for 9 plus months and not doing anything with interest rates have with the other points mentioned gotten us to this point.

Of note is my old industry (railroading) which has historically been a leading indicator both into and out of previous recessions. Last year overall carloadings were down and I suspect there was 'fog in the air' due to COVID

If that's the case, why do I hear so many ads for skilled workers? Our economy is far too reliant on foreign-sourced goods, but the construction trades are also a good indicator of our workforce- they're looking for workers, but many aged out, retired, died or found jobs that don't beat the crap out of their bodies. Class A truck drivers are in extremely short supply and some companies are offering $12K signing bonus, paying more than $100K/year and the driver is home every night.

We already have millions of migrants- low paying jobs are only part of the economy- they don't drive it.

All spending drives the economy. There are tons of ads for skilled workers because that's what is needed. Nobody wants to drive a truck just like nobody wants to be a coal miner anymore. The fact that there is demand for workers is a positive indicator of economic activity.

 

[highfigh]

All spending drives the economy. There are tons of ads for skilled workers because that's what is needed. Nobody wants to drive a truck just like nobody wants to be a coal miner anymore. The fact that there is demand for workers is a positive indicator of economic activity.

I know someone who drives a truck- he makes damn good money and it's a part time gig. I don't know why someone who may be looking for a more permanent job, is young, unattached and wanting to save a pile of money can't drive for someone- it's a tough time for a driver-owner but they can negotiate to some degree.

There's a lack of workers because people were paid to stay at home and they decided they don't want to work, either at all or in their old job. That's hardly a positive sign. The quality of work needs to go back to what it was pre-Covid- people are really phoning it in.

 

[BoredSysAdmin]

There's a lack of workers because people were paid to stay at home and they decided they don't want to work, either at all or in their old job. That's hardly a positive sign.

There are many reasons for the lack of workers. Due to laughably terrible US postpartum benefits, mothers decided to stay home instead of paying most of their salary after taxes for daycares. With higher risk in retail jobs combined with low salaries, many others weighed the risks and decided it was not worth it for them. I guess a sharp rise in minimum salary should help with that, but it could also affect inflation.
Another reason is remote working - many had a chance to experience it during lockdowns and saw that they are fully capable of doing their jobs remotely. Forced going back to the office fully or partly was a big reason for many skilled labor positions opening up. These people either retired early or stuck their guns to remote-only jobs.

In short, Highfigh, your overly simplified and honestly skewed opinions are long overdue to be adjusted for reality.

 

[Trell]

There are many reasons for the lack of workers. Due to laughably terrible US postpartum benefits, mothers decided to stay home instead of paying most of their salary after taxes for daycares. With higher risk in retail jobs combined with low salaries, many others weighed the risks and decided it was not worth it for them. I guess a sharp rise in minimum salary should help with that, but it could also affect inflation.
Another reason is remote working - many had a chance to experience it during lockdowns and saw that they are fully capable of doing their jobs remotely. Forced going back to the office fully or partly was a big reason for many skilled labor positions opening up. These people either retired early or stuck their guns to remote-only jobs.

In short, Highfigh, your overly simplified and honestly skewed opinions are long overdue to be adjusted for reality.

To summarize: Many found out they don’t want unstable shitty jobs with shitty pay and benefits working for shitty companies. For some it even barely makes any economic sense as just about all their salary goes to daycare even when working 12 hours a day (that’s really shitty).

 

[MaxInValrico]

I know someone who drives a truck- he makes damn good money and it's a part time gig. I don't know why someone who may be looking for a more permanent job, is young, unattached and wanting to save a pile of money can't drive for someone- it's a tough time for a driver-owner but they can negotiate to some degree.

There's a lack of workers because people were paid to stay at home and they decided they don't want to work, either at all or in their old job. That's hardly a positive sign. The quality of work needs to go back to what it was pre-Covid- people are really phoning it in.

Nobody is staying home. People have reevaluated what they want to get paid to do. There was a truck driver shortage pre-Covid. That hasn't changed.

 

[rnatalli]

People keep saying the country needs to get back to "normal" as in how work was before COVID. The normal where people felt pressured to go to work sick. The normal where people crowded crumbling infrastructure. The normal where so many went underpaid. The normal where new mothers were back in the office in a matter of weeks after giving birth. The pandemic got a lot of folks thinking.

 

[highfigh]

And with their useless degrees and past work history, how do you think they're going to react to not being able to find a job that "pays them what they're worth"? A lot of people see themselves as more important than they really are, especially in non-skilled jobs. People with trade and other skills that are outside of white collar jobs are able to make a killing because of the short supply. The ones who consider themselves to be 'thinkers' are going to have a rough time.

What would someone write on an application if they're an 'influencer'?

 

[MaxInValrico]

And with their useless degrees and past work history, how do you think they're going to react to not being able to find a job that "pays them what they're worth"? A lot of people see themselves as more important than they really are, especially in non-skilled jobs. People with trade and other skills that are outside of white collar jobs are able to make a killing because of the short supply. The ones who consider themselves to be 'thinkers' are going to have a rough time.

What would someone write on an application if they're an 'influencer'?

You assume far too much.

 

[Mikado463]

There was a truck driver shortage pre-Covid. That hasn't changed.

actually it's gotten worse as well as the shortage in train & engine crews for the Nations railroads

 

[highfigh]

You assume far too much.

Oh, yeah?

One of the few things I assume is that you'll chime in and not show where you disagree.

 

[MaxInValrico]

Oh, yeah?

One of the few things I assume is that you'll chime in and not show where you disagree.

Absolutely and it's far more than few. Get out and meet some younger people and find out what they think.

 

[highfigh]

Absolutely and it's far more than few. Get out and meet some younger people and find out what they think.

I would ask them what they think but the ones I interact with at their places of employment don't do their jobs very well- some can't count change to save their lives.

 

[rnatalli]

I would ask them what they think but the ones I interact with at their places of employment don't do their jobs very well- some can't count change to save their lives.

I’m from generation X and understand your thinking. For a time, I thought the newer generations lacked in many ways, but learned they get quite a bit right. For example:

1. They think paying $200/mo for a package which includes TV is dumb. They’re right.
2. They don’t put as much weight in show off things like cars or clothes as previous generations. They’re right.
3. They demand a better work-life balance. In others words, employers should leave them alone after 5pm or when they’re sick. They’re right.
4. The women think 3 months is ridiculous for maternity leave. They’re right.
5. Many are pouring funds into investments so they can retire early (FIRE). When one isn’t spending on useless TV or fancy cars, they can save a lot. Definitely smart.

This could go on, but in short, they may get wrong what previous generations thought was important, but get a lot of other things right.

 

[highfigh]

I’m from generation X and understand your thinking. For a time, I thought the newer generations lacked in many ways, but learned they get quite a bit right. For example:

1. They think paying $200/mo for a package which includes TV is dumb. They’re right.
2. They don’t put as much weight in show off things like cars or clothes as previous generations. They’re right.
3. They demand a better work-life balance. In others words, employers should leave them alone after 5pm or when they’re sick. They’re right.
4. The women think 3 months is ridiculous for maternity leave. They’re right.
5. Many are pouring funds into investments so they can retire early (FIRE). When one isn’t spending on useless TV or fancy cars, they can save a lot. Definitely smart.

This could go on, but in short, they may get wrong what previous generations thought was important, but get a lot of other things right.

$200/month is absurd, if someone can't afford it. Same for buying an $8 cup of coffee. Same goes for trying to look like they're rich when they aren't. The obsession over the Kardashians is a good example- most are wannabes. How many people have hopped on a trend that makes them look ridiculous, like 'Lumber-sexual', Hipsters, etc.

Demanding a better work-life balance is great, when someone has job skills that make them valuable to employers. For those who don't have skills that will yield high wages, it's not gonna happen, although they can make the decisions for their personal time that bring happiness- many think they hate their life because they hate their job, but I would argue that some hate their job because they hate their life- look at the drug & alcohol use/abuse that's still so common.

Why does 5PM even enter the conversation? Work needs to be done, people need to do it. Someone cleaning restrooms or doing other minimum-skill jobs may be needed, but they don't bring revenue to a company, so how much should they be paid? I worked for a place where one of the owners thought we should arrive at 9AM, leave at 6PM and not be there at any other time. This was a boat dealership- it's a feast or famine business and when boats need to be ready to sell, people need to make them ready, regardless of the time of day. He didn't understand that.

As an employee, "I want to go home" or "I don't feel like being here" don't work. A job isn't a democracy.

 

[Out-Of-Phase]

The second half of the year does not look good.

The second half is 'not looking good': Strategists on how to weather the market storm

The first half of 2022 was dismal for stocks, and strategists think there are more dark clouds on the horizon. Here's how they suggest navigating it.

www.cnbc.com