Coronavirus

[highfigh]

Back in October, the CDC estimated that there were 146.6 million total infections:

View attachment 52949

This seems like a SWAG to me, but if it's in the ballpark, almost half of the U.S. has been infected by now. This does make me wonder how effective immunity from infection is against omicron. As far as I can tell, no one really knows right now.

Cases, Data, and Surveillance

Cases, data, and surveillance to track and analyze COVID-19.

www.cdc.gov

On June 18, 2021, this chart shows that Wisconsin had 67 new cases and had an average of 76 cases per day. On Jan 6, 2022, it shows 12,282 new cases and an average of 7637 cases per day.

COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease)

Wisconsin's source of trusted information and data on COVID-19.

www.dhs.wisconsin.gov

I see more people wearing masks, but to reach 100x the infection rate, I think new conclusions are needed because whatever is being done to fight the spread clearly isn't working. The new 5 day quarantine doesn't seem right- I know several people who were recently infected (including myself) and 5 days can't be enough. Mine took a full two weeks for me to reach the point of finally testing negative- 1st test- Dec 29, (Positive results on Dec 20), 2nd test Jan 6 (Inconclusive results on Jan 7), 3rd test Jan 8 (Negative results Jan 8). I started having symptoms on Dec 25 and there was no way in hell I felt good enough five days later to resume normal life. I still don't feel 'great'- still coughing and having breathing problems, but those have definitely improved.

They're pissing on our backs and telling us that it's raining.

 

[cpp]

Most Floridians will potentially have been infected with COVID-19 by the time the omicron wave ends, according to a new report from the University of Florida.

Researchers also now predict the omicron variant wave will peak this month. The original prediction for February changed after the recent surge of cases.

“Probably 70 to 80% of the state will either get infected in this wave or have been infected in a prior wave,” Ira Longini, a University of Florida professor and one of the researchers who worked on the report, told WESH in Orlando.

 

[Swerd]

So far, the omicron wave seems much more contagious, resulting in many more cases than previous strains of SARS-CoV-2, such delta, or whatever that strain was a year ago in January 2021. While omicron is more contagious, it seems less likely to result in death or severe hospitalizations.

Here are USA cases, deaths, and hospitalizations (as of 5 Jan 2022) plotted together on one graph:

Compare what's happening in the US to South Africa. South Africa serves as a best-case scenario for other nations also experiencing an omicron wave. The variant both rose and declined there very quickly and caused milder outcomes, reaching its peak without too many deaths.

And here is what's known in London (not the UK as a whole). Data shows cases & deaths, but not hospitalizations.

Omicron has quite different clinical effects shared among several different population groups, South Africa, London, and the USA. Clearly omicron is a very different pathogen than the previous coronavirus strains. Let's hope these trends continue, and that South Africa's experience will be repeated here and elsewhere.

Graphs were copied from an article appearing in this mornings Washington Post.

 

[cpp]

So far, the omicron wave seems much more contagious,

Could it be because Omincron has 36 different variants.

 

[Danzilla31]

On June 18, 2021, this chart shows that Wisconsin had 67 new cases and had an average of 76 cases per day. On Jan 6, 2022, it shows 12,282 new cases and an average of 7637 cases per day.

COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease)

Wisconsin's source of trusted information and data on COVID-19.

www.dhs.wisconsin.gov

I see more people wearing masks, but to reach 100x the infection rate, I think new conclusions are needed because whatever is being done to fight the spread clearly isn't working. The new 5 day quarantine doesn't seem right- I know several people who were recently infected (including myself) and 5 days can't be enough. Mine took a full two weeks for me to reach the point of finally testing negative- 1st test- Dec 29, (Positive results on Dec 20), 2nd test Jan 6 (Inconclusive results on Jan 7), 3rd test Jan 8 (Negative results Jan 8). I started having symptoms on Dec 25 and there was no way in hell I felt good enough five days later to resume normal life. I still don't feel 'great'- still coughing and having breathing problems, but those have definitely improved.

They're pissing on our backs and telling us that it's raining.

Listen unless your wearing a N95 or KN95 masks are not going to work. Not against Omnicron. Even then they are supposed to be fit tested for you or they won't help.

But you should mask anyway because A if it helps just a little it's better then nothing and B if it helps people have a sense of control so they don't panic that's cool too.

This new variant is almost as infectious as measles its very contagious one person can spread it to a lot of people there is no stopping its spread. I wish people would stop saying that phrase. Now should you catch it on purpose of course not

We have effective tools vaccinate mask properly use distancing and make rational decisions about where you choose to go in the middle of a wave season and your going to get through this. Just keep in mind there is no defeating Omnicron and future variants are going to become endemic like the flu understanding that keeps people from stressing and freaking out.

Hope you get to feeling better soon

 

[Danzilla31]

The one interesting thing about this variants preliminary data seems to show is the way it evades vaxxines and immunity from precious infections is why it's not only somewhat less deadly but more contagious

It seems to replicate much faster in the upper lungs and the respiratory system and then replicates super fast. But it goes less inro the deep lungs where the problems really lead to severe disease.

This allows it to bypass vaccines and your natural immune response for a short time because those kick in as the virus goes deeper into the tissue. This fast upper replication is also part of what makes it easier to spread as you cough sneeze breathe it out in way higher amounts.

Although who knows long term what covid will do if this variant stays the dominant strain it may be heading us finally towards the direction of endemic a more contagious but less deadly strain that will combined with immunity from vaccines finally get us closer to a type of herd immunity that makes this more endemic and less severe then previous waves

But one thing to note literally everyone is going to catch Omnicron at some point or another. Vaccinate educate make common sense decisions and well get through this so let's hope this preliminary data holds up

Just don't freak out like that teacher in Texas did yesterday and lock your kid in the trunk on the way to a testing site so you don't catch it yourself for God's sake. I'm not judging her but that level of hysterical decision making is the last thing we need.

 

[Mr._Clark]

nytimes.com has an interesting article with charts showing new cases and deaths for several large cities, but with a 21 day offset on the deaths. There are also charts showing hospitalizations. Basically, deaths have not reached the prior peaks, but hospitalizations have exceeded prior peaks (at least in the cities shown in the charts).

All I can say is that I hope the increases in cases, hospitalizations, etc. slow down shortly.

>>>In New York City, Boston and Chicago — cities with some of the country’s earliest Omicron surges — deaths have followed cases at a slightly reduced scale than in previous peaks. But because of the extraordinarily high case count, even a proportionally lower death toll from the current case curve in the United States could be devastating.<<<

Hospitalizations are also increasing rapidly (to put it mildly) in some cities:

Early Data Hints at Omicron’s Potential Toll Across America (Published 2022)

In the cities that were among the first to experience rapid rises in Covid cases due to Omicron, serious outcomes including I.C.U. stays and deaths are following case curves upward.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Mr._Clark]

According to the doctor quoted in this article, prior infections seems to be ineffective against omicron:

>>>“This idea of natural immunity is not really panning out with this virus,” Dr. Hilary Fairbrother, an emergency medicine physician based in Houston, TX, said on Yahoo Finance Live . . . “For patients who had alpha or delta [strains of coronavirus], they seem to have next to no immunity when it comes to omicron,” Fairbrother said. “There is some evidence that there’s slightly less severity in disease, and other people have certainly seen patients who are very sick with omicron who have already had COVID. So the best protection that we have is vaccination.”<<<<

Omicron: Natural immunity idea ‘not really panning out,’ doctor explains

“This idea of natural immunity is not really panning out with this virus,” Dr. Hilary Fairbrother, an emergency medicine physician based in New York City, explained on Yahoo Finance Live.

www.yahoo.com

 

[mtrycrafts]

Listen unless your wearing a N95 or KN95 masks are not going to work. ...

I would add NIOSH certified masks as just having N95 printed on a mask is no guarantee that it is.

 

[highfigh]

Listen unless your wearing a N95 or KN95 masks are not going to work. Not against Omnicron. Even then they are supposed to be fit tested for you or they won't help.

But you should mask anyway because A if it helps just a little it's better then nothing and B if it helps people have a sense of control so they don't panic that's cool too.

This new variant is almost as infectious as measles its very contagious one person can spread it to a lot of people there is no stopping its spread. I wish people would stop saying that phrase. Now should you catch it on purpose of course not

We have effective tools vaccinate mask properly use distancing and make rational decisions about where you choose to go in the middle of a wave season and your going to get through this. Just keep in mind there is no defeating Omnicron and future variants are going to become endemic like the flu understanding that keeps people from stressing and freaking out.

Hope you get to feeling better soon

My masks are all N95, actually for worksites. They have a foam seal at the nose and around the chin, two straps that go around the head and are much more snug that the shytty ones everyone hands out as if they're helping humanity. Those crappy one use masks don't seal and they let almost everything through. I have seen so many filthy masks, masks worn below the nose, people fiddling endlessly with them and none of them seem to have a GD clue about why they need to cover their nose. It's the ONE PLACE they swab, yet that seems to have escaped their tiny little brains.

Used to be that people who knew they were sick stayed at home until they felt better but I guess that ship has sailed.

I got a negative test result yesterday- now, I'm just pissed off.

 

[highfigh]

I would add NIOSH certified masks as just having N95 printed on a mask is no guarantee that it is.

Then what's the effing point?

 

[Verdinut]

United Canada Inc. sells medical supplies and has an online store. They carry genuine 3M N95 and ASTM certified masks. They also ship to the US:

3M Vflex Healthcare Particulate Respirator And Surgical Mask 1804, N95 | United Canada

The 3M VFlex Healthcare Particulate Respirator and Surgical Mask helps provide respiratory protection against certain airborne particles.

unitedcanadainc.com

 

[davidscott]

Looks that they are sold out, so it appears some people are taking this new variant seriously.

 

[Verdinut]

Looks that they are sold out, so it appears some people are taking this new variant seriously.

The ASTM Level 3 mask are for use in surgical rooms. These are what I use on a daily basis when I go out to shop. They are what is best after the N95 variety.

I ordered some N95 ones last Friday. They are also on back order. The Level 3 are an acceptable substitute. You can use two for additional protection if you prefer.

 

[davidscott]

The ASTM Level 3 mask are for use in surgical rooms. These are what I use on a daily basis when I go out to shop. They are what is best after the N95 variety.

I ordered some N95 ones last Friday. They are also on back order. The Level 3 are an acceptable substitute. You can use two for additional protection if you prefer.

Thanks. I have some N95 masks and the 3 ply masks. I do take this thing seriously and always wear a mask indoors when shopping. I have had 2 Moderna shots with a booster and so far, so good. It is amazing to me that still when I go shopping the at least half the people aren't wearing masks even though all the employees are.

 

[Verdinut]

Thanks. I have some N95 masks and the 3 ply masks. I do take this thing seriously and always wear a mask indoors when shopping. I have had 2 Moderna shots with a booster and so far, so good. It is amazing to me that still when I go shopping the at least half the people aren't wearing masks even though all the employees are.

In Canada, there is an obligation to wear masks in stores. IMO, that should be mandatory in all shopping sites.

 

[mtrycrafts]

Then what's the effing point?

Not sure I fully follow you here.
But, fraud is a real thing out there and N95 is not a copyright case. NIOSH N95 is tested by their agency to meet specs and allowed to place that stamp on the mask.

 

[davidscott]

In Canada, there is an obligation to wear masks in stores. IMO, that should be mandatory in all shopping sites.

Unfortunately, not here in the US. In fact, here in Florida maybe half the people in a store are wearing masks. The good news is we have one of the highest vax rates in the country, but I bet most of the non-maskers are also non vaxers. So, the good news is everybody will either catch covid or be vaxed. Herd immunity might be closer than we think.

 

[mtrycrafts]

Thanks. I have some N95 masks and the 3 ply masks. I do take this thing seriously and always wear a mask indoors when shopping. I have had 2 Moderna shots with a booster and so far, so good. It is amazing to me that still when I go shopping the at least half the people aren't wearing masks even though all the employees are.

Good thing we only have a Herman Cain post for the well known ..... otherwise we wouldn't have enough pages to list all the unknown ....

 

[mtrycrafts]

Unfortunately, not here in the US. In fact, here in Florida maybe half the people in a store are wearing masks. The good news is we have one of the highest vax rates in the country, but I bet most of the non-maskers are also non vaxers. So, the good news is everybody will either catch covid or be vaxed. Herd immunity might be closer than we think.

Well, that may need to be in the high 90s.