Matthew J Poes

Matthew J Poes

Audioholic Chief
Staff member
Enough gloomy forecasts, for at least one day. I know things can look worse as they approach through the windshield, than they look afterwards when watching through the rear view mirror. But when you have to plan ahead for life or death matters affecting large populations, one cannot afford to be a rosy-eyed optimist without very good evidence. And with a pandemic involving a novel virus, we cannot have any evidence in advance, good or bad.

Have any of you seen those computer generated graphic models that depict the outer surface of the COVID-19 virus? They show the phospholipid envelope dotted with the envelope proteins (depicted in red) floating in the lipid bilayer. I think they're pretty cool lookng. Most likely, these envelope proteins will be the biological material that vaccines will be directed against.
View attachment 34760

New images are now available. Instead of a computer prediction based on DNA sequence data, the new images are made with laboratory grown coronavirus particles, using the latest 3D ultrahigh resolution scanning electron microscope methods. As you zoom in, startling details of the envelope protein are revealed.
View attachment 34761
hah oh man. That isn’t helping. Even if it made me laugh.

I’m sure everyone knows this, but those spikes coming out are what gives it the name corona virus. Corona meaning crown. It looked like a crown under a microscope.
 
Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Warlord
hah oh man. That isn’t helping. Even if it made me laugh.
I'm glad to know you read & appreciated it.
I’m sure everyone knows this, but those spikes coming out are what gives it the name corona virus. Corona meaning crown. It looked like a crown under a microscope.
Thank you for relieving me of the job of being the Capt. Obvious around here. It's a tough job, but someone has to do it ;)
 
Matthew J Poes

Matthew J Poes

Audioholic Chief
Staff member
I think the desire to assume that this is an overreaction is natural and logical. It has a sort of Bayesian logic to it. If we’ve never seen a response like this before, and superficially this seems no worse than any other pandemic in recent memory, how can this be a rationale response?

I think the problem lies with a lack of understanding of the virus itself and why it’s concerning health experts. That concept is pretty abstract.

as a certain Politician from Wisconsin pointed out, if 97-99% of the population would be fine, what’s the big deal?

the problem is that mischaracterizes the risk and what we are trying to prevent. First he mischaracterizes the death as 10’s of thousands. It would actually be 100’s of thousands of not millions. It’s also important to remember that the total cases and total deaths is almost certainly an under reporting of realty. It’s impossible to surveil everyone and our surveillance to date has been really poor.

first, this has the spreadebility of measles. It’s far worse than any common flu. Worse yet, it has complications that increase its deadliness. It was expected that as more data came in the mortality rate would drop. We haven’t seen definitive proof of that yet. On top of that, we are finding it is hospitalizing a lot more people than initial reports from China lead experts to believe would be the case. They aren’t dying, but they probably would without care.

for one thing, the current 3-4% mortality rate being reported is based on still low total numbers and with most medical services not yet overwhelmed. We do know it can spread easily enough to overwhelm medical systems and when that happens the mortality rate jumps. Based on a study I linked previously, it suggest at risk populations have a mortality rate that is more like 30% or more.

what that tells us is that the overall mortality rate for this would go up dramatically if our hospitals became overwhelmed and were unable to provide even basic support.

but it gets worse. When that happens, the entire ability to provide medical care for all needs is destroyed. That means that things like infant mortality rate will go up, mortality associated with cancer, heart disease, or diabetes will go up. Things we can currently treat and manage we won’t be able to treat and manage anymore. This would cause a domino effect where doctors begin to get sick, along with nurses, further eroding our basic healthcare system.

this is the path that we would head down with any virus that is both relatively deadly and highly contagious. Based on what we know, we have not had a virus that is both this contagious and this deadly in our lifetime.

we can’t wait until we see strong evidence of this problem to react. By then it is far too late. We must take measures to prevent it now. It’s already clear that current measures have not been enough (or at least measures up until last week were not enough).

it’s scary to think we could be facing a pandemic the likes of which the world has not seen in a really long time. This could go the way of many recent pandemics, but evidence to date suggests that isn’t true.

Of course we can’t panic either. It doesn’t help. We need to act decisively. Take it seriously. Socially isolate like none of us have ever done before. But recognize that if we do that and do it well, we can very likely stop this virus in its track.

part of that decisive action needs to be a means to ensure we can quarantine but at the same time keep aspects of the economy going. We must continue the flow of food, toilet paper, etc. we must keep hospitals going. Police, fire,etc. Those two can coexist. We can largely isolate from each other whole still making sure that the workforce needed to keep critical aspects of society running are able to do their job. I feel like those who reject what is going on might see this as a binary choice. That either everyone must shelter in place or everyone must go back to work. It doesn’t need to be like that. If most people socially isolate, then those who need to continue to do critical jobs are at less risk of getting the virus and spreading it.

and just to make clear, this is not pointed at any specific member of the forum. Just a general comment about what I think is going on psychologically.
 
Verdinut

Verdinut

Audioholic Spartan
At present, we have to restrain our traveling to the necessities and several activities are suspended.

But when this Covid-19 episode is considered as contained, we will finally be able to greatly enjoy what we've been missing for a while. Let's think about the future without neglecting the seriousness of the current situation.
 
JerryLove

JerryLove

Audioholic Ninja
the problem is that mischaracterizes the risk and what we are trying to prevent. First he mischaracterizes the death as 10’s of thousands. It would actually be 100’s of thousands of not millions. It’s also important to remember that the total cases and total deaths is almost certainly an under reporting of realty. It’s impossible to surveil everyone and our surveillance to date has been really poor.
Half the population infected (3.5 billion or so) multiplied by 1% mortality (which seems optimistic) would be 35 million dead.

Getting a little more pessimistic. Imagine 70% of the population gets it (5 billion) and that overwhelmed hospitals give you a 3% mortality overall and you are talking 150 million dead.

first, this has the spreadebility of measles.
R0 on measles is 12-18. I haven't seen a number more than half that on SARS-COV-2. Can you cite?
 
panteragstk

panteragstk

Audioholic Warlord
I wonder how he would react if his family member/s were the 1% to 3%?
What's crazy is that if that figure is based off total population, it isnt and the US is at 327 million, then we're looking at 3-9 million dead.

Not sure how he can say that's "not a big deal".
 
mtrycrafts

mtrycrafts

Seriously, I have no life.
What's crazy is that if that figure is based off total population, it isnt and the US is at 327 million, then we're looking at 3-9 million dead.

Not sure how he can say that's "not a big deal".
Mind boggling by the ignorant.
 
KEW

KEW

Audioholic Overlord
Not trying to get political, and please don't start that in this thread again, but this article is not for the Trump supporters. It will just make you mad.

Cracked on how this administration screwed this whole thing up badly.
It would be ironic if Trump did a really great job of stepping up (or stepping aside) and managing resources for the remainder of the pandemic; and, ultimately, convinces the public that health care is best managed by the government...
I don't believe it, but nor would I have believed that Trump would be encouraging a socialistic program of giving everyone a check and that it is liable to actually happen!
And we all thought Andrew Yang was maybe "over the top"!
 
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D

Danzilla31

Audioholic Spartan
Okay venting aside real talk

From what I can gather from here and everywhere else and correct me if I'm wrong

Is A) we get lucky and either slow the curve or manage to get this under control with extreme measures we are trying to get started

B) This may as some have stated fizzle out I believe some viruses have done that before but it's looking unlikely

C) Everything we are doing now we should have down already and were late to the game

If option C and it's out in the wild were screwed on containment unless the extreme measures in option A are implemented combined with some lessons learned from China and Italy on ramping up extra hospitals (if we can find the staff) then it might get contained otherwise it's going to run its course

Extra insight I've seen several articles were it's looking like a LOT of young people just feel it's not going to affect them so they don't give a sh@$! Which really is not going to help with option A.

So in a nutshell were going to have to implement option A we have too the alternative is just unthinkable to gamble with people's lives to me is just morally and spiritually wrong and we won't really know for sure we're this puts us until they are saying around August correct?

Personally I feel we already f@$!ed up containment so I'm praying for option A to work. not just to stop the curve but to stop the hysteria it's still ridiculous the reaction some people are having

The problem with modern society in general is that you can be sure they will react can you trust them to react in the right way? Big question right now that's a big question

And the press is still ridiculous for every accurate article out there theres 3 more just spouting off nonsense. A senator the other day I won't go into full details just spouted off some horrible statement blaming this all on China due to there eating animals? Dude we eat animals the next virus might come from us if that's the case. And just the blaming of Trump and this and that like I said when I vented I'm sick of that type of press just sick of it

The time to blame is gone long gone politics all that its too late for any of that it's in the country and we either work together rationally or suffer the consequences

Anyway that's my take on everybody's feedback and what I can get from the news in and out of America when you dig past all the political and idiotic b.s.
 
mtrycrafts

mtrycrafts

Seriously, I have no life.
Just remember, yesterday he stated:
“I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.”

But, reality is soooo different:


He can only go to the center of the earth digging his hole.
 
panteragstk

panteragstk

Audioholic Warlord
It would be ironic if Trump did a really great job of stepping up (or stepping aside) and managing resources for the remainder of the pandemic; and, ultimately, convinces the public that health care is best managed by the government...
I don't believe it, but nor would I have believed that Trump would be encouraging a socialistic program of giving everyone a check and that it is liable to actually happen!
And we all thought Andrew Yang was maybe "over the top"!
I hope he does. Stranger things have happened.
 
JerryLove

JerryLove

Audioholic Ninja
Just remember, yesterday he stated:
“I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.”

But, reality is soooo different:


He can only go to the center of the earth digging his hole.
Dunno. In common fiction: where do you end up if you did a hole all the way through the Earth. Dig a hole to... somewhere...
 
panteragstk

panteragstk

Audioholic Warlord
Okay venting aside real talk

From what I can gather from here and everywhere else and correct me if I'm wrong

Is A) we get lucky and either slow the curve or manage to get this under control with extreme measures we are trying to get started

B) This may as some have stated fizzle out I believe some viruses have done that before but it's looking unlikely

C) Everything we are doing now we should have down already and were late to the game

If option C and it's out in the wild were screwed on containment unless the extreme measures in option A are implemented combined with some lessons learned from China and Italy on ramping up extra hospitals (if we can find the staff) then it might get contained otherwise it's going to run its course

Extra insight I've seen several articles were it's looking like a LOT of young people just feel it's not going to affect them so they don't give a sh@$! Which really is not going to help with option A.

So in a nutshell were going to have to implement option A we have too the alternative is just unthinkable to gamble with people's lives to me is just morally and spiritually wrong and we won't really know for sure we're this puts us until they are saying around August correct?

Personally I feel we already f@$!ed up containment so I'm praying for option A to work. not just to stop the curve but to stop the hysteria it's still ridiculous the reaction some people are having

The problem with modern society in general is that you can be sure they will react can you trust them to react in the right way? Big question right now that's a big question

And the press is still ridiculous for every accurate article out there theres 3 more just spouting off nonsense. A senator the other day I won't go into full details just spouted off some horrible statement blaming this all on China due to there eating animals? Dude we eat animals the next virus might come from us if that's the case. And just the blaming of Trump and this and that like I said when I vented I'm sick of that type of press just sick of it

The time to blame is gone long gone politics all that its too late for any of that it's in the country and we either work together rationally or suffer the consequences

Anyway that's my take on everybody's feedback and what I can get from the news in and out of America when you dig past all the political and idiotic b.s.
Pretty much. We need to contain as much as we can. People are selfish as hell and don't want their lifestyle to change. I say to them "suck it up buttercup".
 
KEW

KEW

Audioholic Overlord
Dunno. In common fiction: where do you end up if you did a hole all the way through the Earth. Dig a hole to... somewhere...
I think you can dig up, but you just don't want to do it too quickly! :eek:
 
Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Warlord
Interesting article here on blood type vs susceptibility of catching Covid-19 (note that it is not yet peer reviewed:
Among a total of 2,173 patients COVID-19 patients in 3 hospitals in Wuhan or Shenzhen, does the % of COVID-19 patients resemble or differ from the normal distribution of blood types in the local population? If they differ, is the statistical significance enough to make a case for different susceptibility?
Blood Type% of Normal
Population
% of COVID-19
Patients in hospitals
A31%38%
B24%34%
AB9%10%
O34%25%

At an initial glance, just to my eye, with no further statistical analyses, I'd say no. These differences might be seen only because the patient population wasn't large enough or uniform enough to make any conclusions. However, I could be wrong, and there is a lot about this manuscript that I don't know.

My main criticism would be that this approach takes data from 2,173 different patients.
  • Did they all come from a narrowly defined patient population (such as males between the age of 60-71, who were admitted to the hospital only because of CIVID-19 infection, without other medical complications that may have affected their getting admitted to the hospital)?
  • Did the authors define a more uniform 'patient population' to include in the study, in advance, while rejecting other patients from the statistical analysis because they were not part of the defined patient population?
  • What statistical methods of analysis were used? Were they suitable methods, or were other more suitable methods not used?
Although this sounds like extreme nit-picking, exactly how well the patient population is defined matters greatly to clinical trials & studies where the final call comes down to statistical analysis.
 
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ski2xblack

ski2xblack

Audioholic Samurai
Okay venting aside real talk

From what I can gather from here and everywhere else and correct me if I'm wrong

Is A) we get lucky and either slow the curve or manage to get this under control with extreme measures we are trying to get started

B) This may as some have stated fizzle out I believe some viruses have done that before but it's looking unlikely

C) Everything we are doing now we should have down already and were late to the game

If option C and it's out in the wild were screwed on containment unless the extreme measures in option A are implemented combined with some lessons learned from China and Italy on ramping up extra hospitals (if we can find the staff) then it might get contained otherwise it's going to run its course

Extra insight I've seen several articles were it's looking like a LOT of young people just feel it's not going to affect them so they don't give a sh@$! Which really is not going to help with option A.

So in a nutshell were going to have to implement option A we have too the alternative is just unthinkable to gamble with people's lives to me is just morally and spiritually wrong and we won't really know for sure we're this puts us until they are saying around August correct?

Personally I feel we already f@$!ed up containment so I'm praying for option A to work. not just to stop the curve but to stop the hysteria it's still ridiculous the reaction some people are having

The problem with modern society in general is that you can be sure they will react can you trust them to react in the right way? Big question right now that's a big question

And the press is still ridiculous for every accurate article out there theres 3 more just spouting off nonsense. A senator the other day I won't go into full details just spouted off some horrible statement blaming this all on China due to there eating animals? Dude we eat animals the next virus might come from us if that's the case. And just the blaming of Trump and this and that like I said when I vented I'm sick of that type of press just sick of it

The time to blame is gone long gone politics all that its too late for any of that it's in the country and we either work together rationally or suffer the consequences

Anyway that's my take on everybody's feedback and what I can get from the news in and out of America when you dig past all the political and idiotic b.s.
It's option C. A friend was called in today, he did nine intubations. It's on, folks.
 

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