Coronavirus

[mtrycrafts]

...

Italy can no longer look after its older generation so the death panel has been convened already in another country.

For real, this time.

 

[Irvrobinson]

Although he's suggested it, when the infection rates show no sign of subsiding by Easter, dropping the restrictions probably won't happen. And, since a huge proportion are administered by individual states, how "back to work" would the US be?

It's a state-by-state question. For some states that have limited urban populations, like Oregon, Idaho, New Mexico, etc, there are politicians who believe that closing restaurants in, say, Portland is a good idea, but may be overkill in Burns.

 

[mtrycrafts]

Yes, but he still owns the company, so as I understand it he can't benefit.

Let's hope so.

 

[mtrycrafts]

On the plus side, world pollution levels have dropped.

Tremendously.

 

[ryanosaur]

Yes, but his hotels are in a blind trust, right?

Yes, but he still owns the company, so as I understand it he can't benefit.

They are not in a BLIND trust. They are in a trust, though.

Trump Still Makes Money From His Properties. Is This Constitutional? (Published 2018)

Two lawsuits allege President Trump has violated the Constitution’s anticorruption clauses by continuing to own a business that receives payments and other benefits from foreign and domestic governments.

www.nytimes.com

 

[mtrycrafts]

So it is a Progressive-Leftist conspiracy to stop global warming!

Yes! Who spilled the beans?
Close all the doors, interrogate everyone.

 

[Irvrobinson]

They are not in a BLIND trust. They are in a trust, though.

Trump Still Makes Money From His Properties. Is This Constitutional? (Published 2018)

Two lawsuits allege President Trump has violated the Constitution’s anticorruption clauses by continuing to own a business that receives payments and other benefits from foreign and domestic governments.

www.nytimes.com

In this case "blind" means that he's not making business decisions. Many members of Congress have holdings in so-called blind trusts too.

My former federal attorney spouse thinks that travel limitations and various other mandates (e.g. no evictions, etc.) are almost certainly unconstitutional. Remember, the Constitution is an entirely negative document; the federal government may not do this or not do that. Most of the exceptions are the amendments that assign powers and authorities to the various branches of government.

 

[mtrycrafts]

They are not in a BLIND trust. They are in a trust, though.

Trump Still Makes Money From His Properties. Is This Constitutional? (Published 2018)

Two lawsuits allege President Trump has violated the Constitution’s anticorruption clauses by continuing to own a business that receives payments and other benefits from foreign and domestic governments.

www.nytimes.com

But, who has credibly confirmed his properties are in a Blind trust. Those stacks of paper where he showed his trust at a press conference is not evidence. His claim is not evidence.

 

[Verdinut]

Thanks for the link. I've read it twice so far, and I'm comparing it to the original paper published in The British Medical Journal (BMJ).

In short, I didn't like the Science Daily's version of the conclusions, or the original BMJ paper at all. My objections are based on conclusions that I believe are unwarranted based on weak correlations with multiple studies. And there also are statistical weaknesses brought on too much variation in the overall participant populations among 25 different studies.

This paper was what is known as a meta-analysis. It compared a large number of different studies and reviews of studies. It mentioned over 11,321 participants, of whom they had access to individual participant data (IPD) for 10,933 (97%). But there is a major problem because those groups of participants were not all from the same or similar enough participant population. To make any meaningful conclusions that have statistical significance, the groups of participants must represent at least a similar subsets of the overall population. I realize that this kind of statistical significance problem puts most people to sleep, but in clinical studies, it is of enormous importance. I think they failed at that.

This analysis included 25 clinical trials conducted in 14 countries including the UK, USA, Japan, India, Afghanistan, Belgium, Italy, Australia and Canada. Did they all study the same or very similar population of participants?

Furthermore, the 25 individual trials yielded conflicting results, with some reporting that vitamin D protected against respiratory infections, and others showing no effect.

A total of 5 aggregate data meta-analyses incorporating data from up to 15 primary trials have been conducted, of which 2 report statistically significant protective effects for Vitamin D, and 3 report no statistically significant difference in effects.

If 5 previous reviews produced conflicting results, 2 reported protective effects and 3 didn’t, how can this group of authors find agreement across the board by using different number crunching methods? Despite that, the Science Daily report claims these results are “worthy of serious debate”. The BMJ paper didn’t use such strong language, and made more modest claims about the results.

Here is my biggest problem. The Science Daily report said “Overall, the reduction in risk of acute respiratory infection induced by vitamin D was on a par with the protective effect of flu vaccine against flu-like illnesses.” If you dismiss yearly flu vaccines as ineffective, how can you choose Vitamin D supplements over the vaccines based on efficacy? I don’t see how both can be true.

This BMJ paper was published in 2017. I don’t read the vitamin supplement literature, but I wonder if anyone else has tried to follow up on this report. I’d like to see a clinical trial testing 4 groups of similar participants with the following:

• Group 1 receives the yearly flu vaccine.
• Group 2 receives Vitamin D supplements.
• Group 3 receives both flu vaccine and Vitamin D supplements.
• Group 4 receives neither vaccine nor vitamin. They are the control arm.

Test all of them for any reduction of risk of acute respiratory infections.

I know there is also a problem with most studies as they don't take into account the lifestyles of the people being tested. What is their diet, do they smoke, do they excessively consume alcohol, exercise etc. There are so many factors to consider.

But you are most likely aware of one of the most fragrant example of a biased study, the one presented by Ancel Keys and his diet-heart hypothesis in 1960. It strongly suggested that Americans would reduce their risk of heart disease by reducing the fat in their diets.

 

[mtrycrafts]

In this case "blind" means that he's not making business decisions. Many members of Congress have holdings in so-called blind trusts too.

My former federal attorney spouse thinks that travel limitations and various other mandates (e.g. no evictions, etc.) are almost certainly unconstitutional. Remember, the Constitution is an entirely negative document; the federal government may not do this or not do that. Most of the exceptions are the amendments that assign powers and authorities to the various branches of government.

Wouldn't the National emergency declaration cover that?

 

[JerryLove]

Here's a particularly diabolical conspiracy theory (likely hurt by the number powerful elite currently sick).

Let's say you are the powerful elite and there's this pandemc. You want it over. Moreso, you are worried that, when you get sick, the hospitals might be too full to get into (say: you aren't PotUS who gets tested without symptoms while others cannot).

How do you make the world safe again, or at least the hospitals open?

What if everyone else already had it. Herd immunity (or at least no longer overwhelmed hospitals).

What path or process could a government take to make everyone sick? How about encouraging everyone to do the things that get yous sick (you know... to get the economy moving).

 

[JerryLove]

Remember, the Constitution is an entirely negative document; the federal government may not do this or not do that. Most of the exceptions are the amendments that assign powers and authorities to the various branches of government.

What does this false belief persist?

Some bits chosen almost at random just from the first article.Tell me which are "entirely negative"

"The House of Representatives shall be composed of Members chosen every second Year by the People of the several States, and the Electors in each State shall have the Qualifications requisite for Electors of the most numerous Branch of the State Legislature. "

"The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing Senators.

The Congress shall assemble at least once in every Year, and such Meeting shall be on the first Monday in December, unless they shall by Law appoint a different Day."

"
The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

To borrow Money on the credit of the United States;

To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;

To establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization, and uniform Laws on the subject of Bankruptcies throughout the United States;

To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;

To provide for the Punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States;

To establish Post Offices and post Roads;

To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;

To constitute Tribunals inferior to the supreme Court;

To define and punish Piracies and Felonies committed on the high Seas, and Offences against the Law of Nations;

To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;

To raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years;

To provide and maintain a Navy;

To make Rules for the Government and Regulation of the land and naval Forces;

To provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions;

To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the Militia, and for governing such Part of them as may be employed in the Service of the United States, reserving to the States respectively, the Appointment of the Officers, and the Authority of training the Militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress;

To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the Acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of the Government of the United States, and to exercise like Authority over all Places purchased by the Consent of the Legislature of the State in which the Same shall be, for the Erection of Forts, Magazines, Arsenals, dock-Yards, and other needful Buildings;-And

To make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into Execution the foregoing Powers, and all other Powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any Department or Officer thereof."

Wow. Not a single one of those is "negative". Shall I go on?

 

[ryanosaur]

Here's a particularly diabolical conspiracy theory (likely hurt by the number powerful elite currently sick).

Let's say you are the powerful elite and there's this pandemc. You want it over. Moreso, you are worried that, when you get sick, the hospitals might be too full to get into (say: you aren't PotUS who gets tested without symptoms while others cannot).

How do you make the world safe again, or at least the hospitals open?

What if everyone else already had it. Herd immunity (or at least no longer overwhelmed hospitals).

What path or process could a government take to make everyone sick? How about encouraging everyone to do the things that get yous sick (you know... to get the economy moving).

Ooh!
And Chem-Trails!

 

[mtrycrafts]

Ooh!
And Chem-Trails!

That's it.

 

[lovinthehd]

But, who has credibly confirmed his properties are in a Blind trust. Those stacks of paper where he showed his trust at a press conference is not evidence. His claim is not evidence.

Isn't it just run by his kids now? He never talks to them, right?

 

[JerryLove]

Isn't it just run by his kids now? He never talks to them, right?

It's well established that Trump's properties are not in a blind trust.

Carter sold his peanut farm so it wouldn't look like he might favor a policy that favored peanut prices (or any other conflict). Trump continues his projects in China and Russia; both of whom have given him concessions coincidentally timed with the US giving *them* concessions.

The kids were in China at one point literally advertising that they were selling access to the president.

Also: since they literally have his name on them; he cannot have opacity into what benefits him.

 

[Irvrobinson]

What does this false belief persist?

Some bits chosen almost at random just from the first article.Tell me which are "entirely negative"

"The House of Representatives shall be composed of Members chosen every second Year by the People of the several States, and the Electors in each State shall have the Qualifications requisite for Electors of the most numerous Branch of the State Legislature. "

"The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing Senators.

The Congress shall assemble at least once in every Year, and such Meeting shall be on the first Monday in December, unless they shall by Law appoint a different Day."

"
The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

To borrow Money on the credit of the United States;

To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;

To establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization, and uniform Laws on the subject of Bankruptcies throughout the United States;

To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;

To provide for the Punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States;

To establish Post Offices and post Roads;

To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;

To constitute Tribunals inferior to the supreme Court;

To define and punish Piracies and Felonies committed on the high Seas, and Offences against the Law of Nations;

To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;

To raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years;

To provide and maintain a Navy;

To make Rules for the Government and Regulation of the land and naval Forces;

To provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions;

To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the Militia, and for governing such Part of them as may be employed in the Service of the United States, reserving to the States respectively, the Appointment of the Officers, and the Authority of training the Militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress;

To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the Acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of the Government of the United States, and to exercise like Authority over all Places purchased by the Consent of the Legislature of the State in which the Same shall be, for the Erection of Forts, Magazines, Arsenals, dock-Yards, and other needful Buildings;-And

To make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into Execution the foregoing Powers, and all other Powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any Department or Officer thereof."

Wow. Not a single one of those is "negative". Shall I go on?

I said the exceptions are assigning powers and authorities to the branches of government. That's in Article I, which is everything you quoted. Then there's the rest of the Constitution. Did you read that Jerry? Like almost every other article and amendment? Most of what defines personal rights are expressed as what the government shall not do, and I was referring specifically to the restriction of rights.

Shall I go on?

By the way, as long as I'm yielding to temptation and responding to you (I should know better), your reply about supercomputing some yards back was incomprehensible. There is no such language as "Java 2020", and supercomputing would never use Java anyway because it's an interpreted language with dynamic heap-managed memory allocation requiring periodic garbage collection. And that whole discussion of asynchronous applications and bots was silly. You should stick to what you know, which is obviously not the Constitution either.

 

[KEW]

It depends where you live. 30,000 positives in New York means most know someone with it unless they are in a very tiny town. Wyoming not so much. Given the doubling time it will be true for all by the end of April I expect.

I don't know, we see some behaviors in those states that have not yet had much Corona virus activity that makes it seem like they are doing their best to catch up with the rest of the country to make sure all the s*** hits the fan at the same time!

 

[mtrycrafts]

In Canada, we have naturopathic doctors who also are biologists. So, we should not generalize. Also, there are some medicine doctors who are quacks, but we cannot say that all physicians are quacks. I consider the ones who prescribe pills for any ailment as quacks.

Does that make them legitimate? Hardly.

 

[TLS Guy]

I have to say that I'm distressed as to how this discussion has degenerated into inconsequential drivel.

Let me say right now that this pandemic is actually turning out to far worse than anything I imagined.

The death rates in Italy and Spain have now both surpassed China and both have much smaller populations.

The mortality in France and the UK are going up smartly. The UK is under lock down.

New York is a disaster with other areas like New Orleans following. According to Dr Birx at the news briefing today the mortality in New York is running at 3.1% which is very high. The bodies are stacking up.

JAMA this evening has just sent a paper from China now showing this miserable virus is cardiopathic. They show that 20% of their more serious cases have cardiac damage. If this is confirmed this has enormous implications going forward.

The UK and others are reporting more serious illness in the young including babies now. The UK has a very seriously sick 6 month old with no underlying disease. They have lost a previously healthy and athletic 21 year old. In the US a 17 your old athlete has died of the disease. The UK are noting serious illness in pregnant women

The mortality in New York is going to rise astronomically as they need 30,000 more ventilators according to the governor and can only obtain 400. They are now considering ventilating 2 patients with one ventilator. This is very suboptimal care.

In Minnesota we are going under lock down for at least 2 weeks with compulsory shelter in place orders for all but essential services.

There are now plans being drawn up to convert the huge US bank stadium into a huge temporary hospital.

London that is reeling from this. The UK is now under a shelter in place order. The UK has taken a leaf out of China's play book, and built a new 4000 bed hospital in the old East End docklands on the North bank of the Thames just down River from Canary Wharf. They hope to have this on line Monday or Tuesday and it can't come soon enough.

I have a horrible feeling this nightmare will now go on until we have an effective vaccine unless immunity proves to be very long term and we can get to 70% herd immunity at least. However we will still need a vaccine.

Any Trump speak of easing restrictions prematurely is totally amoral. It is now fatuous to compare this outbreak to any influenza out break. This is far, far more serious. Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus leader of the WHO told Trump off good and proper today without naming names, but everyone know who he was talking about!

Whatever we do now the worlds economy is going to be left shattered. Life form here on out will be different for all of us in ways we can not imagine now.

I spoke with a very good friend of mine who was one of our general surgeons. We arrived in Grand Forks on the same day and worked very closely together for 40 years.

He has been in touch with some of our former residents. According to him he thinks the skills of retired ICU physicians will be required before this is over.

I'm high risk for this virus and I have intended to stay in total isolation until this pandemic is in the rear view mirror even if it takes over 12 months. However may be my plans will have to change.

After this is over biology must take precedence over economics. Actually a lot of us are not surprised by this catastrophe. The Corona family of viruses have shown a very worrying tendency to be able to jump species over the last 20 years. Historically viruses have been highly species specific. We now have a very worrying trend. The worry is in infectious disease circles that we may "have seen nothing yet!"

One last point. Be cautious about ordering from Amazon now. There are early indicators the virus is probably rampant in the Amazon system.

This virus survives 24 hours on cardboard and paper and 3 days on plastic.

My wife and I were worried about this before today's reports. If the package is non urgent we handle it with gloves and put it into the garage for the appropriate time handling it with gloves. All packages are also disinfected.