Coronavirus

[Matthew J Poes]

I would think anthrax being dry would stay in the air and spread further for longer time than virus that needs liquid droplets with more mass to sink, no? And if that droplet evaporates?

Yes exactly. They consider aerosolization and dry air transmission as the same category in that article, but my understanding is that dry can spread farther. I'm not really an expert in this, my expertise lies in study design and human behavior. So I'm telling only what I've been told by colleagues who are experts. The mentality has largely been that this fine difference doesn't matter in terms of a response. a sneeze or cough can still spread it out 6+ feet, so the difference is more in terms of how long it stays aloft. The claim seems to be that it is ranging for COVID-19 from 3-9 hours. That would mean social distancing strategies are needed.

From a human behavior standpoint, I hope its obvious why you want to just assume that everything is contaminated. We have no way of knowing. and with the virus able to spread 6+ feet, live for 3+ hours, and be caught easily, it's safest to tell people to assume every surface and piece of air in a public space could be contaminated. That you need to wash your hands a lot and avoid touching your face for these reasons. Try not to go out more than you have to because its a risk. It's a risk because if we don't stem the spread it will overwhelm our medical systems. If that happens, COVID-19 is the least of our worries. We need to work to make this manageable. Right now it is manageable but its quickly heading into the unmanageable category. It's hard to impart that need without sparking panic. We don't need to panic, we just need act.

 

[shadyJ]

We don't need to panic, we just need act.

But blind panic is so much more fun!

 

[herbu]

One of the networks, I think maybe ABC, had an ER Doc talking about how busy their hospital is. Interesting that he said they're being overwhelmed by an, "unprecedented number of people coming in with flu-like symptoms". His particular hospital had seen no Corona, and he never mentioned any cases of Corona, yet they were overwhelmed.

So again, I think this is being overblown by the media. Sure, precautions are prudent. Preparations are wise. But geez...

 

[Verdinut]

I’m not happy to hear all bars and restaurants are ordered by the governor to be closing here in WA state. I guess I’ll need to stock up on beer.

In the province of Quebec, the restaurants remain open, but are restricted to a maximum of 50% of the seating capacity at any time, to decrease proximity between individuals. In my opinion, that is a smart decision as eating is part of our daily needs wheras bars are not.

 

[Swerd]

… he never mentioned any cases of Corona, yet they were overwhelmed.

When I read that, I couldn't help wondering if those were cases Corona Extra or Corona Light.

 

[panteragstk]

One of the networks, I think maybe ABC, had an ER Doc talking about how busy their hospital is. Interesting that he said they're being overwhelmed by an, "unprecedented number of people coming in with flu-like symptoms". His particular hospital had seen no Corona, and he never mentioned any cases of Corona, yet they were overwhelmed.

So again, I think this is being overblown by the media. Sure, precautions are prudent. Preparations are wise. But geez...

You're right and you're not.

I think a lot of what the media is saying is having negative consequences. Just look at the craziness at the stores.

However, people with flu-like symptoms are going to be scared and want to get tested just due to the nature of this thing. I get it, but freaking out isn't going to help. There are more than one ways to differentiate between corona and flu, but people have knee jerk reactions that probably aren't helping them.

So while yes, a LOT of this is overblown by the media it would be much more helpful if they could just tell people what the smartest thing to do is, but when you have people on the "news" saying that this whole thing is a plot to get rid of Trump, that's just spreading misinformation and is causing people to think this is all a hoax. It isn't.

I'm not trying to get political in any way here, but taking something as serious as this could end up being for our country and trying to spin it for a political agenda just because loyal viewers are scared is just plain wrong.

The same can be said of the "news" organizations that are saying this isn't a big deal and people shouldn't worry. Maybe worry a bit, be smart about what you do, but don't go crazy to the point you're potentially causing others harm. If people would have just shopped like they normally do, or at least took the time to see what they'd need for two weeks, we wouldn't have the shortages in stores we have.

It's just not that complicated. Didn't mean to rant, but it happens. Sorry.

 

[panteragstk]

When I read that, I couldn't help wondering if those were cases Corona Extra or Corona Light.

"why are people bringing beer to the hospital?"

 

[j_garcia]

AND additional panic in our area today. Our area issued shelter in place for all local counties. People went insane trying to buy food as if stores would be closed or something. It was explicitly communicated that all stores would remain open. The irrational panic is almost as bad as the virus.

Weeks ago when people started panic buying TP, I bought ammo

 

[TLS Guy]

Well, remember, I'm an intervention scientist, not a doctor or public health expert. I know what I'm told by the experts.

As I understand it, Measles, Mumps, and Smallpox all had their epidemic peaks long before modern medical science. Most of these viruses had their initial peaks 100's of years ago. So when you say you don't remember people freaking out like this, that is because you weren't alive during their epidemic phase. The case curve flattened naturally as people died out and natural immunity built up. But certainly they all remained serious viruses with serious implications until vaccines were created. When worldwide cases spiked in modern times, there was a panicked reaction to a point, but it was never like this situation either.

Now Mumps and Smallpox actually have a similar R0 value to the current predicted value for COVID-19, its not much more contagious, its about the same. Those were devastating viruses (especially Smallpox) so I think there was panic during their peaks.

Another thing to keep in mind, developed parts of the world haven't been inundated by these viruses you mention in modern times. They were at a steady state of cases prior to immunizations and as a result the medical system was sufficient to address the current norm. Our current medical system isn't set up for COVID-19. Immunizations have been highly effective, nearly eradicating those diseases. Because of a drop in immunization rates lately we are seeing a small rise in measles and one of the biggest problems we have is that most doctors don't recognize it. They've never seen a case. Measles hasn't been a big problem since the 80's worldwide, and since the 60's-70's in the USA.

This is a young country with little sense of history. The Bubonic Plague of 1347 is still well remembered in Europe. At least in my day every child at school new all the grizzly details. A very large percentage of the population of Europe was wiped out. Ring a Ring of roses nursery rhyme dates from that epidemic. Interestingly this epidemic also started in China. It started in 1331. Due to the pace of life then it took until 1343 to reach the Crimea and a further four years to reach England. It is thought that it killed 30% of the population of Europe.

There were other outbreaks, but a big one involved London, in 1665. It ended with the Great Fire of London in 1666.
Interestingly it only involved London and its suburbs. That is how Gravesend in Kent got its name. It is about 20 miles from the center of London.

This history is well part of the oral tradition of British Life. I have a feeling our current problems will be long remembered.

Things are picking up now and I suspect that restrictions will ratchet up over the next 7 to 10 days, as they are elsewhere. France is now locked down and the UK edging that way.

In Italy it is now official that those over 80 and those at high risk due to underlying disease will not even be admitted to hospital.

There was an incredible scene that was hard to watch on BBC News last night from Madrid.

There was an older lady sitting on a road side bench with a worried family watching on. She had just been refused treatment at a hospital and told to go home. I doubt she made it home. To me she is someone under normal circumstances that I suspect I would have intubated immediately and placed on the ventilator. The poor woman looked in extremis to me.

I really hope we don't have to witness events like that here.

 

[mtrycrafts]

But blind panic is so much more fun!

Is that like a bumper car ride?

 

[mtrycrafts]

When I read that, I couldn't help wondering if those were cases Corona Extra or Corona Light.

Now if that was dark, I'd go for it.

 

[mtrycrafts]

"why are people bringing beer to the hospital?"

It kills viruses? Tastes good?

 

[shadyJ]

Things are picking up now and I suspect that restrictions will ratchet up over the next 7 to 10 days, as they are elsewhere. France is now locked down and the UK edging that way.

How would you characterize England government's response to COVID-19 vs the United States government response? I heard a conversation between some English guys who were pretty bitter and they didn't feel the British government was taking it seriously enough.

 

[Swerd]

As I understand it, Measles, Mumps, and Smallpox all had their epidemic peaks long before modern medical science. Most of these viruses had their initial peaks 100's of years ago. So when you say you don't remember people freaking out like this, that is because you weren't alive during their epidemic phase. The case curve flattened naturally as people died out and natural immunity built up. But certainly they all remained serious viruses with serious implications until vaccines were created. When worldwide cases spiked in modern times, there was a panicked reaction to a point, but it was never like this situation either.

Now Mumps and Smallpox actually have a similar R0 value to the current predicted value for COVID-19, its not much more contagious, its about the same. Those were devastating viruses (especially Smallpox) so I think there was panic during their peaks.

Another thing to keep in mind, developed parts of the world haven't been inundated by these viruses you mention in modern times. They were at a steady state of cases prior to immunizations and as a result the medical system was sufficient to address the current norm. Our current medical system isn't set up for COVID-19. Immunizations have been highly effective, nearly eradicating those diseases. Because of a drop in immunization rates lately we are seeing a small rise in measles and one of the biggest problems we have is that most doctors don't recognize it. They've never seen a case. Measles hasn't been a big problem since the 80's worldwide, and since the 60's-70's in the USA.

This is a young country with little sense of history. The Bubonic Plague of 1347 is still well remembered in Europe …

Here is some more recent and well documented history of measles in the US. It shows the dramatic results when the vaccine became available.

It's worth remembering that before the MMR vaccine became available, measles resulted in 2.6 million deaths per year, worldwide. In the USA, before the vaccine, there were 200,000 to 700,00 cases of measles per year.

The benefit of measles vaccination in preventing illness, disability, and death has been well documented. The first 20 years of licensed measles vaccination in the US prevented an estimated 52 million cases of the disease, 17,400 cases of intellectual disability, and 5,200 deaths.

I guess the present COVID-19 pandemic resembles what it might have been like in the New World for native populations after the European infectious diseases were first introduced, wiping out most of those people.

 

[TLS Guy]

Here is some more recent and well documented history of measles in the US. It shows the dramatic results when the vaccine became available.
View attachment 34706

It's worth remembering that before the MMR vaccine became available, measles resulted in 2.6 million deaths per year, worldwide. In the USA, before the vaccine, there were 200,000 to 700,00 cases of measles per year.

The benefit of measles vaccination in preventing illness, disability, and death has been well documented. The first 20 years of licensed measles vaccination in the US prevented an estimated 52 million cases of the disease, 17,400 cases of intellectual disability, and 5,200 deaths.

I guess the present COVID-19 pandemic resembles what it might have been like in the New World for native populations after the European infectious diseases were first introduced, wiping out most of those people.

Vaccination has a long history. Small pox epidemics used to take a huge toll on communities. It took a terrible toll on Native American populations and wiped out the Mandan Indians of North Dakota.

In 1796 an English physician, Dr Bruce Jenner had noted that you only got small pox once. He reasoned that Cowpox was a milder form of small pox.

So he did and experiment that any ethics committee would nix now and forbid.

On May 14, 1796, Jenner took fluid from a cowpox blister and scratched it into the skin of James Phipps, an eight-year-old boy. A single blister rose up on the spot, but James soon recovered. On July 1, Jenner inoculated the boy again, this time with smallpox matter, and no disease developed. The vaccine was a success.

Vaccination against small pox spread widely and more sophisticated vaccines eliminated it. As a young child I was immunized with cowpox and have the scar on my upper left arm to prove it. The science of immunology was born with Dr Jenner being the first immunologist.

The controlled trial goes back longer than you think. Scurvy at sea was a huge problem. In 1747 the Royal Navy charged a young naval surgeon to research a cure. This is regarded as the first example of careful didactic research curing a disease.

He hypothesised correctly that the disease was a nutritional deficiency.. So he did controlled trials starting a month out to sea, and before scurvy usually became manifest. He did a controlled trial of various food and liquid additives. He found only the sailors consuming lemon juice remained free of scurvy. He noted the more acidic the better and that limes were even more effective, He named the ingredient ascorbic acid, which we now know as vitamin C. So the Royal Navy made consumption of lime juice daily mandatory. The French thought this a huge joke and labelled the English sailors Limeys. However the sailors of the Royal Navy were healthy and the French diseased. This is widely considered the main reason the Royal Navy could get the upper hand over the French and Spanish navies. It is widely considered that this piece of research resulted in giving England the empire on which the sun never set.

Calling and Englishman a Limey has come to be regarded as a term of abuse. Personally I have never regarded it as such, but a mark of distinction and honor. This was really the first use of a clinical trial to bring a cure to a terrible and serious disease.

 

[TLS Guy]

How would you characterize England government's response to COVID-19 vs the United States government response? I heard a conversation between some English guys who were pretty bitter and they didn't feel the British government was taking it seriously enough.

I think it is a highly problematic response. Professor Whitty and others are very worried this crisis will have no end unless herd immunity is built up. Herd immunity is only effective if at least 70% of a population are immune.

So they have taken the view that measures to flatten the curve should not be over extreme. However after seeing what has happened in Italy and now Spain. Some degree of panic is setting in. Stricter measures were introduced today, and I think the UK is inching towards total lock down. I fear it may be too late and they have walked into disaster.

In Minnesota on the other hand very aggressive measures were taken yesterday and even more aggressive measures taken today. I think they are probably the most aggressive measures taken in a western nation at this stage of spread. We are actually very close to lock down now. The state is pretty much shut down except for essential services, first responders and food distribution. Bars, schools and restaurants are now closed, No assemblies greater than 50 with 6 ft spacing. Assembly of more than 10 individuals strongly discouraged. The governor hinted at even stronger measures to come and quickly today.

We know these measures are effective in the short term. The problem is that these measures will need to be kept in place until a July/August time frame. The unanswered question is what happens when the measures are withdrawn and there is no herd immunity.

Professor Whiitty spoke well about this at BOJO's news conference in 10 Downing Street today. His worry is that restrictive measures will have to be released when spread is controlled. He thought that would be a three to four month time frame. Then he is worried the cycle will repeat until a vaccine is available and that time frame is uncertain. He was honest about the fact that we do not know how long immunity to this virus will last, He pointed out as I have that this is very variable among viruses. He warned on national TV, that if immunity is short lived no vaccine is likely to be effective. So if the world is condemned to repeated episodes of infection, like Noro virus for instance, we are in big trouble because of how infectious it is and the incidence of critical illness and fatalities.

This is a huge issue as business confidence will not return until this is in the rear view mirror and fading. If it continues to tail gate and hit us in the rear end, that will have very serious consequences for the whole world.

 

[jeanrhall]

The pace at which this is spreading is very serious

 

[Ponzio]

Vaccination has a long history. Small pox epidemics used to take a huge toll on communities.

Personally I have never regarded it as such, but a mark of distinction and honor.

I'm literally in the middle of reading a biography of Dr. Benjamin Rush right now, who after attending medical school in Scotland (University of Edinburgh) before returning to the US, was a big proponent of the smallpox vaccination. John Adams was so impressed by the good doctor that not only did he submit to it, he had his whole family inoculated, and recommended that his fellow 'rebels' follow suit.

Aye! I too take pride in what some might view as an unsightly mark on my upper left arm; it looks like two quarters were branded on me. My parents had me vaccinated in Sicily and then the US immigration services gave me another dosage when we landed in NYC.

I'm still cornfused by the anti-vaxxer's in this country. There's this complete amnesia of the devastating effects of some diseases in this country that leaves me baffled.

 

[herbu]

a LOT of this is overblown by the media... you have people on the "news" saying that this whole thing is a plot to get rid of Trump

So, which came first... the chicken or the egg?

I think the media is blowing this up for two reasons:
1) Ratings
2) An opportunity to poke Trump. Before this virus, the Left/media had nothing to poke Trump leading up to the election. Yeh, I know some will say, "Oh, we had this and that to poke him". But it was just fluff. The huge majority of measurable indicators were positive. And your top candidate is a joke. All you really had was that you didn't like him. So while I'm not saying libs want this virus or want people to get it, Corona is an answered prayer to libs looking for something to key on during the election. And they are certainly taking advantage of it. Now they can condemn every action he takes, and no one can really prove them wrong.

 

[Ponzio]

Now they can condemn every action he takes, and no one can really prove them wrong.

So true.