Coronavirus

[TLS Guy]

Depends on what is played

UK cathedral organists only play the finest music. Most have been choristers as children, and they have only performed the finest music. You can be certain they will play no rubbish.

 

[TLS Guy]

Vaccinating in old cathedrals with organ music appeals to me.

Having a large vaccine facility ready to produce vaccines quickly strikes me as being a good idea. The next virus might be a lot worse. If nothing else, having the facilities in place provides the option to ramp up and vaccinate quickly.

It would be really surprising if the Manaus outbreak was caused by the same strain as in June, unless there study showing antibodies in 76% of that population was incorrect. Either way you can not trust what comes out of Brazil, as it is on the same level as what comes out of Trump's mouth.

 

[Trell]

UK cathedral organists only play the finest music. Most have been choristers as children, and they have only performed the finest music. You can be certain they will play no rubbish.

I've no doubt that they will play the finest music, but my small joke was more about was actually played The Norwegian church music can be more than a little depressive...

 

[TLS Guy]

The father of an acquaintance passed away a few months ago after contracting COVID which caused a severe stroke. His health had not been great before contracting COVID, but it wasn't terrible (e.g. he had been out golfing a few weeks before).

I'm sorry to hear that. My brother is recovering. He has been home for nearly three weeks now. His voice is now strong. He says he has very poor exertional tolerance still. He was considering doing some work this week but decided against it. The weather has been colder than usual in the UK of late. He says he does not do well in cold air at all. His wife was warned on Christmas day, that he may not survive. That seem to be the nadir of his illness. So my advice remains the same. Do your absolute best to stay clear of this virus.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Quite a few recent infections in LA are a "homegrown" mutation (CAL.20C). According to statements by the people in the NYT article it is unclear if this mutation is more contagious.

>>>In late December, scientists in California began searching coronavirus samples for a fast-spreading new variant that had just been identified in Britain.
They found it, though in relatively few samples. But in the process, the scientists made another unwelcome discovery: California had produced a variant of its own.
That mutant, which belongs to a lineage known as CAL.20C, seemed to have popped up in July but lay low till November. Then it began to quickly spread.
CAL.20C accounted for more than half of the virus genome samples collected in Los Angeles laboratories on Jan. 13, according to a new study that has not yet been published.<<<

New California Variant May Be Driving Virus Surge There, Study Suggests (Published 2021)

Researchers found that the variant originated in California and showed up in more than half of samples tested last week by researchers in Los Angeles.

www.nytimes.com

>>>CAL.20C is distinct from the virus version identified in Britain—known as B.1.1.7—that is spreading in the U.S. and is believed to be highly transmissible. In Southern California, B.1.1.7 has been found in scattered coronavirus cases in Los Angeles, San Diego and San Bernardino counties. In contrast, the CAL.20C strain was identified in 36.4% of cases in the Cedars-Sinai study.<<<

Local COVID-19 Strain Found in Over One-Third of Los Angeles Patients

A new strain of the coronavirus has been found in more than one-third of COVID-19 cases in Los Angeles and may be contributing to the acceleration of the recent surge of cases across Southern California, according to new research from Cedars-Sinai.The strain, which the investigators designated...

www.cedars-sinai.org

 

[Mr._Clark]

I'm sorry to hear that. My brother is recovering. He has been home for nearly three weeks now. His voice is now strong. He says he has very poor exertional tolerance still. He was considering doing some work this week but decided against it. The weather has been colder than usual in the UK of late. He says he does not do well in cold air at all. His wife was warned on Christmas day, that he may not survive. That seem to be the nadir of his illness. So my advice remains the same. Do your absolute best to stay clear of this virus.

I'm glad to hear your brother is recovering.

Most people I know who've had it recovered, but some were sick for several weeks and some are experiencing fatigue and other symptoms months later. This is anecdotal, but amoung the people I know there does not seem to be a strong correlation between how sick a person was and whether or not they experience lingering symptoms.

 

[Mr._Clark]

The New York Times is running an article about the supply of vaccines. This is not a surprise, but Moderna and Pfizer are already running at full capacity so the supply of these vaccines is not going to increase significantly any time soon.

Unless my math is failing me, at the current rate it will take about a year to vaccinate everyone in the U.S. with 2 doses.

>>>Both companies [Moderna and Pfizer] are manufacturing the doses at full capacity, and are collectively releasing about 12 million doses each week, a number expected to gradually increase.<<<

U.S. Covid Vaccine Supply: How to Make Sense of Those Confusing Numbers (Published 2021)

Can President Biden really boost production? Why are governors trying to buy directly from Pfizer? And when will supply exceed demand?

www.nytimes.com

 

[Trell]

Finally, at last:

Biden will use the Defense Production Act in his anti-coronavirus effort

The goal is to help Biden make enough vaccines for at least 100 million people in his first 100 days.

www.vox.com

 

[Mikado463]

any further news on the J & J front with their offering ? a single shot variety I believe ?

 

[TLS Guy]

any further news on the J & J front with their offering ? a single shot variety I believe ?

Yes, J & J say they hope to present their data to the regulator in around two weeks. So maybe they can roll out in 3 weeks or so. They say they can produce 100,000,000 doses per year. It is an mDNA vaccine with a viral vector, very similar to the Oxford vaccine and easy to distribute.

As I said previously, the FDA need to accept the data presented to the UK regulator on the Oxford vaccine. There have been zero incidents with it, in millions of doses given in the UK now. These are not normal times.

There does seem to be a problem with Pfizer, I'm suspicious they are having production problems here and in the Europe. Israel is not happy with the Pfizer vaccine and say it is actually only 30% effective. I don't know if this is because of breaks in the cold chain, or other issues. This really needs looking into. If it is true then the Moderna vaccine may not be as effective as we think.

I am very concerned about the mutations all cropping up. I think the War Powers act should be used here to fast track a build of the plant nearing completion in Oxford. This is designed for rapid edit of vaccines, so it can take place almost on the fly. It is also designed to manufacture multiple platforms.

 

[Mikado463]

Thanks Mark for the update !

 

[Swerd]

Israel is not happy with the Pfizer vaccine and say it is actually only 30% effective. I don't know if this is because of breaks in the cold chain, or other issues.

Israel said that the Pfizer vaccine was 30% effective after a single dose. In the phase 3 trial, efficacy numbers was given only after 2 doses, 4 weeks apart. There was no estimate of efficacy after one dose.

 

[TLS Guy]

Thanks Mark for the update !

I have a further update.

I have just watched a news conference given by the UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, with professor Chris Whitty, and Sir Patrick Valence.

First the bad news. Preliminary data shows that the new Kent mutation, is in fact more lethal as well as infectious. Current trends indicate a higher mortality, of 30 to 40 percent, at least in 60 years olds, than the previous strain. In the UK with the previous strain, out of every 1000 60 year olds infected 10 died. With the new variant is seems to be 13, to 14, out of every 1000 60 year olds infected dies.

The good news is that they are certain that the current vaccines are effective against this strain.

However, they are fairly certain that they do not work well against one of the South African strains and the more severe E484K Brazil strain. Not only that but the monoclonal antibodies, which have been so effective, have reduced activity against these strains.

The Oxford vaccine is currently undergoing an edit for these strains. Previously it was indicated that this could be done within an eight week time frame, or thereabouts.

Sir Patrick stressed that the degree of spread and contagion is driving these mutations. It looks as if the UK will move to close its borders even harder. I think all international travel needs to pretty much stop. That should be the very last thing to resume on the tail end of the pandemic. World wide vaccine production needs to really ramp up. That is going to require plant construction at unprecedented speed. The fact is the whole world has to be immunized and kept immunized, otherwise we risk disaster. Sir Patrick Valence stressed that the world will never be rid of Covid-19. We will be effectively be playing "cat and mouse' with it forever. This is something that air and cruise lines will have to get their arms round.

Apparently the UK do have data that one dose of any of these vaccines confers a high degree of protection. So the issue of Israel arose. Apparently they have a high prevalence of the South African vaccine resistant mutation. So this all needs further study. However the UK seems convinced that there are now two mutations on the loose that are resistant to the current vaccines to degrees that need to be determined.

The bottom line is that this creates enormous uncertainty as to how and when this pandemic will end. This was stressed by the Prime Minister, who was at pains to point out that firm predictions are impossible. He stressed that restrictions when the time comes will have to be released slowly and cautiously. There may well be a need to increase them further before they can be released. The point was made that the UK mortality is currently awful. The UK is right up close to 100,000 dead, and will pass that last week. This death toll will surpass the worst initial projections by over 100%. At the time the braying press bob said those initial projections were a wild over estimate.

 

[Mr._Clark]

The UK is right up close to 100,000 dead, and will pass that last week. This death toll will surpass the worst initial projections by over 100%. At the time the braying press bob said those initial projections were a wild over estimate.

Thanks for the update.

If I may, those pushing the "it's way overblown!" narrative irk me. Here's Ioannidis on March 17, 2020:

>>>If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. . . Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction?<<<

His academic specialty seems to generating very large (but uncertain) estimates of how many people have been infected, then dividing the number of deaths by this very large number to produce extremely low IFR estimates.

It's a mystery why anyone puts any stock in someone who seriously suggested there might only be 10,000 deaths in the U.S.

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

A fiasco in the making? As the #coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data.

www.statnews.com

 

[KEW]

Having a large vaccine facility ready to produce vaccines quickly strikes me as being a good idea. The next virus might be a lot worse. If nothing else, having the facilities in place provides the option to ramp up and vaccinate quickly.

I suspect (and hope) this will be the pandemic that will prompt such measures be taken in other industrialized countries, as well!
I read somewhere (may have been here that it was practicable to actually have vaccine formulae pre-established for many likely possibilities so as soon as the nature of the virus was established they could pick the vaccine that fits the virus and start production and whatever initial trials might be required in short order.

 

[KEW]

If I may, those pushing the "it's way overblown!" narrative irk me. Here's Ioannidis on March 17, 2020:

It is interesting what Trumps approach was to this.
He took a model (out of Washington Univ., I believe) that said as many as 2 million may die if the virus was left to run its course without any intervention.
Trump correctly understood that based on his statements, many of his followers would accept that as the standard by which to evaluate his performance, so when the death toll was at 200,000 I know people saying that was effectively a 90% reduction in deaths that Trump gets credit for. It is frustrating to see how ignorant some people who are otherwise reasonably intelligent can be in the "fog of politics" created by Trumps "theater of outrage"!
Now that we are over 400,000 and rising fast, 500,000 is a given and it seems like 700,000 may be the final US tally by the time things settle out (if we don't get hammered too bad by mutations)!

 

[KEW]

Well, it looks like Civid-19 has hit home for me!
I just found out earlier today that both my daughter and my GF most likely have it.
Daughter went with roommate to get tested after finding out they had been exposed. Her roommate tested positive and my daughter tested negative, however, my daughter believes she got a false negative as she is having chills and has lost her sense of smell. Maybe it is a coincidental flu that happens to block her smell, but taht seems like a long shot.
GF is a police officer and got involved Thursday night (off duty) when an ambulance came to pick up a neighbor/friend who is on dialysis and in need of a kidney (which her son is willing to donate), but unable to lose enough weight to qualify for. GF masked up, but was not maintaining 6 feet. Friday, she got the word that the neighbor has Covid (which, as callous as it sounds, will likely be the neighbor's demise - she is not a healthy woman). GF went into quarantine due to her exposure. Today, my GF said that she was experiencing muscle soreness and she has no other easy explanation for that aside from Covid. Perhaps a positive is that she got the first dose of Moderna on Wednesday and gone through a period of fatigue on Thursday and half of Friday, so I am hoping her system has a leg up in gaining immunity.
Myself I spent Thursday night (after exposure) with the GF (not knowing that there was an exposure). Found out she was exposed Friday afternoon and she went into quarantine. So far, I have no symptoms. I am hoping that while the GF likely received a viral load that she did not carry a viral load to expose me (and she took a shower shortly after she returned). In my very limited understanding, I would expect that it would not be easy for a person to retain and transmit a viral load of the virus via second hand exposure, and expect she had not yet had enough time (less than 24 hours) to have replicated the virus enough to infect me.

I have a question for those of you with an advanced understanding of Covid 19. My GF works at Kennesaw State University. It has a well respected nursing school, so I would expect their HR department should have good access to medical expertise (if the CDC or Ga Dept of Health is not providing guidance).
For the sake of my question, forget that she is showing symptoms (soreness).
Their rule is:
If you've been exposed, you need to get a test on the 5th day. If the test is negative, then you can return to work after 7 days!

I don't understand this! If you test negative on day 5 (and don't have symptoms) why would you not return to work as soon as you got the test result?
If there is a chance you would get Covid on days 6 or 7, why wouldn't you want to wait until day 7 for the test?
The only explanation I can muster is that it is a hold-over from the earlier tests which required a 2 day wait before results were ready.

So my question is am I missing something? If not, they should allow return after a negative result of the test taken on the 5th day, right?

 

[shadyJ]

Sorry to hear all of that Kurt. I have a brother who lives in another state who just caught it as well. He and his wife also think that he might have given it to her, although her test results have not come back yet. The symptoms are there though. He didn't catch it through reckless behavior, he was a 'front-line' worker who helps to run a major airport. He still got it despite his precautions.

 

[TLS Guy]

Well, it looks like Civid-19 has hit home for me!
I just found out earlier today that both my daughter and my GF most likely have it.
Daughter went with roommate to get tested after finding out they had been exposed. Her roommate tested positive and my daughter tested negative, however, my daughter believes she got a false negative as she is having chills and has lost her sense of smell. Maybe it is a coincidental flu that happens to block her smell, but taht seems like a long shot.
GF is a police officer and got involved Thursday night (off duty) when an ambulance came to pick up a neighbor/friend who is on dialysis and in need of a kidney (which her son is willing to donate), but unable to lose enough weight to qualify for. GF masked up, but was not maintaining 6 feet. Friday, she got the word that the neighbor has Covid (which, as callous as it sounds, will likely be the neighbor's demise - she is not a healthy woman). GF went into quarantine due to her exposure. Today, my GF said that she was experiencing muscle soreness and she has no other easy explanation for that aside from Covid. Perhaps a positive is that she got the first dose of Moderna on Wednesday and gone through a period of fatigue on Thursday and half of Friday, so I am hoping her system has a leg up in gaining immunity.
Myself I spent Thursday night (after exposure) with the GF (not knowing that there was an exposure). Found out she was exposed Friday afternoon and she went into quarantine. So far, I have no symptoms. I am hoping that while the GF likely received a viral load that she did not carry a viral load to expose me (and she took a shower shortly after she returned). In my very limited understanding, I would expect that it would not be easy for a person to retain and transmit a viral load of the virus via second hand exposure, and expect she had not yet had enough time (less than 24 hours) to have replicated the virus enough to infect me.

I have a question for those of you with an advanced understanding of Covid 19. My GF works at Kennesaw State University. It has a well respected nursing school, so I would expect their HR department should have good access to medical expertise (if the CDC or Ga Dept of Health is not providing guidance).
For the sake of my question, forget that she is showing symptoms (soreness).
Their rule is:
If you've been exposed, you need to get a test on the 5th day. If the test is negative, then you can return to work after 7 days!

I don't understand this! If you test negative on day 5 (and don't have symptoms) why would you not return to work as soon as you got the test result?
If there is a chance you would get Covid on days 6 or 7, why wouldn't you want to wait until day 7 for the test?
The only explanation I can muster is that it is a hold-over from the earlier tests which required a 2 day wait before results were ready.

So my question is am I missing something? If not, they should allow return after a negative result of the test taken on the 5th day, right?

There are a number of issues here.

First your daughters negative test. This may indicate she has a new mutation. A lot of the tests can not detect the UK variant and others. This has been long known in the UK. We have found that out in Minnesota, and now our crack medical centers are finding the UK variant, is more widespread, but not dominant yet in Minnesota. However there is obvious worry, it will become the dominant strain, and we are due to have numbers worsen again, after really getting them down. At the moment our infection rates are continuing to fall, but slowly. I'm concerned this may change.

Now the quarantine. PCR test can, and do, miss infections and infectious people for various reasons.

What we do know is that very few people who have no symptoms after an infection are infectious after seven days and even less after 10. So the current rule for people who have been ill with Covid-19 is to quarantine for 10 days, or for 7 days with a negative PCR at 5 days. If they are medical workers and care home workers, they must quarantine the full 10 days no matter what.

You have to consider yourself exposed and need to quarantine.

On another note I'm concerned as to what is going on in Arizona. They obviously have a mutation of some type circulating. Their numbers are off the clock and they are having to put a quite disproportionate number of pediatric cases in hospital.

If they can not do genome studies in useful quantities, they need to be asking Porton Down for help pronto and getting specimens to them. They are acknowledged as the best reference lab for this work and have decoded more mutations than anyone else.

 

[KEW]

You have to consider yourself exposed and need to quarantine.

Yeah, I'm certainly considering myself potentially infected.

Thanks for explaining the "7 days quarantine with test, 10 days without" rule, that was, indeed, the bit I was missing!

Yesterday, GF was sore all over, especially the arms. This morning she feels better and the soreness is confined to her forearms - I guess because it is vascular, but the array of possible symptoms is crazy. Since she has improved, she is hopeful that this might be something else, but recognizes the need to assume Covid until testing provides more info!

I had not considered the prospect of my daughter's false negative actually being due to mutation!
Given she and her roommate had a common exposure, and her roommate tested positive (presumably with plain vanilla Covid), am I correct in believing she might likely be the original host to a new mutation that may be the end of humanity as we know it?
Such irony to have such fame, only for it to so quickly die out (along with humanity)!
Damn! Tough times!

(Maybe not something to joke about, but, then again, why not?)