Coronavirus: When Would You Turn The Country Back On?

[lovinthehd]

I know you weren't. That was for everyone else. Generations just think differently. Nothing wrong with that at all. Keep each other in check.

Well I never took much my grandparents had to say to heart, they were blatant racists and supported much religious nonsense.

No one is going to close down airlines, except the banks. The airlines are going, and will go broke. There will not be enough bail out money to save them. Investors have run for cover. The only possible way to keep them going will be nationalization which I suppose could happen, but I doubt it will.

OTOH nationalization might put us on a more equal footing with others as many airlines have at least a partial national stake. Might also be time for them to shine as somewhat subsidized cargo carriers for now, still a problem of safety/spread but with more controllable numbers than carrying passengers.

 

[Danzilla31]

No one is going to close down airlines, except the banks. The airlines are going, and will go broke. There will not be enough bail out money to save them. Investors have run for cover. The only possible way to keep them going will be nationalization which I suppose could happen, but I doubt it will.

Hmmmm interesting thank you for the information.

I read a good thread on AVS about movie theaters probably not being able to survive this it's two different businesses but sounds like if they go under its for the same reasons

It's not just the money there losing now it's the fact that with people tightening there wallets and no one wanting to go out without a vaccine there no way for investors to know if they can even get back to sustainable business levels after this for them to take a risk

It's a dang shame really it's going to be sad to see this town after restrictions are lifted entire businesses could be shacked up

Heck Gene is hurting at audioholics I had to shell out some money to some family and friends that really needed it but I plan on donating after this next pay check

No way to I want to see this place go under

Heck chatting with you guys has been a lifeline since I've been bunkered down when I'm not at work

 

[lovinthehd]

Many businesses simply expect a certain cash flow to support operations....not a heck of a lot of reserve, altho some have very significant reserves on the other hand. I think without continuing revenue many simply will be bankrupted by overhead even with dumping employees. Just sort of the nature of business today. Those reliant mostly on internet of course are in a better position than some old school stuff. There's also our general tendency towards carefully timed logistics for supplies that can be severely upset in times like now.

 

[Danzilla31]

Gonna hit my city too. I think New Braunfels makes a ton on tourism. Don't even want to think about how many came through here in spring break.

However, we're close enough to each other that when all this craziness calms down we could get a beer. Would be nice to meet a member face to face.

Trying to live life better after this. Hopefully the rest of the country follows suit.

After my head injury years ago I felt grateful to feel that I like this guy a heck of a lot better then the one I was before

I really feel you on hoping I can become a better person for not just me but others from this and like you said living my life better

And you are on my friend on getting a beer after all this calms down we have another one of our members that lives 5 min away from me

It will be good to get to know personally another one of our members I'm looking forward to taking you up on that beer

 

[JerryLove]

I don't think comparing the coronavirus to bovine spongiform or Vibrio vulnificus even in the same general universe (or very honest, frankly). There's only one of those that threatened all of humanity within a few months of existing.

Both threatened humans. Neither has threatened humanity. Worst-case scenario for SARS-COV-2 is what, 10%? That's a terrible human tragedy, but it's not species or even society existential. We've survived worse (Spanish Flu comes to mind... AFAIK China was not involved).

Tell me with a straight face that the next bird flu won't come from chickens in the US, and the next swine flu won't come from pigs in the US... for certain. You can't.

As far as bovine spongiform goes, iirc it was openly investigated, things were shut down completely and production practices were altered to prevent it from happening again.

Most recent case was 2018; but that's not really the point.

You seem to be playing at a "no true Scotsman" fallacy. Perhaps if you defined the criteria that would make a pandemic a "problem pandemic".

 

[JerryLove]

No one is going to close down airlines, except the banks. The airlines are going, and will go broke. There will not be enough bail out money to save them. Investors have run for cover. The only possible way to keep them going will be nationalization which I suppose could happen, but I doubt it will.

Airlines have already received $50 billion from the federal government, along with tax breaks, and the whitehouse is suggesting they will get more.

The total operating revenue in 2018 for all US airlines combined was about $240 billion. So that's about 5x, but let's consider a few extra factors:

• Those costs are way down this year, less fuel and less maintenance.
• Presumably fewer airport fees (though now there are storage fees; those are, in many locations, quite low)
• Also possibly quite a bit less in salaries. I don't think the Airlines have kept all their workers, nor given their hourly workers all the hours.
• This is the present tax break. If there's a similar one in 3 months, we are on-track to fully subsidize.
• And there are other fiscal offerings (like the tax breaks).

Time will tell how it plays out; but the idea that air-travel in the US is ending, or that only from-scratch entirely new airlines will appear seems unlikely.

 

[herbu]

Your response is too full of linguistic booby traps to accept fully. Here's what I could accept:
Plenty of people propose waiting that long. Don't suggest they don't exist or should not be considered.
Wrong. No such agreement exists. There is significant debate over when & how loss of life and economic impact might be balanced.
I just did disagree. Declaring it agreed because no one responds is what I call a linguistic booby trap. Don't go there and you might be ignored less often.

No intentional booby traps. Just discussion.
A. Plenty of people propose keeping the country/economy shut down until Corona is completely eradicated? Really? I did not know that. The current shutdown would ultimately destroy the country if maintained. Do these people believe eradication is possible in the short term?

B. If we don't wait for 100% eradication, it means there IS a point where economics outweighs life. The fact that, "There is significant debate over when & how loss of life and economic impact might be balanced", means there IS a point. If there was no point, there would be no debate. I'm not sure what your disagreement is here. Balancing loss of life and economic impact requires a fulcrum on which to balance. And the fulcrum is the point.

C. I never said or even implied that no response equals agreement. I think your predilection is showing.

 

[herbu]

Note: not trying to take this political.

Oh right... I'm the one. You people...

 

[TLS Guy]

No intentional booby traps. Just discussion.
A. Plenty of people propose keeping the country/economy shut down until Corona is completely eradicated? Really? I did not know that. The current shutdown would ultimately destroy the country if maintained. Do these people believe eradication is possible in the short term?

B. If we don't wait for 100% eradication, it means there IS a point where economics outweighs life. The fact that, "There is significant debate over when & how loss of life and economic impact might be balanced", means there IS a point. If there was no point, there would be no debate. I'm not sure what your disagreement is here. Balancing loss of life and economic impact requires a fulcrum on which to balance. And the fulcrum is the point.

C. I never said or even implied that no response equals agreement. I think your predilection is showing.

Herbu, we can't really talk about easing restrictions until we understand the science. This is obviously a new vicious virus. Personally I don't think measures taken so far have been nearly restrictive enough.

We keep getting shocks and keep finding out this thing is worse then suspected.

There is now this very worrying development from South Korea.

This needs to be understood fast.

These are the possibilities.

1). Immunity is short and patients can become reinfected.

2). A variable number of patients and may be all can not clear the virus.

3). If those that can not clear the virus do they have a chronic viral infection like AIDS?

4). Is this a chronic relapsing infection in some or all?

Of these I fear 1 is the least likely.

The social and public health implications of the others is immense. It means we have to proceed with the utmost caution. So the implications are enormous. Are we going to have large numbers of chronically ill patients requiring chronic costly antivirals?

Then there is the further worrying development of the 30% at least cardiac involvement. In a webinar last week, an ICU physician from Bismark, described a 37 with very significant cardiac depression that was still present at discharge.

There is just so much we need to know before wide ranging loosening decisions can be made. One thing for sure, we can not loosen any screws in any community before we are well down the downside of the curve. There will likely be more peaks and the need for further restrictions. 2021 will continue to be a difficult year. Hopefully science can lead us into Churchill's "sunny uplands" some time in 2022. In the meantime we have to be very careful in how we proceed. Inviting infectious mayhem will not be an solution to the economy, but totally the reverse. The last thing we need is 'hunches' from you know who!

 

[Pogre]

Both threatened humans. Neither has threatened humanity. Worst-case scenario for SARS-COV-2 is what, 10%? That's a terrible human tragedy, but it's not species or even society existential. We've survived worse (Spanish Flu comes to mind... AFAIK China was not involved).

Tell me with a straight face that the next bird flu won't come from chickens in the US, and the next swine flu won't come from pigs in the US... for certain. You can't.

Most recent case was 2018; but that's not really the point.

You seem to be playing at a "no true Scotsman" fallacy. Perhaps if you defined the criteria that would make a pandemic a "problem pandemic".

How about if I use the word "contagion" to accurately describe Coronavirus. I don't think spongiform or Vibrio (the 2 things I took issue with you comparing to cv) are highly contagious and the reaction and subsequent actions taken after its discovery were far, far different from what happened here.

I may be a Scottsman, but you left your strawman in my front yard...

 

[highfigh]

Yeah problem is how can you go after them?

After the dust settles there pretty much going to be the reigning super power I'm afraid

They have a monopoly on manufacturing which I'm only now realizing what an advantage that is to the country that has it

Us converting to what we are now over the years has all to much exposed some issues which definetly didn't help our response to this

I mean if your one of the biggest baddest kids on the sandlot what do the rest of the kids do if they object when that kid tells you to piss off?

I apologize if this deviates from the question or point of this thread and will retract it if it does.

It's just @Pogre has brought up something I've kind off thought about myself I'm just playing it through my head and trying to look at all the angles

The World Court would need to find information showing that they knew it was a problem and when, then find out who prevented the rest of the World getting the facts. In normal life, that's like knowing someone will be poisoned, but doing nothing, and it's a prosecutable crime. Unless their communication was done in a closed network, verbally, on paper or some other destructible way that can't be traced, it should be possible to find something.

The US can make whatever it needs, but not by using some of the raw materials used in China because we have environmental restrictions. If it means that we need to slow the replacement cycle of consumer goods, so be it- I'm in favor of that anyway, because I think planned obsolescence is disgusting and the replacement of 'I want' by 'I need' is insanity. Someone needs a new item when the last one stops working, not because a newer version comes out that replaces it for reasons caused by the manufacturers. We have enough land that we can grow whatever we need, but some people will have to stop sitting on their asses and do manual labor- using immigrants to do the jobs because Americans refuse strikes me as odd when this country has a large number of community gardens and the people who grow their own don't make a lot of money.

If China ends up being the one super power, it will mean that Russia has given up and even they don't want to be second fiddle to China. The wild card, as I see it, is North Korea. If KJI has a bad enough tantrum, he might lob something to a place that ends life as we knew it because he's too stupid to see that it will mean he'll be among the dead.

What do the rest do when the bully tells them to piss off? If they were to think abut it, they would gang up; and kick the bully's ass but this time, it has to be done carefully because this bully is physically larger and it has nukes. However, we can stop buying from them. If only the US stops, they'll feel a lot of pain.

 

[panteragstk]

Oh right... I'm the one. You people...

Didn't say that you were either. I was simply saying that I wasn't trying to be political in that one specific post. Wasn't directed at anyone at all.

 

[Danzilla31]

Herbu, we can't really talk about easing restrictions until we understand the science. This is obviously a new vicious virus. Personally I don't think measures taken so far have been nearly restrictive enough.

We keep getting shocks and keep finding out this thing is worse then suspected.

There is now this very worrying development from South Korea.

This needs to be understood fast.

These are the possibilities.

1). Immunity is short and patients can become reinfected.

2). A variable number of patients and may be all can not clear the virus.

3). If those that can not clear the virus do they have a chronic viral infection like AIDS?

4). Is this a chronic relapsing infection in some or all?

Of these I fear 1 is the least likely.

The social and public health implications of the others is immense. It means we have to proceed with the utmost caution. So the implications are enormous. Are we going to have large numbers of chronically ill patients requiring chronic costly antivirals?

Then there is the further worrying development of the 30% at least cardiac involvement. In a webinar last week, an ICU physician from Bismark, described a 37 with very significant cardiac depression that was still present at discharge.

There is just so much we need to know before wide ranging loosening decisions can be made. One thing for sure, we can not loosen any screws in any community before we are well down the downside of the curve. There will likely be more peaks and the need for further restrictions. 2021 will continue to be a difficult year. Hopefully science can lead us into Churchill's "sunny uplands" some time in 2022. In the meantime we have to be very careful in how we proceed. Inviting infectious mayhem will not be an solution to the economy, but totally the reverse. The last thing we need is 'hunches' from you know who!

Man I get the importance of understanding the virus more but where are you getting this information?

I'm not finding any links to those type of findings anywhere and I'm not getting that same type of feedback from doctors that I know

Researchers are calling it SARS-2 and they are talking about its ability to go after the lungs and with some the heart with inflammation but not everything else your talking about

This thing has been out in there for months now wouldn't complications as serious as you are talking about be already brought up?

I mean if this thing would cause one to have an upper respiratory problem equivalent to having AIDS in its treatment management wouldn't the alarm bells have already gone off?

It's not like theyd be causing a panic everyone is worried enough as it is in fact publishing that would help them with the flattening off the curve and social distancing and extended lock downs plus there obligation to inform the public youd think that information would be out there by now

And what about the numbers showing those who have recovered I mean if this was that devastating wouldn't they be struggling with it as well?

I'm not trying to be argumentative here just trying to understand where this information is coming from

 

[Mikado463]

The US can make whatever it needs, but not by using some of the raw materials used in China because we have environmental restrictions.

I'm not sure it's quite that easy ......

China could restrict its export of rare-earth metals as a trade-war tactic. Here's what they are and why they're so crucial.

China controls a lion's share of the planet's rare-earth elements, which are hard to mine and used in everything from missile tech to smartphones.

www.businessinsider.com

and another perspective ...

China can’t control the market in rare earth elements because they aren’t all that rare

You can’t handle the truth (about rare earth elements)

www.theverge.com

as for making whatever we need, perhaps(someday), but then can we afford to buy it ?

 

[highfigh]

@JerryLove-

At the same time that we get rid of those to stop live bats from giving us Coronavirus varisions; the World court need to get rid of cows, which are the source of bovine bovine spongiform encephalopathy (and the way veal is made is inhumane... ditto patte). We need to get rid of oysters (Vibrio vulnificus). Have you seen how most chickens live their lives?

The cause of most problems is humans. Arrogant, ignorant and stupid. Let's see how they react to their kids being held in a box, being fed only milk and killed at their first birthday party. Force feeding geese to fatten the liver?

In fact, on the same basic grounds we are using to take China to task over their wet markets; we must end meat-eating or else be hypocrites.

If wild animals eat meat, why can't humans? This is a matter of ethics and humans aren't usually ethical, even if a person invented the word and its definition.

It's the idea of having laws... that some behavior must be regulated for the good of the whole.

I absolutely agree with this, but some lawmakers take it to extremes with their attitude of "We need to tell them what they can do in all ways, to protect them from themselves". Unfortunately, people seem to have lost the ability to consider the consequences of their actions, even when they constantly say they're sick of what is happening around them. The problem- you can tell people something is not allowed, but they'll continue to do it.

I don't see much distinction between forbidding an action and requiring one. At one extreme, we required people to serve in the military for the good of the country as a whole. It seems that if it's OK for me to ship you off to the Pacific to kill and die, it's OK for me to require you to take a health test.

Forbid vs require- in many cases it's only semantics; writing a law forbidding violence is different from requiring people to be peaceful in word, only. The possibility of all people obeying the requirement to be peaceful is nil because of human nature.

The issue of testing everyone should raise flags for everyone, so abuse of any information found won't occur. Aside from that, I agree that it's needed in order to slow and hopefully, stop the spread.

I'm not in favor of war, but when someone signs up for the military, they should understand that they'll be sent wherever they're needed and will do what they're told. If they can't agree to doing those things, they shouldn't be in the military or they should do something in a support capacity if they're willing and able. As far as being used for medical testing without knowledge/permission- absolutely not. I also think more needs to be done for those who return with disabilities, whether physical or mental. The more 'advanced' war becomes, the greater the need to end it.

Agree. Perhaps it's a good time to look at how to implement universal income.

Who determines who gets what- politicians, again? Will they be able to retroactively take from those who already have more? I'm pretty sure you wouldn't like that if it means that you'll lose what you have.

The death and disability rates in kids during the days of Polio are staggering. Thank goodness a vaccine was developed... now if we could just eradicate it like we did SmallPox.

It's not only the deaths from Polio, the deformities and disabilities were terrible and caused lifelong hell for the victims. Yes, it would be a great thing to eradicate Polio- not sure what's being done on that front, though.

COVID is new, but with the current technology, if a vaccine is possible, I'm sure they'll find one. Until then, people need to stay away from each other in order to prevent spreading it.

 

[highfigh]

I'm not sure it's quite that easy ......

China could restrict its export of rare-earth metals as a trade-war tactic. Here's what they are and why they're so crucial.

China controls a lion's share of the planet's rare-earth elements, which are hard to mine and used in everything from missile tech to smartphones.

www.businessinsider.com

and another perspective ...

China can’t control the market in rare earth elements because they aren’t all that rare

You can’t handle the truth (about rare earth elements)

www.theverge.com

as for making whatever we need, perhaps(someday), but then can we afford to buy it ?

What did we do before rare earth materials were available?

If we could trick them into selling this material to us in the same way we tricked the USSR into selling Titanium, it might not be so bad.

I guess we need to re-examine our definition of 'need', don't we?

 

[clamatowas]

The USA doesn't need the hard hit cities to get going.

We are all ready in a win situation because the CDC is bad at it's job.

Their predictions where up to 4x worse than reality.

We ended up requiring way less hospital beds. Of the predicted deaths was downgraded from 200,000 to 65,000.

Much lower percentages of people requiring hospitalization, lower percentages of people who are hospitalized turned into fatalities.

However keeping the economy shut down to a point where I can't recover because more issues, an absolutely more death in the long run than this virus has so far.

Counties with lower populations should open. Many these counties are agriculture or factory work.

Also opening up doesn't mean that you neglect all safety precautions.

 

[highfigh]

Could you send a memo to the rest of your Boomer generation to stay the hell inside? My wife was talking to her mom the other day (your age) and she talks like she gets it. We even had her drop stuff on our porch and wave to the kids from the front window, but she still says "we went to Costco" and other places. She doesn't get it. My father in law uses a CPAP and my wife's grandma lives with them and is in her 80's. High risk people just going around like it's nothing. Drives me nuts.

Don't they get we're doing all this to protect them?

80 year-olds ARE NOT 'boomers'!

Not to diminish the value of your parents/in-laws, but they have already beat the odds WRT life expectancy if they're in their 80s. Ever think to ask if they're afraid of the consequences of contracting this?

 

[highfigh]

The USA doesn't need the hard hit cities to get going.

We are all ready in a win situation because the CDC is bad at it's job.

Their predictions where up to 4x worse than reality.

We ended up requiring way less hospital beds. Of the predicted deaths was downgraded from 200,000 to 65,000.

Much lower percentages of people requiring hospitalization, lower percentages of people who are hospitalized turned into fatalities.

However keeping the economy shut down to a point where I can't recover because more issues, an absolutely more death in the long run than this virus has so far.

Counties with lower populations should open. Many these counties are agriculture or factory work.

Also opening up doesn't mean that you neglect all safety precautions.

If you can come up with a way to prevent entry to those lower population counties by those who have this, start talking. Agricultural and factory jobs usually require people from cities to travel by mass transit and that means many people will be in close proximity- that's a petri dish.

The places where people don't need to work close to others are the ones that could re-start, as long as they're good about keeping everything clean.

 

[clamatowas]

If you can come up with a way to prevent entry to those lower population counties by those who have this, start talking. Agricultural and factory jobs usually require people from cities to travel by mass transit and that means many people will be in close proximity- that's a petri dish.

The places where people don't need to work close to others are the ones that could re-start, as long as they're good about keeping everything clean.

It's like this, NYC, LA, Boston all have a crazy pop Densities
Here are all the numbers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population_density

Mont cities in America don't even come close to this. If 70% of people did social distancing in these high density cities.. there are still more people out in the streets then no social distancing in other cities and counties, so why are they asked to act the same when they are not the same?

Throw in the fact that most of the younger generation have little to no reaction.. There is no reason to treat everything the same.

Each state is free to do their own thing some are doing a better job at this then others.. In these low pop densities areas place rules that protect the high risk, 3 days a week for 2 hours stores are only open to elderly. Put limits on hospital and retirement home visits. Instead of paying for 100% of the work force to not work. Let local agencies and local business target high risk to employees to work from home or not at all and still get a paycheck.

I understand this will 100% lead to more infections and more death then leaving everything closed. However by what %. What % of people will loose their will to live as their life is destroyed around them? How many business will fail causing retirements to go up and increasing the Federal burden for a generation? People with out jobs do three things in high rates. Have more kids, commit crime, turn to drugs.

I 100% agree when Trump said the cure cannot be worse then the disease.