TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Seriously, I have no life.
That's scary as shiiiiit. Sci-fi movie level scary.
Potentially it is. However, we need a lot more data to properly place this on the scale of the scare meter. However it requires the most urgent investigation and assessment that is for sure.
 
highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
We have potentially more bad news, and this may be very bad.

There are two new variants N501 and E484 from Brazil. One of these may present a very serious problem. The one that is causing huge concern in the UK is the E484.
This B.1.1.28(E484K) variant is causing a severe new outbreak in Manaus Brazil. Now Brazil has a team from Oxford as a lot of their studies are and have been in Brazil.

These are the concerns. It has caused a major change in the spike protein. It is causing a severe outbreak in the population infected as recently as June.
Manaus, in the Rio district, which was badly hit earlier. This outbreak is thought to have achieved 76% immunity in the population in Manaus.

Now patients are getting infected again with this new strain, and getting severely ill. This second epidemic is worse then the June epidemic. Hospitals are completely overrun and the region is out of oxygen.

There is great concern about this, at the highest levels of government in the UK, and among the scientific community there.

Porton Down have detected the N501 variant in the UK, but not E484K, but are actively searching for it.

They say the two South African variants and the N501 Brazil are similar in effect to the one found first in Sheppey. So that are all more infectious, respond to the vaccines but are much more transmissible. They have extreme concern about E484. There is a very high probability the vaccines will need an edit for this.

We really do need to ramp up our genome sequencing in the US, to at least the level of the UK. We are flying blind, and frankly this is dangerous.

As far as vaccine roll out, it is a disaster in the US and even worse in the EU, especially France, where it is at the level of farce.

However there are problems with manufacture. Astra/Zeneka are having problems with failed batches, slowing output. They are modifying their processes.
Pfizer also report problem and have slowed production while they apparently make changes to their production process.

Obviously this is serious and needs urgent investigation. There is obvious concern that we could return to a far worse state then we have been in previously.
It is this event in Brazil, that has personally been one of my nightmares.

China, is not playing straight with the WHO team and especially UK experts in granting appropriate access. This has been accompanied by a new government led disinformation campaign. They are putting about the risible assertion the virus did not originate in China and that it was imported in buns from abroad.

Opinion is starting to shift in UK circles that this virus may well have been man made by the Chinese. I have always had a suspicion about this. For me there have been too many unique features about it from the beginning. We just need to find the smoking gun, which is a very difficult task. Chinese obstruction may make it impossible. If Chinese obstruction and obfuscation continue, we should declare them 100% responsible and act accordingly and treat them as a hostile adversary.

There is a grass root campaign starting in the UK to avoid purchasing made in China products.
WHO scientists arrived in Wuhan yesterday, IIRC. They will be there for about a month, if the Chinese will allow that.

If it turns out that it was man made in China, we need to return them to their position pre-quasi capitalism- isolated from most of the world or, certainly, the US should stop doing business with them and lock/seize any accounts/assets they have here.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Samurai
Potentially it is. However, we need a lot more data to properly place this on the scale of the scare meter. However it requires the most urgent investigation and assessment that is for sure.
Thanks for posting. I can't help but wonder how many variants there are that we don't know about yet.

I certainly understand your point about insufficient data and the scare meter, but the reports coming out of Brazil right now are nothing short of terrifying. I just hope to HELL the vaccines are effective of against these new strains.

Complacency/pandemic fatigue seem to be setting in, perhaps at the worst time (I'll concede I've started to experience some pandemic fatigue myself).

>>>Refrigerated containers were brought to hospitals to help store bodies last week, as authorities declared a state of emergency. Jessem Orellana, from the Fiocruz-Amazonia scientific investigation institute, told the AFP news agency that some hospitals in Manaus had "run out of oxygen" with some centres becoming "a type of suffocation chamber" for patients. The researcher told Brazilian media she had received reports from the front-line of "dramatic" scenes playing out in some hospitals.

Reports in the daily Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper described desperate staff having to try to keep patients alive through manual ventilation. In a widely shared video from the region, a female medical worker asks the internet for help: "We're in an awful state. Oxygen has simply run out across the whole unit today."
"There is no oxygen and lots of people are dying," she says in the clip. "If anyone has any oxygen, please bring it to the clinic. There are so many people dying." . .

Felipe Naveca, deputy director of research at the state-run Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, told the BBC's South America correspondent Katy Watson that the new variant had evolved separately from those in the UK and South Africa, but that it showed some of the same characteristics: "Some of these mutations have been linked to increased transmission and that is of concern."

Mr Naveca said that they did not yet have any data to suggest that existing vaccines would be any less effective against the new variant. "We have to do a lot more sequencing of samples to answer that question," he said.<<<

 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Samurai
They say the two South African variants and the N501 Brazil are similar in effect to the one found first in Sheppey. So that are all more infectious, respond to the vaccines but are much more transmissible. They have extreme concern about E484. There is a very high probability the vaccines will need an edit for this.
If the vaccines are edited, can this typically be done in a way that still protects against the prior strains of the virus? The bits and pieces I'm finding online support your assertion concerning the probable need to edit the vaccines.

>>>Like the South African variant, the Brazilian one carries a mutation in the spike protein called E484K, which is not present in the UK strain. The E484K mutation has been shown to reduce antibody recognition, helping the virus to bypass immune protection provided by prior infection or vaccination.<<<

 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Seriously, I have no life.
If the vaccines are edited, can this typically be done in a way that still protects against the prior strains of the virus? The bits and pieces I'm finding online support your assertion concerning the probable need to edit the vaccines.

>>>Like the South African variant, the Brazilian one carries a mutation in the spike protein called E484K, which is not present in the UK strain. The E484K mutation has been shown to reduce antibody recognition, helping the virus to bypass immune protection provided by prior infection or vaccination.<<<

I watched the UK Prime Ministers news conference with the first medical officer, professor Chris Witty, and the chief scientific advisor Sir Patrick Valance. It was most enlightening.
There is grave concern about this new Brazilian mutation. The UK is closing ALL travel corridors in and out of the country until further notice. Returning UK citizens must have a negative test within 72 hours of embarkation. They will have a medical exam on entry and must self quarantine for 10 days, or have a negative test at 5 days. Police will check on all cases. They can not leave home for any reason.

Infections look as if they are on an early downturn with the recent intense and and economically and socially damaging restrictions. The UK has now vaccinated 4% of the population, 3,400,000 doses so far. Hospitalizations and deaths are up. ICU patients in London are now being set miles out of London as ICUs are full.
They are reporting a decline in the average age of ICU patients and deaths. The prime minister said, there are now young deaths. A direct quote: - "Lots of them."

These restrictions will stay in place until vaccinations are well advanced and numbers drop substantially. Restrictions will be released slowly. My take on this is that the whole world is in for another very difficult year. Unemployment claims in the UK are rising fast.

The need for an international response was stressed and talked about at length. Unless we can get the whole world vaccinated fast we will not get out of this, and things may get far worse. This was stressed by Professors Witty and Valence. If we don't, then we will see more mutations and devastating vaccine resistance, which we may already be seeing.

To answer Mr._Clark's question, Sir Patrick Valence addressed this at length. The mRNA vaccines can be edited quickly, but they still have to be manufactured. The mDNA vaccines can be edited, but it takes a bit longer. We will need a lot of vaccines as when a new strain emerges that is resistant we have to start with vaccination all over again. The new vaccines will have to still be effective against earlier strains.

The issue of approval was discussed, and these edits can NOT go through three phases of trials. If we do that, then we could lose two thousand years of civilization.
So governments will have to over rule the regulators. As soon as a new vaccine show lab efficacy by antibody and T-cell response, it has to be rolled out and studied in the population at large.

I think they were correct in addressing the need for International action. This could not have been emphasized more by the Prime Minister..

I think we need a worldwide war powers act, to build huge vaccine plants all over the world and the pants to supply needed ingredients and associated essential supplies.

In closing I have to say, that this crisis is far from over. I like everyone else was hoping we were getting to the beginning of the final scene. However there as to be concern we are only nearing the end of the fist act, and can not tell how many acts there are to follow. American news media need to be taking a broader international stance.

This thread has been first with hard news in the US far more often than it should have been.
 
R

RedCharles

Full Audioholic
A long time ago, I and many others thought the CFR was 6.5%+, but it's not even close to that figure. So let's chill out.

And get a grip. "Will adaptation precipitate more deaths? Unlikely. "

Because we're gonna be freaking fine. See Muller's Ratchet. Asexual reproduction results in deletions.

The idea that mutations would be MORE transmissible and MORE virulent is highly unlikely. I mean I've been buying lottery tickets, so I wouldn't rule out the odd chance entirely, but the odds that mutation would produce a more dangerous virus are slim to none, like winning 750 million dollars tonight. Life ain't some slick Hollywood script like the movie Contagion.

In fact, a data driven analysis that concludes that the virus is more transmissible might caused by less virulent virus rather than a "stickier" version of the virus. E.G. people who don't get very sick don't stay home.

What's very, very important to know is that everything short of welding people shut in their homes is a merely half-ass effort and doesn't have much effect on the spread of the virus. Which is to say let's get back to life already. If there is not Pareto Rule angle, why bother with the shutdowns?

Think about it, if public policy was decisive, Florida and Texas would be drowning in Corona, and California would be fine. Don't get me wrong, I'm still pro mask, but I'm anti-stupid. Masks are cheap. Shutdowns are expensive.

My biggest regret this year was not looking for opportunities in the midst of difficulty. I was so focused on the negative, on trying to prevent loss, that I failed to see the opportunities for gain. And there were many.
 
GO-NAD!

GO-NAD!

Audioholic Spartan
A long time ago, I and many others thought the CFR was 6.5%+, but it's not even close to that figure. So let's chill out.

And get a grip. "Will adaptation precipitate more deaths? Unlikely. "

Because we're gonna be freaking fine. See Muller's Ratchet. Asexual reproduction results in deletions.

The idea that mutations would be MORE transmissible and MORE virulent is highly unlikely. I mean I've been buying lottery tickets, so I wouldn't rule out the odd chance entirely, but the odds that mutation would produce a more dangerous virus are slim to none, like winning 750 million dollars tonight. Life ain't some slick Hollywood script like the movie Contagion.

In fact, a data driven analysis that concludes that the virus is more transmissible might caused by less virulent virus rather than a "stickier" version of the virus. E.G. people who don't get very sick don't stay home.

What's very, very important to know is that everything short of welding people shut in their homes is a merely half-ass effort and doesn't have much effect on the spread of the virus. Which is to say let's get back to life already. If there is not Pareto Rule angle, why bother with the shutdowns?

Think about it, if public policy was decisive, Florida and Texas would be drowning in Corona, and California would be fine. Don't get me wrong, I'm still pro mask, but I'm anti-stupid. Masks are cheap. Shutdowns are expensive.

My biggest regret this year was not looking for opportunities in the midst of difficulty. I was so focused on the negative, on trying to prevent loss, that I failed to see the opportunities for gain. And there were many.
For the sake of argument, we'll assume that you are correct - the lockdowns/shutdowns/restrictions are not helping, or aren't sufficiently effective to justify. We'll also assume that the virus will become less virulent as it mutates.

With those assumptions in mind, we return economic activity to some semblance of "normal". There is no question that already high infection rates will skyrocket for "x" period of time. Over that period, how many medical personnel and other front-line workers are you willing to sacrifice in order to give your investment portfolio a boost? How many at the lower end of the socioeconomic scale - who gain little from the markets - who are proportionately more vulnerable than the affluent are you willing to sacrifice? And, how many people with other medical conditions who can't get care because hospitals are overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients are you willing to sacrifice?

Restrictions are as effective as authorities' willingness to enforce and the public's willingness to follow. But, let there be no doubt, they are effective if those two variables are sufficiently high.
 
Alex2507

Alex2507

Audioholic Slumlord
How many at the lower end of the socioeconomic scale - who gain little from the markets - who are proportionately more vulnerable than the affluent are you willing to sacrifice?
That would depend on how much one has to lose in the markets, right?

Like I don't own stocks so it's okay with me if everybody lives.
 
highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
That would depend on how much one has to lose in the markets, right?

Like I don't own stocks so it's okay with me if everybody lives.
You need to look farther ahead- if most companies fail, you won't be able to go to a store to buy anything and there won't be anything to buy.
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Seriously, I have no life.
A long time ago, I and many others thought the CFR was 6.5%+, but it's not even close to that figure. So let's chill out.

And get a grip. "Will adaptation precipitate more deaths? Unlikely. "

Because we're gonna be freaking fine. See Muller's Ratchet. Asexual reproduction results in deletions.

The idea that mutations would be MORE transmissible and MORE virulent is highly unlikely. I mean I've been buying lottery tickets, so I wouldn't rule out the odd chance entirely, but the odds that mutation would produce a more dangerous virus are slim to none, like winning 750 million dollars tonight. Life ain't some slick Hollywood script like the movie Contagion.

In fact, a data driven analysis that concludes that the virus is more transmissible might caused by less virulent virus rather than a "stickier" version of the virus. E.G. people who don't get very sick don't stay home.

What's very, very important to know is that everything short of welding people shut in their homes is a merely half-ass effort and doesn't have much effect on the spread of the virus. Which is to say let's get back to life already. If there is not Pareto Rule angle, why bother with the shutdowns?

Think about it, if public policy was decisive, Florida and Texas would be drowning in Corona, and California would be fine. Don't get me wrong, I'm still pro mask, but I'm anti-stupid. Masks are cheap. Shutdowns are expensive.

My biggest regret this year was not looking for opportunities in the midst of difficulty. I was so focused on the negative, on trying to prevent loss, that I failed to see the opportunities for gain. And there were many.
The mutation that appears to have arisen on the Isle of Sheppey, Kent, is more transmissible. The UK scientists now have good data that it is 50% more transmissible. So each contact infects 1.5 times they number of people that the former strains. This was not associated with a decrease in disease severity, there is no doubt about that. However whether it causes more severe diseases in younger populations is a concern. Some in the UK think it is.

The E494K (B.1.1.28 ) Brazil is a huge concern, as the UK scientists say it has mutated to cause significant change in the S-spike protein. So the worry for vaccine resistance is high. Now large numbers of patients in Rio de Janeiro State are becoming infected with serious, and even fatal infections in a high number of people infected as late as last June, at the former peak there. All of the serious reinfections have been that mutation. So that raises enormous concern about the need to edit vaccines. I think this is enough concern to close all travel corridors world wide, similar to the UK closing theirs.

Yes, viruses mutate, they do. However those mutations can and do change the pattern of disease in significant ways.

Lastly I would emphasise the speed of rolling out vaccinations must not be forgotten. Slow roll out increases the chances of vaccine resistance, as it obviously encourages the proliferation of virus with mutations resistant to the vaccine. Vaccine resistance is well known, just like antibiotic resistance. The dynamics are similar.

Lastly I would point out that Brazil has been administering an untested, unproven Chinese vaccine for the last couple of months or so. They have been getting it free. So that is another unknown factor.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Samurai
A long time ago, I and many others thought the CFR was 6.5%+, but it's not even close to that figure. So let's chill out.

And get a grip. "Will adaptation precipitate more deaths? Unlikely. "
No one is asserting that the CFR is 6.5%.

The nature article was published in February 2020, apparently in response to media articles at that time speculating about future mutations that had not yet occurred. The gist of the article is "mutations are difficult to predict, so don't speculate." Ironically, in the same article the authors speculate (as you noted) "Will adaptation precipitate more deaths? Unlikely."

The UK variation has already occurred, and there's quite a bit of evidence showing that it is in fact more transmissible.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Samurai
Nytimes.com also has an interesting article about the B.1.1.7 variant:

>>>Researchers are most concerned about the eight B.1.1.7 mutations that change the shape of the coronavirus spike, which the virus uses to attach to cells and slip inside. Each spike is a group of three intertwined proteins:


Building one of these spike proteins typically takes 1,273 amino acids, which can be written as letters . . .<<<



 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Seriously, I have no life.
This is the news of the last few days.

The most serious information is from the NHS. One of the advantages of a national health system is rapid access to data from the system. The NHS say that one in 5 patients who were hospitalized with Covi-19 are readmitted within five months, and one in 8 of those readmitted die. It seems the most prevalent reason is cardiovascular complications.

I find this very ominous. This has been a great worry of Dr Fauci's as Covid-19 is at its very essence a vascular infection. This makes it all the more urgent to get on with vaccinations.

Like the US, the UK are finding vaccine production to be the limiting factor. The Oxford vaccine seems to be coming off the production line at pace now. It can be distributed much faster then the Pfizer vaccine. The Pfizer vaccine seems to have slowed production here and in Europe. As far as I can tell there is no clear reason why.

I would say that I think the Oxford Astra/Zeneka vaccine should get approval now in the US. The results of the UK regulator should be accepted. Millions of doses have now been given in the UK with no incidents at all. The mRNA vaccines cause more reactions, and also allergic reactions. Not enough to stop vaccinations. However they have halted vaccinations in California with a batch of the Moderna vaccine due to an excess number of allergic reactions. The fact that injecting large doses of mRNA would cause significant reaction was predicted even before trials. However the reaction is not nearly as bad as getting Covid-19.

The Oxford group are worried enough about the new E484K mutant in Brazil they are doing an edit for it, so they are ready to go if required. The UK has now immunixed 50% of its population over 80. They have immunized 5% of the population. The draconian restrictions are reducing the case incidents, but hospitalizations and deaths are still increasing, but hopefully will fall in a couple of weeks.

One interesting facet of the vaccination campaign is the use of the old medieval cathedrals as vaccination centers. There layout makes them ideal. There is nothing new under the son. Most of these cathedrals were actually designed to be handicapped accessible hundreds of years ago to receive the sick. They do not have stairs going up into them and their entry ways are on grade! The first to be used was Lichfield, and then Salisbury, as of yesterday Blackburn was opened.

Yesterday, the vaccinations were highlighted in Salisbury on the evening news. Everything was orderly and optimism high among those interviewed. Their glorious Willis organ was playing as people were being vaccinated. Salisbury has one of the very finest Willis organs.

One fact came to light yesterday. The UK have been building a novel vaccine plant in Oxford associated with the Jenner Institute. It should come on line later this year.
The government said this pandemic came a year too soon. This production center was designed to rapidly get vaccines into production within four months of a new virus like Covid-19 emerging. It is designed for novel vaccine platforms including mRNA and mDNA platforms. It will have a production capability of 70 million doses of vaccine per year. That is enough to vaccinate the whole UK population. Here is a picture of the facility.



They say they will assist all manufacturers of vaccines with development and especially edits.

So the idea is to have information sent back by virus hunters around the globe, and if one looks dangerous like happened in Wuhan, work would start on the vaccine immediately and have it ready to roll out within four months.

It seems clear to the UK government that you can not go through lengthy phase one, two and three trials in a serious pandemic like we have experienced. From now on vaccines need to be approved by system. So if a dangerous virus emerges a new vaccine will be designed right away. The Oxford vaccine was designed in 48 hours after they had the genome. As soon as a vaccine is known to produce an antibody and T-cell response to the offending virus, plans for production will start immediately and studies will be done as part of the roll out. It is judged that this will be a lower risk approach and save more lives than letting a virus rip for a year while studies are done, to say nothing of the devastating effect on the world economy and people's mental health.

This is certainly a bold concept and I wonder what members think about it.
 
Kvn_Walker

Kvn_Walker

Audioholic Field Marshall
Covid-19 is at its very essence a vascular infection.
I keep hammering this into people's heads over and over. >90% think it's respiratory like a cold or flu. We have no idea how bad our livers or kidney or hearts will be f'ed up in 5-10 years due to blood vessel corruption.

Wife x-rayed a guy in the hospital last week and commented on how his lungs were looking a lot better. The doc said, "yeah but he isn't going to make it." She couldn't understand until he explained that they guy had multiple strokes since being admitted and was essentially braindead.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Samurai
Reuters is reporting that Brazil's health minister stated that the COVID spike in Manaus is not tied to the new variant:

>>>Brazil’s health minister Eduardo Pazuello said on Monday that a spiking COVID-19 outbreak in the Amazonian city of Manaus was not tied to a new variant of the virus, and was instead the same coronavirus that caused the first wave of the disease.<<<


The AP is reporting that vaccinations with CoronaVac (the Chinese vaccine) have started in Manaus. It will be interesting to see how effective it is.


CoronaVac appears to somewhat less effective than other vaccines, but it's better than nothing (assuming it really does reduce hospitalizations).

>>>Researchers in Brazil reported that CoronaVac, developed by Beijing-based Sinovac, was 50.4% effective at preventing severe and mild COVID-19 in late-stage trials. That’s significantly lower than the 90% efficacies of several leading vaccines. . . . The Brazil trial recorded 252 cases of COVID-19 — 167 in people who received the placebo and 85 who were vaccinated — in some 9,200 healthcare workers. None of the participants who received the vaccine had to be hospitalized with severe COVID-19. If the data are confirmed, the vaccine could have a role in preventing disease in every country, says Paul Offit, a vaccine scientist at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia in Pennsylvania. . . . Delays in Brazil’s reporting of trial results meant that Turkey relied on early data from its own efficacy trial when it agreed to distribute CoronaVac, says Akova. In late December, the Turkey trial reported that CoronaVac was 91.25% effective at preventing symptomatic disease on the basis of 29 COVID-19 cases among 1,322 volunteers. . . . On the basis of the data reported so far, the vaccine seems safe, with only a few people experiencing mild symptoms such as headache. <<<

 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Samurai
One interesting facet of the vaccination campaign is the use of the old medieval cathedrals as vaccination centers. There layout makes them ideal. There is nothing new under the son. Most of these cathedrals were actually designed to be handicapped accessible hundreds of years ago to receive the sick. They do not have stairs going up into them and their entry ways are on grade! The first to be used was Lichfield, and then Salisbury, as of yesterday Blackburn was opened.

Yesterday, the vaccinations were highlighted in Salisbury on the evening news. Everything was orderly and optimism high among those interviewed. Their glorious Willis organ was playing as people were being vaccinated. Salisbury has one of the very finest Willis organs.

One fact came to light yesterday. The UK have been building a novel vaccine plant in Oxford associated with the Jenner Institute. It should come on line later this year.
The government said this pandemic came a year too soon. This production center was designed to rapidly get vaccines into production within four months of a new virus like Covid-19 emerging. It is designed for novel vaccine platforms including mRNA and mDNA platforms. It will have a production capability of 70 million doses of vaccine per year. That is enough to vaccinate the whole UK population. Here is a picture of the facility. . . .

They say they will assist all manufacturers of vaccines with development and especially edits.

So the idea is to have information sent back by virus hunters around the globe, and if one looks dangerous like happened in Wuhan, work would start on the vaccine immediately and have it ready to roll out within four months.

It seems clear to the UK government that you can not go through lengthy phase one, two and three trials in a serious pandemic like we have experienced. From now on vaccines need to be approved by system. So if a dangerous virus emerges a new vaccine will be designed right away. The Oxford vaccine was designed in 48 hours after they had the genome. As soon as a vaccine is known to produce an antibody and T-cell response to the offending virus, plans for production will start immediately and studies will be done as part of the roll out. It is judged that this will be a lower risk approach and save more lives than letting a virus rip for a year while studies are done, to say nothing of the devastating effect on the world economy and people's mental health.

This is certainly a bold concept and I wonder what members think about it.
Vaccinating in old cathedrals with organ music appeals to me.

Having a large vaccine facility ready to produce vaccines quickly strikes me as being a good idea. The next virus might be a lot worse. If nothing else, having the facilities in place provides the option to ramp up and vaccinate quickly.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Samurai
Wife x-rayed a guy in the hospital last week and commented on how his lungs were looking a lot better. The doc said, "yeah but he isn't going to make it." She couldn't understand until he explained that they guy had multiple strokes since being admitted and was essentially braindead.
The father of an acquaintance passed away a few months ago after contracting COVID which caused a severe stroke. His health had not been great before contracting COVID, but it wasn't terrible (e.g. he had been out golfing a few weeks before).
 

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